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Grand National 2026

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  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 7
    The sire of runaway Irish GN winner Soldier In Milan is Soldier Of Fortune.

    Very interestingly (at least to me), Soldier Of Fortune has something in common with these sires of Aintree GN winners.

    Maresca Sorrento (Pineau De Re)
    Authorized (Tiger Roll & I Am Maximus)
    Yeats (Noble Yeats)
    Jeremy (Corach Rambler)

    They are all:
    1. descendants of Northern Dancer AND
    2. have Wild Risk somewhere in their damsire's sire

    43 Aintree GN runners since 2014 have been sired by a stallion that was both a descendant of Northern Dancer AND had Wild Risk in their damsire's sire.
    That's 10.2 % of GN runners.
    They produced 6 of the 11 winners (54.5% = x 5.34 outperformance of representation)

    To strip out Tiger’s double win, in terms of individual horses, 32 different horses by such a sire have run in 1 or more GNs since 2014. That’s 9.9% of the 324 different horses to have done so.
    They account for 5 of the 10 different GN winners, an outperformance factor of x 5.06

    The only other such sires to have had GN runners since 2014:

    Day Flight (1 runner)
    Gold Well (6 runners [5 horses], incl Galvin GN4th)
    Mahler (7 runners [7 horses], incl The Big Dog GN5th)
    Winged Love (5 runners [3 horses], incl Bless The Wings GN3rd)

    So, of 8 different sires matching the pedigree spec, 50% of them have produced 1+ GN winner and only 1 (with just 1 GN runner) has failed to produce a frame-maker.

    This combination of Northern Dancer (topline) and Wild Risk (damsire’s sire) may just be thought a statistical quirk BUT it reflects the genetic synergies of Nearco’s descendants with Wild Risk specifically referred to in a famous book “Designing Speed In The Racehorse” by a breeding expert Ken McLean in 2005. 


    2026 GN runners with a sire that have this pedigree spec:

    I Am Maximus (Authorized)
    Spanish Harlem (Spanish Moon – first rep)
    The Real Whacker (Mahler)
    Quai De Bourbon (Ivanhowe – first rep))
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    Indeed, weather has messed things up.

    PM, how about 'Percy Legless', I seriously hope he won't suddenly show up front...
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    StarryNight said:
    Indeed, weather has messed things up.

    PM, how about 'Percy Legless', I seriously hope he won't suddenly show up front...
    Rules some out but some will love it.
    I didn't fancy Perceval last year, when he had decent ground, and I don't this.
    On the plus side, his sire (a Northern Dancer descendant) won a 12f G1 and his 3rd and 4th dams both won the Yorkshire Oaks (12f), but:
    - no Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree
    - absolutely no linebreeding of note
    - modest array of damsires
    Not for me.

  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    Thank you, I'm over-thinking.  
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    StarryNight said:
    Thank you, I'm over-thinking.  
    Remember The Enabler   :D
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 7
    Okeedokee - it's that time again.

    THE BLUFFERS GUIDE - 2 reasons why every horse in the GN is either NAILED ON to win or has NO CHANCE, depending on what pompous prick you're aiming to put in their place at the pub:

    Part 1:

    I AM MAXIMUS

    Nailed On:
    • Very similar pedigree to Tiger Roll (Sire Authorized and influential Saddlers Wells was both their paternal and maternal great-grandfather), the only other multiple GN winner since Red Rum
    • Has had much better campaign this season than last when he was GN 2nd (would have won the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Christmas if the winner hadn't got away with interference - won a Grade 1 earlier in his 2024 GN-winning season)
    No Chance:
    • No topweight has won the GN in 52 years
    • Ground will be too quick, like last year

    NICK ROCKETT

    Nailed on:
    • Had been off track for 346 days after his GN win last year when 3rd in recent race at Down Royal. ALL 4 TIMES he's returned from a 237+ day break he's WON the 2nd race after his return.
    • ....... er that's it
    No Chance:
    • No horse that had had only 1 prior run in the season has won the GN for at least 38 years 
    • He'll carry 11.11 - no horse has won carrying more than 11.09 in 52 years

    BANBRIDGE

    Nailed On:
    • He's likely to stay the trip better than assumed - closely related to winner of 4.25m Midlands National (Major Malarkey) and his damsire Presenting, as sire or damsire, has produced a GN winner (Ballabriggs), runner up (Pleasant Company) and 3rd (Rathvinden). As a Damsire, his 2nd damsire Flemensfirth has 2 GN winners to his credit (Noble Yeats and Nick Rockett) 
    • 1 from 1 at Aintree, having won with the sun on his back at the 2023 GN meeting
    No Chance:
    • Never placed or finished closer than 43L in 3 attempts at further than 3m
    • He'll carry 11.11 - no horse has won carrying more than 11.09 in 52 years

    GRANGECLARE WEST

    Nailed On:
    • 3L 3rd last year and, but for a mistake at the last, he would have won it - sectional times show he was the fastest finishing, covering last furlong quicker than any other runner including the winner. 
    • Winner of February's Bobbyjo Chase. Both previous winners of the Bobbyjo (I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett) went on to win that season's GN 
    No Chance
    • No previously placed horse has won the GN in 22 years and even then (Amberleigh House) it was a gift, as the leader's (Clan Royal) jockey dropped his whip, costing him the race
    • As a son of Presenting, he's not descended from Northern Dancer - 12/12 GN winners since 2013 had Northern Dancer in their "topline" (from 58% of all runners)

    GERRI COLOMBE

    Nailed On:
    • Loves Spring Ground (x5 wins or near-misses [2nd by <4L] from 5 chases from mid-March to mid-April, compared to 4 from 8 at other times of the season)
    • Loves Aintree (2 from 2), having won Grade 1 chases at both the 2024 and 2025 GN Meetings
    No Chance:
    • Sire Saddler Maker has had a paltry 1 winner from 27 of his offspring to run at 31f+ (0 wins and 0 places from 6 to run in a GN)
    • He'll carry 11.10 - no horse has won carrying more than 11.09 in 52 years

    HAITI COULEURS

    Nailed On:
    • Has had 9 chases (last 4 GN winners also <10 chases) but strike rate of 66% (6 wins) is superior to any GN winner for at least 38 years (next best Corach Rambler's 57% and Tiger Roll's 56% in 2019)
    • Never beaten in 3 chases at 29f+, including at the furthest attempted (30.5f) when making all in the Welsh GN despite carrying topweight of 11.13 on quick ground
    No Chance:
    • No Welsh-trained horse has won the GN since Kirkland in 1905 (the only one to do so in 177 runnings of the race)
    • Has too high a handicap mark for a horse that PU'd in both Grade 1 attempts - will be 22lbs worse off with Quai De Bourbon than when beating him by 10L in the Irish GN a year ago  

    TBC .....
  • RobinKeepsBobbin
    RobinKeepsBobbin Posts: 170
    I am in a state of shock from which i might never recover. Many years ago i regularly bought the Racing and Football Outlook. In the days when Figaro gave all sorts of complicated lottery perms that gave a variety of guarantees like pick 10 numbers and if any six came up you would win a minimum of third prize. I haven't bought it for years but today i saw it in Sainsbury's and thought i would get it for the Grand National. The price £6.90. I couldn't believe it. Surely nobody would pay that. I'm sure it was about 35p in the good old days.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    RobinKeepsBobbin said:
    I am in a state of shock from which i might never recover. Many years ago i regularly bought the Racing and Football Outlook. In the days when Figaro gave all sorts of complicated lottery perms that gave a variety of guarantees like pick 10 numbers and if any six came up you would win a minimum of third prize. I haven't bought it for years but today i saw it in Sainsbury's and thought i would get it for the Grand National. The price £6.90. I couldn't believe it. Surely nobody would pay that. I'm sure it was about 35p in the good old days.
    Cripes. In my good old days it would've been 1/- 
    You could always go to Waitrose and just nick it - seems to be de rigueur. 
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Okeedokee - it's that time again.

    THE BLUFFERS GUIDE - 2 reasons why every horse in the GN is either NAILED ON to win or has NO CHANCE, depending on what pompous prick you're aiming to put in their place at the pub:



    NICK ROCKETT

    Nailed on:
    • Had been off track for 346 days after his GN win last year when 3rd in recent race at Down Royal. ALL 4 TIMES he's returned from a 237+ day break he's WON the 2nd race after his return.
    • ....... er that's it

    Thank you, I've been waiting impatiently for this!  :D 

    Nick Rockett's another plus - he's Mullins' horse, so possibly hiding a sudden surprise (albeit it could be a negative one!)
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    StarryNight said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Okeedokee - it's that time again.

    THE BLUFFERS GUIDE - 2 reasons why every horse in the GN is either NAILED ON to win or has NO CHANCE, depending on what pompous prick you're aiming to put in their place at the pub:



    NICK ROCKETT

    Nailed on:
    • Had been off track for 346 days after his GN win last year when 3rd in recent race at Down Royal. ALL 4 TIMES he's returned from a 237+ day break he's WON the 2nd race after his return.
    • ....... er that's it

    Thank you, I've been waiting impatiently for this!  :D 

    Nick Rockett's another plus - he's Mullins' horse, so possibly hiding a sudden surprise (albeit it could be a negative one!)
    Quite a natty stat that eh?

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  • CafcSteve
    CafcSteve Posts: 980
    JP reveals that Townend will ride I Am Maximus.

    Cobden likely to ride Perceval Legallios.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8
    Guys, I'm sorry.
    I just did a fucking huge section of the Bluffers Guide which, despite me Saving it as a Draft multiple times has been lost in the ether - I'm pretty sure down to the CL server   :s
    2.5 hours wasted. I'm really sorry but I can't do it all again.

    PS I may have another go if/when I've got more time
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    edited April 8
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Guys, I'm sorry.
    I just did a fucking huge section of the Bluffers Guide which, despite me Saving it as a Draft multiple times has been lost in the ether - I'm pretty sure down to the CL server   :s
    2.5 hours wasted. I'm really sorry but I can't do it all again.

    PS I may have another go if/when I've got more time
    Sorry to hear, PM. Computers - annoying things ( I know, I'm IT)
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    edited April 8
    CafcSteve said:
    JP reveals that Townend will ride I Am Maximus.

    Cobden likely to ride Perceval Legallios.
    Ha!! Percy again. Fine, I'll put a small penny on him as well, sigh.
  • Big_Bob
    Big_Bob Posts: 1,598
    No shocks in the confirmations.

    SPILLANE'S TOWER left in for now but due to run in tomorrow's Grade 1.

    I wonder if they are tempted by the National considering the prospect of wetter/softer conditions following rain on Friday/Saturday.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8
    Big_Bob said:
    No shocks in the confirmations.

    SPILLANE'S TOWER left in for now but due to run in tomorrow's Grade 1.

    I wonder if they are tempted by the National considering the prospect of wetter/softer conditions following rain on Friday/Saturday.
    Ground could be softer on Saturday than Thursday but the forecast amounts aren't huge.

    Bear in mind they've been applying up to 8-10mm a day when watering. The forecast is for:

    Thurs 1.2mm
    Frid 6.3mm
    Sat 1mm

    I think we're still looking at officially GS but they might feel it worth the wait for Spillanes.

    As of 8am this morning, all courses were GS.

    "Watering (In Progress). Watered last Thursday (8-10mm), Friday (5-6mm), Sat morning (5-6mm), Mon (8-10mm), Tues (8-10mm). 6-8mm being applied Wednesday to maintain through warm day."
     
  • Big_Bob
    Big_Bob Posts: 1,598
    I imagine the ground will be similar tomorrow (maybe even touch firmer) as it was on Gold Cup day and they pulled him from that on the day due to the ground.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8
    Forget the last post - here are the Mullins jockies
    Very happy to have Danny on the Champ and pleased with James Bowen on HCH (gave Holloway Queen a peach of a ride in the NH Chase, as he did Potters Corner in the Midlands Nat and Raze De Maree in the Welsh GN).
    Brian Hayes was giving Spanish Harlem a nice ride in touch (where he needs to be) when carried out in the Scottish GN last year.
    No excuses for any of them re jocks.

    I Am Maximus Paul Townend
    Nick Rockett Tom Bellamy
    Grangeclare West Patrick Mullins
    Spanish Harlem Brian Hayes
    Lecky Watson Sean O'Keeffe
    Champ Kiely Danny Mullins
    High Class Hero James Bowen
    Captain Cody Jonathan Burke
    Quai De Bourbon Donagh Meyler


  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8

    Okeedokee, nothing withdrawn at Declarations today, many jockey bookings known and the weather forecast showing rain during the meeting and on raceday but nothing torrential, I’m working on the going being officially Good-to-Soft and riding a touch slower than last year, which was the quickest of the last 3 renewals.

    My model’s top rated runners and my selections in light of the likely going:


    BEST WINNING PROFILES:

    ·         I Am Maximus (nap)

    ·         High Class Hero 

    ·         Champ Kiely


    BEST PLACE PROFILES (not much between these - could be any order):

    ·         Gorgeous Tom (borderline Winning potential)

    ·         Top Of The Bill

    ·         Spanish Harlem

    ·         Final Orders


    All of these backed e/w.
    As last year, will try to sniff out some interesting Specials and/or Top 8/10 Finishes
  • Big_Bob
    Big_Bob Posts: 1,598
    Thought it interesting Danny Mullins on Champ Kiely considering the odds would have CK as the outsider of Willie's 9. Danny must be third choice for the stable so surprised he passed up Nick Rockett etc among others. A couple made sense I.E Spanish Harlem with Hayes on board 
    Must be a real negative for Nick Rockett but hardly surprising considering his prep.
    I think Sean Flanagan is a good booking for Gorgeous Tom too.

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  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,509
    Just read that I Am Maximus has been declared to run in cheekpieces. 
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8
    Starinnaddick said:
    Just read that I Am Maximus has been declared to run in cheekpieces. 
    Ran once in Cheekpieces before - makes sense.
    Ground is going to be similar to last year and he got caught a little too far back by the 2nd Canal Turn. had to work hard (doing too much maybe) to get on terms by 2 out.
    Pieces should keep him a tad more focussed and may be a touch closer to the action.
  • Big_Bob
    Big_Bob Posts: 1,598
    Cheekpieces worked great for Lossiemouth in the C Hurdle
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 8
    Evening guys.
    Not a great day today - a family medical emergency occurred this pm (not life threatening but not great) means I'll be a bit limited in availability.
    If anyone wants my model's take on a runner, let me know and I'll happily give you a summary.
    Will also scan the Specials for anything tasty.
    Hope everyone who wanted to got on Champ Kiely at 80s. Now into best price 28s with Danny Mullins choosing to ride him. I know it was the female angle but it slightly smacks of Minella Times to me when Rachel chose to ride him - instantly cut from a silly price just on the jock.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    edited April 9
    Rewatching a few races while sat at A&E and it strikes me that, if you fancy Panic Attack, you really have to fancy GORGEOUS TOM at twice the price (25/1).

    Beaten by her by 11L in the Ladbrokes GC BUT:
    1. shambolic start left GT about 10L behind the field
    2. he was giving her 15 lbs at Newbury but on Saturday will concede only 4lbs
    3. whereas PA was slowing at the finish of the Ladbrokes GC, despite having to make up the ground lost at the start GT was the only one of the first 4 accelerating, running the last furling in 14.78 secs (quicker than his penultimate furlong and quicker than the winner's average speed for the race of 15.43 secs per furlong).
    He clearly is going to be better over further.

    Confirmed by his PEDIGREE, which is tailor-made to make the frame in a GN, being closely related to 3 horses to run in a GN, all of them making the frame EVERY TIME:
    • Cappa Bleu – 4th in 2012 and 2nd in 2013
    • Double Seven – 3rd in 2014
    • Walk In The Mill – 4th in 2019
    He and these above were also closely related to Cahervillahow who finished 2nd in the void GN.
     
  • Big_Bob
    Big_Bob Posts: 1,598
    Best wishes to you and your family Peanuts.
  • StarryNight
    StarryNight Posts: 125
    edited April 9
    Hope all goes well with health, PM. Take care and don't worry about here.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 7,051
    Big_Bob said:
    Best wishes to you and your family Peanuts.
    Cheers @Big_Bob
    Mrs Molloy had a nasty fall coming back from London yesterday - fractured jaw.
    Will have to be wired up no doubt.
    Difficult to eat, difficult to talk ………. Yes, I’m thinking the same  ;)
  • CHG
    CHG Posts: 4,540
    Wish Mrs Malloy all the best Peanuts..
  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 27,465
    all the best to your wife Peanuts

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