Grand National 2026

CafcSteve said:

What about the Scottish National?

Absolutely. Got my eye on a couple but will take a proper look when the recent Irish and Aintree GN runners have come out or not and there's a better handle on weights.

So, albeit a two-time winner, another win for the mitochondrial DNA N2a and a continuing stark contrast with the performance of the L2b1 haplogroup (represented by Beauport and Captain Cody in yesterday's race)

The updated stats for all 13 GNs since the watershed changes (compared to 1988~2012, ex the Red Marauder GN):


N2a: 61 runners (12.3%) - 5 wins (x 3.38 outperformance) vs x 1.11 (3 wins - 3 horses)

On an individual horse basis: 47 horses - 4 winners, 6 others placing 2~5 (21.28% won or placed at least once) vs 16.25%


L2b1 / L2b1a: 40 runners (8.1%) - 0 wins vs x 2.42 (6 wins - 6 horses)

On an individual horse basis: 36 horses - 0 winners, 0 placing 2~5 vs 20.9% of them won or placed at least once


By the way, all of those N2a winners have come from 2016 onwards, so the outperformance would look even stronger starting from 2015 (arguably the first true modern GN)


While the GN remains a unique steeplechase, there appears to have been a change in the physiological type of horses favoured by the modern GN.
It's not a hurdle race but if you watch an old GN and compare the style of jumping and running - the more stop-start nature compared to today - it seems reasonable to hypothesise that a different pattern of energy demand is placed upon a runner in a modern GN, unlike that in most (perhaps all) other conventional long-distance steeplechases.  

The N2a mtDNA of most of Family 1 originate from the Barb (i.e. from the Barbary Coast), renowned for its stamina, speed and hardiness. The mtDNA of the L2b1 haplogroup originates from the Turk, renowned for its stamina, courage and agility, hence it's famed use as a "charger" in battles, where all those attributes, including the ability to negotiate large and awkward obstacles and terrain, were at a premium - sounds like a typical old-style GN to me.

Interestingly, an analysis of winners of the Ascot Gold Cup since 1988 shows a similar disparity of performance by mtDNA:

N2a (17% of runners) x 1.55 winning outperformance / 13.5% of different horses winning
L2b1 / L2b1a (11.2%) x 0.47 / 8.7% of different horses winning.


Of course, having N2a is not sufficient or a necessary condition for a modern GN winner. But perhaps it's one of the factors that's worth considering when trying to solve the perennial riddle of the Grand National.

bobmunro said:

I backed your top three, Peanuts - Max on the nose at 7/1, and EW both High Class Hero 66/1 and Chief Kiely at 25/1. Missed out on the place for Chief as I'd backed it at 1/5 first 6 but I am most definitely not complaining - a very profitable day!

You do it year in and year out and your knowledge, and your generosity in sharing that knowledge, is quite remarkable. Hats off once again to you, Sir.

Much more importantly, best wishes to your wife for her trip to East Grinstead.

Many thanks for your kind wishes @bobmunro
Although the bookies took one helluva beating, looks like your erstwhile employers called it right in going after the GB-trained hot pots.
And thanks for your kind comments re the thread - it is a weird little obsession but I'm more than happy to share the calculations I make so long as, imperfect though they'll always be, they seem to have something to them.
Glad the top 3 performed so well, especially after the Leinster Nat debacle for HCH - the Champ's jumping let him down a little which was a shame. 
Thanks again Bob and all the best.

cazo said:

Thanks peanut not a big gambler but £10 each way on high class hero.👍👍

Got to hand it to you for backing him when many pundits (and the Mullins' top jocks) had lost faith. Got to say, his antics in the Leinster National sorely tested mine. But I was hopeful it was down to the ground and so it seemed to prove.
Glad you were on board and made a nice profit on him.
Cheers

StarryNight said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

StarryNight said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

CafcSteve said:

What about the Scottish National?

Absolutely. Got my eye on a couple but will take a proper look when the recent Irish and Aintree GN runners have come out or not and there's a better handle on weights.

I've started with the obvious one, King of Answers. Will have to contemplate the rest of them some more.

I'm definitely going to pay attention to the Queen of Answers (!?) 
Congrats again on yesterday - brilliant work.

😆
Honestly, I know nothing! I read what people post, look at stats (and haplo groups), sometimes I go only by the name (re. Maximus) 😆

Actually, little did we know the real reason Max won ....

https://x.com/AlanBro72073576/status/2043051247226294447?s=20

Off_it said:

Nice one Peanuts - I'm £118 up thanks to you, you Legend!!!

Sorry to miss this yesterday @Off_it
A bit distracted by the excitement - got to say I was nearly in tears with Max storming over the line.
Really appreciate your perennial trust in my model despite the less successful years.
All the best.

Starinnaddick said:

Well done Peanuts. 

Many thanks @Starinnaddick
Sorry to be slow replying.
Much appreciate your kind comment.
Cheers

Starinnaddick said:

Hi Peanuts
Obviously you are pleased with the result and I also had a very good bet on the winner at decent odds. However there has been some criticism of Ben Jones on Jordans and although I realise it is all speculation I wonder if you have an opinion on this. Did he go too soon? 

Good question.
Jordans took quite a while to start travelling, was last crossing the Melling Road for the first time and had even looked nudged along briefly before that.
Jones gave him a nice patient ride I thought hunting him round 1st circuit to get him travelling sweeter, which he did.
Began to make progress around 2nd Bechers (now mid-div about 8L off the leaders).
Switched him wide after 25th and he was clearly going very nicely now and joining the leaders 4 out.
To this point, I'd say Jones had given him a beautiful ride.
He now has a question - he seems to be going very nicely indeed and no doubt giving Jones the feel that he could win this - do you let him stride on or do you just hold on to him?
Bear in mind he's probably seen and passed I Am Maximus still going nicely and he must know that Max will finish strong.
He leads over 3 out, taken to the front headed by 2 loose horses.
He continues to let him stride on round the bend about 6 furlongs from home but he's only giving him encouragement, not really asking a serious question.
Over 2 out he's got HCH, Johnnywho, Max and Iroko all off the bridle but he doesn't come off the bridle until after the last when he strikes for home, giving him his first crack half way to the Elbow.
But to my eye he's already beginning to empty (as is Johnnywho) and he gets swallowed up by Max and Iroko.

The sectionals are revealing and in fact suggest that he may already have been emptying well before Jones got seriously busy on him - just take a close look at these:

12-8f fastest in 66.3 secs (Max 2nd 66.66)
8-6f fastest in 32.25 secs (Johnnywho 2nd 32.92)
6-4f fastest in 27.23 secs (HCH 2nd 27.82) - Jones has not gone for home here, to my eye
4-2f 4th fastest in 28.78 secs (already slowing) (Johnnywho 28.25, HCH 28.42 & Max 28.45 faster)
2-1f 6th fastest in 15.87 secs (slowing again) (Max fastest 14.6, Iroko 14.87, FavDC 15.01, Johnny 15.47, HCH, 15.68 [both these 2 now beginning emptying])
1-0f 5th fastest 16.66 secs (Iroko fastest 15.59, Max 15.62, FavDC 16.32, Johnnywho 16.33, HCH 17.73 [has hit a wall - possibly made too much of the running and had clobbered The Chair]) 

In short, in answer to your question, I thought Jones gave him a peach of a ride. He just let the horse go forward as he wanted to - the alternative was to disappoint him.
From 12f out he was travelling the best in the field with minimal urging but IMHO Jordans simply didn't get the trip, in fact he was already beginning to slow 4f out.
That might be interpreted as Jones letting him fill his lungs again but, if so, he could hardly be accused of going too soon.
Either way, Jordans continued to slow.
I don't think he'd have won if Jones had held on to him. In fact, I doubt that he would have got as close as 3rd.

Many have said, he'll be the winner next year when he's more mature as an 8yo.
I don't think so. Like so many before him - he may get 4m at a pinch but he doesn't get 4.25. 

MrOneLung said:

Cheers Peanuts. 

My 15 year old Max won as obviously wanted his £5 to go on the winner. 

The missus had JohnnyWho as my name is John 

I had High Class Hero and Champ Kiely from your selections but unfortunately only had 6 places on Champ. 

Cheers MrOneLung
Now that's synchronicity, as they say. Really glad your family cleaned up and that HCH put some icing on the cake.
Many thanks for trusting my model's flakiest selection.
Bowen might have been advised to just cover him up a little but it's always a difficult call if your horse wants to bowl along, as he pleasingly did. Good sign to see him enjoying it.
If he hadn't have clobbered The Chair he might have been closer (wouldn't have won) but at least he held on for 5th.  
And the Champ made a shocking blunder at 2nd Bechers - Mullins did well to keep him upright.
Anyway, many congratulations and very best wishes to you and your Family.
Cheers