How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

letthegoodtimesroll said:

CaptainRobbo said:

Have a horrible feeling we will be 2 points clear of Oxford going into the last game.
Not expecting Millwall to put in much of a performance against them.

You need to be a/the form team going into the play offs. Not winning against Oxford would cost them dearly because their opponents and their fans in the two leg play off stage will most likely be much bettered prepared physically and mentally than the Millwall players and fans. It might also mean conceding the difference between home advantage in the 2nd leg. Every little advantage counts in those games. Of course, if Charlton are mathematically safe anyway then go for it Oxford…

Last season Sunderland lost all of their last 5 games of the season, scoring just 1 goal, and then won the play offs.

Am I the only one who read @msomerton’s post re: 56 points as them making a joke.  It was straight after the post about people making up some arbitrary number to be safe

I’m pretty sure it was in jest 

If you fill out the results for the rest of the season and give every other team around us three points in every game, the absolute maximum we would need to survive is 57.

I’m gonna go for an oohaah scale for the points required (ie 22nd +1pt):

53pts or more 1%

robroy said:

Just had a look at Millwall's fixtures and they will have a say in who goes down. They are home to Oxford on the last day, we MUST not go into the last day needed any favours. 

It’s going to happen isn’t it 🤣🙈

How are Portsmouth beating Ipswich...just our luck!

Addick Addict said:

It could all come down to goal difference which is why, given we have the best of all of the bottom seven, it is important that we avoid any big defeats.

Last season four teams were separated by one point and Luton went down with the same number of points as Hull but with a 14 goal inferior GD - Luton lost their final match and Hull drew theirs. As much as it would to be great going into that final game in a position of safety, a superior GD really is worth that extra point.  

I said this back in January just before the Millwall 4-0 defeat. If it comes down to goal difference between us and Oxford as to who is relegated then we will, almost certainly, be the ones for the drop. For that reason, we really have to win on Saturday and not simply settle for a point.  

msomerton said:

thenewbie said:

msomerton said:

cabbles said:

Am I the only one who read @msomerton’s post re: 56 points as them making a joke.  It was straight after the post about people making up some arbitrary number to be safe

I’m pretty sure it was in jest 

it was an exaggeration to emphasis how close we are to relegation, given that it is not out of the realm of possibility
of having to have a record number of points to stay up, Peterborough went down on 54pts in 2013.

It near enough is though. For that to be needed Oxford would need to get 10 points from 4 games. Portsmouth 9 from 5, and Blackburn and West Brom to get 6 and 8 from 4 respectively. One of those things might just happen, but all of them at once means all four teams hitting their best form all season right at the death (and this is assuming we don't manage to scrap and scrape a few more points ourselves.)

For us to need a record number of points would take a truly unbelievable end of season. We're down here because we're not very good, they are below us because they are worse.

well Portsmouth now need 6pts from 4 games.

Which doesn't matter. ALL of those things have to happen for the record point survival scenario. Portsmouth hitting form in and of itself makes no practical difference.

golfaddick said:

It's quite likely that WBA will get a points deduction this season, but only 2 or 3 points which would see them battling with Oxford to stay up.

Still think 52 is enough to be safe & reckon Pompey will be safe come next week.  

I think you're right about the points total but you just never know with Portsmouth. They turned up against Ipswich and they'll fancy themselves against Leicester, but then this is only the second time this season they've won 2 in a row and they've not managed more than that all season. They were pretty poor against Oxford the other day, were absolutely battered by Boro but then scored a goal in the last minute off an accidental penis deflection for their only shot on goal. It was only a month ago they were destroyed 6-1 by QPR of all teams. The irony is at this point the best thing they could do for us really is beat Leicester, which would mean if we win against Wednesday Leicester can't catch us anymore. The reality is Portsmouth will probably collapse against Leicester and lose and we'll get a point off Wednesday and have another week of sweating blood. 

RonnieMoore said:

We are more or less safe now .. looking at the fixtures …. It interesting that 49,50 and 51 have all been safe in the past …. yes you do get funny results this time of year but everyone talking like we will not get another point … and everyone else suddenly going to play like Man City … 

we may finish 4th from bottom but that is still a very successful season and our aim when we kicked of in August ….. personally I think Oxford will reach 48 , Blackburn have a real tough run in and we need Pompey not to lose to Leicester 

all in all we will be playing championship football next season 

If you honestly think we are safe then you are leaving yourself wide open to the reputation you carry on here! You are 100% on a wind up. 

cafc_se7 said:

RonnieMoore said:

We are more or less safe now .. looking at the fixtures …. It interesting that 49,50 and 51 have all been safe in the past …. yes you do get funny results this time of year but everyone talking like we will not get another point … and everyone else suddenly going to play like Man City … 

we may finish 4th from bottom but that is still a very successful season and our aim when we kicked of in August ….. personally I think Oxford will reach 48 , Blackburn have a real tough run in and we need Pompey not to lose to Leicester 

all in all we will be playing championship football next season 

If you honestly think we are safe then you are leaving yourself wide open to the reputation you carry on here! You are 100% on a wind up. 

We definitely aren’t safe but that also doesn’t mean picking up 0/1 points from now till the end of the season relegated us. 

CH4RLTON said:

Lets be real here a second, if someone would have said to us at the start of the season we would need to win one from the last four games to stay up (including a match against the worst Championship team of all time, who haven't won a home game all season) we would have snapped their hand off. I think whatever people think of Jones ect ect we just need to create a massive atmosphere between now and the end of the season home and away and we will surely get the job easily done

Of course supporters can make a difference but not the difference. That's down to the manager and players.

We've picked up two points from our last five games with draws against Oxford and Watford. The real issue is that we have become wholly reliant on a clean sheet for that vital win - it's now 13 matches since we scored more than a single goal in a game and only twice in the last 32 matches have we scored more than once (and then only twice). Those stats don't lie. 

SteveKielyCambridge said:

Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.

For that to happen you need one of the below to happen:

Leicester would have to win all 4 games to get to 53 points.
Oxford would need to win 3 out of 4 to get to 53.

It's incredibly unlikely that either team will manage that.

cabbles said:

After last night’s Pompey result I think we’re probably now looking at 61pts to ensure safety 

This becomes 58 points if WBA get a points deduction