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World Cup 2026 - USA/Canada/Mexico
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Group E goes against Scotland, which was one of their best hopes. They now need a highly improbable 4 of the 6 remaining groups to go their way. Looking at the below, i think 2 could go their way at best.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Group A - doneMrOneLung said:i still think Scotland gonna get through
Group B - done
Group C - Scotland have -3 GD
Group D - a Paraguay win by no more than 3, a draw or Australia win by just 1 goal, puts them both above Scotland.
Group E - Scotland need Germany and Ivory Coast to win (or 2 draws)
Group F - if Sweden don't lose by more than 3 they will be above Scotland
Group G - Belgium should beat NZ, which means they need Egypt to beat Iran.
Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay, then 3rd in this group cannot finish above Scotland.
Group I - a Senegal win v Iraq puts them above Scotland
Group J - a draw, Austria win by no more than 1 goal, or Algeria win by no more than 3 puts them above Scotland.
Group K - a Congo win v Uzbekistan puts them above Scotland
Group L - a Croatia win or draw and any 3rd placed side is above Scotland.
I'd say that Groups E & H are probably the most likely to go in their favour.
F, I, K & L seem unlikely to go their way.
Which basically means they are quite likely praying for 2 groups out of D, G & J to go their way.
Update:
Group A - done
Group B - done
Group C - Scotland have -3 GD
Group D - done
Group E - done
Group F - done
Group G - Belgium should beat NZ, which means they need Egypt to beat Iran.
Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay, then 3rd in this group cannot finish above Scotland.
Group I - a Senegal win v Iraq puts them above Scotland
Group J - a draw, Austria win by no more than 1 goal, or Algeria win by no more than 3 puts them above Scotland.
Group K - a Congo win v Uzbekistan puts them above Scotland
Group L - a Croatia win or draw and any 3rd placed side is above Scotland.
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Big Ecuadorian population in that part of NJ.KBslittlesis said:I'm not gloating.
If we have to play Ecuador, that's gonna be tough as the crowd seems 80% Ecuadorian 😳1 -
Sweden, Ecuador and Bosnia all confirmed qualified in third place so far. Two because there are 4 teams who've finished third with a worse record and one because the Senegal-Iraq game has to produce a third placed side with either 3 points or 1.0
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The sweaties may as well fly home now1
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They’ve overachieved twice already by qualifying for the WCF and by winning a game. They should hold out for the third time and sneaking into that last spot.sam3110 said:The sweaties may as well fly home now0 -
Just watching the highlights from the Germany game and don't know if we are making it up as we go along now. Is a boot at head height that makes contact with the players head not classed as a high boot anymore.1
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If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?0 -
conker said:If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?
Should just be the format it always was before. Was ridiculous changing it.0 -
Which is why it will go up to 64 teams.DamoNorthStand said:conker said:If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?
Should just be the format it always was before. Was ridiculous changing it.2 -
Cape Verde have a great chance of finishing 2nd in their group, which would be amazing, but it will be interesting how they play when they are the better team, expected to win. And the Saudis know that a win will send them through instead.
Uruguay bang in trouble, as I don't think Spain will want to risk the bore draw. A draw might get them through, as they'll be on 3 points with 0 GD.1 -
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killerandflash said:Cape Verde have a great chance of finishing 2nd in their group, which would be amazing, but it will be interesting how they play when they are the better team, expected to win. And the Saudis know that a win will send them through instead.
Uruguay bang in trouble, as I don't think Spain will want to risk the bore draw. A draw might get them through, as they'll be on 3 points with 0 GD.
Yes it looks as though they are going out.
I had hoped they would ko the Argies in a tasty 1st round match.0 -
By simulating the remaining matches thousands of times to see who the most likely third placed teams are, and then aligning those with the 495 possible third place combinations.Charlton and on said:
How are you getting to that probability? Out of curiosity.Callumcafc said:
It is highly unlikely that England play Ecuador in the round of 32.MrLargo said:BBC knockout stage predictor - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/schedule#KnockoutStage - now has England playing Ecuador rather than Algeria in the last 32 off the back of Ecuador going in front. Not massively keen on that prospect.
Following the completion of Group E, Ecuador’s path:
- 84.0% vs 1A (Mexico)
- 7.9% vs 1L (England’s group)
- 5.2% vs 1B (Switzerland)
- 2.9% vs 1K (Portugal’s group)
For what it’s worth, every scenario that includes third in Group K qualifying as one of the eight best, they are matched with Group L winners. That’s why all the simulations point at DR Congo: if they beat the Uzbeks, they are in and are guaranteed a match against the winners of Group L.0
