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World Cup 2026 - USA/Canada/Mexico
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Group E goes against Scotland, which was one of their best hopes. They now need a highly improbable 4 of the 6 remaining groups to go their way. Looking at the below, i think 2 could go their way at best.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Group A - doneMrOneLung said:i still think Scotland gonna get through
Group B - done
Group C - Scotland have -3 GD
Group D - a Paraguay win by no more than 3, a draw or Australia win by just 1 goal, puts them both above Scotland.
Group E - Scotland need Germany and Ivory Coast to win (or 2 draws)
Group F - if Sweden don't lose by more than 3 they will be above Scotland
Group G - Belgium should beat NZ, which means they need Egypt to beat Iran.
Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay, then 3rd in this group cannot finish above Scotland.
Group I - a Senegal win v Iraq puts them above Scotland
Group J - a draw, Austria win by no more than 1 goal, or Algeria win by no more than 3 puts them above Scotland.
Group K - a Congo win v Uzbekistan puts them above Scotland
Group L - a Croatia win or draw and any 3rd placed side is above Scotland.
I'd say that Groups E & H are probably the most likely to go in their favour.
F, I, K & L seem unlikely to go their way.
Which basically means they are quite likely praying for 2 groups out of D, G & J to go their way.
Update:
Group A - done
Group B - done
Group C - Scotland have -3 GD
Group D - done
Group E - done
Group F - done
Group G - Belgium should beat NZ, which means they need Egypt to beat Iran.
Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay, then 3rd in this group cannot finish above Scotland.
Group I - a Senegal win v Iraq puts them above Scotland
Group J - a draw, Austria win by no more than 1 goal, or Algeria win by no more than 3 puts them above Scotland.
Group K - a Congo win v Uzbekistan puts them above Scotland
Group L - a Croatia win or draw and any 3rd placed side is above Scotland.
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Big Ecuadorian population in that part of NJ.KBslittlesis said:I'm not gloating.
If we have to play Ecuador, that's gonna be tough as the crowd seems 80% Ecuadorian 😳1 -
Sweden, Ecuador and Bosnia all confirmed qualified in third place so far. Two because there are 4 teams who've finished third with a worse record and one because the Senegal-Iraq game has to produce a third placed side with either 3 points or 1.0
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The sweaties may as well fly home now2
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They’ve overachieved twice already by qualifying for the WCF and by winning a game. They should hold out for the third time and sneaking into that last spot.sam3110 said:The sweaties may as well fly home now0 -
Just watching the highlights from the Germany game and don't know if we are making it up as we go along now. Is a boot at head height that makes contact with the players head not classed as a high boot anymore.4
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If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?1 -
conker said:If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?
Should just be the format it always was before. Was ridiculous changing it.3 -
Which is why it will go up to 64 teams.DamoNorthStand said:conker said:If Scotland go through they will have a worse record than Turkey who are out.
Should it be the 8 best 3rd and 4th placed teams?
Should just be the format it always was before. Was ridiculous changing it.2 -
Cape Verde have a great chance of finishing 2nd in their group, which would be amazing, but it will be interesting how they play when they are the better team, expected to win. And the Saudis know that a win will send them through instead.
Uruguay bang in trouble, as I don't think Spain will want to risk the bore draw. A draw might get them through, as they'll be on 3 points with 0 GD.1 -
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killerandflash said:Cape Verde have a great chance of finishing 2nd in their group, which would be amazing, but it will be interesting how they play when they are the better team, expected to win. And the Saudis know that a win will send them through instead.
Uruguay bang in trouble, as I don't think Spain will want to risk the bore draw. A draw might get them through, as they'll be on 3 points with 0 GD.
Yes it looks as though they are going out.
I had hoped they would ko the Argies in a tasty 1st round match.0 -
By simulating the remaining matches thousands of times to see who the most likely third placed teams are, and then aligning those with the 495 possible third place combinations.Charlton and on said:
How are you getting to that probability? Out of curiosity.Callumcafc said:
It is highly unlikely that England play Ecuador in the round of 32.MrLargo said:BBC knockout stage predictor - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/schedule#KnockoutStage - now has England playing Ecuador rather than Algeria in the last 32 off the back of Ecuador going in front. Not massively keen on that prospect.
Following the completion of Group E, Ecuador’s path:
- 84.0% vs 1A (Mexico)
- 7.9% vs 1L (England’s group)
- 5.2% vs 1B (Switzerland)
- 2.9% vs 1K (Portugal’s group)
For what it’s worth, every scenario that includes third in Group K qualifying as one of the eight best, they are matched with Group L winners. That’s why all the simulations point at DR Congo: if they beat the Uzbeks, they are in and are guaranteed a match against the winners of Group L.2 -
The Athletic’s predictor is annoyingly behind account creation but probably the best option for seeing this for yourself
https://x.com/bencrellin/status/2070269577603293530?s=46&t=ynww82GMl7VKBjthBflU0g
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Following completion of Groups D, E, F:Callumcafc said:
Following the completion of Groups A, B and C:Callumcafc said:
Now everyone has played twice, and running thousands of simulations based on Betfair Exchange odds for the final group games, here are the most likely R32 fixtures:Callumcafc said:As it stands, the likely round of 32:
Germany v Paraguay
France v Sweden
South Korea v Switzerland
Morocco v Netherlands
Croatia v Portugal
Spain v Austria
USA v Bosnia
Belgium v Czechia
Brazil v Japan
Ivory Coast v Norway
Mexico v Scotland
England v DR Congo
Argentina v Uruguay
Australia v Egypt
Canada v Algeria
Colombia v Ghana
Germany v Paraguay (46.5% likely)
France v Sweden (50.2%)
South Korea v Switzerland (49.9%)
Netherlands v Morocco (53.5%)
Colombia v Croatia (23.2%)
Spain v Austria (61.3%)
USA v Bosnia (69.3%)
Egypt v Czechia (13.4%)
Brazil v Japan (39.7%)
Ivory Coast v Norway (78.1%)
Mexico v Scotland (49.8%)
England v DR Congo (44.6%)
Argentina v Cape Verde (55.0%)
Australia v Belgium (36.5%)
Canada v Algeria (17.3%)
Portugal v Ghana (27.7%)
Teams in bold are confirmed in position as group winners.
Germany v Paraguay (46.1%)
France v Sweden (39.9%)
South Africa v Canada (100%)
Netherlands v Morocco (80.7%)
Portugal v Croatia (23.0%)
Spain v Austria (61.6%)
USA v Bosnia (99.9%)
Egypt v South Korea (50.2%)
Brazil v Japan (61.8%)
Ivory Coast v Norway (78.4%)
Mexico v Scotland (23.5%)
England v DR Congo (45.0%)
Argentina v Cape Verde (55.6%)
Australia v Belgium (35.6%)
Switzerland v Algeria (42.6%)
Colombia v Ghana (28.0%)
Teams in bold locked in position. Simulation cannot make up its mind on which ties Colombia and Portugal end up in - a true coin toss scenario.Other than that, it looks like Scotland are the most vulnerable with Mexico having numerous possible opponents.
Germany v Paraguay (99.6%)
France v Sweden (80.8%)
South Africa v Canada
Netherlands v Morocco
Colombia v Croatia (22.8%)
Spain v Austria (61.6%)
USA v Bosnia
Egypt v South Korea (33.0%)
Brazil v Japan
Ivory Coast v Norway (81.1%)
Mexico v Ecuador (80.6%)
England v DR Congo (46.5%)
Argentina v Cape Verde (51.6%)
Australia v Belgium (54.0%)
Switzerland v Iran (26.2%)
Portugal v Ghana (27.5%)Four ties in bold are confirmed so far. Teams in bold locked in position and are waiting on their opponent to be confirmed.3 -
Brazil will no doubt be praying they face us @ the Quarter-Finals stage1994 is the one World Cup they've won, where they've not faced us on the way to lifting the Trophy1958 is the one World Cup they've won, and failed to beat us when we've met0
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Netherlands v Morocco is a banger of a last 32 tie. That could quite easily have been a quarter final really, one good team is going home very early.
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Potentially looking at one of Germany vs. France going home in the RO16 as well, same with Spain vs. Portugal as things standChris_from_Sidcup said:Netherlands v Morocco is a banger of a last 32 tie. That could quite easily have been a quarter final really, one good team is going home very early.1 -
Would be an improvement for Germany though, as they didn't even make it out of the group stage in 2018 or 2022.ForeverAddickted said:
Potentially looking at one of Germany vs. France going home in the RO16 as well, same with Spain vs. Portugal as things standChris_from_Sidcup said:Netherlands v Morocco is a banger of a last 32 tie. That could quite easily have been a quarter final really, one good team is going home very early.1 -
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You'd hope a bunch of teams would simply boycottLeroy Ambrose said:1 -
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Would be interesting to see what rules they’d bring in this time. I’d love to see a 3 and out system like the NFL, with each team getting 3 attacks before a 5 minute drinks break.Leroy Ambrose said:Would be great for growing the game.0 -
The ridiculous 2030 World Cup "ticks off" Europe, S America and Africa, so with Saudi (Asia) in 2034, with the FIFA rotation of continents, it could easily end up back in the US again.Leroy Ambrose said:1 -
Cheers for flagging this up. Just had a look. Far better than the Beeb version I'd been looking at.Callumcafc said:The Athletic’s predictor is annoyingly behind account creation but probably the best option for seeing this for yourself
https://x.com/bencrellin/status/2070269577603293530?s=46&t=ynww82GMl7VKBjthBflU0g
So DRC or Senegal for England presuming we avoid disaster against Panama.1 -
I actually still don't understand how it's worked out which 3rd place team faces who in the next round? Can someone ELI5?0
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I mean given the way they've covered North America this time, South America, Europe and Africa next time, and Asia in 2034, according to their own rules only North America, Oceania, CONCACAF or Antarctica can host it in 2038.
Australia would have had a very slim chance, but they're now a part of Asia in qualifying which probably scuppers that, and I can't see New Zealand building 12 new stadiums all over 40k to host it, same as the Caribbean.
Expect it to then be in Europe at the earliest again in 2042, though I wouldn't be surprised if they bypass that and give it to yet another oil state, and overlook us again1 -
Walkingred said:I actually still don't understand how it's worked out which 3rd place team faces who in the next round? Can someone ELI5?
there are 495 possible combinations of 3rd placed qualifiers
A B C D E F G H
A B C D E F G I
A B C D E F G J
ETC
and there are 495 pre selected paths depending on which 8 groups provide the 3rd placed teams1 -
Thanks for explaining. Pleased it's not pointing to EcuadorCallumcafc said:
By simulating the remaining matches thousands of times to see who the most likely third placed teams are, and then aligning those with the 495 possible third place combinations.Charlton and on said:
How are you getting to that probability? Out of curiosity.Callumcafc said:
It is highly unlikely that England play Ecuador in the round of 32.MrLargo said:BBC knockout stage predictor - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/schedule#KnockoutStage - now has England playing Ecuador rather than Algeria in the last 32 off the back of Ecuador going in front. Not massively keen on that prospect.
Following the completion of Group E, Ecuador’s path:
- 84.0% vs 1A (Mexico)
- 7.9% vs 1L (England’s group)
- 5.2% vs 1B (Switzerland)
- 2.9% vs 1K (Portugal’s group)
For what it’s worth, every scenario that includes third in Group K qualifying as one of the eight best, they are matched with Group L winners. That’s why all the simulations point at DR Congo: if they beat the Uzbeks, they are in and are guaranteed a match against the winners of Group L.0 -
Doubt i'll see England/UK host a world cup in my lifetime. We just wouldn't be able to line FIFAs pockets enough.2
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I know Italian clubs want it to use it as an excuse to upgrade a lot of their stadiums.
Germany, France and us could all host it with minimal updates.
I expect the next European world cup to be a joint hosted affair from Turkey and a couple of other places close by0 -
MrOneLung said:Walkingred said:I actually still don't understand how it's worked out which 3rd place team faces who in the next round? Can someone ELI5?
there are 495 possible combinations of 3rd placed qualifiers
A B C D E F G H
A B C D E F G I
A B C D E F G J
ETC
and there are 495 pre selected paths depending on which 8 groups provide the 3rd placed teams
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