The west will do (thankfully.) nothing other than voicing their disapproval if anything does happen - the usual statements; just like there was during the issues in Georgia.
Meanwhile, Russia gets to do a big song and dance about how strong they are - coincidentally (...?) whilst there's still diplomatic issues with the US over plans to have a missile defence system in Europe.
An overly simplistic view (ignoring the changes in Ukraine that have led to their current situation, Putin's background and his general attitude) - but it's pretty much the way I'm viewing this situation.
I will admit I probably could do with reading a bit more on the latest developments though, but I fear the crux of it is as above.
Certainly throws a spotlight on NATO's eastward expansion. Nationalist feeling in the region is similar to the former Yugoslavia. Ukrainians fought Nazi's, Soviets and Poles in the 1940's often at the same time, Poles fought Nazis,Soviets, Ukranians and Lithuanians........all gets very messy. Throw into the mix some dispossessed ethnic groups like the Tatars who were getting a shoeing from the Crimean Russians on Friday and who knows where we end up. Ethnic Ukrainians were starved to death in the Holodomor by the Soviets in the 1930's so there are many historic grievances in the region.
The close attachment of birth, language and land has always ended in tears yet seems there are so many people that are still looking for their own patch of soil and rock. Can think of over a dozen current conflicts/ areas of tension/disputes all based on possession of a particular bit of terra firma. Lines on maps drawn by the powers of the time and endured by their successors.
The Soviet Union may have collapsed but the kremlin has no intention of allowing their influence in the region to deteriorate. It's almost turning into a Soviet Union by proxy.
The west cannot / will not sanction military action thank goodness and apart from USA minimal impact financial sanctions the rest of the West will just have to suck it up. The EU cannot apply any leverage on Russia. The Cold War just woke up and went for a stroll.
Maybe the US and UK should have thought about this before supporting the far right nazis who they have just backed to power.
Russia aren't trying to take over Ukraine but are (illegally) trying to annex one small part of it.
No winners, but no innocent parties from a government point of view either. Russia can't be painted as the bad guys without William Hague and John Kerry joining them in the dock.
Funny how much was made in the Western press of protesters dying in Ukraine, who they supported, while using far quieter and softer reporting style when talking about (if even mentioning at all) the thousands killed in Egypt, where they support the regime.
Russia are able to dick wave at the West on this, Syria, etc due to the legacy of war criminals Blair and Bush.
Things never end well when we get involved overseas. Business interests hidden in humanitarian Trojan horses continue the depressing pattern with under reported loss of innocent human life.
Maybe the US and UK should have thought about this before supporting the far right nazis who they have just backed to power.
Russia aren't trying to take over Ukraine but are (illegally) trying to annex one small part of it.
No winners, but no innocent parties from a government point of view either. Russia can't be painted as the bad guys without William Hague and John Kerry joining them in the dock.
Funny how much was made in the Western press of protesters dying in Ukraine, who they supported, while using far quieter and softer reporting style when talking about (if even mentioning at all) the thousands killed in Egypt, where they support the regime.
Russia are able to dick wave at the West on this, Syria, etc due to the legacy of war criminals Blair and Bush.
Things never end well when we get involved overseas. Business interests hidden in humanitarian Trojan horses continue the depressing pattern with under reported loss of innocent human life.
While I understand where you are coming from, I think you have gone way too far with your first sentence. There is clearly a nasty far-rght element within the protest movement but it is by no means the majority of them. This group is not, for example the one pushing for closer ties with the EU. They are ultra-nationalists, and you can find them all across Eastern Europe. Ironically many intelligent Russians share their world view (as I have discovered through quite astounding personal experience). I am quite sure that the most progressive educated people in Kiev and Western Ukraine support the overthrow of the appalling Yanukovic. The problem is that not just in Crimea but also to the East, where the heavy industry is, people are either Russians or Russian speaking and oriented. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think we should just turn a blind eye to Putin's bullying. For a start we should get much tougher with the tax affairs of rich Russians who swan round in London. Starting with R. Abramovic.
I can't claim base my view on any visit to Ukraine, however I am in touch with a group of young activists in Lvov. This is because they wish to build a Ukraine version of the WhatDoTheyKnow Freedom of Information website. Take a look at their general website. Look at the quality and articulate presentation of it. Then click on the tab "Our Team". The first time I did it, I immediately heard the Charlton captain in the BBC drama "United" after they have been mullered by the Busby Babes
"But you're just kids!. How can you play like that, when you're just kids"
Personally, I don't think we should turn our backs on them, in the way Chamberlain turned his back on the Czechs in 1938. Chamberlain was a coward, and I like to think that is not who we are.
The West, USA apart is stuffed. Forget military intervention that can't happen. That leaves bluster and indignation as our only weapon. The Russians have us by the short and curlies. The have the gas we must have. We cannot afford to risk that supply at any cost by "upsetting" Putin or for that matter having the pipeline supply interrupted by armed conflict in the body of The Ukraine.
I think it possible that the result of this situation will be a short and ultimately for Ukraine futile armed conflict with the outcome being that the East of Ukraine and The Crimea is annexed. The West will look on in horror and indignation but powerless to do much about it.
Maybe the US and UK should have thought about this before supporting the far right nazis who they have just backed to power.
Russia aren't trying to take over Ukraine but are (illegally) trying to annex one small part of it.
No winners, but no innocent parties from a government point of view either. Russia can't be painted as the bad guys without William Hague and John Kerry joining them in the dock.
Funny how much was made in the Western press of protesters dying in Ukraine, who they supported, while using far quieter and softer reporting style when talking about (if even mentioning at all) the thousands killed in Egypt, where they support the regime.
Russia are able to dick wave at the West on this, Syria, etc due to the legacy of war criminals Blair and Bush.
Things never end well when we get involved overseas. Business interests hidden in humanitarian Trojan horses continue the depressing pattern with under reported loss of innocent human life.
While I understand where you are coming from, I think you have gone way too far with your first sentence. There is clearly a nasty far-rght element within the protest movement but it is by no means the majority of them. This group is not, for example the one pushing for closer ties with the EU. They are ultra-nationalists, and you can find them all across Eastern Europe. Ironically many intelligent Russians share their world view (as I have discovered through quite astounding personal experience). I am quite sure that the most progressive educated people in Kiev and Western Ukraine support the overthrow of the appalling Yanukovic. The problem is that not just in Crimea but also to the East, where the heavy industry is, people are either Russians or Russian speaking and oriented. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think we should just turn a blind eye to Putin's bullying. For a start we should get much tougher with the tax affairs of rich Russians who swan round in London. Starting with R. Abramovic.
I can't claim base my view on any visit to Ukraine, however I am in touch with a group of young activists in Lvov. This is because they wish to build a Ukraine version of the WhatDoTheyKnow Freedom of Information website. Take a look at their general website. Look at the quality and articulate presentation of it. Then click on the tab "Our Team". The first time I did it, I immediately heard the Charlton captain in the BBC drama "United" after they have been mullered by the Busby Babes
"But you're just kids!. How can you play like that, when you're just kids"
Personally, I don't think we should turn our backs on them, in the way Chamberlain turned his back on the Czechs in 1938. Chamberlain was a coward, and I like to think that is not who we are.
Admittedly the word nazi was probably a bit too over the top but the leaders of the protesters have been photographed pulling nazi salutes to the crowds on the steps of government buildings during the protests. Unsurprisingly not widely reported in the mainstream media.
My main issue isn't with our government's interventions or non-interventions, or even simply public backing or criticism, it's the inconsistent nature in which it is done, almost always driven by corporate interests, with actual politics or uses of violence seemingly irrelevant to who we'll back this week.
I suspect from reading your other posts over the years we have a very similar world view and I'm a bit disappointed my casual tossing in of the word nazi perhaps weakened my argument.
I think this looks a worrying situation that could potentially ignite a conflict. Putin always comes across like he wants to be an old school warrior, and there is a lot of political turbulence in the region. The West appears uncertain and there is little stomach amongst its people for another armed intervention with Afghanistan still not quite extricated from. I just hope that some sound diplomacy and clear messages can stop this escalating but from what info we are being given, I think this has the potential to go pretty bad. But who knows.
To me this looks a worrying situation that could potentially ignite a conflict. Putin always comes across like he wants to be an old school warrior, and there is a lot of political turbulence in the region. The West appears uncertain and there is little stomach amongst its people for another armed intervention with Afghanistan still not quite extricated from. I just hope that some sound diplomacy and clear messages can stop this escalating but from what info we are being given, I think this has the potential to go pretty bad.
I think it's pretty clear from what's coming from the Ukraines new government that it realises that armed conflict is very much on the cards. By mobilising its armed forces and calling up reservists I suspect it is trying to make Putin think twice before continuing to "protect it's interests" In my opinion it's just playing into the Russians hands. The mobilisation of Ukraine military will just inflame the ethnic Russians and give Putin the excuse he needs to put in a protective force. It will as Leroy said earlier "end badly" but I suspect that it's pretty much only The Ukraine that suffers.
such a tricky one to call which way this is going to go. The east and west of Ukraine are like completely different countries; different ethnic makeups, different language and a different outlook on life.
I've lived on both sides of the country and despite having a pretty good idea of how the 2 sides think really have little idea what's going to happen
I'd expect that the Crimea will end up Russian but tbh that would be no real change anyway. The majority in the region are ethnic russians anyway, they have their own parliament already and it's the only region of the country where russian is the official language
It's not been Ukrainian for that long and it's simple enough to operate as a russian oblast in the same way as Kaliningrad is
The east of the country is going to be more interesting, despite being pro russian they are also fiercely patriotic, as are the pro europe west and I think that patriotism may see the bulk of the country stay together but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a split
I'm off to Donetsk some time in the next couple of weeks which should be interesting, will get a much better idea of what's going on when I get there
Lines on maps, the upsurge in nationalist agendas generally in Europe is worrying, there are historic claims aplenty in the Balkans and further east. If you consider the bigger picture there are plenty of volunteers that are energised by such ethnic claims to home and hearth. Australian volunteers from the Serb and Croat communities spring to mind during the 90's. Macedonian nationalists lay claim to lands in Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania. Economic depression in Greece for example and the less strident calls for Catalonian and Scots independence encourage more irrational claims and the internet allows greater access and voice to these agendas. The notion of self determination is a sacred cow that was pushed by post Napoleonic Britain and post WW1 US economic expansionism. In essence the big players have always used it to further their own ends but ultimately it will always prove a problem in the long run.
The West, USA apart is stuffed. Forget military intervention that can't happen. That leaves bluster and indignation as our only weapon. The Russians have us by the short and curlies. The have the gas we must have. We cannot afford to risk that supply at any cost by "upsetting" Putin or for that matter having the pipeline supply interrupted by armed conflict in the body of The Ukraine.
I think it possible that the result of this situation will be a short and ultimately for Ukraine futile armed conflict with the outcome being that the East of Ukraine and The Crimea is annexed. The West will look on in horror and indignation but powerless to do much about it.
This.
A shooting war between NATO and Russia is unthinkable and just will not happen. There's no Hussars and Charges of Light Brigades - and Florence Nightingale wouldn't be a great deal of help with this Crimean War. Only proxy wars are thinkable between East and West and this can't now be a proxy war as Russia is an active protagonist.
As SHG says, any armed response from Ukraine will be painful and futile for them and the Crimea and other pockets of eastern Ukraine will be annexed.
Maybe the US and UK should have thought about this before supporting the far right nazis who they have just backed to power.
Russia aren't trying to take over Ukraine but are (illegally) trying to annex one small part of it.
No winners, but no innocent parties from a government point of view either. Russia can't be painted as the bad guys without William Hague and John Kerry joining them in the dock.
Funny how much was made in the Western press of protesters dying in Ukraine, who they supported, while using far quieter and softer reporting style when talking about (if even mentioning at all) the thousands killed in Egypt, where they support the regime.
Russia are able to dick wave at the West on this, Syria, etc due to the legacy of war criminals Blair and Bush.
Things never end well when we get involved overseas. Business interests hidden in humanitarian Trojan horses continue the depressing pattern with under reported loss of innocent human life.
While I understand where you are coming from, I think you have gone way too far with your first sentence. There is clearly a nasty far-rght element within the protest movement but it is by no means the majority of them. This group is not, for example the one pushing for closer ties with the EU. They are ultra-nationalists, and you can find them all across Eastern Europe. Ironically many intelligent Russians share their world view (as I have discovered through quite astounding personal experience). I am quite sure that the most progressive educated people in Kiev and Western Ukraine support the overthrow of the appalling Yanukovic. The problem is that not just in Crimea but also to the East, where the heavy industry is, people are either Russians or Russian speaking and oriented. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think we should just turn a blind eye to Putin's bullying. For a start we should get much tougher with the tax affairs of rich Russians who swan round in London. Starting with R. Abramovic.
I can't claim base my view on any visit to Ukraine, however I am in touch with a group of young activists in Lvov. This is because they wish to build a Ukraine version of the WhatDoTheyKnow Freedom of Information website. Take a look at their general website. Look at the quality and articulate presentation of it. Then click on the tab "Our Team". The first time I did it, I immediately heard the Charlton captain in the BBC drama "United" after they have been mullered by the Busby Babes
"But you're just kids!. How can you play like that, when you're just kids"
Personally, I don't think we should turn our backs on them, in the way Chamberlain turned his back on the Czechs in 1938. Chamberlain was a coward, and I like to think that is not who we are.
Admittedly the word nazi was probably a bit too over the top but the leaders of the protesters have been photographed pulling nazi salutes to the crowds on the steps of government buildings during the protests. Unsurprisingly not widely reported in the mainstream media.
My main issue isn't with our government's interventions or non-interventions, or even simply public backing or criticism, it's the inconsistent nature in which it is done, almost always driven by corporate interests, with actual politics or uses of violence seemingly irrelevant to who we'll back this week.
I suspect from reading your other posts over the years we have a very similar world view and I'm a bit disappointed my casual tossing in of the word nazi perhaps weakened my argument.
No need to be disappointed. However I feel that the far -right group have been rather over-played in some of the media, and I just wanted to speak up for what i believe to be the decent majority.
Don't know half as much as most on here but just find the whole thing shocking. Was only in independence square for 5 days back in Oct with England. We drank in the area for 5 days and I struggle to now see pictures of that very are being a war zone. Been to Ukraine 3 times with England- Kiev, Dnipro and Donetsk. It can be rough on the edges and feel like its 20yrs behind the West in places but i would still never have forseen this happening. Like others have said though - I can only see things getting worse.
First steps to re-establishment of the Soviet Union and as a result World War III?
Blimey, that's really cheered me up.
That sets Charlton's relegation struggle into context.
The Russian empire and the struggle with Europe has been going on for 100s of years. This is just another episode in the great game. Can't see Russia giving up Crimea or the industrial parts of Ukraine. The division of the country seems very possible. Russia will not let the expansion of the EC and Nato get any closer than it is now. Neither the West or Russia want a major war or in any shape economically for it. It will stop at attrition and division of territory. Tense but not the start of WWIII. Its just history ongoing.
What you saying - Belgium 1839 Treaty of London? I think US and UK more than prepared to ignore Budapest. Anyway Billy Bunter out there for 16 pints and a pie now so it'll be fine.
Don't think it will end in a major war. Hope I am correct.
Do see the division of the Country as potentially occurring. They may end up with the Crimea becoming part of Russia, an independent (Russian leaning) Eastern Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine looking to the West.
The nationalist card is often played by people in / wanting power, often this does not end to the advantage of the ordinary man / woman.
Having been to the areas that are in the news, I hope this can be resolved without bloodshed.
Going to be a little worrying for a while but think (hope) this will stop just short of an ongoing armed conflict. But can see the result being annexation of Crimea.
Comments
The west will do (thankfully.) nothing other than voicing their disapproval if anything does happen - the usual statements; just like there was during the issues in Georgia.
Meanwhile, Russia gets to do a big song and dance about how strong they are - coincidentally (...?) whilst there's still diplomatic issues with the US over plans to have a missile defence system in Europe.
An overly simplistic view (ignoring the changes in Ukraine that have led to their current situation, Putin's background and his general attitude) - but it's pretty much the way I'm viewing this situation.
I will admit I probably could do with reading a bit more on the latest developments though, but I fear the crux of it is as above.
The close attachment of birth, language and land has always ended in tears yet seems there are so many people that are still looking for their own patch of soil and rock. Can think of over a dozen current conflicts/ areas of tension/disputes all based on possession of a particular bit of terra firma.
Lines on maps drawn by the powers of the time and endured by their successors.
Worried now?
Russia aren't trying to take over Ukraine but are (illegally) trying to annex one small part of it.
No winners, but no innocent parties from a government point of view either. Russia can't be painted as the bad guys without William Hague and John Kerry joining them in the dock.
Funny how much was made in the Western press of protesters dying in Ukraine, who they supported, while using far quieter and softer reporting style when talking about (if even mentioning at all) the thousands killed in Egypt, where they support the regime.
Russia are able to dick wave at the West on this, Syria, etc due to the legacy of war criminals Blair and Bush.
Things never end well when we get involved overseas. Business interests hidden in humanitarian Trojan horses continue the depressing pattern with under reported loss of innocent human life.
I can't claim base my view on any visit to Ukraine, however I am in touch with a group of young activists in Lvov. This is because they wish to build a Ukraine version of the WhatDoTheyKnow Freedom of Information website. Take a look at their general website. Look at the quality and articulate presentation of it. Then click on the tab "Our Team". The first time I did it, I immediately heard the Charlton captain in the BBC drama "United" after they have been mullered by the Busby Babes
"But you're just kids!. How can you play like that, when you're just kids"
Personally, I don't think we should turn our backs on them, in the way Chamberlain turned his back on the Czechs in 1938. Chamberlain was a coward, and I like to think that is not who we are.
I think it possible that the result of this situation will be a short and ultimately for Ukraine futile armed conflict with the outcome being that the East of Ukraine and The Crimea is annexed. The West will look on in horror and indignation but powerless to do much about it.
My main issue isn't with our government's interventions or non-interventions, or even simply public backing or criticism, it's the inconsistent nature in which it is done, almost always driven by corporate interests, with actual politics or uses of violence seemingly irrelevant to who we'll back this week.
I suspect from reading your other posts over the years we have a very similar world view and I'm a bit disappointed my casual tossing in of the word nazi perhaps weakened my argument.
I just hope that some sound diplomacy and clear messages can stop this escalating but from what info we are being given, I think this has the potential to go pretty bad.
But who knows.
I've lived on both sides of the country and despite having a pretty good idea of how the 2 sides think really have little idea what's going to happen
I'd expect that the Crimea will end up Russian but tbh that would be no real change anyway. The majority in the region are ethnic russians anyway, they have their own parliament already and it's the only region of the country where russian is the official language
It's not been Ukrainian for that long and it's simple enough to operate as a russian oblast in the same way as Kaliningrad is
The east of the country is going to be more interesting, despite being pro russian they are also fiercely patriotic, as are the pro europe west and I think that patriotism may see the bulk of the country stay together but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a split
I'm off to Donetsk some time in the next couple of weeks which should be interesting, will get a much better idea of what's going on when I get there
A shooting war between NATO and Russia is unthinkable and just will not happen. There's no Hussars and Charges of Light Brigades - and Florence Nightingale wouldn't be a great deal of help with this Crimean War. Only proxy wars are thinkable between East and West and this can't now be a proxy war as Russia is an active protagonist.
As SHG says, any armed response from Ukraine will be painful and futile for them and the Crimea and other pockets of eastern Ukraine will be annexed.
@leaburn4england
No need to be disappointed. However I feel that the far -right group have been rather over-played in some of the media, and I just wanted to speak up for what i believe to be the decent majority.
@rina
I'd be very interested to read more from you, especially if you are off there soon.
Likewise
Been to Ukraine 3 times with England- Kiev, Dnipro and Donetsk. It can be rough on the edges and feel like its 20yrs behind the West in places but i would still never have forseen this happening.
Like others have said though - I can only see things getting worse.
The Russian empire and the struggle with Europe has been going on for 100s of years. This is just another episode in the great game. Can't see Russia giving up Crimea or the industrial parts of Ukraine. The division of the country seems very possible. Russia will not let the expansion of the EC and Nato get any closer than it is now. Neither the West or Russia want a major war or in any shape economically for it. It will stop at attrition and division of territory. Tense but not the start of WWIII. Its just history ongoing.
I think US and UK more than prepared to ignore Budapest. Anyway Billy Bunter out there for 16 pints and a pie now so it'll be fine.
Don't think it will end in a major war. Hope I am correct.
Do see the division of the Country as potentially occurring. They may end up with the Crimea becoming part of Russia, an independent (Russian leaning) Eastern Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine looking to the West.
The nationalist card is often played by people in / wanting power, often this does not end to the advantage of the ordinary man / woman.
Having been to the areas that are in the news, I hope this can be resolved without bloodshed.