Very good post Loco but are you forgetting the fact that the strategic value you talk of is relevant for wars fought in the previous century not this. I agree that not all wars are going to be futuristic and boots on the ground are still important for some conflicts. But buffer zone (countries) are for the Cold War era where the USSR protected itself to the west by having thousands of tanks based in Czechoslovakia and East Germany. The next conflict god forbid will be fought predominantly with drones and long rang missiles. There will be no blitzkrieg to retreat from and no Russian winters to defeat enemy soldiers.
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Lets just let Russia invade whatever Eastern European country they want. What could possibly go wrong.
It is our problem, it should be every nations problem. Don't agree we should go it alone, but think the UN (and therefore every country) needs to stand up to Russia.
Poland says Russian appeasement not an option: "History shows that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time."
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Lets just let Russia invade whatever Eastern European country they want. What could possibly go wrong.
It is our problem, it should be every nations problem. Don't agree we should go it alone, but think the UN (and therefore every country) needs to stand up to Russia.
Poland says Russian appeasement not an option: "History shows that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time."
Agree, just look back at the start of the 2nd world war.
The parallels between this and the Sudetenland Crisis are far too great to ignore. The only thing missing is genocide, and I don't really see Putin going down that path. The difference here is the EU are ten times more cack-handed in their approach to this crisis than the League of Nations ever was. This is why the EU should drop the politics bollocks, stick to being a free-trade area and let stuff like this be handled by NATO.
Really instructive post Loco, thanks. And I'm sure your overall realpolitik solution is better than most others available or talked about.
However, before we allow the Russians to get away with it based on history perhaps you could comment on this. Ukraine was supposed to be an independent democratic state already. So the Russians had already lost control of Crimea, if we really believe that. But if not, if in fact the Russians were relaxed before, because Yanukovic was in fact their puppet whom they could rely on, well there's your problem. Those in Kiev and westwards sussed this out, and became very angry indeed.
Furthermore there is not a smidgin of evidence to suggest the new Ukraine regime was going to do anything to threaten Russian interests in the Crimea, was there? Crimea already has its own government. I understand that in the longer term the Russians were right to be concerned that Crimea could end up in an EU country, but that would take 15 years of uninterrupted progress. There's a danger that we allow history to be used as an excuse for outrageous and unjustified macho Russian aggression.
Really instructive post Loco, thanks. And I'm sure your overall realpolitik solution is better than most others available or talked about.
However, before we allow the Russians to get away with it based on history perhaps you could comment on this. Ukraine was supposed to be an independent democratic state already. So the Russians had already lost control of Crimea, if we really believe that. But if not, if in fact the Russians were relaxed before, because Yanukovic was in fact their puppet whom they could rely on, well there's your problem. Those in Kiev and westwards sussed this out, and became very angry indeed.
Furthermore there is not a smidgin of evidence to suggest the new Ukraine regime was going to do anything to threaten Russian interests in the Crimea, was there? Crimea already has its own government. I understand that in the longer term the Russians were right to be concerned that Crimea could end up in an EU country, but that would take 15 years of uninterrupted progress. There's a danger that we allow history to be used as an excuse for outrageous and unjustified macho Russian aggression.
The Russian saw and indeed see a Russian dominated federation of states much like the EU as the future for the former soviet states. Putin is in office to put the empire back together that is his raison d'etre. Hampered only by the fact that none of them want to play with the schoolyard bully any more. Given that they have only just broken free of the Russian yoke, they've been dominated by the Russian's for so long that hate is not too strong a word. Which is why he (Putin) has to pull the strings like a puppeteer with a marionette.
Where you're right is that the situation in the Crimea regarding control is as you say, probably no different than it was three weeks ago and maybe I have overstated that aspect. But the pressure has to be applied, the gas pipe knob has to be turned and turned again. The citizens of the Ukraine have publically rejected the Russian dream of an Asian Common Market, dominated by the beloved leader Mr Putin. The cost of that choice must be laid bare, in order that they see the futility in this stupid promise (sack the tosser that made it) to protect the sovereignty of the Ukraine.
Am I giving away the Crimea? Is it in our gift to protect, control, defend it? No, we have no influence there, we have no hope of that without full scale all out war, we cannot play this as a side show and win, if we made Ukraine a proxy it would destroy it. Are we prepared to do that, would we start or risk the start of a war to restore what was an autonomous region anyway back to the administrative control of the Ukraine? I don't think so and what's is more we would be right not to so. The population is for the most part Russian anyway and would remain stubbornly Nationalistic even if we or the Ukrainians did retain control. The point is the Russians will not give it up, like the missiles in Cuba this is a line they will not/cannot allow to be crossed.
So what do we do instead? What are our objectives? What can we achieve? We can take a real world view of things and we may have been able to ensure the rest of the Ukraine remained intact and grow our influence from there as you suggest, I suspect that chance has now been lost. We in the west and especially us and the US need to stop prancing around the world like spoiled brats stamping our feet every time we get out manoeuvred. You can hear the Russians laughing all the way to SE7 every time Obama goes on telly and lectures someone about invading other counties.
The same thing happened in Syria just a few short months ago, we had the power to make a change for the better in that situation too, not a perfect answer but one that would have saved lives and could have brought a difficult country to peace. Did we do it? No, we banged our human rights drum and shouted democracy from the rooftops and let the blood flow. Shame on us.
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Meanwhile we let Putin do what the f**k he wants because all of a sudden the West have had a bellyful......That's weak mate, Weak.
Putin in all honestly doesn't really want a war they can't really afford one, and a war with a neighbour that has the backing of Europe and the US along with NATO definitely piles on the pressure for him.
What Putin really wants is civil unrest in the Ukraine so he can pretend to be a big hero again and go wading in to protect his Russian people, more importantly the Crimean ports and bases,.... it's slightly backfired for Putin though, no one has made one shot in anger for his excuse to go in, yet now we have threats....it stinks to high heaven, Russia need sorting out over this.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Meanwhile we let Putin do what the f**k he wants because all of a sudden the West have had a bellyful......That's weak mate, Weak.
Putin in all honestly doesn't really want a war they can't really afford one, and a war with a neighbour that has the backing of Europe and the US along with NATO definitely piles on the pressure for him.
What Putin really wants is civil unrest in the Ukraine so he can pretend to be a big hero again and go wading in to protect his Russian people, more importantly the Crimean ports and bases,.... it's slightly backfired for Putin though, no one has made one shot in anger for his excuse to go in, yet now we have threats....it stinks to high heaven, Russia need sorting out over this.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
If you seriously think that Sarah Palin could put her finger on a map within 1000 miles of the Ukraine, let alone make a coherent statement regarding sensible American foreign policy on the matter, that's sad. Everything Sarah Palin knows about the complexity of Russian and Eastern European politics can be spray painted onto the back of a beer mat.
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Meanwhile we let Putin do what the f**k he wants because all of a sudden the West have had a bellyful......That's weak mate, Weak.
Putin in all honestly doesn't really want a war they can't really afford one, and a war with a neighbour that has the backing of Europe and the US along with NATO definitely piles on the pressure for him.
What Putin really wants is civil unrest in the Ukraine so he can pretend to be a big hero again and go wading in to protect his Russian people, more importantly the Crimean ports and bases,.... it's slightly backfired for Putin though, no one has made one shot in anger for his excuse to go in, yet now we have threats....it stinks to high heaven, Russia need sorting out over this.
I'm interested to know what you think we could do about the situation that would make a difference on the ground in the Ukraine. This isn't Sadam Hussein and his tin pot army, this is a world super power with vast & sophisticated resources at his disposal which if unleashed would cause massive loss of life all over the globe. Mr Putin does as he wishes because he has a big army that says he can and if you want to tell him he cant, then you're going to need a large pair of bollox and an even bigger army.
The military route is not the one to take. Lets all calm down and ask ourselves what are objectives are. I'm pretty sure it's not to save the Crimea that battle was lost long since.
2 things: 1) The UK should not interfere politically and 2) NO AID in any form, cash, weapons, food; nothing should be sent to the Ukraine .. IT IS NOT OUR PROBLEM
Meanwhile we let Putin do what the f**k he wants because all of a sudden the West have had a bellyful......That's weak mate, Weak.
Putin in all honestly doesn't really want a war they can't really afford one, and a war with a neighbour that has the backing of Europe and the US along with NATO definitely piles on the pressure for him.
What Putin really wants is civil unrest in the Ukraine so he can pretend to be a big hero again and go wading in to protect his Russian people, more importantly the Crimean ports and bases,.... it's slightly backfired for Putin though, no one has made one shot in anger for his excuse to go in, yet now we have threats....it stinks to high heaven, Russia need sorting out over this.
And your solution is ?
My solution? I don't think anyone in the world has one ATM, lol, but I do have an opinion.... Putin will end up isolating himself and that will harm him more.
May be we should talk loudly at him (Putin) and if that don't work we should do it again.
Russia will do what she wants with or without out our protests, they are a super power with a track record of doing so. We the US and our EU partners have a very poor hand to play with and the Russians know this. We will have to swallow and may be the whole thing, with a bit of luck, there wont be more bloodshed.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
If you seriously think that Sarah Palin could put her finger on a map within 1000 miles of the Ukraine, let alone make a coherent statement regarding sensible American foreign policy on the matter, that's sad. Everything Sarah Palin knows about the complexity of Russian and Eastern European politics can be spray painted onto the back of a beer mat.
You ask what we can do. I agree with you that a knee jerk military reaction is out of the question. But funny enough Operation Pig is voicing the fears and frustration of people in countries like this one and Poland. They think we, especially in Britain, don't understand what the Russian State machine is really all about.
David Cameron seemed to be starting on the right road yesterday by talking about visa restrictions. Now we learn that in fact he is anxious not to do anything at all to " threaten" the workings of the City. This of course is typically British. Go around the world banging on about corruption and then quietly allowing " strategic" British companies to bribe their way into defense contracts in the very countries we pretend to wish to democratize. I won't mention names, but you can guess, and I have heard this kind of shit first hand at Embassy parties.
I don't know about you, but I find that pretty disgusting.
I've been warning people for years that we should stop talking about Abramovic as "Roman", the cuddly Russian who just wants the best for his "beloved" Chelsea. How come his mysterious riches allow him to swan in out and around the UK uninhibited while ordinary Russians still struggle to get a visa for a two week holiday? How come he is a lowed to have a mysterious "non dom" status for tax purposes, when he has far monstrously more interests than I have in the UK, and I still have to pay UK tax?
I'll say it again. Don't just slow down the visa process. Launch an immediate tax investigation into all the suspiciously rich Russians who have property in London. There will be tit for tat responses in Moscow, but the fact is, it really matters to the small group of people who control Russia that they can swan around London, and educate their kids at UK boarding schools etc. Respect is what they crave. If the hair raising story I heard a few weeks ago about the links between Abramovic and Putin are even half true, then taking such action would hurt Putin in a very direct way. And we should have done this ages ago.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
If you seriously think that Sarah Palin could put her finger on a map within 1000 miles of the Ukraine, let alone make a coherent statement regarding sensible American foreign policy on the matter, that's sad. Everything Sarah Palin knows about the complexity of Russian and Eastern European politics can be spray painted onto the back of a beer mat.
....and yet she was right.
...my point being that 'she' wasn't 'right' about anything, any more than my phone would be 'right' if I used the voice feature to ask it a question - the answer would be sent back via a Google search, whilst Palin's was drip fed to her by the tea party wonks who control her. The only thing she is to be congratulated on is remembering what she's been told. Probably more difficult to do than you'd think with all that crazy filling up your head.
Who predicted in 2008 that then-senator Obama’s reaction to Russia invading Georgia that year would “encourage” it “to invade Ukraine next”? Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
If you seriously think that Sarah Palin could put her finger on a map within 1000 miles of the Ukraine, let alone make a coherent statement regarding sensible American foreign policy on the matter, that's sad. Everything Sarah Palin knows about the complexity of Russian and Eastern European politics can be spray painted onto the back of a beer mat.
Anyone who wants the truth about the Wasilla Hillbilly just google "Steve Schmidt 60 Minutes" and you will get absolute comedy gold about the woman that John "Country First" McCain had the bare faced fucking cheek to try and put one heartbeat away from from being POTUS. She is thicker than dog shit.
Not sure what the answer is but I suspect that we would be in a much better position diplomatically if we hadn't ceded control of our own energy production due to a combination of political ideology and a desire by successive governments to dodge the decision on nuclear power for decades.
Whilst Putin still has his hand on the gas tap the likes of ourselves and Germany are pretty much hamstrung in terms of larger scale sanctions (as per the doppy aid showing the briefing document going into No 10!). Plus we as a nation are up to our dangles in Rubles in The City so that option's largely closed.
Hence the shift towards targeted action against influential, high profile, Russian individuals with lots of UK assets. Now does anyone know anybody fitting that description?
Comments
It is our problem, it should be every nations problem. Don't agree we should go it alone, but think the UN (and therefore every country) needs to stand up to Russia.
Poland says Russian appeasement not an option: "History shows that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time."
However, before we allow the Russians to get away with it based on history perhaps you could comment on this. Ukraine was supposed to be an independent democratic state already. So the Russians had already lost control of Crimea, if we really believe that. But if not, if in fact the Russians were relaxed before, because Yanukovic was in fact their puppet whom they could rely on, well there's your problem. Those in Kiev and westwards sussed this out, and became very angry indeed.
Furthermore there is not a smidgin of evidence to suggest the new Ukraine regime was going to do anything to threaten Russian interests in the Crimea, was there? Crimea already has its own government. I understand that in the longer term the Russians were right to be concerned that Crimea could end up in an EU country, but that would take 15 years of uninterrupted progress. There's a danger that we allow history to be used as an excuse for outrageous and unjustified macho Russian aggression.
Where you're right is that the situation in the Crimea regarding control is as you say, probably no different than it was three weeks ago and maybe I have overstated that aspect. But the pressure has to be applied, the gas pipe knob has to be turned and turned again. The citizens of the Ukraine have publically rejected the Russian dream of an Asian Common Market, dominated by the beloved leader Mr Putin. The cost of that choice must be laid bare, in order that they see the futility in this stupid promise (sack the tosser that made it) to protect the sovereignty of the Ukraine.
Am I giving away the Crimea? Is it in our gift to protect, control, defend it? No, we have no influence there, we have no hope of that without full scale all out war, we cannot play this as a side show and win, if we made Ukraine a proxy it would destroy it. Are we prepared to do that, would we start or risk the start of a war to restore what was an autonomous region anyway back to the administrative control of the Ukraine? I don't think so and what's is more we would be right not to so. The population is for the most part Russian anyway and would remain stubbornly Nationalistic even if we or the Ukrainians did retain control. The point is the Russians will not give it up, like the missiles in Cuba this is a line they will not/cannot allow to be crossed.
So what do we do instead? What are our objectives? What can we achieve? We can take a real world view of things and we may have been able to ensure the rest of the Ukraine remained intact and grow our influence from there as you suggest, I suspect that chance has now been lost. We in the west and especially us and the US need to stop prancing around the world like spoiled brats stamping our feet every time we get out manoeuvred. You can hear the Russians laughing all the way to SE7 every time Obama goes on telly and lectures someone about invading other counties.
The same thing happened in Syria just a few short months ago, we had the power to make a change for the better in that situation too, not a perfect answer but one that would have saved lives and could have brought a difficult country to peace. Did we do it? No, we banged our human rights drum and shouted democracy from the rooftops and let the blood flow. Shame on us.
Putin in all honestly doesn't really want a war they can't really afford one, and a war with a neighbour that has the backing of Europe and the US along with NATO definitely piles on the pressure for him.
What Putin really wants is civil unrest in the Ukraine so he can pretend to be a big hero again and go wading in to protect his Russian people, more importantly the Crimean ports and bases,.... it's slightly backfired for Putin though, no one has made one shot in anger for his excuse to go in, yet now we have threats....it stinks to high heaven, Russia need sorting out over this.
Yes, it was the "world class idiot" (to quote the even bigger idiot Martin Bashir) Sarah Palin.
The military route is not the one to take. Lets all calm down and ask ourselves what are objectives are. I'm pretty sure it's not to save the Crimea that battle was lost long since.
We all need to toughen up on him.
Russia will do what she wants with or without out our protests, they are a super power with a track record of doing so. We the US and our EU partners have a very poor hand to play with and the Russians know this.
We will have to swallow and may be the whole thing, with a bit of luck, there wont be more bloodshed.
You ask what we can do. I agree with you that a knee jerk military reaction is out of the question. But funny enough Operation Pig is voicing the fears and frustration of people in countries like this one and Poland. They think we, especially in Britain, don't understand what the Russian State machine is really all about.
David Cameron seemed to be starting on the right road yesterday by talking about visa restrictions. Now we learn that in fact he is anxious not to do anything at all to " threaten" the workings of the City. This of course is typically British. Go around the world banging on about corruption and then quietly allowing " strategic" British companies to bribe their way into defense contracts in the very countries we pretend to wish to democratize. I won't mention names, but you can guess, and I have heard this kind of shit first hand at Embassy parties.
I don't know about you, but I find that pretty disgusting.
I've been warning people for years that we should stop talking about Abramovic as "Roman", the cuddly Russian who just wants the best for his "beloved" Chelsea. How come his mysterious riches allow him to swan in out and around the UK uninhibited while ordinary Russians still struggle to get a visa for a two week holiday? How come he is a lowed to have a mysterious "non dom" status for tax purposes, when he has far monstrously more interests than I have in the UK, and I still have to pay UK tax?
I'll say it again. Don't just slow down the visa process. Launch an immediate tax investigation into all the suspiciously rich Russians who have property in London. There will be tit for tat responses in Moscow, but the fact is, it really matters to the small group of people who control Russia that they can swan around London, and educate their kids at UK boarding schools etc. Respect is what they crave. If the hair raising story I heard a few weeks ago about the links between Abramovic and Putin are even half true, then taking such action would hurt Putin in a very direct way. And we should have done this ages ago.
Whilst Putin still has his hand on the gas tap the likes of ourselves and Germany are pretty much hamstrung in terms of larger scale sanctions (as per the doppy aid showing the briefing document going into No 10!). Plus we as a nation are up to our dangles in Rubles in The City so that option's largely closed.
Hence the shift towards targeted action against influential, high profile, Russian individuals with lots of UK assets. Now does anyone know anybody fitting that description?
Another looney that got it right