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Sport of Kings discussion thread
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Bob's Boy declared for Wetherby (2.00pm) tomorrow.
From Greatrex - Bob’s Boy has been very good since having a short break and I would hope he puts in a good performance tomorrow at Wetherby.
I would be keen for him to continue over the next couple of months, either over hurdles or on the flat.
Has a decent chance tomorrow but wouldn't recommend a maximum bet!2 -
Donkey.bobmunro said:Bob's Boy declared for Wetherby (2.00pm) tomorrow.
From Greatrex - Bob’s Boy has been very good since having a short break and I would hope he puts in a good performance tomorrow at Wetherby.
I would be keen for him to continue over the next couple of months, either over hurdles or on the flat.
Has a decent chance tomorrow but wouldn't recommend a maximum bet!3 -
I'm sure that it will pop in when you least expect it to. Might have to be a low grade handicap or seller to do so but at least it does have some sort of engine.bobmunro said:
Donkey.bobmunro said:Bob's Boy declared for Wetherby (2.00pm) tomorrow.
From Greatrex - Bob’s Boy has been very good since having a short break and I would hope he puts in a good performance tomorrow at Wetherby.
I would be keen for him to continue over the next couple of months, either over hurdles or on the flat.
Has a decent chance tomorrow but wouldn't recommend a maximum bet!
Perhaps asking Tinkler to hold it up more rather than being in the front rank all the way round might help. It is a bit of a free going sort but anything that can be conserved at the end might help.
If it's going to try and make all then I would suggest taking it to Fakenham or Bangor on quick ground and adopt those "catch me if you can" tactics.
All isn't lost.1 -
Going to Brighton on Saturday, just checked the runners.
Second race 17.05 No 1 is Katrine and No 2 is Little Miss Daisy.
Dilemma, do I back them both or maybe a reversed forecast or maybe leave well alone?2 -
His hurdle handicap mark should drop after today - so perhaps a class 6 beckons!!Addick Addict said:
I'm sure that it will pop in when you least expect it to. Might have to be a low grade handicap or seller to do so but at least it does have some sort of engine.bobmunro said:
Donkey.bobmunro said:Bob's Boy declared for Wetherby (2.00pm) tomorrow.
From Greatrex - Bob’s Boy has been very good since having a short break and I would hope he puts in a good performance tomorrow at Wetherby.
I would be keen for him to continue over the next couple of months, either over hurdles or on the flat.
Has a decent chance tomorrow but wouldn't recommend a maximum bet!
Perhaps asking Tinkler to hold it up more rather than being in the front rank all the way round might help. It is a bit of a free going sort but anything that can be conserved at the end might help.
If it's going to try and make all then I would suggest taking it to Fakenham or Bangor on quick ground and adopt those "catch me if you can" tactics.
All isn't lost.
I personally would like to see him back on the flat - mile and a half or thereabouts. I'm still not convinced he gets 2 miles.0 -
His only win was on good/firm so he may improve in the summer on this going .
He was beaten quite quickly today but he hadn't run for two months so may have needed the race .0 -
We went to Chelmsford today. What a strange little race track.
It was ok, but we won't be rushing back, despite being up on the day.0 -
Anyone off to Lingfield tomorrow for AW finals day? Should be a good meeting0
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Fletchers Flyer for the Irish national on Monday0
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Irish National is a joke. 46% of the runners owned by Gigginstown.0
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That will be because Phil Smith isn't handicapper.ValleyGary said:Irish National is a joke. 46% of the runners owned by Gigginstown.
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So, for the Irish National tomorrow (5pm), a quick & dirty stat elimination based on 10 winners of Good~Yielding ground winners of Irish Nats from 2001 (warning - one or two near-missers defy some of these stats).
WEIGHT - allowing for jockey claims, eliminate all with >10.13 and all those 10.08~10.13 that have not won or gone close in 3m4f+ chase or run creditably at 4m+
Line through: all of top 12 except for TIGER ROLL
AGE - eliminate all >10y-o
Line through: Raz De Maree, Double 7, Dedigout, 1st Lieutenant, Bless The Wings
DAYS SINCE RUN - eliminate all>87 days
Line through: Shutthefrontdoor
RUNS IN SEASON - at least 3
Line through: Fletchers Flyer
WIN IN DECENT FIELD SIZE – win in 13+ runner race under rules
Line through: General Principle
LAST RUN - completed
Line through: Thunder & Roses, Measureofmydreams, Stellar Notion, Rogue Angel, Arbor De Vie, Bonny Kate, Sabremont
LEAVES: TIGER ROLL (16/1), ABOLITIONIST (12/1), BAS DES ILES (33/1), HAYMOUNT (12/1)
Shame there aren’t more longer shots. As a dyed-in-the-wool each-way punter (you have to be for marathon chases IMHO), it’s uneconomic to have 4 at these prices so who to lose?
Ground – Only Bas Des Iles is unproven on a sound surface. Being French-bred one might suspect that she’d prefer it soft but she’s never run over a trip on good ground and she may simply be in need of a stamina-test. As a 5 y-o, she handled the argy-bargy of the Irish Nat nicely last year (15L 6th) and ran respectably in the Welsh Nat (23L 5th) on less-testing than usual ground and, at the price, I’m reluctant to ditch her.
Relative weights - Haymount was 4L 3rd to Tiger Roll in the 4m chase at the Festival in March at level weights but has a 6lb advantage tomorrow (net of claims). Also, though Rathbawn Prince had run 14 times in the season prior to his close 2nd in the 2001 Irish Nat, Tiger Roll has had a long old season with 11 runs to date (no winner or near-misser in Good-ground Irish Nat with >8 season runs since 2001).
So, my shillings will be carried by (all 5 places each way):
• ABOLITIONIST (12/1)
• BAS DES ILES (33/1)
• HAYMOUNT (12/1)
OK, 2 women jockies but 3 have won it before, including of course Katie Walsh (Bas Des Iles tomorrow)
EDIT - Double Seven a NR - Oscar Knight (first reserve) will run.
Though he passes all of the above screens, Oscar Knight is 0 from 5 in 3m+ PTPs or races under rules, incl x2 on a decent surface. Only 1 of at least last 16 Irish Nat winners (Organisedconfusion in 2011, who was 0 from 1) had no win at 3m+. It's true that Haymount is 0 from 4 but he was a strong-finishing 3.75L 3rd in the 4m chase at the Festival. Oscar Knight is bred to get a trip and can't be ruled out but I'm happy to go with the percentages and pass him by........famous last words
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Peanuts, Peanuts, Peanuts.1
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Paddy Power & Sky are paying 1/5 to 6 places.0
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Hmm, not sure if there's been a jockey change or I just screwed up but a 7lb claimer on board and ticking all other boxes (won a 3m PTP), I've added TELL US MORE at 100/1 to my team.
Sorry folks - I guess law of averages said I had to have one of O'Leary's brigade (pink cap)
ádh mór0 -
Non runner according to skybet.PeanutsMolloy said:Hmm, not sure if there's been a jockey change or I just screwed up but a 7lb claimer on board and ticking all other boxes (won a 3m PTP), I've added TELL US MORE at 100/1 to my team.
Sorry folks - I guess law of averages said I had to have one of O'Leary's brigade (pink cap)
ádh mór0 -
Got to do Raz De Maree after it was brought down in the GN.1
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Baie Des Iles out as well.paulbaconsarnie said:
Non runner according to skybet.PeanutsMolloy said:Hmm, not sure if there's been a jockey change or I just screwed up but a 7lb claimer on board and ticking all other boxes (won a 3m PTP), I've added TELL US MORE at 100/1 to my team.
Sorry folks - I guess law of averages said I had to have one of O'Leary's brigade (pink cap)
ádh mór0 -
Best of luck AA, you old trend-crusher.Addick Addict said:Got to do Raz De Maree after it was brought down in the GN.
Brown Lad (Fairyhouse's Red Rum, so to speak) in 1978 was the last winner older than 11 and none has even finished within 5L of a winner this century.
Really disappointed for RdM last week. The ground wasn't in his favour but he got unusually het up before the off - Lord Windermere's farting about and the false start didn't help. Can't help feel it played a part in his UR, as Cause of Causes seemed to have had the harder job to dodge the faller at Bechers ahead of RdM, who then gave the jock no chance swerving to the left.
Would love it if the old boy came home in front today but, if the age trend's to be smashed, I fancy Bless The Wings is the one on this ground. He'd have certainly been on my GN ticket if he'd have lined up and looks inviting with only 10.02 - but 14/1 is less so.
In any event, I shall stick with the stats and my remaining 2.
All the best.
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My 2 both taking a buddhist, zen-like approach.
Poor old Raz de Maree - saddle slipped early.0 - Sponsored links:
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OUR DUKE - most weight carried to win since Commanche Court in 2000
BLESS THE WINGS - 2nd again, great run
ABOLITIONIST - looked like might get there but winner too good and mistake at the last cost him 2nd
THUNDER & ROSES
Oh well, breakeven.
Nice one Jessica & Robbie....again!1 -
Unseated when impeded then saddle slips. They're just trying to get a price on it next time!PeanutsMolloy said:My 2 both taking a buddhist, zen-like approach.
Poor old Raz de Maree - saddle slipped early.2 -
I saw it on the front page of the RP and almost choked on my cornflakes in delight.PeanutsMolloy said:
Wonder if he'll look back and think how great it was to placed in all those Grand Nationals - or wishing that he had ridden them to win.3 -
Hoots mon, it’s the Scottish marathon tomorrow at 3.55 - going currently Good to Soft.
I have an abysmal record in this but I shall give it a lash as usual.
A quick and dirty stat-elimination, based on the winners and near-missers <4L last 16 runnings (all on GS~GF):
1. WEIGHT
Line through those with insufficient credentials to carry their allotted weight:
• all top 7
• Straidnahanna
• Lessons In Milan
• Another Hero
2. AGE
Line through 12 y-o+ and those <8 or 11 without right credentials:
• Premier Bond
• Benbens
• Al Co
• Vintage Clouds
• Sugar Baron
• Portrait King (sorry old fella – please prove me wrong)
• Alvarado
• Man With Van
3. INEXPERIENCE
Line through:
• Battle Of Shiloh
4. JUMPING CONCERNS
Line through:
• Henry Parri Morgan
• Firebird Flyer
• Cogry
5. LACK OF QUALITY
Line through:
• Dawson City
• Father Edward
6. TOO FEW RUNS IN SEASON
Line through:
• Trustan Times
7. TOO LONG SINCE LAST RUN
Line through:
• Shotgun Paddy
• Gone Too Far
• Full Jack (reserve)
LEAVES:
• SOUTHFIELD ROYALE 10/1
• DANCING SHADOW 33/1
• BLAKEMOUNT 50/1
I shall be backing all 3 (probably win only for Southfield Royale) but - subjective view – I seriously like BLAKEMOUNT’s pedigree (should relish the decent going – Presenting his sire, Supreme Leader the dam sire) and profile for this.
Never fallen or failed to complete in 17 starts under rules. Just 6L behind One For Arthur at level weights at 3m as a novice chaser. Saw off last year’s Warwick National winner Russe Blanc in Feb over a testing 26f before running well but not quite getting home in the recent Midlands National under 11.04 on Soft. Should handle the trip better (1.5f shorter) on a sounder ground with 10.12 (2lbs lower mark).
Famous last words but 50/1 looks screaming each-way value IMHO.
Edit: Only Bob's mob still offering 50s for Blakemount
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In Peanuts we trust. Legend.1
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Cheers meldrew, though the proof of the pudding is in the eating, as they say, and my previous Scottish desserts have proved thoroughly indigestible. Always need luck on your side in a National but I'm hopeful for a couple of today's offerings.meldrew66 said:In Peanuts we trust. Legend.
Blakemount is top price 33s this morning - couldn't resist a second bite of 50s last night ;0)
As always, main wish is that all 2 and 4-legged participants return safe and sound.
Here's tae ye!1 -
Peanuts nice work.
Got top 6 with SkyBet.2 -
Sorry folks, looked good for a long way but only 6th.
Great back-to-back win for Vicente with a big weight.
Curtain comes down on another set of spring Nationals. See ya next time.2 -
LOL. Nice one Gary. I got greedy and Bob's mob done me with just 5 places. C'est la vie.ValleyGary said:Peanuts nice work.
Got top 6 with SkyBet.0
