super Saturday for trainer Christian Williams .. Ist and 2nd in the 85 Grand + Kempton Coral Trophy and the winner of the 42 Grand+ Eider at Newcastle .. nice to see unsung trainers taking some big pots .. have the likes of Henderson and Nicholls too many horses to look after, do they charge their owners too much, do owners with just one or two quality horses get a better deal with less well known trainers ? .. the 'big boys' still train a LOT of big race winners but the smaller stables are catching up
The likes of Nicholls, Henderson and Skelton, at various times in the last couple of months, been in poor form given the calibre of animal in their care. For example, since the 10th February, Henderson has had 42 runners of which just 3 have won, half a dozen have been placed and no less than 13 have been pulled up. These horses, by virtue of being at Seven Barrows, all have serious engines and for 25% of them not to get round suggests all isn't well. Just 7 of Nicholls' last 50 runners have been first past the post. Only 6 of Skelton's last 50 runners have been successful. When one considers the small field sizes in a lot of the races they are running in and that these stables do run against each other, their respective strike rates are considerably lower than one would expect.
These stables might, of course, be preparing themselves for the big festivals in the months to come but I have been looking to oppose them and will continue to do so 'til they show some sign of an improvement in form and concentrate on those that are consistently running well - 15 of McCain's last 50 runners have won and no less than 17 of Rebecca Menzies' last 28 runners have finished first (10) of second (7). There are many others too including the aforementioned Christian Williams.
The biggest value to be had will always be from the smaller, less exposed stables simply because they are discounted by the general betting public. The same horse with a Paul Nicholls might go off 3/1 if under his care but two or three times that price from an unexposed stable.
Nicholls is starting to have a few winners. Henderson hasn't had a runner since Saturday and his next ones are on Thursday (in itself unusual) when he has three runners at Ludlow. With just the one winner from 23 in the last couple of weeks or so, those of us holding decent ante post wagers on the likes of Shishkin and Constitution Hill would like to see some evidence that the stable isn't still under a cloud.
Well Henderson had three at Ludlow today. The first one, Barbados Blue, was pulled up in the 2.00 which was a four runner race - having never been pulled up in its first dozen career races, this is the second consecutive time it has done so. The second runner, Go Chique, was due to run in the 2.30 but was pulled at 1.25 and the third, Balkeo, was also taken out but this time at 2.17 i.e. immediately after Barbados Blue had rune so poorly. The reason for both was given as the ground.
Now we know Henderson likes to look after his horses but the fact remains that they haven't been running well (one winner and four placed with10 pulled up from his last 24 runners) and he is looking for an excuse not to run them rather than to do so. Another acid test will be the next two days at Newbury, a track where he loves to run his horses that have a real chance of winning. He has four tomorrow and two on Saturday including Buveur D'Air. I just hope that most of them run some sort of race.
Update - Henderson had two in the 3.30. Neither were fancied to win but Commodore Miller, despite being 20/1 was actually third favourite and finished last of 10 and his stablemate, Rudy Caprice, finished just one place in front of him. They were beaten a total of 104 and 65 lengths respectively and even taking out the front two in the market who finished in that order (30/100 & 9/4) they ended up 89 and 50 lengths behind the third placed horse.
It will be very interesting to see how Henderson's two entries run later, particularly Touchy Feely in the 5.05 as this is the 7/2 third favourite and clearly fancied to run a race in the bumper.
Scarpia in the 4.05 was friendless in the market, looked like he was going to run a race turning into the home straight in 4th but then hit a brick wall and finished stone cold last last of the finishers, walking over the line in the process.
Oh my word. Touch Feely was all over the winner and traded at 1.07 in running but was as green as grass and ran right away from the whip in the final furlong to the extent that it took out one horse and allowed another to come through and win. Will possibly be demoted though that would have to be to 4th and makes it less than likely. A ban for jockey Waley-Cohen is likely though.
Touchy Feely was the winner on merit and that was a much more promising run from a Henderson inmate. Hopefully we'll see a couple more of them tomorrow.
His horses are running well but the feat of the day was achieved by Nick Alexander at Ayr - 2,193/1 fivefold and he didn't even any have runners in the other two races
His horses are running well but the feat of the day was achieved by Nick Alexander at Ayr - 2,193/1 fivefold and he didn't even any have runners in the other two races
For what it's worth (zero, of course) I completely agree. As we've seen with every other sport that looks only to suckle on TV's tit (forgive the simile), the supposed benefits for the event itself will ultimately prove self-defeating but the consequences for the sport will be further-reaching and damaging. As always, the big boys will thrive, the rest can (apparently) go to hell.
For what it's worth (zero, of course) I completely agree. As we've seen with every other sport that looks only to suckle on TV's tit (forgive the simile), the supposed benefits for the event itself will ultimately prove self-defeating but the consequences for the sport will be further-reaching and damaging. As always, the big boys will thrive, the rest can (apparently) go to hell.
There should be a clarion call to go back to three days rather than extend to five.
Have the English trainers given up at Cheltenham? The National Hunt Chase, for example, has 7 runners!!!! Of those, Rebecca Curtis has 2 and the other 5 are Irish trained. I remember when this race used to have 20 plus runners and it used to be run over 4 miles instead of the revised shorter trip so one would have thought that this would entice more and not less runners.
For what it's worth (zero, of course) I completely agree. As we've seen with every other sport that looks only to suckle on TV's tit (forgive the simile), the supposed benefits for the event itself will ultimately prove self-defeating but the consequences for the sport will be further-reaching and damaging. As always, the big boys will thrive, the rest can (apparently) go to hell.
There should be a clarion call to go back to three days rather than extend to five.
I made this point on here somewhere years back .. diluted cream soon reverts to milk .. second thought, that is a terrible analogy
Have the English trainers given up at Cheltenham? The National Hunt Chase, for example, has 7 runners!!!! Of those, Rebecca Curtis has 2 and the other 5 are Irish trained. I remember when this race used to have 20 plus runners and it used to be run over 4 miles instead of the revised shorter trip so one would have thought that this would entice more and not less runners.
there were big prizes on offer at Sandown this last Saturday .. I suspect that some trainers, especially perhaps Nicholls are not so obsessed with Cheltenham as was the case for 'big' trainers in the past, it's the money not the glory that is important and just before Cheltenham there are fewer Irish horses to contend with, though of course the biggest prize on Saturday was won by an Irish horse ridden by a Welsh jockey at 20/1 !
anyone taking on Honeysuckle ? .. she still has the 7lb advantage of course as does Epatante who I've had a small punt on and I'll have a couple on Adagio who suffers from extreme seconditis .. worth a quid e/w
Have the English trainers given up at Cheltenham? The National Hunt Chase, for example, has 7 runners!!!! Of those, Rebecca Curtis has 2 and the other 5 are Irish trained. I remember when this race used to have 20 plus runners and it used to be run over 4 miles instead of the revised shorter trip so one would have thought that this would entice more and not less runners.
I think that will still be a very good race with 6 horses with a live chance all ridden by decent amat jockeys. In years gone by the majority of the runners had no chance due their limited ability or that of the pilot.
Have the English trainers given up at Cheltenham? The National Hunt Chase, for example, has 7 runners!!!! Of those, Rebecca Curtis has 2 and the other 5 are Irish trained. I remember when this race used to have 20 plus runners and it used to be run over 4 miles instead of the revised shorter trip so one would have thought that this would entice more and not less runners.
I think that will still be a very good race with 6 horses with a live chance all ridden by decent amat jockeys. In years gone by the majority of the runners had no chance due their limited ability or that of the pilot.
Do agree with the quality and it should be an excellent race albeit that, with my ante post voucher on Run Wild Fred, I hope that the horse hacks up. It is a bad race for favourites though.
Where I would disagree, though, is with the number of horses that did have a chance of running a race What the reduction in numbers has done is reduced what a lot of punters do enjoy is finding those double figure placed or even winner of the race. There have been any number of them over the years (last 10 years SPs with prices of first 4 and number of runners in brackets - not a handicap but with large field sizes the norm is now for some bookmakers to offer 4 plus places for even non handicaps):
You could probably have got 10/1 plus for 7 of the last 10 winners and 22 of the 40 horses in the first four returned double figure SPs. The races have been littered with potential young improvers as evidenced by Tiger Roll who won it in 2017 at 16/1 and was probably rated two stones lighter than its highest rating.
Have the English trainers given up at Cheltenham? The National Hunt Chase, for example, has 7 runners!!!! Of those, Rebecca Curtis has 2 and the other 5 are Irish trained. I remember when this race used to have 20 plus runners and it used to be run over 4 miles instead of the revised shorter trip so one would have thought that this would entice more and not less runners.
I think that will still be a very good race with 6 horses with a live chance all ridden by decent amat jockeys. In years gone by the majority of the runners had no chance due their limited ability or that of the pilot.
Do agree with the quality and it should be an excellent race albeit that, with my ante post voucher on Run Wild Fred, I hope that the horse hacks up. It is a bad race for favourites though.
Where I would disagree, though, is with the number of horses that did have a chance of running a race What the reduction in numbers has done is reduced what a lot of punters do enjoy is finding those double figure placed or even winner of the race. There have been any number of them over the years (last 10 years SPs with prices of first 4 and number of runners in brackets - not a handicap but with large field sizes the norm is now for some bookmakers to offer 4 plus places for even non handicaps):
You could probably have got 10/1 plus for 7 of the last 10 winners and 22 of the 40 horses in the first four returned double figure SPs. The races have been littered with potential young improvers as evidenced by Tiger Roll who won it in 2017 at 16/1 and was probably rated two stones lighter than its highest rating.
Big shout for ACHILLE in tomorrow's Midlands National - an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow. Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare unexposed beyond 3m but victorious on testing at 3 miles and typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb. From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced a G1 flat winner at 10f. Having a rare handicap outing, carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate. Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
Big shout for ACHILLE in tomorrow's Midlands National - an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow. Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare unexposed beyond 3m but victorious on testing at 3 miles and typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb. From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced a G1 flat winner at 10f. Having a rare handicap outing, carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate. Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
With 6+ places up for grabs, at the price I'm going to take a chance that the ground will ride decent enough for GWENCILY BERBAS (33/1) and add him to my team for the Midlands National at 3.35pm. Ran creditably when 5th (13L) in Feb's 32f Eider Chase on GS, the form of which was given a boost by both 1st and 2nd in Tuesday's Ultima (via Eclair Surf). Indeed he's shown his best form in all 4 of his chases to date at 25f+ (2 wins and 1 near-miss plus the Eider). He'll be 5lbs out of the handicap but carry the minimum 10.00 with Tom Scu on board, who steered him to win at 25/1 in a big field handicap at Exeter in Dec over 30f, also on GS (Exeter's undulations make it a stiff 30f). David Pipe had 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday, including a 25/1 shot.
He's hit the crossbar in big staying handicaps so many times (I still reckon he'd have been in the mix in the 2018 GN if he hadn't got badly hampered and departed early), it would be great to see the old boy score at last. Good luck.
Big shout for ACHILLE in tomorrow's Midlands National - an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow. Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare unexposed beyond 3m but victorious on testing at 3 miles and typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb. From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced a G1 flat winner at 10f. Having a rare handicap outing, carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate. Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
With 6+ places up for grabs, at the price I'm going to take a chance that the ground will ride decent enough for GWENCILY BERBAS (33/1) and add him to my team for the Midlands National at 3.35pm. Ran creditably when 5th (13L) in Feb's 32f Eider Chase on GS, the form of which was given a boost by both 1st and 2nd in Tuesday's Ultima (via Eclair Surf). Indeed he's shown his best form in all 4 of his chases to date at 25f+ (2 wins and 1 near-miss plus the Eider). He'll be 5lbs out of the handicap but carry the minimum 10.00 with Tom Scu on board, who steered him to win at 25/1 in a big field handicap at Exeter in Dec over 30f, also on GS (Exeter's undulations make it a stiff 30f). David Pipe had 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday, including a 25/1 shot.
Always a big ask with topweight in a marathon handicap but 25/1 (6 places) for YALA ENKI on Soft over 34f is just plain nuts IMHO. 2 runs, 2 wins this season, well rested since last. Same OR159 as when close 3rd under topweight in the last season's Welsh GN. Excluding the GN, he's notched 5 wins and 5 places in 11 chases at 27.5f+ (the only miss coming on Good ground) Going for multiple frame-makers with a 4-strong team.
Comfortable win for Screaming Colours, under Connor Orr (also regular partner of Enjoy D'Allen), 10L clear of Young Dev, Time To Get Up and El Paso Wood. Momella stayed on stoutly for 5th. Achille passed the line 2nd but sadly without Hugh Nugent (bizarrely unseated on the flat setting out on the last circuit, going well in 2nd when his stirrup leather broke).
Big shout for ACHILLE in tomorrow's Midlands National - an absolute e/w steal at 18s (7 places Skybet) IMHO Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow. Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare unexposed beyond 3m but victorious on testing at 3 miles and typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb. From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced a G1 flat winner at 10f. Having a rare handicap outing, carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate. Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
With 6+ places up for grabs, at the price I'm going to take a chance that the ground will ride decent enough for GWENCILY BERBAS (33/1) and add him to my team for the Midlands National at 3.35pm. Ran creditably when 5th (13L) in Feb's 32f Eider Chase on GS, the form of which was given a boost by both 1st and 2nd in Tuesday's Ultima (via Eclair Surf). Indeed he's shown his best form in all 4 of his chases to date at 25f+ (2 wins and 1 near-miss plus the Eider). He'll be 5lbs out of the handicap but carry the minimum 10.00 with Tom Scu on board, who steered him to win at 25/1 in a big field handicap at Exeter in Dec over 30f, also on GS (Exeter's undulations make it a stiff 30f). David Pipe had 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday, including a 25/1 shot.
Always a big ask with topweight in a marathon handicap but 25/1 (6 places) for YALA ENKI on Soft over 34f is just plain nuts IMHO. 2 runs, 2 wins this season, well rested since last. Same OR159 as when close 3rd under topweight in the last season's Welsh GN. Excluding the GN, he's notched 5 wins and 5 places in 11 chases at 27.5f+ (the only miss coming on Good ground) Going for multiple frame-makers with a 4-strong team.
Yala was pulled up quite early yesterday .. perhaps Frost should forget about letting him rush into an early lead and let him relax a bit in midfield and then go through the gears nearer the finish for a change
Sky Bet, Bastards. Just received an email saying they are taking away all my free bets and cash credits. I’m up about £1000 with them over the last few years. My Bets are normally just £5. How can they be allowed to do this. So annoying.
Sky Bet, Bastards. Just received an email saying they are taking away all my free bets and cash credits. I’m up about £1000 with them over the last few years. My Bets are normally just £5. How can they be allowed to do this. So annoying.
Think your lucky they haven't closed your account. Lol
Sky Bet, Bastards. Just received an email saying they are taking away all my free bets and cash credits. I’m up about £1000 with them over the last few years. My Bets are normally just £5. How can they be allowed to do this. So annoying.
Think your lucky they haven't closed your account. Lol
Bookmakers try to limit the number of closures they make so they can say to the media "we rarely close accounts". It's also because it's the best and cheapest way for their traders to glean information that they can't readily source.
An example of this occurred when I went to watch Kent a good few years ago with my eldest son (who has actually had all his accounts closed long time ago and now trades exclusively on Betfair but, even then, has had to find ways of avoiding paying their punitive Premium Charge) at Canterbury - he noticed how the match strip was on the very edge of the square meaning that it was going to be a lot easier to his 6s in the game. So he tried to get on backing over 8.5 total maximums in the match. He couldn't get on but I could (because I am far more of a habitual, recreational less than successful punter and had not had my account closed or restricted). I couldn't get on what my son wanted to have on it because it was a relatively niche market and any trader worth their salt would smell a rat. Within minutes of me getting on the market had moved to 10.5. The bookies didn't have a representative at the ground that early (it's usually someone who will provide a live feed to any number of them) which is what gave us that edge. And the bet won.
It would be no different if you had inside information on how certain horses are performing. Prior to the advent of Betfair, bookies used to have a massive advantage over punters because they actively courted stable insiders be it stable lads or even more high profile ones such as the cosy relationship that Mike Dillon, PR man for Ladbrokes, used to enjoy with the Irish top owners and trainers. Now, when you see a horse drift in an ante post market on Betfair from 5 to 50 you know that there is a 99% chance that it isn't going to run.
Any situation where a punter has better information than a bookmakers' trader leaves that punter ripe to be restricted or, ultimately, closed. But to take the latter action doesn't look good on their stats unless it is because they are taking "duty of care" action in the case of those who are losing more than they can afford to. And you can bet your bottom dollar that those specific stats will be readily available because they have to be provided for the authorities and they also want to be seen to be responsible bookmakers.
7 places on offer for the Scottish GN tomorrow. Currently GS, forecast should ensure a decent surface.
5 on my shortlist:
Win My Wings 10/1
did the business for me in the Eider. She's up 8lbs for that but has a very useful amateur (R James, who won the 2020 Kim Muir on Milan Native) taking off 7lbs
nice pedigree with Wild Risk in the right place and related to Righthand Man - 1984 Welsh GN winner under a big weight and 2nd in the Scottish GN.
Cool Mix 12/1
staying on 5th (8L) in this last year - moderate season (but not disgraced at 22~25f) now sees him off 6lb lower mark and his useful claimer takes off 7lbs (so just 9.11 to carry)
from the family of the late and much-lamented stayer, Synchronised
yard (Iain Jardine) 100% RTF in last fortnight
Jersey Bean 20/1
very genuine 9 yo who stayed on strongly under 11.12 to win over 28f on GS at Haydock last time out (furthest trip attempted). Up 5lbs for that but pedigree screams out for 4 miles - again Wild Risk in the right place and related to stayer Cogry (runner up in this by a neck in 2017) and tough mare Marello
Innisfree Lad 20/1
placed in the Eider (mark set to go a lot closer to Win My Wings this time) and made for 4 miles (staying on close 3rd in December's Borders National over extended 4m) - Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on the damside floats my boat. Brian Hughes on board.
One More Fleurie 33/1
this one is highly speculative as he's been in poor form this season (season's bow on unsuitable ground and finding the Hennessy and Ultima tests too hot to handle) but won over the course this time last year on ground to suit. Unbeaten in 3 chases at 3m on Good.
Yard (Ian Williams) in great form - 4 winners in last 14 days.
good staying notes in his pedigree - Wild Risk on the damside and related to 1974 big-weight Irish GN winner Colebridge
Sorry the longer priced picks didn't cut the mustard folks. But hope you were on Win My Wings. Incredibly comfortable win. Loved the good ground, as she did in the Eider. Top mare.
Nasty incident for Jersey Bean who unseated at the 2nd - may have injured himself very badly. Fingers crossed. EDIT - very sadly, his injury proved fatal
Comments
All on Touchy Feely in 5.05.
Touchy Feely was the winner on merit and that was a much more promising run from a Henderson inmate. Hopefully we'll see a couple more of them tomorrow.
For what it's worth (zero, of course) I completely agree.
As we've seen with every other sport that looks only to suckle on TV's tit (forgive the simile), the supposed benefits for the event itself will ultimately prove self-defeating but the consequences for the sport will be further-reaching and damaging.
As always, the big boys will thrive, the rest can (apparently) go to hell.
There should be a clarion call to go back to three days rather than extend to five.
Where I would disagree, though, is with the number of horses that did have a chance of running a race What the reduction in numbers has done is reduced what a lot of punters do enjoy is finding those double figure placed or even winner of the race. There have been any number of them over the years (last 10 years SPs with prices of first 4 and number of runners in brackets - not a handicap but with large field sizes the norm is now for some bookmakers to offer 4 plus places for even non handicaps):
2021 - 7/2, 11/4, 3/1, 16/1 (12)
2020 - 12/1, 11/2, 33/1, 12/1 (14)
2019 - 14/1, 9/2, 16/1, 125/1 (17)
2018 - 9/2, 8/1, 11/2, 25/1 (16)
2017 - 16/1, 50/1, 33/1, 12/1 (18)
2016 - 8/1, 7/1, 9/1, 5/1 (20)
2015 - 8/1, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1 (17)
2014 - 8/1, 7/2, 9/1, 100/1 (15)
2013 - 16/1, 66/1, 16/1, 6/1 (20)
2012 - 13/2, 14/1, 33/1, 33/1 (20)
You could probably have got 10/1 plus for 7 of the last 10 winners and 22 of the 40 horses in the first four returned double figure SPs. The races have been littered with potential young improvers as evidenced by Tiger Roll who won it in 2017 at 16/1 and was probably rated two stones lighter than its highest rating.
Venetia in red hot form, even though he's 3lbs out of the handicap tomorrow with OR133, that's 9lbs lower than when staying on 6th (7L) in this year last year (now has a 9lb advantage with the winner Time To Get Up) on ground that will likely be similar. Carried 11.00 then but, with Hugh Nugent taking 3lbs off, has just 9.11 on his back tomorrow.
Expecting first-time blinkers to sharpen him up nicely and to produce a return to his form when 4th in the December's Welsh GN off OR141.
Pairing him with MOMELLA at 14/1 e/w, a mare unexposed beyond 3m but victorious on testing at 3 miles and typically staying on at that trip, including when a creditable 2nd to Snow Leopardess at levels in Feb.
From the family of GN near-misser Magic of Light, also has the pedigree characteristics I look for at marathon trips: Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and a damsire that produced a G1 flat winner at 10f.
Having a rare handicap outing, carrying just 10.01 with regular partner Sean Bowen in the plate.
Harry Fry's runners are 80% running to form over the last 14 days.
With 6+ places up for grabs, at the price I'm going to take a chance that the ground will ride decent enough for GWENCILY BERBAS (33/1) and add him to my team for the Midlands National at 3.35pm.
Ran creditably when 5th (13L) in Feb's 32f Eider Chase on GS, the form of which was given a boost by both 1st and 2nd in Tuesday's Ultima (via Eclair Surf). Indeed he's shown his best form in all 4 of his chases to date at 25f+ (2 wins and 1 near-miss plus the Eider).
He'll be 5lbs out of the handicap but carry the minimum 10.00 with Tom Scu on board, who steered him to win at 25/1 in a big field handicap at Exeter in Dec over 30f, also on GS (Exeter's undulations make it a stiff 30f).
David Pipe had 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday, including a 25/1 shot.
Good luck.
2 runs, 2 wins this season, well rested since last. Same OR159 as when close 3rd under topweight in the last season's Welsh GN.
Excluding the GN, he's notched 5 wins and 5 places in 11 chases at 27.5f+ (the only miss coming on Good ground)
Going for multiple frame-makers with a 4-strong team.
Momella stayed on stoutly for 5th.
Achille passed the line 2nd but sadly without Hugh Nugent (bizarrely unseated on the flat setting out on the last circuit, going well in 2nd when his stirrup leather broke).
On to Ayr.
An example of this occurred when I went to watch Kent a good few years ago with my eldest son (who has actually had all his accounts closed long time ago and now trades exclusively on Betfair but, even then, has had to find ways of avoiding paying their punitive Premium Charge) at Canterbury - he noticed how the match strip was on the very edge of the square meaning that it was going to be a lot easier to his 6s in the game. So he tried to get on backing over 8.5 total maximums in the match. He couldn't get on but I could (because I am far more of a habitual, recreational less than successful punter and had not had my account closed or restricted). I couldn't get on what my son wanted to have on it because it was a relatively niche market and any trader worth their salt would smell a rat. Within minutes of me getting on the market had moved to 10.5. The bookies didn't have a representative at the ground that early (it's usually someone who will provide a live feed to any number of them) which is what gave us that edge. And the bet won.
It would be no different if you had inside information on how certain horses are performing. Prior to the advent of Betfair, bookies used to have a massive advantage over punters because they actively courted stable insiders be it stable lads or even more high profile ones such as the cosy relationship that Mike Dillon, PR man for Ladbrokes, used to enjoy with the Irish top owners and trainers. Now, when you see a horse drift in an ante post market on Betfair from 5 to 50 you know that there is a 99% chance that it isn't going to run.
Any situation where a punter has better information than a bookmakers' trader leaves that punter ripe to be restricted or, ultimately, closed. But to take the latter action doesn't look good on their stats unless it is because they are taking "duty of care" action in the case of those who are losing more than they can afford to. And you can bet your bottom dollar that those specific stats will be readily available because they have to be provided for the authorities and they also want to be seen to be responsible bookmakers.
5 on my shortlist:
Win My Wings 10/1
- did the business for me in the Eider. She's up 8lbs for that but has a very useful amateur (R James, who won the 2020 Kim Muir on Milan Native) taking off 7lbs
- nice pedigree with Wild Risk in the right place and related to Righthand Man - 1984 Welsh GN winner under a big weight and 2nd in the Scottish GN.
Cool Mix 12/1- staying on 5th (8L) in this last year - moderate season (but not disgraced at 22~25f) now sees him off 6lb lower mark and his useful claimer takes off 7lbs (so just 9.11 to carry)
- from the family of the late and much-lamented stayer, Synchronised
- yard (Iain Jardine) 100% RTF in last fortnight
Jersey Bean 20/1- very genuine 9 yo who stayed on strongly under 11.12 to win over 28f on GS at Haydock last time out (furthest trip attempted). Up 5lbs for that but pedigree screams out for 4 miles - again Wild Risk in the right place and related to stayer Cogry (runner up in this by a neck in 2017) and tough mare Marello
Innisfree Lad 20/1- placed in the Eider (mark set to go a lot closer to Win My Wings this time) and made for 4 miles (staying on close 3rd in December's Borders National over extended 4m) - Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on the damside floats my boat. Brian Hughes on board.
One More Fleurie 33/1- this one is highly speculative as he's been in poor form this season (season's bow on unsuitable ground and finding the Hennessy and Ultima tests too hot to handle) but won over the course this time last year on ground to suit. Unbeaten in 3 chases at 3m on Good.
- Yard (Ian Williams) in great form - 4 winners in last 14 days.
- good staying notes in his pedigree - Wild Risk on the damside and related to 1974 big-weight Irish GN winner Colebridge
EnjoyBut hope you were on Win My Wings. Incredibly comfortable win. Loved the good ground, as she did in the Eider.
Top mare.
Nasty incident for Jersey Bean who unseated at the 2nd - may have injured himself very badly. Fingers crossed.
EDIT - very sadly, his injury proved fatal