Of course, neither CH or Honeysuckle are guaranteed to get there on the day. The De Bromhead stable clearly left a lot to be worked on with the latter but she still performed massively under par in the Hatton's Grace anyway. She will be a 9 year old come Cheltenham and have to give three years to the new pretender as well as 8lbs on official ratings (albeit with 7lbs notionally offset by the mares allowance).
If you are an ante post backer, though, then EW at 8/1 and she places then you've a 30% profit for your money - better than bank interest rates. Of course, if CH doesn't turn up on the day, literally or otherwise, then you have a return the equivalent of 4.8/1 should Honeysuckle return to her best and beat the rest of the field.
Cynically, the one thing that always concerns me is the relationship that bookmakers do enjoy with some stables. And Bet365 probably have better than most in this respect. But, perhaps, they just want to fill their book and are probably only, in reality, offering two places so the overall maths still work for them at 8/1 especially with an improving State Man possibly meaning that there is just the one place to play for. There is also, however, the possibility that connections will revert to the Mares Hurdle and opt to take the potentially softer option. Is another Cheltenham win, though, better than a place in one of the flagship races of the Festival?
You pays your money and makes your choice as they say. And that goes for punter and owner alike.
Welsh National tomorrow, going currently GS but rain forecast for the day, heavy around racetime, will make this a typically gruelling test. Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured. My short-list for winner: ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen,with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod. Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course. TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago. I'll stick with my 3 however.
With a typically large field that will go like the clappers, the 3m Paddy Power Hdcp Chase at 3pm at Leopardstown today is one to watch with the GN in mind - aside from both Minella Times and Noble Yeats running in it prior to April victories, it’s been a stepping stone for several GN frame-makers (especially JP McManus's) since the 2012-13 course changes at Liverpool. Once again, several of today's runners will likely be entered for the big one this year. ENJOY D’ALLEN (close 3rd last Dec) is still of interest for Aintree despite his early departure in April. Like him, A WAVE OF THE SEA (33/1 today) carries JP's colours and has notched repeated respectable runs in Kerry and Munster Nationals but is yet to race beyond 3 miles. Related to GN runner-up Cause of Causes, he could be screaming out for a trip. I’ve got a particular eye on Willie Mullins’ 8 year old EGALITY MANS (also 33/1). No idea if Aintree is in mind - trainer has spoken of the Irish GN but perhaps that reflects his current 135 mark. Too low for Aintree but his profile would be of consderable note if he can muster a 10lb+ OR hike, winning over his furthest trip attempted to date (25.5f) and sharing Sire (Network) and Damsire (Video Rock) with Saint Are and Delta Work. First time cheekpieces and just 10.07 to carry with a good claimer could assist the necessary win to make him a live Aintree candidate. Should be a belter, as usual.
Welsh National tomorrow, going currently GS but rain forecast for the day, heavy around racetime, will make this a typically gruelling test. Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured. My short-list for winner: ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen,with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod. Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course. TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago. I'll stick with my 3 however.
Have to confess, with 6 places up for grabs, I couldn't pass on the other 2 e/w shouts and now have a fairly hefty interest: ASK ME EARLY (win at 8/1, now vying for fav at 5s) CYCLOP (e/w 66/1, now top price 33s) WAYFINDER (e/w 25/1) TRUCKERS LODGE (e/w 20/1, now 14s) THE TWO AMIGOS (e/w 25/1, now 20s)
Cheers @Addick Addict Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps. All the best to you for 2023
Cheers @Addick Addict Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps. All the best to you for 2023
Usually go kempton every 27th but gave it a miss this year due to going back to work tomorrow, managed to get 5 2nds 🤬🤬🤬, do fancy the a plus tard/ flooring porter double tomorrow
Oh dear! Willie Mullins is training for Giggingstown again. Seems that the O'Leary's have to back down. First runner is Shanbally Kid in the 12.20 Limerick. Let's hope it gets turned over - by one of Mullins' other runners preferably!
Oh dear! Willie Mullins is training for Giggingstown again. Seems that the O'Leary's have to back down. First runner is Shanbally Kid in the 12.20 Limerick. Let's hope it gets turned over - by one of Mullins' other runners preferably!
So he has won all 9 of his last 12 completed rides. He's been helped by the terrific form of the Sandy Thompson stable (7 of last 10 runners have won) and Mania has a massive level stakes profit over that period given that one of those winners, Large Action (not that Large Action obviously!), won at 25/1 with him on board.
He has one final ride today - Better Be Definite (16/1 available) in the 3.15 Musselburgh (they are running 30 minutes late because of earlier issues but might catch up a bit) for joint trainers Harriet Graham and Gary Rutherford
Tom Scudamore retires from riding immediately .. all the best to him
A good, honest jockey. Staying as number one jockey to David Pipe for virtually his whole career, he never really had a consistently good book of rides to show him at his best.
Soft target for finishing second in a bumper. Wonder if the BHA would do the same to Ryan Moore if he were to commit the same offence on a Derby winner for Coolmore given that they would face the prospect of a legal challenge if only for the reason of the financial implications in terms of not just prize money but stud value too.
The BHA are making a complete and unnecessary mess of the whip situation. Do the BHA really think that the "general public" will care that a whip is being used one or two times less than before? I was at Haydock on Saturday and witnessed a brilliant finish to the second last race, for which Lorcan Williams, on the winner, has now received an 18 day ban, meaning that he will miss Cheltenham. The jockey on the second horse has received an 8 day ban. My abiding memory from the race was the two jockeys congratulating each other, after the line, for a great race and battle to the line. Cheltenham is going to be carnage and I wonder how many horses will end up being disqualified for overuse of the whip.
Sean Quinlan riding the 2/9 favourite, Telhimlisten, in the two runner Sedgefield 1.40, appears to have somehow got unbalanced, after the last and on the run in, to the extent that he has had to dive off the horse. Telhimlisten was matched by the fast finger merchants at 1.01 to £14K and the eventual winner was matched all the way up to 1,000!
Sean Quinlan riding the 2/9 favourite, Telhimlisten, in the two runner Sedgefield 1.40, appears to have somehow got unbalanced, after the last and on the run in, to the extent that he has had to dive off the horse. Telhimlisten was matched by the fast finger merchants at 1.01 to £14K and the eventual winner was matched all the way up to 1,000!
Comments
If you are an ante post backer, though, then EW at 8/1 and she places then you've a 30% profit for your money - better than bank interest rates. Of course, if CH doesn't turn up on the day, literally or otherwise, then you have a return the equivalent of 4.8/1 should Honeysuckle return to her best and beat the rest of the field.
Cynically, the one thing that always concerns me is the relationship that bookmakers do enjoy with some stables. And Bet365 probably have better than most in this respect. But, perhaps, they just want to fill their book and are probably only, in reality, offering two places so the overall maths still work for them at 8/1 especially with an improving State Man possibly meaning that there is just the one place to play for. There is also, however, the possibility that connections will revert to the Mares Hurdle and opt to take the potentially softer option. Is another Cheltenham win, though, better than a place in one of the flagship races of the Festival?
You pays your money and makes your choice as they say. And that goes for punter and owner alike.
Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured.
My short-list for winner:
ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen, with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod.
Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course.
TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago.
I'll stick with my 3 however.
ENJOY D’ALLEN (close 3rd last Dec) is still of interest for Aintree despite his early departure in April.
Like him, A WAVE OF THE SEA (33/1 today) carries JP's colours and has notched repeated respectable runs in Kerry and Munster Nationals but is yet to race beyond 3 miles. Related to GN runner-up Cause of Causes, he could be screaming out for a trip.
I’ve got a particular eye on Willie Mullins’ 8 year old EGALITY MANS (also 33/1). No idea if Aintree is in mind - trainer has spoken of the Irish GN but perhaps that reflects his current 135 mark. Too low for Aintree but his profile would be of consderable note if he can muster a 10lb+ OR hike, winning over his furthest trip attempted to date (25.5f) and sharing Sire (Network) and Damsire (Video Rock) with Saint Are and Delta Work. First time cheekpieces and just 10.07 to carry with a good claimer could assist the necessary win to make him a live Aintree candidate.
Should be a belter, as usual.
Have to confess, with 6 places up for grabs, I couldn't pass on the other 2 e/w shouts and now have a fairly hefty interest:
ASK ME EARLY (win at 8/1, now vying for fav at 5s)
CYCLOP (e/w 66/1, now top price 33s)
WAYFINDER (e/w 25/1)
TRUCKERS LODGE (e/w 20/1, now 14s)
THE TWO AMIGOS (e/w 25/1, now 20s)
All come back home safe and sound please.
First win for THE TWO AMIGOS for 3 years 11 months. Great win and fantastic for connections.
Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps.
All the best to you for 2023
1-1-1-F-1-1-P-1-1-P-1-1
So he has won all 9 of his last 12 completed rides. He's been helped by the terrific form of the Sandy Thompson stable (7 of last 10 runners have won) and Mania has a massive level stakes profit over that period given that one of those winners, Large Action (not that Large Action obviously!), won at 25/1 with him on board.
He has one final ride today - Better Be Definite (16/1 available) in the 3.15 Musselburgh (they are running 30 minutes late because of earlier issues but might catch up a bit) for joint trainers Harriet Graham and Gary Rutherford
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/64340270
First one on now but another dozen or so going back to the early 60s to come.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/295512265483?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=UwoziUJ-RVK&sssrc=2349624&ssuid=-jKBJkFaQ_u&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=MORE
Jump jockey Charlotte Jones becomes first rider disqualified for breaking whip rules (msn.com)
The BHA are making a complete and unnecessary mess of the whip situation.
Do the BHA really think that the "general public" will care that a whip is being used one or two times less than before?
I was at Haydock on Saturday and witnessed a brilliant finish to the second last race, for which Lorcan Williams, on the winner, has now received an 18 day ban, meaning that he will miss Cheltenham. The jockey on the second horse has received an 8 day ban. My abiding memory from the race was the two jockeys congratulating each other, after the line, for a great race and battle to the line.
Cheltenham is going to be carnage and I wonder how many horses will end up being disqualified for overuse of the whip.