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Sport of Kings discussion thread

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  • edited April 2023
    Sometimes punting really can bite you in the bum and laugh at the same time.

    In the 1.40 at Perth I was on the 2/1 favourite, trained by Stuart Crawford, Bleu D'enfer, who led every yard of the race 'til it hit the line at which point a horse called Nowinittowinit, who had come from the clouds, won the race by a short head.

    Now we've all been there. But when the winning horse returns an SP of 80/1 and Betfair SP of 274 and therefore a perceived chance of 0.36% of winning, then you know your luck is out. When you then realise that the winner is also trained by Stuart Crawford then, perhaps, it's time to declare before further damage arises! Crawford also had the 9/1 4th. 

    Only joking - onwards and upwards - but it really is very, very galling when that happens. 
  • edited April 2023
    I’ve been betting tricast last couple of weeks only 60p but I’ve won about 5 times and in profit by about £140. 
    I’ve been close 2 out of the 3 places about 8 times. 
    What’s people’s favourite bet that they win with. 
    I normally go for Trixie 
    Win single or each-way filth on horses (mainly each-way single or sometimes an each-way double).  

    When I have time I follow a selection/staking system - maybe two or three options in a given week.

    Selection:

    - must be favourite but not odds-on
    - level weights races only, not handicaps
    - must have run, but not won, in the current season
    - must be tipped up by the majority of newspaper tipsters
    - professional jockey - no claimers

    Stakes:

    10 points win every race

    variation:

    10 points win race one in a sequence

    if loses stake on race two to win losing stake in race one plus 10 points

    if win back to first stage

    if loses stake on race three to win losing stakes on races one and two plus 10 points.


    The above selection criteria has (or used to have, I don't follow it closely enough now) a 70+% strike rate.

    The first option on the staking (flat 10 points win) avoids the escalating stakes on a losing run and if you are backing Evens or better with a 70% strike rate then flat stakes turns a healthy profit with relatively low risk.


  • I’ve been betting tricast last couple of weeks only 60p but I’ve won about 5 times and in profit by about £140. 
    I’ve been close 2 out of the 3 places about 8 times. 
    What’s people’s favourite bet that they win with. 
    I normally go for Trixie 
    7 selections together - singles, fourfolds, sixfolds and the EW Acca. Heaviest staking on the singles. Selections and races roughly designed for one winner to get at least half of the total stake back, two winners and everything is returned, possibly even a minor profit. Three winners equals a definite profit, four or more and a right result. That's the idea in theory anyway! 
  • As the Cup Final has now been brought forward to 3.00pm, the Derby will now be run at 1.30pm
  • Derby is usually the 4th/5th race on the card so when is the first race?
  • I tend to stick to singles, although recent luck with Cheltenham suggests i should do lucky 15, tbf i haven't really bet on horses until recently as i've had a good run and left it in and just been backing singles/ eachways. 
  • edited April 2023
    iaitch said:
    Derby is usually the 4th/5th race on the card so when is the first race?
    First race 12:50, Derby second race at 13:30. Ridiculous.
  • As the Cup Final has now been brought forward to 3.00pm, the Derby will now be run at 1.30pm
    Oh wow, i go to the derby and will be going. It shouldn't make a huge difference as i get there like 11/12 early (in the stools). Basically a day off drinking for me from getting the train there, hopefully the weather is good :smile:
  • Yesterday at Fontwell, didn't get much of a run if you were either of these two.

    https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-popout/VOD/1349513?showResult=yes
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  • Oh wow, i go to the derby and will be going. It shouldn't make a huge difference as i get there like 11/12 early (in the stools). Basically a day off drinking for me from getting the train there, hopefully the weather is good :smile:
    Train strike too, which is how we all get there so no chance of going this year! Will stick to a local pub and have a few drinks, not quite the same. 
  • Off to the Derby early tomorrow on our regular coach trip from the local. Hoping the traffic is not going to be too painful.

    Send me some tips please.. so I sound like I know what I’m talking about. Thank you! 
  • Yep off to the derby myself tomorrow, leaving at the Morgan in Abbey Wood at 10.30 

    These are my selections:

    12.50 kolsai
    1.30 auguste Rodin 
             White birch 
    2.10 potapova 
    2.45 zuffalo 
    3.20 silkie wilkie 
             Lihou 
    3.55 fox journey 
    4.30 max mayhem 
    5.05 Apollo one 
             Strike red 
  • 10:30 seems late to me, can see the M25 being a nightmare. I’m playing golf at 12 in Hampshire, so need to take the next turn off to Epsom and we are leaving at 9.
  • @ValleyGary my thoughts exactly but I’m a number on someone else’s arranged bus good thing is it’s got a khazi and we can booze on the coach 
  • @ValleyGary my thoughts exactly but I’m a number on someone else’s arranged bus good thing is it’s got a khazi and we can booze on the coach 
    Happy days. The essentials are there.
  • Happy days. The essentials are there.
    Play well 
  • Yes our coach is leaving the Herbert at 8.15, ie now but we go that time every year as our organiser likes to plot up early. So I thought he’d be going even earlier. 

    But between typing that last night and this morning I’m now not going as feeling too rough. Had hoped to shake whatever it is off overnight. Gutted as always a great day out. 

    Ian still gone though. I’ll find out if any traffic problems getting in. 






  • I've done Dubai Mile ew in the Derby. Good luck to all.
  • Passenger and dubai mile for me
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  • Any interest in Ascot today and the next few days?
  • I am off on Friday to watch it in a pub with friends, however i have gone in today. Depends how i do whether i save for friday or keep it spinning: 

    Lucky 15 EW:
    3.05 Army Ethos
    3.40 Manaccan
    4.20 Royal Scotsman
    5      Ahorsewithnoname

    Treble win only:
    2.30 Inspiral , 4.20Chaldean, 6.10 Vauban 

    Singles: 
    Marshman 3.40 EW
    Cash 2.30 EW
    Inspiral 2.30 Win 
    Indestructible 4.20 EW
  • I am off on Friday to watch it in a pub with friends, however i have gone in today. Depends how i do whether i save for friday or keep it spinning: 

    Lucky 15 EW:
    3.05 Army Ethos
    3.40 Manaccan
    4.20 Royal Scotsman
    5      Ahorsewithnoname

    Treble win only:
    2.30 Inspiral , 4.20Chaldean, 6.10 Vauban 

    Singles: 
    Marshman 3.40 EW
    Cash 2.30 EW
    Inspiral 2.30 Win 
    Indestructible 4.20 EW

    Manaccan now a non-runner.

  • Manaccan now a non-runner.
    Thanks thats annoying, hopefully i can put another lucky 15 on 
  • Thanks thats annoying, hopefully i can put another lucky 15 on 
    would lose £3 if i cash out and replace :( shite
  • Who had Valiant Force 150/1? 
  • iaitch said:
    Who had Valiant Force 150/1? 

    Nah but had it at 500 on Betfair. I wish!!!
  • That was a turn up, must be plenty of confused Americans about. 

  • Nah but had it at 500 on Betfair. I wish!!!
    So do I.
  • Unbelievable that, was 200/1 on paddy power and I thought nahhhh, done valiant king in the next 
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