Becher Chase today at 2.05pm. Favourite GESSKILLE 11/2 (similar pedigree to Saint Are and Delta Work) is hard to oppose. Up 4lbs for just being just held on the nod in the Grand Sefton a month ago (also Good to Soft). There is some value with PERCUSSION 14/1 who's weighted to finish much closer to him on his 8L 3rd in that race, staying on well at the line (jumped beautifully). Also a nice looking, Aintree-suited pedigree. Enjoy.
Becher Chase today at 2.05pm. Favourite GESSKILLE 11/2 (similar pedigree to Saint Are and Delta Work) is hard to oppose. Up 4lbs for just being just held on the nod in the Grand Sefton a month ago (also Good to Soft). There is some value with PERCUSSION 14/1 who's weighted to finish much closer to him on his 8L 3rd in that race, staying on well at the line (jumped beautifully). Also a nice looking, Aintree-suited pedigree. Enjoy.
I've had a very small punt on Captain Kangaroo cos it's trained by Gunboat Willie M and I like the name .. 'smokin cigarettes and watching Captain Kangaroo, don't tell me, I've nothing to do'
Facile Vega, last year's winner of the Cheltenham and Punchestown bumpers, just made his hurdles debut at Fairyhouse, winning hard held hy about a dozen kengths. Looks a real machine, just like his mum.
Of course, neither CH or Honeysuckle are guaranteed to get there on the day. The De Bromhead stable clearly left a lot to be worked on with the latter but she still performed massively under par in the Hatton's Grace anyway. She will be a 9 year old come Cheltenham and have to give three years to the new pretender as well as 8lbs on official ratings (albeit with 7lbs notionally offset by the mares allowance).
If you are an ante post backer, though, then EW at 8/1 and she places then you've a 30% profit for your money - better than bank interest rates. Of course, if CH doesn't turn up on the day, literally or otherwise, then you have a return the equivalent of 4.8/1 should Honeysuckle return to her best and beat the rest of the field.
Cynically, the one thing that always concerns me is the relationship that bookmakers do enjoy with some stables. And Bet365 probably have better than most in this respect. But, perhaps, they just want to fill their book and are probably only, in reality, offering two places so the overall maths still work for them at 8/1 especially with an improving State Man possibly meaning that there is just the one place to play for. There is also, however, the possibility that connections will revert to the Mares Hurdle and opt to take the potentially softer option. Is another Cheltenham win, though, better than a place in one of the flagship races of the Festival?
You pays your money and makes your choice as they say. And that goes for punter and owner alike.
Welsh National tomorrow, going currently GS but rain forecast for the day, heavy around racetime, will make this a typically gruelling test. Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured. My short-list for winner: ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen,with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod. Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course. TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago. I'll stick with my 3 however.
With a typically large field that will go like the clappers, the 3m Paddy Power Hdcp Chase at 3pm at Leopardstown today is one to watch with the GN in mind - aside from both Minella Times and Noble Yeats running in it prior to April victories, it’s been a stepping stone for several GN frame-makers (especially JP McManus's) since the 2012-13 course changes at Liverpool. Once again, several of today's runners will likely be entered for the big one this year. ENJOY D’ALLEN (close 3rd last Dec) is still of interest for Aintree despite his early departure in April. Like him, A WAVE OF THE SEA (33/1 today) carries JP's colours and has notched repeated respectable runs in Kerry and Munster Nationals but is yet to race beyond 3 miles. Related to GN runner-up Cause of Causes, he could be screaming out for a trip. I’ve got a particular eye on Willie Mullins’ 8 year old EGALITY MANS (also 33/1). No idea if Aintree is in mind - trainer has spoken of the Irish GN but perhaps that reflects his current 135 mark. Too low for Aintree but his profile would be of consderable note if he can muster a 10lb+ OR hike, winning over his furthest trip attempted to date (25.5f) and sharing Sire (Network) and Damsire (Video Rock) with Saint Are and Delta Work. First time cheekpieces and just 10.07 to carry with a good claimer could assist the necessary win to make him a live Aintree candidate. Should be a belter, as usual.
Welsh National tomorrow, going currently GS but rain forecast for the day, heavy around racetime, will make this a typically gruelling test. Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured. My short-list for winner: ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen,with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod. Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course. TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago. I'll stick with my 3 however.
Have to confess, with 6 places up for grabs, I couldn't pass on the other 2 e/w shouts and now have a fairly hefty interest: ASK ME EARLY (win at 8/1, now vying for fav at 5s) CYCLOP (e/w 66/1, now top price 33s) WAYFINDER (e/w 25/1) TRUCKERS LODGE (e/w 20/1, now 14s) THE TWO AMIGOS (e/w 25/1, now 20s)
Cheers @Addick Addict Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps. All the best to you for 2023
Cheers @Addick Addict Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps. All the best to you for 2023
Usually go kempton every 27th but gave it a miss this year due to going back to work tomorrow, managed to get 5 2nds 🤬🤬🤬, do fancy the a plus tard/ flooring porter double tomorrow
Oh dear! Willie Mullins is training for Giggingstown again. Seems that the O'Leary's have to back down. First runner is Shanbally Kid in the 12.20 Limerick. Let's hope it gets turned over - by one of Mullins' other runners preferably!
Oh dear! Willie Mullins is training for Giggingstown again. Seems that the O'Leary's have to back down. First runner is Shanbally Kid in the 12.20 Limerick. Let's hope it gets turned over - by one of Mullins' other runners preferably!
Comments
He jumped superbly.
Favourite GESSKILLE 11/2 (similar pedigree to Saint Are and Delta Work) is hard to oppose. Up 4lbs for just being just held on the nod in the Grand Sefton a month ago (also Good to Soft).
There is some value with PERCUSSION 14/1 who's weighted to finish much closer to him on his 8L 3rd in that race, staying on well at the line (jumped beautifully). Also a nice looking, Aintree-suited pedigree.
Enjoy.
Better dust off the old spreadsheet.
If you are an ante post backer, though, then EW at 8/1 and she places then you've a 30% profit for your money - better than bank interest rates. Of course, if CH doesn't turn up on the day, literally or otherwise, then you have a return the equivalent of 4.8/1 should Honeysuckle return to her best and beat the rest of the field.
Cynically, the one thing that always concerns me is the relationship that bookmakers do enjoy with some stables. And Bet365 probably have better than most in this respect. But, perhaps, they just want to fill their book and are probably only, in reality, offering two places so the overall maths still work for them at 8/1 especially with an improving State Man possibly meaning that there is just the one place to play for. There is also, however, the possibility that connections will revert to the Mares Hurdle and opt to take the potentially softer option. Is another Cheltenham win, though, better than a place in one of the flagship races of the Festival?
You pays your money and makes your choice as they say. And that goes for punter and owner alike.
Course form, a light weight and seasonal prior making of the frame are the customary pointers, with a reasonably local yard and youth usually (but not always) favoured.
My short-list for winner:
ASK ME EARLY (8/1) and PAT'S FANCY (10/1), each ridden by a Bowen, with the former (closely related to an Eider near-misser) for the in-form Harry Fry getting the nod.
Joining him as my 2 each-way value punts are old fella CYCLOP (66/1), who stays longer than the proverbial, and WAYFINDER (25/1), 4 wins from 6 over the course.
TRUCKERS LODGE (25/1), twice placed in the race, could be interesting at the price off 9lbs lower mark than when 3rd a year ago and with a 7lb claimer putting 10.13 on his back and, now that he's made the cut, THE TWO AMIGOS (33/1), while without a win for almost 4 years, should relish the test off 15lbs lower mark (plus 5lb claim to give him just 10.01) than when runner up 2 years ago.
I'll stick with my 3 however.
ENJOY D’ALLEN (close 3rd last Dec) is still of interest for Aintree despite his early departure in April.
Like him, A WAVE OF THE SEA (33/1 today) carries JP's colours and has notched repeated respectable runs in Kerry and Munster Nationals but is yet to race beyond 3 miles. Related to GN runner-up Cause of Causes, he could be screaming out for a trip.
I’ve got a particular eye on Willie Mullins’ 8 year old EGALITY MANS (also 33/1). No idea if Aintree is in mind - trainer has spoken of the Irish GN but perhaps that reflects his current 135 mark. Too low for Aintree but his profile would be of consderable note if he can muster a 10lb+ OR hike, winning over his furthest trip attempted to date (25.5f) and sharing Sire (Network) and Damsire (Video Rock) with Saint Are and Delta Work. First time cheekpieces and just 10.07 to carry with a good claimer could assist the necessary win to make him a live Aintree candidate.
Should be a belter, as usual.
Have to confess, with 6 places up for grabs, I couldn't pass on the other 2 e/w shouts and now have a fairly hefty interest:
ASK ME EARLY (win at 8/1, now vying for fav at 5s)
CYCLOP (e/w 66/1, now top price 33s)
WAYFINDER (e/w 25/1)
TRUCKERS LODGE (e/w 20/1, now 14s)
THE TWO AMIGOS (e/w 25/1, now 20s)
All come back home safe and sound please.
First win for THE TWO AMIGOS for 3 years 11 months. Great win and fantastic for connections.
Didn't look so clever when Ask Me Early downed tools at the start but at least you can afford a team in these big handicaps.
All the best to you for 2023