However I reluctantly admit that rather like ( the pre referendum ) Alex Salmond in Scotland they are on a roll at the moment . Their pitch is not about consistency and logic ,it is about emotion and playing on people's fears . Most of their policies are eccentric to say the least and do not bear serious analysis .
Mark Reckless's By election will be closely contested .The Medway towns have normally been somewhat of a bell weather for who is in government. Labour held the seat during the Blair years and won it as recently as 2005.
The problem UKIP's opponents have is that rather like the pre coalition Lib Dems , they are very unlikely to be tested by being in government next year. The Lib Dems 'brand' is now toxic because they stood on policies to the left of Labour in 2010 and then installed a right wing Tory government.
There are big dangers for Labour with UKIP also. The traditional Labour voter is being aggressively targeted by Farage. Michael Crick speculates here that UKIP might even win the Heywood and Middleton By Election which is held on the same day as Clacton and then there is the Police Commissioner By Election to replace the disgraced former Rotherham Councillor Shaun Wright.
Interesting article. It's clear that the Heywood and Middleton by election is going to be turned into a vote on what happened in Rochdale by UKIP. It's such an emotive issue that I wouldn't mind betting on a UKIP win.
It's not hard to see why UKIP (and the SNP) are "popular" at present.
We have a coalition government. Many of those who voted Lib Dem must be horrified that they have been "sleeping with the enemy".
The Tories have tried to use their coalition to "modernise" the party by hugging trees, pursing gay marriage etc - alienating much of the "blue rinse" set.
There has been a scism across the Tory diaspora of those who were broadly business supporting Tories who see the EU as one huge market opportunity and those who are rapped in the flag of Empire. The coalition with the Lib Dems has given a chance for a party to their right - UKIP to start peeling these people away.
In Scotland the toxification of the Lib Dems by joining the coalition with the wicked Tories has loosened around 10% of votes - in the past these would have gone mainly to Labour but the current Labour party is shambolic and ineffective in Scotland, and it's policy wonk UK leader looks and sound like he comes from another planet.
Add a couple of popularist politicians in Farage and Salmond who have the common touch and it makes for a much less certain outcome as they bite into traditional voting patterns.
It's not hard to see why UKIP (and the SNP) are "popular" at present.
We have a coalition government. Many of those who voted Lib Dem must be horrified that they have been "sleeping with the enemy".
The Tories have tried to use their coalition to "modernise" the party by hugging trees, pursing gay marriage etc - alienating much of the "blue rinse" set.
There has been a scism across the Tory diaspora of those who were broadly business supporting Tories who see the EU as one huge market opportunity and those who are rapped in the flag of Empire. The coalition with the Lib Dems has given a chance for a party to their right - UKIP to start peeling these people away.
In Scotland the toxification of the Lib Dems by joining the coalition with the wicked Tories has loosened around 10% of votes - in the past these would have gone mainly to Labour but the current Labour party is shambolic and ineffective in Scotland, and it's policy wonk UK leader looks and sound like he comes from another planet.
Add a couple of popularist politicians in Farage and Salmond who have the common touch and it makes for a much less certain outcome as they bite into traditional voting patterns.
Thing is we elect a party rather than a politician and think they shouldn't be able to jump ship midterm. Think they really only do it in their own interests anyway.
Exactly. You should not be allowed to just walk across the floor of the House. At least the Clacton MP stood down and forced a by election. If he gets voted in again as a UKIP that's fair enough but otherwise it extremely undemocratic to get voted in on a raft of policies then jettison those because the MP in question has changed his position. If he or she has a problem with his parties policies they should try and change them and be upfront with their constituents.
The ballot paper may name the candidates Party but it is the person that gets the votes in UK Parliament Elections.
After all the most famous of them Winston Churchill all crossed the twice from Conservative to Liberal and then back to Conservative.
There is no requirement on MPs to resign their seat but the convention now seems to be that you should re submit yourself to the electorate to regain a mandate. My guess though is part of some MPs calculations will be about whether they think they can regain the seat. Both these two Tories I am certain, feel they can.
I'm obviously aware of that Bing but experience tells me that the primary reason people vote for a candidate is because they are a representative of the party most closely aligned with their views. The majority of posters on my local rag's website for example have spent the last decade or more moaning about the performance of each of the local MP's yet I'd stake my mortgage they will promptly go out and vote them in again down here.
If people vote for the party rather than the candidate then they fundamentally misunderstand how our parliamentary democracy works. John Bercow, for example, is a very different Tory to, say, Fabricant (at least if Bercow wasn't standing as a Speaker, but his political views were and are very different to Tories to the right of the party). Likewise David Skinner and David Miliband (when David Miliband was an MP) were on opposite sides of the Labour Party spectrum.
The only elections in this country where you vote for a party rather than a candidate are the European Parliament elections, as MEPs are picked from party lists.
Thing is we elect a party rather than a politician and think they shouldn't be able to jump ship midterm. Think they really only do it in their own interests anyway.
Exactly. You should not be allowed to just walk across the floor of the House. At least the Clacton MP stood down and forced a by election. If he gets voted in again as a UKIP that's fair enough but otherwise it extremely undemocratic to get voted in on a raft of policies then jettison those because the MP in question has changed his position. If he or she has a problem with his parties policies they should try and change them and be upfront with their constituents.
The ballot paper may name the candidates Party but it is the person that gets the votes in UK Parliament Elections.
After all the most famous of them Winston Churchill all crossed the twice from Conservative to Liberal and then back to Conservative.
There is no requirement on MPs to resign their seat but the convention now seems to be that you should re submit yourself to the electorate to regain a mandate. My guess though is part of some MPs calculations will be about whether they think they can regain the seat. Both these two Tories I am certain, feel they can.
I'm obviously aware of that Bing but experience tells me that the primary reason people vote for a candidate is because they are a representative of the party most closely aligned with their views. The majority of posters on my local rag's website for example have spent the last decade or more moaning about the performance of each of the local MP's yet I'd stake my mortgage they will promptly go out and vote them in again down here.
This has always been a fascinating debate ,is it the MP or the Party people vote for? Political scientists always claimed an incumbency factor would not be worth more than 2,000 votes.
Even exceptional local constituency MP's get beaten in the end . In the lowest point of the Labour Party in 1983 Ken Weetch remarkably held Ipswich against the Tories. Four years later following boundary changes he couldn't hold on . A more local example would be Woolwich's SDP MP John Cartwright who beat Labour in 1983 and 1987 before losing in 1992.
If people vote for the party rather than the candidate then they fundamentally misunderstand how our parliamentary democracy works. John Bercow, for example, is a very different Tory to, say, Fabricant (at least if Bercow wasn't standing as a Speaker, but his political views were and are very different to Tories to the right of the party). Likewise David Skinner and David Miliband (when David Miliband was an MP) were on opposite sides of the Labour Party spectrum.
The only elections in this country where you vote for a party rather than a candidate are the European Parliament elections, as MEPs are picked from party lists.
I don't think that's true. I think there is a party list vote for the GLA, which is used to elect the top-up members, and believe the same applies for the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales. Scottish local authorities are also elected by some form of PR, I think - although you may regard Scotland as another country, notwithstanding the referendum result...
He has a habit of doing this and seems to revel in damaging Cameron. Weird and rather childish.
It might explain why Cameron has been unwilling / unable to take the high ground. It is all very complex at different levels with the first ever four party election in eight months time. I trust the UK is not compromised as a result of this realignment of politics...interesting times!
The Tories couldn`t win the last election outright after 13 years of Labour and the most detested prime minister possible in Gordon Brown. What on earth makes them think they will win it outright this time? Not a chance in hell of an outright win!
The difficulty is that the main political parties have failed us all too many times. UKIP is set to benefit from that especially as the Tories continue to rip themselves apart over Europe. I agree that the Milliband factor is putting people off leaving the path clear for more charismatic figures like Farage. But there are also many people who would never vote for UKIP under any circumstances so where do these voters go? I have now spent my entire voting life basically wasting my vote. The right to vote was hard won, but is our current system what people fought for? At every level in my life where I continue to fight for various causes nonsultation has taken over. Basically our rulers are saying '' If you are lucky, we will ask you your views and then we will completely ignore you.' Throw in corruption and any realignments will also fail for exactly the same reasons as currently exist. I don't find the future interesting, merely utterly depressing.
The difficulty is that the main political parties have failed us all too many times. UKIP is set to benefit from that especially as the Tories continue to rip themselves apart over Europe. I agree that the Milliband factor is putting people off leaving the path clear for more charismatic figures like Farage. But there are also many people who would never vote for UKIP under any circumstances so where do these voters go? I have now spent my entire voting life basically wasting my vote. The right to vote was hard won, but is our current system what people fought for? At every level in my life where I continue to fight for various causes nonsultation has taken over. Basically our rulers are saying '' If you are lucky, we will ask you your views and then we will completely ignore you.' Throw in corruption and any realignments will also fail for exactly the same reasons as currently exist. I don't find the future interesting, merely utterly depressing.
I'm one of those people I will never vote for UKIP however, having always voted conservatives in the past I've lost all faith in them I am finding myself getting increasingly annoyed with them, but I can't stand Daffy Duck aka ed milliband. I know that labour promise to reinstate lost funding for frontline services and protect a lot of societies poorest that have been damaged badly by government cuts etc all sounds good but at what cost? A bigger deficit? I won't vote lib dem as its a wasted vote so what do I do? Abstain? Then it's a wasted right to vote.
It is ironic that the Conservatives say vote UKIP you get Labour, when previously you voted Liberal Democrat and got Conservative. Personally I think UKIP are going to ride the 'Boris' effect, when their voters won't all realise what they're voting for but they vote based on impetus and image. I realise for myself in recent times that sadly and shockingly I am no longer voting for anybody, but I vote against people. When a lot of politicians shout about having this or that much support or backing they may do well to pause and think that their voters may actually be anti someone/thing else and not particularly in favour of them.
The political landscape is changing and the traditional parties have been slow to react. There was some evidence in the Scottish referendum that more people were inspired to vote/campaign on specific issues that directly affected them.
The UK is under strain from population growth and jobs/housing/NHS/transport infrasctructure are all directly affected and this is visible to folk in their daily lives.
I predict a decent turnout for the next election, and the sooner the main parties switch-on to the local issues (rather than frightening us about terrorists and starting another phoney war) the better.
I say fair play to the 2 UKIP defectors for the simple reason that they have resigned and applied for re-election, rather than ride the gravy train for the final 6 months. At least the voters will have an earlier chance to say "you don't speak for us" (Radiohead) or "You're the one that I want" (Travolta & ONJ).
If people vote for the party rather than the candidate then they fundamentally misunderstand how our parliamentary democracy works. John Bercow, for example, is a very different Tory to, say, Fabricant (at least if Bercow wasn't standing as a Speaker, but his political views were and are very different to Tories to the right of the party). Likewise David Skinner and David Miliband (when David Miliband was an MP) were on opposite sides of the Labour Party spectrum.
The only elections in this country where you vote for a party rather than a candidate are the European Parliament elections, as MEPs are picked from party lists.
I don't think that's true. I think there is a party list vote for the GLA, which is used to elect the top-up members, and believe the same applies for the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales. Scottish local authorities are also elected by some form of PR, I think - although you may regard Scotland as another country, notwithstanding the referendum result...
I imagine you're correct as I don't know the ins and outs of regional elections, I should have said the only nationwide elections.
The Tories couldn`t win the last election outright after 13 years of Labour and the most detested prime minister possible in Gordon Brown. What on earth makes them think they will win it outright this time? Not a chance in hell of an outright win!
The only chance the Tories had of winning was by fixing the wretchedly lopsided situation where Labour can win a workable majority on as little as 30% of the popular vote, whereas the Tories need to aim for 37-38% of the popular vote to win even a faint majority. They needed the Lib Dems onside in this Parliament to push through reforms that would force the Electoral Commission to redraw boundaries if it meant one party was unfairly benefiting from how the current boundaries were drawn. However the Lib Dems reneged on their deal in a massive hissy-fit because they fought a cack-handed AV referendum campaign, thus leaving Labour to continue to enjoy having one of the most one-sided election fights in any modern democracy.
The difficulty is that the main political parties have failed us all too many times. UKIP is set to benefit from that especially as the Tories continue to rip themselves apart over Europe. I agree that the Milliband factor is putting people off leaving the path clear for more charismatic figures like Farage. But there are also many people who would never vote for UKIP under any circumstances so where do these voters go? I have now spent my entire voting life basically wasting my vote. The right to vote was hard won, but is our current system what people fought for? At every level in my life where I continue to fight for various causes nonsultation has taken over. Basically our rulers are saying '' If you are lucky, we will ask you your views and then we will completely ignore you.' Throw in corruption and any realignments will also fail for exactly the same reasons as currently exist. I don't find the future interesting, merely utterly depressing.
I'm one of those people I will never vote for UKIP however, having always voted conservatives in the past I've lost all faith in them I am finding myself getting increasingly annoyed with them, but I can't stand Daffy Duck aka ed milliband. I know that labour promise to reinstate lost funding for frontline services and protect a lot of societies poorest that have been damaged badly by government cuts etc all sounds good but at what cost? A bigger deficit? I won't vote lib dem as its a wasted vote so what do I do? Abstain? Then it's a wasted right to vote.
UKIP will only effect the election by maybe splitting the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to win the odd seat they otherwise would have lost.
I doubt they will win any new seats.
Not heard much from the Lib Dems lately about proportional representation though.
There's a lot of people about who are disillusioned with the mainstream parties. I know of traditional Labour voters who have said they would consider voting UKIP. As a supporter of the Labour party myself and a long-term member, I find this strange and disappointing, but when you delve deeply, it seems people just warm to Farrage and see him as some sort of "man of the people". Actual policies don't seem to come into it. He seems to get the vote from people who generally don't like politicians.
UKIP will only effect the election by maybe splitting the Conservative vote and allowing Labour to win the odd seat they otherwise would have lost.
I doubt they will win any new seats.
Not heard much from the Lib Dems lately about proportional representation though.
There's a lot of people about who are disillusioned with the mainstream parties. I know of traditional Labour voters who have said they would consider voting UKIP. As a supporter of the Labour party myself and a long-term member, I find this strange and disappointing, but when you delve deeply, it seems people just warm to Farrage and see him as some sort of "man of the people". Actual policies don't seem to come into it. He seems to get the vote from people who generally don't like politicians.
You're right, he *is* a man of the people. He's absolutely nothing like those public school-educated, white, middle-age, upper-middle class men who are leaders of the other three parties.
So who does vote for UKIP? A breakdown of the YouGov data from 2013 concluded ... 'So what sort of portrait are we getting of the average UKIP supporter – older, probably not especially well off, probably not university educated, slightly more likely than average to be a working-class man, probably owning his home outright and living on a pension and some modest savings. Although YouGov didn’t produce figures for this demographic, he is almost certainly white. '
As a UKIP supporter, I don't blame for any MP to come to UKIP because they feel the same as I do with career politicians that look and sound the same and come from the same background. I was a Tory myself and I feel totally let down by the Tories and having looked at their history I realised they won't the party for me.
Anyone that says 'UKIP only picks votes from the Tories' could not be more incorrect. If you have a look at the by-election in South Shields where Labour are pretty strong in that area you will see a difference, let's look at the 2010 election result.
1st Labour - 18,995 2nd Tories - 7,886
UKIP did not field a candidate
Now let's look at the 2013 by-election, bare in mind Labour are well ahead in the polls at the moment.
Funny how Labour lost 5000 votes compared to 2010 so it's a chance that some of those old Labour votes are defecting to UKIP? At a recent meeting I attended a former long-life Labour voter told me he is UKIP as he does not class Labour the working class party anymore. I heard a rumour that a Labour MP may defect to UKIP, now that would be a turn up for the books won't it
I think the conservatives are much closer to UKIP in likeness thAn labour which is why the Tory MPs are defecting, UKIP stand for a lot of what conservatives used to stand for especially when it comes to European policy, a lot of older standing Tories relate to this and is closer to their current views. The ironical thing about all of the defection and the fact that UKIP are taking votes from their closest slightly right wing rivals is that it is what will make their and conservatives opposition "labour" win the next election. in actual fact the labour supporters although whole heartedly disagree with UKIP must love the fact theyre around.
Not so much. EU/immigration aside (or included, if you like) UKIP are running a politically incoherent agenda designed to catch the attention of blue collar voters. For example, tax proposals that appear to support people in low pay but actually offer nil benefit to someone on £10k a year, coupled with significant tax cuts for the better off, which is their real interest. Proposals for a 5 per cent VAT increase on expensive shoes and handbags belong in a comedy sketch show rather than a political manifesto but are not doubt designed to appeal to stupid people - i.e. would amount to £10 on a £200 pair of shoes. I have no idea how little that might raise, but it's not serious politics. I don't imagine that will stop some people voting for it, however - and of course that's an indictment of the big parties, although I think the electoral system is part of the problem as it shapes the offer they have to make to appeal to swing voters.
Your living in a different world if you think UKIP propose that, have you not seen their latest policy on tax?
Comments
We have a coalition government. Many of those who voted Lib Dem must be horrified that they have been "sleeping with the enemy".
The Tories have tried to use their coalition to "modernise" the party by hugging trees, pursing gay marriage etc - alienating much of the "blue rinse" set.
There has been a scism across the Tory diaspora of those who were broadly business supporting Tories who see the EU as one huge market opportunity and those who are rapped in the flag of Empire. The coalition with the Lib Dems has given a chance for a party to their right - UKIP to start peeling these people away.
In Scotland the toxification of the Lib Dems by joining the coalition with the wicked Tories has loosened around 10% of votes - in the past these would have gone mainly to Labour but the current Labour party is shambolic and ineffective in Scotland, and it's policy wonk UK leader looks and sound like he comes from another planet.
Add a couple of popularist politicians in Farage and Salmond who have the common touch and it makes for a much less certain outcome as they bite into traditional voting patterns.
The election will be very interesting.
We have a coalition government. Many of those who voted Lib Dem must be horrified that they have been "sleeping with the enemy".
The Tories have tried to use their coalition to "modernise" the party by hugging trees, pursing gay marriage etc - alienating much of the "blue rinse" set.
There has been a scism across the Tory diaspora of those who were broadly business supporting Tories who see the EU as one huge market opportunity and those who are rapped in the flag of Empire. The coalition with the Lib Dems has given a chance for a party to their right - UKIP to start peeling these people away.
In Scotland the toxification of the Lib Dems by joining the coalition with the wicked Tories has loosened around 10% of votes - in the past these would have gone mainly to Labour but the current Labour party is shambolic and ineffective in Scotland, and it's policy wonk UK leader looks and sound like he comes from another planet.
Add a couple of popularist politicians in Farage and Salmond who have the common touch and it makes for a much less certain outcome as they bite into traditional voting patterns.
The election will be very interesting.
The only elections in this country where you vote for a party rather than a candidate are the European Parliament elections, as MEPs are picked from party lists.
This has always been a fascinating debate ,is it the MP or the Party people vote for? Political scientists always claimed an incumbency factor would not be worth more than 2,000 votes.
Even exceptional local constituency MP's get beaten in the end . In the lowest point of the Labour Party in 1983 Ken Weetch remarkably held Ipswich against the Tories. Four years later following boundary changes he couldn't hold on . A more local example would be Woolwich's SDP MP John Cartwright who beat Labour in 1983 and 1987 before losing in 1992.
I don't think that's true. I think there is a party list vote for the GLA, which is used to elect the top-up members, and believe the same applies for the devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales. Scottish local authorities are also elected by some form of PR, I think - although you may regard Scotland as another country, notwithstanding the referendum result...
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/told-tories-birmingham/
Straight choice between Cameron and Miliband? Only one winner there.
Throw in corruption and any realignments will also fail for exactly the same reasons as currently exist. I don't find the future interesting, merely utterly depressing.
Personally I think UKIP are going to ride the 'Boris' effect, when their voters won't all realise what they're voting for but they vote based on impetus and image.
I realise for myself in recent times that sadly and shockingly I am no longer voting for anybody, but I vote against people.
When a lot of politicians shout about having this or that much support or backing they may do well to pause and think that their voters may actually be anti someone/thing else and not particularly in favour of them.
The UK is under strain from population growth and jobs/housing/NHS/transport infrasctructure are all directly affected and this is visible to folk in their daily lives.
I predict a decent turnout for the next election, and the sooner the main parties switch-on to the local issues (rather than frightening us about terrorists and starting another phoney war) the better.
I say fair play to the 2 UKIP defectors for the simple reason that they have resigned and applied for re-election, rather than ride the gravy train for the final 6 months. At least the voters will have an earlier chance to say "you don't speak for us" (Radiohead) or "You're the one that I want" (Travolta & ONJ).
I doubt they will win any new seats.
Not heard much from the Lib Dems lately about proportional representation though.
'So what sort of portrait are we getting of the average UKIP supporter – older, probably not especially well off, probably not university educated, slightly more likely than average to be a working-class man, probably owning his home outright and living on a pension and some modest savings. Although YouGov didn’t produce figures for this demographic, he is almost certainly white. '
Anyone that says 'UKIP only picks votes from the Tories' could not be more incorrect. If you have a look at the by-election in South Shields where Labour are pretty strong in that area you will see a difference, let's look at the 2010 election result.
1st Labour - 18,995
2nd Tories - 7,886
UKIP did not field a candidate
Now let's look at the 2013 by-election, bare in mind Labour are well ahead in the polls at the moment.
1st Labour - 12,493
2nd UKIP - 5,988
3rd Tories - 2,857
Funny how Labour lost 5000 votes compared to 2010 so it's a chance that some of those old Labour votes are defecting to UKIP? At a recent meeting I attended a former long-life Labour voter told me he is UKIP as he does not class Labour the working class party anymore. I heard a rumour that a Labour MP may defect to UKIP, now that would be a turn up for the books won't it
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29368838