can't take them seriously, might as well vote Green
I think you will find that Cameron and Miliband take a very different view. If things continue at the present rate, the election could provide a few challenges.
Whatever your views on UKIP you have to tip your hat to Farage for his comment that North of Birmingham if you vote Conservative you get Labour (given the narrowness of Labour's majority in Heywood).
A nice riposte to the ongoing slurs of the cast iron one......
can't take them seriously, might as well vote Green
I think you will find that Cameron and Miliband take a very different view. If things continue at the present rate, the election could provide a few challenges.
An interesting point of view made on last night's "This Week" programme was that following the situation in Scotland, labour and LibDems may well lose a lot of seats to the SNP. This strengthens the Conservative position as regards a majority in the HoC as it could be as many as 20 seats that Labour lose. However, if UKIP trends continue, this will shift things further. It could be that both Lab and Con seats fall to UKIP. The interesting point that Michael Portillo made on that programme was that it is increasingly likely that we will have another hung parliament, but that it won't be the LibDems who call the shots - it will be down to a probable confidence and supply arrangements with Nationalists - UKIP or SNP.
I think we can await a short but bloody war in Labour with Miliband getting knifed in the back following the Rochester & Strood by-election and the possibility that Clegg might be pushed (although I think this is less likely before the General Election). I also reckon Cameron will have to head UKIP off at the pass, so to speak, and is more likely than not to promise a referendum on in/out of Europe to stop some of his Eurosceptic MPs from jumping to UKIP and to deter UKIP voters.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to get very interesting......!
Hi Iainambler, you make some good points, people are perhaps underestimating how much trouble can be caused by a relatively small number of seats. You have raised the possibility of a Salman/Farage co-operation, and even though I am currently liking the UKIP advance, that frightens me a bit. As you say, both Miliband and Clegg have looked vulnerable, and without the prescence of UKIP I would be expecting a clear majority for the Conservatives. Perhaps the whole face of politics is going to change, but it sure as hell is unlikely to be boring as it has often been.
Hardly surprising. Large parts of the country have had enough. It's all about registering a vote over a single issue which affects a lot of peoples lives which isn't being addressed by the mainstream parties. It happened in Sweden recently and it's on the way to happening here as well.
UKIP .. the new boys on the block usurping the brave wishy washy Liberal Democrats, the party formed by the right wing of the labour party who were opposed to Wilson, Healey, Callaghan and the Trade Union 'barons'. Like the old LibDems, in the next General Election, UKIP will finish a close third in 500 constituencies up and down the nation, they might win 7 to 12 seats ?? .. anymore than that would surprise me
I find it staggering that UKIP got within 600 votes of winning at Heywood causing a recount. Like them or not they are making big inroads and the other parties are worried because no one really knows what sort of support they will get at the next general election and whose votes they will take.
Can't see either the Libs or Labour getting rid of their leaders before the election.
Cameron has already promised an in/out referendum in 2017. It's been Tory party policy since early 2013.
The thing is that if anyone believed Cameron's promise, UKIP would not be on the rise. If Cameron was to give an absolute promise - i.e. "if you give me a clear majority you get it passed by parliament or else I'll resign" then that might appease prospective 'Kippers. I'm not sure if it is totally party policy though - IIRC it was a manifesto pledge, and they are not worth the toilet paper they are printed on - but happy to stand correected if I'm wrong.
Given that Miliband is seen as exceedingly weak following his Party conference he is in a very precipitous position. There is enough time to shore up the traditional Labour vote if he goes sooner rather than later. The political landscape is going to radically change whatever happens - but IMHO if Miliband is replaced Labour stand a chance of keeping a lot more seats than if he stays. Watch this space....
New Statesman article reads like panic stations from the left to me. No different to the right warning against voting labour because of their association with principles of communism. Any ideas contra to left wing ideology is classed as a "phobia" or worse still populist.
I am undecided but this article is worthless in addressing the real issues people think need addressing.
The thing is that if anyone believed Cameron's promise, UKIP would not be on the rise. If Cameron was to give an absolute promise - i.e. "if you give me a clear majority you get it passed by parliament or else I'll resign" then that might appease prospective 'Kippers. I'm not sure if it is totally party policy though - IIRC it was a manifesto pledge, and they are not worth the toilet paper they are printed on - but happy to stand correected if I'm wrong.
Given that Miliband is seen as exceedingly weak following his Party conference he is in a very precipitous position. There is enough time to shore up the traditional Labour vote if he goes sooner rather than later. The political landscape is going to radically change whatever happens - but IMHO if Miliband is replaced Labour stand a chance of keeping a lot more seats than if he stays. Watch this space....
Well, maybe people believe him and maybe they don't. Cameron, Osborne, May and every other senior figure in the party have said definitively that there will be an in/out referendum in 2017. When the LibDems broke a clear pledge on tuition fees, it pretty much killed them electorally. The Tories will not make the same mistake over a far more important issue.
If the Tories get in they will either hold an in/out referendum in 2017 or they will be finished as a party i.e. down to single figures in the polls, face a huge split with multiple defections etc. So yeah, I believe that if the Tories are in power in 2017 there will be an in/out referendum. In fact I'd give odds of 20 to 1 if anyone is interested.
I think its time everyone dropped the "racist" comments. Not all UKIP's potential voters ar racist, and neither are all Conservative and Labour potential voters non racist. It has gone beyond this and opponents of UKIP need to rise above it before it becomes counter-productive.
What I found rather funny was Cameron banging on about how a vote for UKIP might get you Millipede. The reality in Heywood was that 700 votes for the Tories saved Labour. Cameron is stuffed over this. He is going to have to enter into some sort of pact with UKIP before the election or risk watching Labour win multiple seats where the right wing vote is split. If he toughs it out the Tories won't get a majority, and he'll get knifed in the back. I can't see him winning back UKIP voters with promises of referendums that ain't gonna happen. He made a grave error in dismissing UKIP as an irrelevance a few years back. What he now needs to do is let UKIP take on Labour in Labour strongholds, in exchange for them backing off in the Tory ones. Anyone can see that but will it happen?
Labour of course is now probably more in danger of losing floating voters to UKIP than the Tories are, but what can they do about it? Not a lot really.
The thing is that if anyone believed Cameron's promise, UKIP would not be on the rise. If Cameron was to give an absolute promise - i.e. "if you give me a clear majority you get it passed by parliament or else I'll resign" then that might appease prospective 'Kippers. I'm not sure if it is totally party policy though - IIRC it was a manifesto pledge, and they are not worth the toilet paper they are printed on - but happy to stand correected if I'm wrong.
Given that Miliband is seen as exceedingly weak following his Party conference he is in a very precipitous position. There is enough time to shore up the traditional Labour vote if he goes sooner rather than later. The political landscape is going to radically change whatever happens - but IMHO if Miliband is replaced Labour stand a chance of keeping a lot more seats than if he stays. Watch this space....
Well, maybe people believe him and maybe they don't. Cameron, Osborne, May and every other senior figure in the party have said definitively that there will be an in/out referendum in 2017. When the LibDems broke a clear pledge on tuition fees, it pretty much killed them electorally. The Tories will not make the same mistake over a far more important issue.
If the Tories get in they will either hold an in/out referendum in 2017 or they will be finished as a party i.e. down to single figures in the polls, face a huge split with multiple defections etc. So yeah, I believe that if the Tories are in power in 2017 there will be an in/out referendum. In fact I'd give odds of 20 to 1 if anyone is interested.
Comments
I think you will find that Cameron and Miliband take a very different view. If things continue at the present rate, the election could provide a few challenges.
A nice riposte to the ongoing slurs of the cast iron one......
However, if UKIP trends continue, this will shift things further. It could be that both Lab and Con seats fall to UKIP. The interesting point that Michael Portillo made on that programme was that it is increasingly likely that we will have another hung parliament, but that it won't be the LibDems who call the shots - it will be down to a probable confidence and supply arrangements with Nationalists - UKIP or SNP.
I think we can await a short but bloody war in Labour with Miliband getting knifed in the back following the Rochester & Strood by-election and the possibility that Clegg might be pushed (although I think this is less likely before the General Election).
I also reckon Cameron will have to head UKIP off at the pass, so to speak, and is more likely than not to promise a referendum on in/out of Europe to stop some of his Eurosceptic MPs from jumping to UKIP and to deter UKIP voters.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to get very interesting......!
Cameron has already promised an in/out referendum in 2017. It's been Tory party policy since early 2013.
Welcome to the new politics.......
NOW that would be exciting!
Like the old LibDems, in the next General Election, UKIP will finish a close third in 500 constituencies up and down the nation, they might win 7 to 12 seats ?? .. anymore than that would surprise me
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/02/ukip-party-bigots-lets-look-evidence
Like them or not they are making big inroads and the other parties are worried because no one really knows what sort of support they will get at the next general election and whose votes they will take.
I'm not sure if it is totally party policy though - IIRC it was a manifesto pledge, and they are not worth the toilet paper they are printed on - but happy to stand correected if I'm wrong.
Given that Miliband is seen as exceedingly weak following his Party conference he is in a very precipitous position. There is enough time to shore up the traditional Labour vote if he goes sooner rather than later. The political landscape is going to radically change whatever happens - but IMHO if Miliband is replaced Labour stand a chance of keeping a lot more seats than if he stays. Watch this space....
I am undecided but this article is worthless in addressing the real issues people think need addressing.
If the Tories get in they will either hold an in/out referendum in 2017 or they will be finished as a party i.e. down to single figures in the polls, face a huge split with multiple defections etc. So yeah, I believe that if the Tories are in power in 2017 there will be an in/out referendum. In fact I'd give odds of 20 to 1 if anyone is interested.
What I found rather funny was Cameron banging on about how a vote for UKIP might get you Millipede. The reality in Heywood was that 700 votes for the Tories saved Labour. Cameron is stuffed over this. He is going to have to enter into some sort of pact with UKIP before the election or risk watching Labour win multiple seats where the right wing vote is split. If he toughs it out the Tories won't get a majority, and he'll get knifed in the back. I can't see him winning back UKIP voters with promises of referendums that ain't gonna happen. He made a grave error in dismissing UKIP as an irrelevance a few years back. What he now needs to do is let UKIP take on Labour in Labour strongholds, in exchange for them backing off in the Tory ones. Anyone can see that but will it happen?
Labour of course is now probably more in danger of losing floating voters to UKIP than the Tories are, but what can they do about it? Not a lot really.