General Election 2015 official thread
Comments
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At no point did I deny that there might be shy Tories (or for that matter shy Ukip, shy Labour...). It does seem "likely" (to use your word) that this was part of the reason for the swing.Fiiish said:
When I said that there was going to be an unexpected Tory swing on polling day due to Shy Tories, you said I was wrong and couldn't prove it. Would you, on the evidence of today's results, be willing to consider that some of the surprise swing today was likely down to shy Tories?Chizz said:
"Romping home" was not the right description based on the Exit poll, which, you'll remember, did not show a Tory majority. However, when the votes were counted, they did indeed romp to a small majority.Covered End said:
You were saying Chizz ?Chizz said:
I am just surprised that a poll indicating that the Tories have failed to win a majority for the fifth successive general election, is described as "romping home".stonemuse said:
So you are not surprised then? I'm amazed how big the difference is.Chizz said:
"Romp home"?Covered End said:Exit polls showing Tories to romp home.
Tories 316
Labour 239
SNP 58
Others 25
Lib Dems 10
UKIP 2
*chuckles*
Actually it was even more rompier than predicted.
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?
Where I did disagree with you, is that you claimed to be able to prove that some people had made up their minds prior to a poll, told the pollster that they were undecided, and then went on to vote Tory. I asked you - out of interest - how it could be proved, given that (a) we can't know who they were and (b) they were not replying truthfully to the pollster. You claimed you could, but wouldn't.
I shan't be asking you again to attempt to do so because (a) I still don't believe you can, (b) if you can, I don't believe you will, and (c) I have completely lost interest.
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Oooorrrdder. Order!AFKABartram said:Red in Se8, no more personal abuse now please, final warning, couple of posts today have not been on.
Fish, and others getting involved in the silly tit for tat stuff take a bit more of a back seat on this please. Rightly or wrongly, a few of you are getting into too many spats and it's proving to divisive and spoiling the contributions of those that aren't playing that game.
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every few pages this thread breaks down again and emotions get the better of one another. as someone that posts quite often I genuinely get great enjoyment from participating and engaging.
For the most part the more consistent posters on this thread have put their opposing views across passionately and with respect, but let us all try and rise above it when it gets too heated. We have a great community on here and judging by the frequency of the regular posters, whether you be Tory, Labour, UKIP or even Millwall, you too enjoy the interaction and wealth of discussion on here.
I 100% appreciate it's not my place to police a site that is very accepting of all sorts of different views, the moderators do an excellent job already. I'm just asking maybe next time someone throws an insult, just ignore.
If I'm come across as a twat in saying this then so be it, just want to get the same enjoyment I do everyday from this site. Moderators if I have stepped over the line in putting this across when not my place I apologise.7 -
He is a brilliant, principled, decent man.se9addick said:
Reading his biography he sounds interesting, war hero, seems fairly working class (basing that on the fact that he's from Nottingham and doesn't seem to have gone to some sort of private school). Might make a nice change.Redmidland said:Dan Jarvis would be my choice by a country mile
As such he is so unlike so many politicians he may suffer huge back stabbing.
But that notwithstanding, he would get my vote in an instant.
Not being one of the torylab oxbridge elitists is another major plus for him.0 -
Nrvermind0
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@Fiiish quality mate, you've been really entertaining the last few days. So many people rattled its great.
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I saw that Sadie, but I will keep quiet lolsadiejane1981 said:Nrvermind
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Oh the irony of that post is priceless.Fiiish said:
Says the guy deciding to call people twats in a discussion he isn't even involved in.ShootersHillGuru said:Give up now Seth you are arguing with a professional twat.
You're beyond parody now.
Edit : just looked who "liked " you post. Are you rehearsing as the three stooges now ?
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Au contraire. Just got into the parliamentary party. Time to network and plot. Dave has already stated he won't seek a third term. Dave will be forced to give him a front bench job in say 2 years ? Perfect timing for Boris I think.seth plum said:Not a good night for Boris I suspect.
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Here's a few scenariosbrogib said:What could happen re. Scotland and the Union now and how quickly?
1. SNP declare that, as they have had such a dramatic increase in seats, this is a clear mandate to demand another referendum. I think this is unlikely.
2. SNP waits until the in-out EU referendum and demands that, as part of the voting mechanism, no part of the UK (eg England) voting to leave the EU will mean that the whole of the UK is forced out. Cameron won't be able to agree to that (his mandate is from England). SNP will react by demanding an immediate independence referendum.
3. SNP votes against every Tory Act, Bill and proposal until - a few years from now - the Tory majority disappears (deaths, defections, imprisonment, etc). They then vote against the Government in a vote of confidence; then support Labour/LibDems/others in a rainbow coalition, on condition of another independence vote.2 -
As AFKA requested I'm calling time on this pointless exchange. It's been fun but it's not really fair on other posters to draw this out. It's a shame that you sent me a PM apologising to me for calling me a prick and you still carry on in public like this. But it's not going any further than this thread.
#COYR2 -
So generous of you - Your such a big man!Fiiish said:As AFKA requested I'm calling time on this pointless exchange. It's been fun but it's not really fair on other posters to draw this out. It's a shame that you sent me a PM apologising to me for calling me a prick and you still carry on in public like this. But it's not going any further than this thread.
#COYR
Troll0 -
Interesting point over Europe. The much vaunted "market" will be very skittish in about another years time with the prospect of the in/out referendum looming. Could have a detrimental impact on the economy for 18 months prior to the vote and who knows how long if the vote is "out"Henry Irving said:Interesting election.
Tories win which isn't a surprise. Labour need to have a very credible letter (Wilson/Blair) and a centre left agenda to win. That they have such a large majority is a surprise but that is FPTP. PR isn't going to come anytime soon. We had our chance when the LDs made it a condition of the coalition and we, the people said no. No ruling party is going to introduce it of their own volition for obvious reasons.
UKIP polled a lot of votes but then so did the LDs last time. Look what happened to them?
Once Cameron has the euro in/out poll UKIP's main fox has been shot. If we vote to stay in, and I think we will, then there is only immigration left for them and again Cameron can now act on that with the majority he has. Reckless losing his seat and a tory govt means no more right wing tories will jump ship.
But in reality UKIP (but not Farage) have won. The euro referendum will happen and immigration will be controlled more than previously. So their two main issues will be on the agenda or will take place. I suspect Farage will try to make a come back but he will be a marginal figure.
Labour will have a big public fight and will try and find a presentable leader. No idea who as I'm not a labour supporter. They will come again as they still have a strong support base but will have to wait for the Tories to get it wrong ala Major in the late 80s before they are back in power. Will have to see how well Cameron can marshall his MPs behind a stay in the EU vote and how the economy does. And if the protest vote switches from UKIP where will it go?
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And already the DWP have announced that they're looking to make changes to the Access to Work fund, that helps fund equipment and support to enable the most disabled people get into work. Bastards.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/hours-after-the-election-the-dwp-says-is-looking-to-cut-a-disabled-access-to-work-scheme-10237191.html4 -
I don't know about that on top of the £143k he gets as Mayor of London, he just added £68k for becoming a MP.seth plum said:Not a good night for Boris I suspect.
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I retract my apology ;0)Fiiish said:As AFKA requested I'm calling time on this pointless exchange. It's been fun but it's not really fair on other posters to draw this out. It's a shame that you sent me a PM apologising to me for calling me a prick and you still carry on in public like this. But it's not going any further than this thread.
#COYR
Edit : and you didn't have the grace to acknowledge it.
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Sore loser? The Tories won fairly - let's see what they do to the country. I only overreacted when you turned the heat on my voting preference, which wasn't even Labour and probably never will be.0
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Agree. And what exactly will "out" mean?ShootersHillGuru said:
Interesting point over Europe. The much vaunted "market" will be very skittish in about another years time with the prospect of the in/out referendum looming. Could have a detrimental impact on the economy for 18 months prior to the vote and who knows how long if the vote is "out"Henry Irving said:Interesting election.
Tories win which isn't a surprise. Labour need to have a very credible letter (Wilson/Blair) and a centre left agenda to win. That they have such a large majority is a surprise but that is FPTP. PR isn't going to come anytime soon. We had our chance when the LDs made it a condition of the coalition and we, the people said no. No ruling party is going to introduce it of their own volition for obvious reasons.
UKIP polled a lot of votes but then so did the LDs last time. Look what happened to them?
Once Cameron has the euro in/out poll UKIP's main fox has been shot. If we vote to stay in, and I think we will, then there is only immigration left for them and again Cameron can now act on that with the majority he has. Reckless losing his seat and a tory govt means no more right wing tories will jump ship.
But in reality UKIP (but not Farage) have won. The euro referendum will happen and immigration will be controlled more than previously. So their two main issues will be on the agenda or will take place. I suspect Farage will try to make a come back but he will be a marginal figure.
Labour will have a big public fight and will try and find a presentable leader. No idea who as I'm not a labour supporter. They will come again as they still have a strong support base but will have to wait for the Tories to get it wrong ala Major in the late 80s before they are back in power. Will have to see how well Cameron can marshall his MPs behind a stay in the EU vote and how the economy does. And if the protest vote switches from UKIP where will it go?
Immediate withdrawal of the whole of the UK from the EU? Which will, of course, be completely disregarding the views of the majority of voters in Scotland and Wales
Immediate withdrawal of the part(s) of the UK that voted "out" Which would trigger the immediate break-up of the UK, if, for example, England voted "out" and Wales and/or Scotland voted "in".
A fresh set of negotiations? Meaning that it won't actually be an in-out referendum as promised. Instead, we'll be asked "do you agree with the newly-negotiated terms?" If we say "yes", we carry on; if we say "no", we (try to) renegotiate.0 -
I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.0
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Well Dave says its in or out. Not much room for manoeuvre there.kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
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So much for protecting disabled peoplealiwibble said:And already the DWP have announced that they're looking to make changes to the Access to Work fund, that helps fund equipment and support to enable the most disabled people get into work. Bastards.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/hours-after-the-election-the-dwp-says-is-looking-to-cut-a-disabled-access-to-work-scheme-10237191.html3 -
Why don't you out tonight and have a proper fight ffsIAgree said:
So generous of you - Your such a big man!Fiiish said:As AFKA requested I'm calling time on this pointless exchange. It's been fun but it's not really fair on other posters to draw this out. It's a shame that you sent me a PM apologising to me for calling me a prick and you still carry on in public like this. But it's not going any further than this thread.
#COYR
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I thought Cameron said he will renegotiate first, then have the referendum afterwards.
Not sure how that would work though.0 -
then it will be a "in" vote from me.ShootersHillGuru said:
Well Dave says its in or out. Not much room for manoeuvre there.kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
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Um, I've probably got this wrong but isn't the deal that he will offer an "in or out" referendum but only AFTER his attempts to renegotiate our relationship? What happens if as is likely imo those negotiations fail?kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
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Apologies, I know I didn't and I should have. As I said I'm going to ignore the continued antics of the others.ShootersHillGuru said:
I retract my apology ;0)Fiiish said:As AFKA requested I'm calling time on this pointless exchange. It's been fun but it's not really fair on other posters to draw this out. It's a shame that you sent me a PM apologising to me for calling me a prick and you still carry on in public like this. But it's not going any further than this thread.
#COYR
Edit : and you didn't have the grace to acknowledge it.
If anyone wants a reaction try pouring vinegar on baking soda and watch that instead.0 -
I believe that's correct. If they fail, which I agree is likely unless we get allies, it will be in or out based on existing conditions.Bournemouth Addick said:
Um, I've probably got this wrong but isn't the deal that he will offer an "in or out" referendum but only AFTER he's attempts to renegotiate our relationship? What happens if as is likely imo those negotiations fail?kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
However, something tells me it just won't be this straightforward.0 -
Don't believe they could have such a fudge option.kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
"Renegotiate" would require another vote on what had been regenotiated and that would mean dragging out the process for even longer. It will be a yes or no IMHO and liblabcon and the press plus big business will all campaign to stay in.
Latest polls (yes I know) say it is neck and neck on staying in or leaving.0 -
conlabsnplibHenry Irving said:
Don't believe they could have such a fudge option.kentaddick said:I'm guessing there will be 3 options on the in out referendum - in, out and "renegotiate". The tories know that leaving the EU will be bad news, this referendum will be to keep their backbenchers quiet, but i think the majority will vote for renegotiate. That or no would be my vote.
"Renegotiate" would require another vote on what had been regenotiated and that would mean dragging out the process for even longer. It will be a yes or no IMHO and liblabcon and the press plus big business will all campaign to stay in.
Latest polls (yes I know) say it is neck and neck on staying in or leaving.1
