Liked the way Wonderful Charm ran in the Foxhunters but then probably talking through my pocket as I backed it yesterday and prior for the GN at 160 average on Betfair. Nicholls confirmed after the race that, along with the winner, Pacha Du Polder, it heads for Aintree. Still available at 100/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair (100 on the Exchange), it's as short as 25/1 with Bet 365 and Stan James so can't see it going off anything like that 100/1.
I would wait until nearer the race and lay it at about 40/1. This will give you a profit of 275%
Surely Peanuts must be posting his wisdom somewhere? You can't put that much work into a single event and just keep it to yourself. If you're lurking Peanuts, please come back. We miss you!!!
That's a shame, a real shame. For selfish reasons I'm sure we agree this thread was wonderful reading and made me give a shit about this race
Also because he comes across as a bloody good bloke and I enjoy his very readable way of posting. Don't know how I'm going to explain to the wife my mystery contact won't be paying for a trip to Mexico this year mind you
No Sheedy. Backers get a higher price because they risk him not running. That is why i advised everyone to lay Don Poli, there was no chance of him running.
not quite peanuts but a blog i read had these facts so can discount some of the horses.
Horses To Avoid:
Age - 7 year old's rarely win this race, last 7 year old to do so was back in 1940 (that's a LONG time ago). Avoid - Minella Rocco (current favourite, now a N/R), Alary, Shantou Flyer, Le Mercurey, Double Shuffle, As De Mee & Sambremont.
Age - You have to go back to 1853 (yes the year) to find a horse older than 13 to have won a Grand National. Avoid - Vics Canvas (aged 14).
Age - Since the turn of the century only one (5.88%) horse aged 12 or older has won. Avoid - Maggio, Raz De Maree, Bless The Wings, Benbens, Alfie Spinner, Alvarado.
Weight - Top weighted horses have a poor record in the race. Avoid - Carlingford Loch.
Distance - Horses will need to stay, those that haven't won over 3m+ in a previous race (either hurdles or chasing, do not include PTP's, but have included 2m 7f in soft or heavy going) tend to have a poor winning record in this race. Avoid - Alelchi Inois, Lord Scoundrel, Ucello Conti, Ballynagour, Junction Fourteen, Stellar Notion, Cocktails At Dawn, Polidam, Lessons In Milan, Mountain King, The Crafty Butcher, Gone Too Far & Killer Crow.
Age - It's also worth pointing out that 8 year old's do not have a particularly strong record either, but are more progressive than 12yo's and more experienced than most 7yo's, so for that reason I include them in my calculations for the race.
The above are not certainties by any stretch, nothing in horse racing is, but these are a few trends I like to stick on the right side of and have done me well over the years. Also, many will not actually get a run anyway, so will be irrelevant come race day.
Good luck.
i currently have backed
more of that EW 20/1 the last sumurai EW 16/1 cause of causes EW 14/1
Highland Lodge will be my e/w bet but i have already made a good profit on the race. Finding the winner is no longer the way to look at it. Back at a good price and lay it off is the way to go.
Highland Lodge will be my e/w bet but i have already made a good profit on the race. Finding the winner is no longer the way to look at it. Back at a good price and lay it off is the way to go.
I know I'm being a bit thick here, but I don't understand how this actually works.
Highland Lodge will be my e/w bet but i have already made a good profit on the race. Finding the winner is no longer the way to look at it. Back at a good price and lay it off is the way to go.
I know I'm being a bit thick here, but I don't understand how this actually works.
You back a horse at a big price and lay it at a lower price. I advised backing Just a Par in my opening post at 170. I immediately put in a lay offer at 100 which gave a profit of 66.5% of the stake. I could have waited and made more but i was happy with that. I also advised laying Don Poli at any price as there was no chance of him running. He was withdrawn soon after the weights were revealed and i made money from people who believe what they read in the Sun. The trick is to pick a horse who will attract money so the price drops. In most races this is difficult, but in the National just about everything will be backed. The only risk is if the horse fails to get in the race due to the weight or if he is withdrawn through injury. I have made over £500 profit. I will have a fun bet on the race, Cause of Causes to win and a combination tricast with Just a Par and Highland Lodge.
1. THE LAST SAMURI (IRE), 9, 11-10, Kim Bailey (161) **** 14/1 Excellent second a year ago and looks even better this year; looks sure to make another bold bid.
2. MORE OF THAT (IRE), 9, 11-6, Jonjo O'Neill (157) ** 12/1 Fair sixth in Cheltenham Gold Cup last time and has touch of class; better since fitted with cheekpieces.
3. SHANTOU FLYER (IRE), 7, 11-5, Rebecca Curtis (156) *** 50/1 Stays 3m but yet to tackle extreme distances; likes good ground or softer.
4. PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE), 10, 11-5, Fergal O'Brien (156) ** 50/1 Often front runs; stays and jumps well and acts on any going.
5. SAPHIR DU RHEU (FR), 8, 11-5, Paul Nicholls (156) **** 16/1 In good form this season and ran his best race for years when fifth in Gold Cup; has not fallen since 2014.
6. ROI DES FRANCS (FR), 8, 11-3, Gordon Elliott (154) * 50/1 Stays well and showed benefit of blinkers first time when winning comfortably on latest outing.
7. WOUNDED WARRIOR (IRE), 8, 11-2, Noel Meade (153) * 50/1 Consistent and capable stayer but not a prolific winner; good jumper and should get around.
8. WONDERFUL CHARM (FR), 9, 11-2, Paul Nicholls (153) ** 40/1 Has had his enthusiasm rekindled in hunter chases; ran right up to best when second at Cheltenham last time; best on good ground.
9. TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR), 10, 11-1, Venetia Williams (152) * 40/1 Useful on his day and likes to race up with pace, which could well add to his stamina issues.
10. BLAKLION, 8, 11-1, Nigel Twiston-Davies (152) **** 12/1 Classy and holds his form well. Ran a fine race when second in Haydock’s Grand National Trial. Likes fast ground.
11. DROP OUT JOE, 9, 11-1, Charlie Longsdon (152) *** 50/1 Has only run 12 times in past 3 years so has had injury issues but definitely has ability; good ground is best.
12. LE MERCUREY (FR), 7, 11-0, Paul Nicholls (151) * 40/1 Fair performer but does not win often and stamina has to be taken on trust.
13. THE YOUNG MASTER, 8, 10-13, Neil Mulholland (150) ** 16/1 Won Bet365 Gold Cup last spring so stamina not an issue. Out of form since, including when falling 2 out here in December; showed a bit more last time.
14. CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA), 9, 10-13, Gordon Elliott (150) *** 14/1 Looks a likely type and won nicely over Cheltenham’s Cross Country track last time; stamina not an issue and ground should suit.
15. REGAL ENCORE (IRE), 9, 10-13, Anthony Honeyball (150) ** 50/1 Inconsistent but capable on a going day; best form on fast ground.
16. VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR), 8, 10-12, David Pipe (149) **** 10/1 Proven over the fences and this tough stayer, who appears to act on most types on gound, must be respected.
17. DEFINITLY RED (IRE), 8, 10-12, Brian Ellison (149) *** 10/1 Generally progressive and we have probably yet to see the best of him; impressive when beating The Last Samuri at Doncaster; strong player.
18. UCELLO CONTI (FR), (27), 9, 10-12, Gordon Elliott (149) ** 16/1 Fair performer but has not won since moving to Ireland and not since 2014 in France; 6th a year ago and aimed at this since.
19. DOUBLE SHUFFLE (IRE), 7, 10-12, Tom George (149) ** 40/1 On the upgrade and a likeable sort; acts on any ground; looks capable of playing his part.
20. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR), 10, 10-12, Venetia Williams (149) * 40/1 Smart chaser once but age is catching up with him; fourth in last year’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.
21. PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE), 9, 10-12, W. P. Mullins (149) *** 16/1 Improving and looks to have been targeted at this race; a solid jumper who seems to go on any ground.
22. ONE FOR ARTHUR (IRE), 8, 10-11, Lucinda Russell (148) *** 14/1 Third to Vieux Lion Rouge here in December and then won over 3m 5f at Warwick when wearing a tongue tie for the first time.
23. BALLYNAGOUR (IRE), (70), 11, 10-11, David Pipe (148) * 66/1 Was once smart but is hard to predict these days. Unseated rider at 19th fence last year.
24. O'FAOLAINS BOY (IRE), 10, 10-11, Rebecca Curtis (148) * 66/1 Appears to have lost his way this season and has in fact not won since December 2015; hard to fancy.
25. HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE), 11, 10-11, James Moffatt (148) *** 25/1 Has a good record over the fences in three attempts with form figures of 812 and this has been his target all season; bold show expected.
26. BISHOPS ROAD (IRE), 9, 10-10, Kerry Lee (147) * 50/1 Fair performer but has become prone to jumping mistakes and came down at the first over these fences at last year’s meeting.
27. LORD WINDERMERE (IRE), 11, 10-10, Jim Culloty (147) * 50/1 Won 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but is on the downgrade these days. Got as far as the 24th fence two years ago before pulling up.
28. SAINT ARE (FR), 11, 10-10, Tom George (147) ** 33/1 Finished second two years ago but has failed to finish on past two attempts over the fences. Looked close to best when second last time.
29. VICENTE (FR), (49), 8, 10-10, Paul Nicholls (147) *** 20/1 Won 2016 Scottish Grand National but disappointing since. However, his record suggests he is a spring horse and he could easily bounce back.
30. JUST A PAR (IRE), 10, 10-9, Paul Nicholls (146) ** 33/1 Finished 15th when a 40/1 chance in last year’s race. Returned to form at Newbury recently; good jumper.
31. MEASUREOFMYDREAMS (IRE), 9, 10-9, Noel Meade (146) ** 40/1 Favourite when an early faller in 2016 Scottish Grand National; lightly-raced this season and ran with some promise at Cheltenham last time.
32. RAZ DE MAREE (FR), 12, 10-9, Gavin Patrick Cromwell (146) *** 33/1 Finished 8th in 2014 National but improved since; has twice won Cork Grand National and finished second in Welsh National last December; solid stayer.
33. STELLAR NOTION (IRE), 9, 10-9, Henry de Bromhead (146) * 50/1 Normally races at short of 3m and has yet to prove he has the stamina for a contest such as this.Best on decent ground.
34. PENDRA (IRE), 9, 10-8, Charlie Longsdon (145) * 50/1 Was a 50-1 chance when a distant 13th a year ago but ran really well on only start since, when wearing blinkers for first time.
35. ROGUE ANGEL (IRE), 9, 10-8, M. F. Morris (145) ** 33/1 A brave winner of 2016 Irish Grand National; well behind Vieux Lion Rouge here in December and might need softer ground.
36. COCKTAILS AT DAWN, 9, 10-8, Nicky Henderson (145) * 100/1 Has a very patchy profile and fell in last year’s Topham (2m 5f) over the fences; unproven in stamina department.
37. THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE), 9, 10-7, M. F. Morris (144) ** 33/1 Has not won since landing the 2015 Irish Grand National although has run some fair races. Best with some give in the ground.
38. GAS LINE BOY (IRE), 11, 10-7, Ian Williams (144) * 66/1 Fell at the first when a 66/1 chance in 2015. Relatively consistent and stays well enough. Enjoys decent going.
39. GOODTOKNOW, 9, 10-7, Kerry Lee (144) ** 66/1 Stays well but is an in-an-out-perofmer who tends to throw in a really poor run from time to time. Seems to act on any going.
40. LA VATICANE (FR), 8, 10-6, David Pipe (143) * 100/1 Has twice got around over these fences but in much shorter races and stamina has to be an issue.
RESERVES:
DOCTOR HARPER (IRE), 9, 10-6, David Pipe (143) 66/1
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE), 12, 10-5, Gordon Elliott (142) 50/1
KNOCK HOUSE (IRE), 8, 10-3, Donald McCain (141) 66/1
Have backed Cause of Causes heavily after his performance at Cheltenham. Also put a little bit on definitely red. Going to put a bit on last samurai and then chuck a few quid on an outside shot
Comments
Also because he comes across as a bloody good bloke and I enjoy his very readable way of posting. Don't know how I'm going to explain to the wife my mystery contact won't be paying for a trip to Mexico this year mind you
Hope he is okay though.
Horses To Avoid:
Age - 7 year old's rarely win this race, last 7 year old to do so was back in 1940 (that's a LONG time ago). Avoid - Minella Rocco (current favourite, now a N/R), Alary, Shantou Flyer, Le Mercurey, Double Shuffle, As De Mee & Sambremont.
Age - You have to go back to 1853 (yes the year) to find a horse older than 13 to have won a Grand National. Avoid - Vics Canvas (aged 14).
Age - Since the turn of the century only one (5.88%) horse aged 12 or older has won. Avoid - Maggio, Raz De Maree, Bless The Wings, Benbens, Alfie Spinner, Alvarado.
Weight - Top weighted horses have a poor record in the race. Avoid - Carlingford Loch.
Distance - Horses will need to stay, those that haven't won over 3m+ in a previous race (either hurdles or chasing, do not include PTP's, but have included 2m 7f in soft or heavy going) tend to have a poor winning record in this race. Avoid - Alelchi Inois, Lord Scoundrel, Ucello Conti, Ballynagour, Junction Fourteen, Stellar Notion, Cocktails At Dawn, Polidam, Lessons In Milan, Mountain King, The Crafty Butcher, Gone Too Far & Killer Crow.
Age - It's also worth pointing out that 8 year old's do not have a particularly strong record either, but are more progressive than 12yo's and more experienced than most 7yo's, so for that reason I include them in my calculations for the race.
The above are not certainties by any stretch, nothing in horse racing is, but these are a few trends I like to stick on the right side of and have done me well over the years. Also, many will not actually get a run anyway, so will be irrelevant come race day.
Good luck.
i currently have backed
more of that EW 20/1
the last sumurai EW 16/1
cause of causes EW 14/1
all nrnb and 5 places.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/merseyrail-hit-strike-grand-national-12775553
really starting to fuck me off these constant train strikes.
1. THE LAST SAMURI (IRE), 9, 11-10, Kim Bailey (161) **** 14/1
Excellent second a year ago and looks even better this year; looks sure to make another bold bid.
2. MORE OF THAT (IRE), 9, 11-6, Jonjo O'Neill (157) ** 12/1
Fair sixth in Cheltenham Gold Cup last time and has touch of class; better since fitted with cheekpieces.
3. SHANTOU FLYER (IRE), 7, 11-5, Rebecca Curtis (156) *** 50/1
Stays 3m but yet to tackle extreme distances; likes good ground or softer.
4. PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE), 10, 11-5, Fergal O'Brien (156) ** 50/1
Often front runs; stays and jumps well and acts on any going.
5. SAPHIR DU RHEU (FR), 8, 11-5, Paul Nicholls (156) **** 16/1
In good form this season and ran his best race for years when fifth in Gold Cup; has not fallen since 2014.
6. ROI DES FRANCS (FR), 8, 11-3, Gordon Elliott (154) * 50/1
Stays well and showed benefit of blinkers first time when winning comfortably on latest outing.
7. WOUNDED WARRIOR (IRE), 8, 11-2, Noel Meade (153) * 50/1
Consistent and capable stayer but not a prolific winner; good jumper and should get around.
8. WONDERFUL CHARM (FR), 9, 11-2, Paul Nicholls (153) ** 40/1
Has had his enthusiasm rekindled in hunter chases; ran right up to best when second at Cheltenham last time; best on good ground.
9. TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR), 10, 11-1, Venetia Williams (152) * 40/1
Useful on his day and likes to race up with pace, which could well add to his stamina issues.
10. BLAKLION, 8, 11-1, Nigel Twiston-Davies (152) **** 12/1
Classy and holds his form well. Ran a fine race when second in Haydock’s Grand National Trial. Likes fast ground.
11. DROP OUT JOE, 9, 11-1, Charlie Longsdon (152) *** 50/1
Has only run 12 times in past 3 years so has had injury issues but definitely has ability; good ground is best.
12. LE MERCUREY (FR), 7, 11-0, Paul Nicholls (151) * 40/1
Fair performer but does not win often and stamina has to be taken on trust.
13. THE YOUNG MASTER, 8, 10-13, Neil Mulholland (150) ** 16/1
Won Bet365 Gold Cup last spring so stamina not an issue. Out of form since, including when falling 2 out here in December; showed a bit more last time.
14. CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA), 9, 10-13, Gordon Elliott (150) *** 14/1
Looks a likely type and won nicely over Cheltenham’s Cross Country track last time; stamina not an issue and ground should suit.
15. REGAL ENCORE (IRE), 9, 10-13, Anthony Honeyball (150) ** 50/1
Inconsistent but capable on a going day; best form on fast ground.
16. VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR), 8, 10-12, David Pipe (149) **** 10/1
Proven over the fences and this tough stayer, who appears to act on most types on gound, must be respected.
17. DEFINITLY RED (IRE), 8, 10-12, Brian Ellison (149) *** 10/1
Generally progressive and we have probably yet to see the best of him; impressive when beating The Last Samuri at Doncaster; strong player.
18. UCELLO CONTI (FR), (27), 9, 10-12, Gordon Elliott (149) ** 16/1
Fair performer but has not won since moving to Ireland and not since 2014 in France; 6th a year ago and aimed at this since.
19. DOUBLE SHUFFLE (IRE), 7, 10-12, Tom George (149) ** 40/1
On the upgrade and a likeable sort; acts on any ground; looks capable of playing his part.
20. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR), 10, 10-12, Venetia Williams (149) * 40/1
Smart chaser once but age is catching up with him; fourth in last year’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.
21. PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE), 9, 10-12, W. P. Mullins (149) *** 16/1
Improving and looks to have been targeted at this race; a solid jumper who seems to go on any ground.
22. ONE FOR ARTHUR (IRE), 8, 10-11, Lucinda Russell (148) *** 14/1
Third to Vieux Lion Rouge here in December and then won over 3m 5f at Warwick when wearing a tongue tie for the first time.
23. BALLYNAGOUR (IRE), (70), 11, 10-11, David Pipe (148) * 66/1
Was once smart but is hard to predict these days. Unseated rider at 19th fence last year.
24. O'FAOLAINS BOY (IRE), 10, 10-11, Rebecca Curtis (148) * 66/1
Appears to have lost his way this season and has in fact not won since December 2015; hard to fancy.
25. HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE), 11, 10-11, James Moffatt (148) *** 25/1
Has a good record over the fences in three attempts with form figures of 812 and this has been his target all season; bold show expected.
26. BISHOPS ROAD (IRE), 9, 10-10, Kerry Lee (147) * 50/1
Fair performer but has become prone to jumping mistakes and came down at the first over these fences at last year’s meeting.
27. LORD WINDERMERE (IRE), 11, 10-10, Jim Culloty (147) * 50/1
Won 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but is on the downgrade these days. Got as far as the 24th fence two years ago before pulling up.
28. SAINT ARE (FR), 11, 10-10, Tom George (147) ** 33/1
Finished second two years ago but has failed to finish on past two attempts over the fences. Looked close to best when second last time.
29. VICENTE (FR), (49), 8, 10-10, Paul Nicholls (147) *** 20/1
Won 2016 Scottish Grand National but disappointing since. However, his record suggests he is a spring horse and he could easily bounce back.
30. JUST A PAR (IRE), 10, 10-9, Paul Nicholls (146) ** 33/1
Finished 15th when a 40/1 chance in last year’s race. Returned to form at Newbury recently; good jumper.
31. MEASUREOFMYDREAMS (IRE), 9, 10-9, Noel Meade (146) ** 40/1
Favourite when an early faller in 2016 Scottish Grand National; lightly-raced this season and ran with some promise at Cheltenham last time.
32. RAZ DE MAREE (FR), 12, 10-9, Gavin Patrick Cromwell (146) *** 33/1
Finished 8th in 2014 National but improved since; has twice won Cork Grand National and finished second in Welsh National last December; solid stayer.
33. STELLAR NOTION (IRE), 9, 10-9, Henry de Bromhead (146) * 50/1
Normally races at short of 3m and has yet to prove he has the stamina for a contest such as this.Best on decent ground.
34. PENDRA (IRE), 9, 10-8, Charlie Longsdon (145) * 50/1
Was a 50-1 chance when a distant 13th a year ago but ran really well on only start since, when wearing blinkers for first time.
35. ROGUE ANGEL (IRE), 9, 10-8, M. F. Morris (145) ** 33/1
A brave winner of 2016 Irish Grand National; well behind Vieux Lion Rouge here in December and might need softer ground.
36. COCKTAILS AT DAWN, 9, 10-8, Nicky Henderson (145) * 100/1
Has a very patchy profile and fell in last year’s Topham (2m 5f) over the fences; unproven in stamina department.
37. THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE), 9, 10-7, M. F. Morris (144) ** 33/1
Has not won since landing the 2015 Irish Grand National although has run some fair races. Best with some give in the ground.
38. GAS LINE BOY (IRE), 11, 10-7, Ian Williams (144) * 66/1
Fell at the first when a 66/1 chance in 2015. Relatively consistent and stays well enough. Enjoys decent going.
39. GOODTOKNOW, 9, 10-7, Kerry Lee (144) ** 66/1
Stays well but is an in-an-out-perofmer who tends to throw in a really poor run from time to time. Seems to act on any going.
40. LA VATICANE (FR), 8, 10-6, David Pipe (143) * 100/1
Has twice got around over these fences but in much shorter races and stamina has to be an issue.
RESERVES:
DOCTOR HARPER (IRE), 9, 10-6, David Pipe (143) 66/1
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE), 12, 10-5, Gordon Elliott (142) 50/1
KNOCK HOUSE (IRE), 8, 10-3, Donald McCain (141) 66/1
SAMBREMONT, 7, 10-2, W. P. Mullins (139) 66/1
Horse with less than 10 previous chase runs are 0 from 85 attempts.
The last 12 winners have all won a class 2 or above races with 10 of last 12 winning listed or higher grade.
Any help? Ta