Keep the faith it will happen, as much as (most of us) detest Roland he has made a fortune in business so is playing a game of commercial poker and one no doubt, him and his advisors has played many a time, the Belgian ***t, unfortunately for us, made a terrible decision with getting into football and we and our club are now suffering, it will get better just keep the faith.
I was told from a very reliable source, the Aussies had upped their bid to 40.5m, this was matched by the Saudis soon after. I'm not saying this is 100% correct, but i would be surprised if this was off the mark.
I think we are up to £77m. This figure seems familiar....
Time to stop laughing. The distance between that number and £40M is not that much farther off than what many here said the club was worth (I can find several posts here claiming £15-20M a few months back.) How likely is that now?
And I also claimed he would never eat a £20-30M loss no matter what. 1291 pages and a year later, I've been more right that those who claimed a sale was imminent and have gone into hiding on this board.
We may have lost another £10M since you last posted on this matter. So you possibly think we're worth about £87M now ? I can't recall what you called it. But wasn't it along the lines of the more we lose/borrow, the more we are worth ? We could be the the most valuable club in the world one day
No, I claimed the "enterprise value" is higher. It is. But enterprise value is not necessarily the same as what a club will sell for.
We are worth more than we were bought, even though we are a League lower. That's a fact. There are dozens of people who claim that is not possible. Not only is it possible, it is a stone cold reality. And if we are ever sold, it will be proven.
Hey @NapaAddick just want to say I really enjoy your contributions and don’t really understand why some others want to constantly dig you out or lol your comments. I find them a different insight, particularly knowing youre a successful business owner when 95% others of us aren’t. Crack on mate
Just to say that I agree with that general sentiment; but as an owner of a - very modest -business for 24 years, including M&A work with global businesses that, like footie clubs, employ highly paid human talent as their key resource; and as somebody who has been trying to study the business of football for most of that time, I would still press @NapaAddick to be more concrete in his assertions about the current value of CAFC (and crucially, the criteria underpinning his figure). (Assuming that he considers £40m to be a realistic sale price - maybe I have misunderstood him on that).
Of course business people start from a stronger position than most in terms of understanding how to value a business; however non -business people tend to assume that "business" is all the same, works the same way. On the contrary it is essential to appreciate that there are massive differences in characteristics of businesses according to the products or services they provide. That is one reason why so many apparently successful businesspeople fail when running a football club. They fail to appreciate the particular characteristics of this business; some of those characteristics, e.g.the relationship with "customers" are almost..er...unique.
Of course I could be wrong in the way I look at valuation of a football club like CAFC. I am simply waiting for a rational business -based explanation of why I am wrong. From anyone.
If the Aussies are serious why don't they come out with a statement?
Their skulking about in the shadows, lack of transparency and shitty little website fill me with me no confidence at all.
'Skulking about in the shadows'? What are you talking about? They're trying to buy the club and not managing to do it. Do you want them to announce that every day?
If the Aussies are serious why don't they come out with a statement?
Their skulking about in the shadows, lack of transparency and shitty little website fill me with me no confidence at all.
'Skulking about in the shadows'? What are you talking about? They're trying to buy the club and not managing to do it. Do you want them to announce that every day?
Not at all. Bit for every bullshit statement the club spouts about negotiations I'd like some balance
He sees it differently @PragueAddick which is fair enough, he may well be ‘wrong’, but many people are hitting a laugh button on his serious contributions and I find that pathetic imo and not encouraging for what should be an open environment. Just my view
If the Aussies are serious why don't they come out with a statement?
Their skulking about in the shadows, lack of transparency and shitty little website fill me with me no confidence at all.
'Skulking about in the shadows'? What are you talking about? They're trying to buy the club and not managing to do it. Do you want them to announce that every day?
Not at all. Bit for every bullshit statement the club spouts about negotiations I'd like some balance
If the Aussies are serious why don't they come out with a statement?
Their skulking about in the shadows, lack of transparency and shitty little website fill me with me no confidence at all.
'Skulking about in the shadows'? What are you talking about? They're trying to buy the club and not managing to do it. Do you want them to announce that every day?
Not at all. Bit for every bullshit statement the club spouts about negotiations I'd like some balance
I did a summary on Monday which included the latest from the Aussies but he's refused to put it on the bitesize thread (or just hasn't had time).
Apologies, not been at a pc I can use for the last couple of days so restricted to phone use. Have a backlog of things to do today when hopefully I can get to library at lunch.
Thanks again for doing those @Henry Irving , they really are appreciated and I’m sure not now, but in years to come they will be a fantastic helpful bite size recollection of this saga
He sees it differently @PragueAddick which is fair enough, he may well be ‘wrong’, but many people are hitting a laugh button on his serious contributions and I find that pathetic imo and not encouraging for what should be an open environment. Just my view
An open environment - not if someone doesn't like the thread - then he just shuts it down or sinks it with nary a thought to the thread's contributors...........
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
Presumably, the substantive issue is the Aussies are unwilling or unable to pay the asking price, even though they put out a joint statement saying that the price has been agreed ?
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
Presumably, the substantive issue is the Aussies are unwilling or unable to pay the asking price, even though they put out a joint statement saying that the price has been agreed ?
I believe so.
The following is purely speculative on my part, but suppose Murphy has agreed the price but would-be members of his consortium are unwilling to pay it. Doesn’t that allow the club to say the price has been agreed without it being deliverable?
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
A good analogy.
If the Aussies have agreed the price and assuming all funds/investors are in place (?!), I cannot conceive this many weeks would have passed without the requisite paperwork having been submitted to the EFL. Notwithstanding the usual comments on here regarding NDAs, if nothing else it would be good if the exact position could be flushed out at the meeting with the club and shared with fans.
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
Presumably, the substantive issue is the Aussies are unwilling or unable to pay the asking price, even though they put out a joint statement saying that the price has been agreed ?
For the club to keep officially repeating that the hold up is due to the Aussies needing to submit some type of paperwork to the EFL then I would have thought that there must be at least some element of truth in that. Otherwise when the October meeting with the EFL takes place if the EFL deny that then any credibility the club has would be completely undermined; also if the 'paperwork' story were completely untrue then you would expect that the Aussies would feel free to break any NDA they may be under to deny it.
As regards the 'asking price' (or probably more exactly the agreed sale price) it may have been 'agreed' but negotiations may be ongoing on what is included in that 'agreed sale' price; i.e. that title comes without the ex-directors' loans, or even some 'darker' issues over title left over from the 'spivs' era?
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
I'm sure there is mileage in this one for driving puns
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
I'm sure there is mileage in this one for driving puns
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
I'm sure there is mileage in this one for driving puns
This takeover has been driving us all round the bend
The club’s explanation can be likened to the following. My daughter can’t drive because she hasn’t got a driving licence, and the government says she hasn’t applied to take the test. But the reason she hasn’t applied is that she hasn’t learned to drive.
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
Presumably, the substantive issue is the Aussies are unwilling or unable to pay the asking price, even though they put out a joint statement saying that the price has been agreed ?
For the club to keep officially repeating that the hold up is due to the Aussies needing to submit some type of paperwork to the EFL then I would have thought that there must be at least some element of truth in that. Otherwise when the October meeting with the EFL takes place if the EFL deny that then any credibility the club has would be completely undermined; also if the 'paperwork' story were completely untrue then you would expect that the Aussies would feel free to break any NDA they may be under to deny it.
As regards the 'asking price' (or probably more exactly the agreed sale price) it may have been 'agreed' but negotiations may be ongoing on what is included in that 'agreed sale' price; i.e. that title comes without the ex-directors' loans, or even some 'darker' issues over title left over from the 'spivs' era?
For the club to be repeating anything proves nothing whatsoever. The Belgian regime has a proven and extensive record of half truths and outright lies and an utter refusal to accept any culpability.
From the Aussies’ pov, where’s the rush until Christmas? Why take on RD’s monthly losses with no power to change anything?
On that basis you'd never buy a football club
There's plenty to do with the club. Planning for the next transfer window, rebuilding the staff morale and numbers, restarting the training ground project, filling in the potholes etc
Never believed the £40M figure, still stunned if the Aussies or anyone would pay £25M for us. Personally reckon we are worth nowt with those huge continued losses to underwrite until and if ever we make the PL. RD should be snapping their arm off to simply take the club from him and put an end to his losses.
I can't remember who said it (LDV ?) but the fact we are losing £1m pm is what is putting off most investors. Losses of that size can't be sustained unless you have a Lookman or a few Gomez's to sell every year.
I fear its going to get worse before it gets any better.
Does that include the £1.8M a year we are paying Roland in interest?
Comments
Their skulking about in the shadows, lack of transparency and shitty little website fill me with me no confidence at all.
Of course business people start from a stronger position than most in terms of understanding how to value a business; however non -business people tend to assume that "business" is all the same, works the same way. On the contrary it is essential to appreciate that there are massive differences in characteristics of businesses according to the products or services they provide. That is one reason why so many apparently successful businesspeople fail when running a football club. They fail to appreciate the particular characteristics of this business; some of those characteristics, e.g.the relationship with "customers" are almost..er...unique.
Of course I could be wrong in the way I look at valuation of a football club like CAFC. I am simply waiting for a rational business -based explanation of why I am wrong. From anyone.
I did a summary on Monday which included the latest from the Aussies but he's refused to put it on the bitesize thread (or just hasn't had time).
Thanks again for doing those @Henry Irving , they really are appreciated and I’m sure not now, but in years to come they will be a fantastic helpful bite size recollection of this saga
So the claim that she hasn’t applied for a full licence is true but also disingenuous, because she is not in a position to apply. The paperwork is not the issue, and this, I think, is what has riled the EFL about the club’s explanation. It’s an attempt to divert attention from the substantive issue.
The following is purely speculative on my part, but suppose Murphy has agreed the price but would-be members of his consortium are unwilling to pay it. Doesn’t that allow the club to say the price has been agreed without it being deliverable?
If the Aussies have agreed the price and assuming all funds/investors are in place (?!), I cannot conceive this many weeks would have passed without the requisite paperwork having been submitted to the EFL. Notwithstanding the usual comments on here regarding NDAs, if nothing else it would be good if the exact position could be flushed out at the meeting with the club and shared with fans.
As regards the 'asking price' (or probably more exactly the agreed sale price) it may have been 'agreed' but negotiations may be ongoing on what is included in that 'agreed sale' price; i.e. that title comes without the ex-directors' loans, or even some 'darker' issues over title left over from the 'spivs' era?
We are stuck with this bum nugget forever.
There's plenty to do with the club. Planning for the next transfer window, rebuilding the staff morale and numbers, restarting the training ground project, filling in the potholes etc