If you go over he top slurring somebody, it loses its effect when people see it for what it is. And during an election campagn with all the scrutiny, people will always see it. It isn't my job to advise the Tory press how to lie and damage the credibility of a candidate, but they seem to have over egged the pudding with Corbyn.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
I think this is a reasonable prediction. However don't forget the shy Tories, and Lynton Crosby's skill in seat targeting.
I think this is a very volatile election and many people may vote depending on how they feel on the day. How many youngsters who are inspired to get out and vote could be a factor. I have a feeling that they have a great incentive to go out and vote for Corbyn and this could confound the pollsters again. Predicting politics isn't quite as easy as it used to be.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
That's how I see it too. Also Corbyn stays on, and gets backed by the PLP if they have sense.
Cue Tory landslide!
I'm not so sure he will stay on, assuming he loses. He was elected leader, challenged and re-elected, and would by then have fought a very good but ultimately unsuccessful election campaign.
If it's a close defeat then he can go knowing that a left-wing party (not radically left and his manifesto isn't far left) can form the basis of a future government.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
That's how I see it too. Also Corbyn stays on, and gets backed by the PLP if they have sense.
Cue Tory landslide!
I'm not so sure he will stay on, assuming he loses. He was elected leader, challenged and re-elected, and would by then have fought a very good but ultimately unsuccessful election campaign.
If it's a close defeat then he can go knowing that a left-wing party (not radically left and his manifesto isn't far left) can form the basis of a future government.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
That's how I see it too. Also Corbyn stays on, and gets backed by the PLP if they have sense.
Cue Tory landslide!
I'm not so sure he will stay on, assuming he loses. He was elected leader, challenged and re-elected, and would by then have fought a very good but ultimately unsuccessful election campaign.
If it's a close defeat then he can go knowing that a left-wing party (not radically left and his manifesto isn't far left) can form the basis of a future government.
He will also be 73 at the next election.
I'm almost certain he will stay on. The way the Labour Party elects its leader guarantees that whoever is elected will be left wing. Corbyn is the leader of choice for the left regardless of the outcome of this election. Remember that he was still being lauded by the left when it looked like he would be leading the political version of the charge of the light brigade.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
I think this is a reasonable prediction. However don't forget the shy Tories, and Lynton Crosby's skill in seat targeting.
I think this is a very volatile election and many people may vote depending on how they feel on the day. How many youngsters who are inspired to get out and vote could be a factor. I have a feeling that they have a great incentive to go out and vote for Corbyn and this could confound the pollsters again. Predicting politics isn't quite as easy as it used to be.
Whilst a larger than normal turnout by young people will be marginally helpful to Labour, I think it's a bit of a misnomer to believe it will be a huge swing factor.
Depending upon which polling data you look at, somewhere between a quarter and a third of 18-24 year olds voted Tory in 2015 and a third voted for Brexit in 2016.
Meanwhile a substantial number of young men voted UKIP in 2015 (approx 10%) and whilst I would not anticipate a surge in turnout from this cohort, it's hard to imagine them being entranced by Corbyn's laissez-faire attitude towards immigration enough to consider switching to Labour.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
That's how I see it too. Also Corbyn stays on, and gets backed by the PLP if they have sense.
Cue Tory landslide!
I'm not so sure he will stay on, assuming he loses. He was elected leader, challenged and re-elected, and would by then have fought a very good but ultimately unsuccessful election campaign.
If it's a close defeat then he can go knowing that a left-wing party (not radically left and his manifesto isn't far left) can form the basis of a future government.
Those you listed were because of expenses fraud. The MP who claimed the lowest amount of expenses when all the fiddling was being chased up, and has nearly always claimed the least is Jeremy Corbyn. One part of his Parliamentary history that people don't keep going on about for some reason.
Without expressing an opinion one way or the other on the innocence or guilt of the Conservative candidate for South Thanet he has not wilfully claimed expenses for personal gain like the MPs shown in the above link supplied by @cafcfan .
What MAY have been done in his name is a breach of expense limits for individual candidates under the Representation of Peoples Act. The Party Machine looks after that side of things and the individual candidate will attach a signature as and when required. In other words he (and others) may have committed a technical breach of electoral rules which, whilst still wrong if he has, is not in the same league as shameless snouts in the trough.
In my opinion anyway.
So what you're saying @LenGlover is that he was unaware that bus loads of activists were being brought in and put up in his constituency? ;-)
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
I think this is a reasonable prediction. However don't forget the shy Tories, and Lynton Crosby's skill in seat targeting.
I think this is a very volatile election and many people may vote depending on how they feel on the day. How many youngsters who are inspired to get out and vote could be a factor. I have a feeling that they have a great incentive to go out and vote for Corbyn and this could confound the pollsters again. Predicting politics isn't quite as easy as it used to be.
Whilst a larger than normal turnout by young people will be marginally helpful to Labour, I think it's a bit of a misnomer to believe it will be a huge swing factor.
Depending upon which polling data you look at, somewhere between a quarter and a third of 18-24 year olds voted Tory in 2015 and a third voted for Brexit in 2016.
Meanwhile a substantial number of young men voted UKIP in 2015 (approx 10%) and whilst I would not anticipate a surge in turnout from this cohort, it's hard to imagine them being entranced by Corbyn's laissez-faire attitude towards immigration enough to consider switching to Labour.
You clearly have more confidence in the non-volatility of the election than I do - we shall see. I think immigration is more of an issue for older peope, but even so, the Tory promise to cut but not deliver policy is wearing a bit thin. Most young people know that immigration is driven by economics anyway.
Amazed some polls now showing Labour on 40%, must be one the most meteoric campaign turn arounds in recent U.K. History
A combination of people actually listening to Jezza rather than believing the Mail headlines, and an appallingly bad campaign by May.
The tories will still win, but May is toast.
I think this is a reasonable prediction. However don't forget the shy Tories, and Lynton Crosby's skill in seat targeting.
I think this is a very volatile election and many people may vote depending on how they feel on the day. How many youngsters who are inspired to get out and vote could be a factor. I have a feeling that they have a great incentive to go out and vote for Corbyn and this could confound the pollsters again. Predicting politics isn't quite as easy as it used to be.
Whilst a larger than normal turnout by young people will be marginally helpful to Labour, I think it's a bit of a misnomer to believe it will be a huge swing factor.
Depending upon which polling data you look at, somewhere between a quarter and a third of 18-24 year olds voted Tory in 2015 and a third voted for Brexit in 2016.
Meanwhile a substantial number of young men voted UKIP in 2015 (approx 10%) and whilst I would not anticipate a surge in turnout from this cohort, it's hard to imagine them being entranced by Corbyn's laissez-faire attitude towards immigration enough to consider switching to Labour.
You clearly have more confidence in the non-volatility of the election than I do - we shall see. I think immigration is more of an issue for older peope, but even so, the Tory promise to cut but not deliver policy is wearing a bit thin. Most young people know that immigration is driven by economics anyway.
Obviously one also has to consider where young people live ie. more heavily concentrated in large towns/cities where Labour already secure most of their safe seats from.
However there are some Con/Lab battleground seats which are smaller towns or suburbs of the aforementioned cities eg. Derby North, Croydon Central, Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Chester etc.
My confidence (which I accept may be misplaced) rests upon some combination of the following:
- the country has never shown meaningful support before for a hard Left agenda and in my view is unlikely to do so when unemployment is low and economic growth relatively robust; - polls consistently show a majority of the country believes both immigration and welfare spending are too high (key anchors of Corbyn's manifesto); - the 'shy Tory' polling bias as mentioned various times already; - various other polling biases (eg. Labour wins its seats more comfortably on average than the Tories - ie. its national support is 'too concentrated' for simple national polls to be extrapolated too widely); - the consistently stronger turnout by Tory (older) voters, notwithstanding discussion on young voters above; - when push comes to shove, the true floating Con/Lab floating voters will ultimately on average opt for the devil they know in the privacy of the polling booth.
As mentioned I have my own polling model ongoing and however hard I stress test it, it's nearly impossible for me to get the Tories to earn fewer than 319 seats and realistically fewer than 340-350.
Those you listed were because of expenses fraud. The MP who claimed the lowest amount of expenses when all the fiddling was being chased up, and has nearly always claimed the least is Jeremy Corbyn. One part of his Parliamentary history that people don't keep going on about for some reason.
Without expressing an opinion one way or the other on the innocence or guilt of the Conservative candidate for South Thanet he has not wilfully claimed expenses for personal gain like the MPs shown in the above link supplied by @cafcfan .
What MAY have been done in his name is a breach of expense limits for individual candidates under the Representation of Peoples Act. The Party Machine looks after that side of things and the individual candidate will attach a signature as and when required. In other words he (and others) may have committed a technical breach of electoral rules which, whilst still wrong if he has, is not in the same league as shameless snouts in the trough.
In my opinion anyway.
So what you're saying @LenGlover is that he was unaware that bus loads of activists were being brought in and put up in his constituency? ;-)
I'm not in a position to say anything.
However nationally the Conservatives did appear to have a 'Stop Farage' at all costs agenda in 2015 and I suspect that the reality was that Craig Mackinlay had little or no say in the conduct of his own campaign.
For what it's worth, I expect the Conservatives to win an increased majority, including some seats in Scotland, but not as increased as was expected when May called it
For what it's worth, I expect the Conservatives to win an increased majority, including some seats in Scotland, but not as increased as was expected when May called it
If so, should May resign? She will have led a campaign that has turned people off from start to finish. Do you think she should/will stay in place in those circumstances?
For what it's worth, I expect the Conservatives to win an increased majority, including some seats in Scotland, but not as increased as was expected when May called it
If so, should May resign? She will have led a campaign that has turned people off from start to finish. Do you think she should/will stay in place in those circumstances?
Will completely depend on if the ultimate majority can be spun as a success. Political journalist on LBC radio yesterday was saying that the Tory party rumours were that any majority of thirty or below would signal her end. Between 30 - 50 she would come under pressure and 50 and above would be just about acceptable.
Is May actually going to appear on question time tonight or will she pull out? Then again i'd assume if she has agreed to go on then the entire audience will be tories and she'll only agree to certain questions being asked.
For what it's worth, I expect the Conservatives to win an increased majority, including some seats in Scotland, but not as increased as was expected when May called it
If so, should May resign? She will have led a campaign that has turned people off from start to finish. Do you think she should/will stay in place in those circumstances?
Will completely depend on if the ultimate majority can be spun as a success. Political journalist on LBC radio yesterday was saying that the Tory party rumours were that any majority of thirty or below would signal her end. Between 30 - 50 she would come under pressure and 50 and above would be just about acceptable.
It's extraordinary isn't it? We're voting to elect a government, yet no-one knows who the Prime Minster will be, even if the current one gets an increased majority!
Is May actually going to appear on question time tonight or will she pull out? Then again i'd assume if she has agreed to go on then the entire audience will be tories and she'll only agree to certain questions being asked.
She needs to realise that she is accountable to every single one of us. Even more so in the run up to an election when she wants our votes. I appreciate she cannot do every tv debate but with all due respect, this is what the job entails in the run up to the general election
I genuinely don't think I've ever come across a more aloof party leader/prime minister. Is it because she's shrouded in self doubt, or is it that she genuinely believes that the sound bite strong and stable is sufficient.
Say what you will about Corbyn, he's seems okay to face questions. Hell i'm no fan of Cameron, but he's being made to look worlds apart by May's disintegration over the past 10-14 days.
When she first got elected, as nailed on the wall socialist, I thought some of the sounds eminating from her were slightly encouraging. For example, she talked of redressing the balance of savers (I don't have money to save, but the talk of interest rate rises pleased me from a housing market point of view), and she seemed to show a compassionate side for people referring to her Christian upbringing.
Fast forward 12 months and she has the face of an exscasperated banshee and scorn of the devil reincarnate. It's gotten worse as she's been challenged
Is May actually going to appear on question time tonight or will she pull out? Then again i'd assume if she has agreed to go on then the entire audience will be tories and she'll only agree to certain questions being asked.
She needs to realise that she is accountable to every single one of us. Even more so in the run up to an election when she wants our votes. I appreciate she cannot do every tv debate but with all due respect, this is what the job entails in the run up to the general election
I genuinely don't think I've ever come across a more aloof party leader/prime minister. Is it because she's shrouded in self doubt, or is it that she genuinely believes that the sound bite strong and stable is sufficient.
Say what you will about Corbyn, he's seems okay to face questions. Hell i'm no fan of Cameron, but he's being made to look worlds apart by May's disintegration over the past 10-14 days.
When she first got elected, as nailed on the wall socialist, I thought some of the sounds eminating from her were slightly encouraging. For example, she talked of redressing the balance of savers (I don't have money to save, but the talk of interest rate rises pleased me from a housing market point of view), and she seemed to show a compassionate side for people referring to her Christian upbringing.
Fast forward 12 months and she has the face of an exscasperated banshee and scorn of the devil reincarnate. It's gotten worse as she's been challenged
I think it's fairly obvious now that she's not a people person. She's stiff and uncomfortable when she's not scripted. Its why she sticks to where she feels safe and can stay exactly on message. Her public appearances have been very much staged by her team with little or often no real access to the general public.
Unfortunately for her she's been rumbled by the electorate. Unless she makes a miraculous recovery and delivers what the Tory mandarins expected I can see her stepping down "due to health reasons" long before the Brexit negotiations are concluded.
Those you listed were because of expenses fraud. The MP who claimed the lowest amount of expenses when all the fiddling was being chased up, and has nearly always claimed the least is Jeremy Corbyn. One part of his Parliamentary history that people don't keep going on about for some reason.
Without expressing an opinion one way or the other on the innocence or guilt of the Conservative candidate for South Thanet he has not wilfully claimed expenses for personal gain like the MPs shown in the above link supplied by @cafcfan .
What MAY have been done in his name is a breach of expense limits for individual candidates under the Representation of Peoples Act. The Party Machine looks after that side of things and the individual candidate will attach a signature as and when required. In other words he (and others) may have committed a technical breach of electoral rules which, whilst still wrong if he has, is not in the same league as shameless snouts in the trough.
In my opinion anyway.
But it's not a case of being charged for something done in his name. The offence is knowingly submitting a claim that was against the rules. The bit the CPS has decided is not whether there was something wrong with the claim, but that he - and others - need to answer the charge that they knew it was wrong.
That said, I agree with you that he is innocent until proven guilty. (A point lost on Farage who is suggesting he shouldn't be standing while there are rumours about him. Farage, incidentally, is rumoured to be a "person of interest" in the FBI's investigation of Trump's links with Russia).
Comments
Cue Tory landslide!
However don't forget the shy Tories, and Lynton Crosby's skill in seat targeting.
If it's a close defeat then he can go knowing that a left-wing party (not radically left and his manifesto isn't far left) can form the basis of a future government.
He will also be 73 at the next election.
Depending upon which polling data you look at, somewhere between a quarter and a third of 18-24 year olds voted Tory in 2015 and a third voted for Brexit in 2016.
Meanwhile a substantial number of young men voted UKIP in 2015 (approx 10%) and whilst I would not anticipate a surge in turnout from this cohort, it's hard to imagine them being entranced by Corbyn's laissez-faire attitude towards immigration enough to consider switching to Labour.
https://corbynrun.com/
Passed 5 mins waiting for a conference call at work - thanks for that!
However there are some Con/Lab battleground seats which are smaller towns or suburbs of the aforementioned cities eg. Derby North, Croydon Central, Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Chester etc.
My confidence (which I accept may be misplaced) rests upon some combination of the following:
- the country has never shown meaningful support before for a hard Left agenda and in my view is unlikely to do so when unemployment is low and economic growth relatively robust;
- polls consistently show a majority of the country believes both immigration and welfare spending are too high (key anchors of Corbyn's manifesto);
- the 'shy Tory' polling bias as mentioned various times already;
- various other polling biases (eg. Labour wins its seats more comfortably on average than the Tories - ie. its national support is 'too concentrated' for simple national polls to be extrapolated too widely);
- the consistently stronger turnout by Tory (older) voters, notwithstanding discussion on young voters above;
- when push comes to shove, the true floating Con/Lab floating voters will ultimately on average opt for the devil they know in the privacy of the polling booth.
As mentioned I have my own polling model ongoing and however hard I stress test it, it's nearly impossible for me to get the Tories to earn fewer than 319 seats and realistically fewer than 340-350.
However nationally the Conservatives did appear to have a 'Stop Farage' at all costs agenda in 2015 and I suspect that the reality was that Craig Mackinlay had little or no say in the conduct of his own campaign.
Does anyone have something proper Charlton for Theresa May, Paul Nuttall, Caroline Lucas, Nicola Sturgeon etc?
Note: the only bit I read is the bit about trains
I genuinely don't think I've ever come across a more aloof party leader/prime minister. Is it because she's shrouded in self doubt, or is it that she genuinely believes that the sound bite strong and stable is sufficient.
Say what you will about Corbyn, he's seems okay to face questions. Hell i'm no fan of Cameron, but he's being made to look worlds apart by May's disintegration over the past 10-14 days.
When she first got elected, as nailed on the wall socialist, I thought some of the sounds eminating from her were slightly encouraging. For example, she talked of redressing the balance of savers (I don't have money to save, but the talk of interest rate rises pleased me from a housing market point of view), and she seemed to show a compassionate side for people referring to her Christian upbringing.
Fast forward 12 months and she has the face of an exscasperated banshee and scorn of the devil reincarnate. It's gotten worse as she's been challenged
Unfortunately for her she's been rumbled by the electorate. Unless she makes a miraculous recovery and delivers what the Tory mandarins expected I can see her stepping down "due to health reasons" long before the Brexit negotiations are concluded.
Is Mark Pritchard a poster on CL? Sounds very similar to some other posters who make up crap like this then run away when challenged.
That said, I agree with you that he is innocent until proven guilty. (A point lost on Farage who is suggesting he shouldn't be standing while there are rumours about him. Farage, incidentally, is rumoured to be a "person of interest" in the FBI's investigation of Trump's links with Russia).