Well 2600 posts and i dip my toe back on this thread.
None of the parties speak for me.
I voted Brexit so could never have voted Lib Dem.
I don't want the country bankrupt or run by total incompetents. Corbyn has no idea of how much his stance of Brexit negotiations will mean that the EU will wipe the floor with him, so can't vote Labour.
I hate what is happening to our NHS and the thought of Fox hunting becoming legitimate once more. May seems to have little in the way of a plan and is badly advised, so I can't see myself voting Tory. No change there then.
All the others are irrelevant loons. Perhaps I should have included Lib Dems in this bit too.
I am pleased for those who are so sure of who to put your cross next to.
I think it's a case of finding the least worst party in terms of what's aligned to your views and principles. There will never be a perfect party running the perfect election campaign according to anyone's views. Even those running the campaign will disagree personally with some of the policies.
I don't consider myself aligned to any party. I would never consider getting a party membership. I give any political door knocker from any party a hard time because they all do a lot of wrong in my eyes. I consider them all to be the establishment (despite recent pretences by labour) and none of them would be near power in an ideal situation. But that's the world we live in and so you have to chose the least worst.
I suspect labour will do very well. I wouldnt be surprised if their was a labour minority with the SNP.
According to the bloke who does the modern day equivalent of the BBC swingometer, Labour has to start eating into 8k Tory majorities to get to be the largest party.
Glad we have had a good debate on this thread with Damo, Ibburg & NYAddick amongst others sticking up for the dark side. By contrast check out the HOF site and see 99% of Millwall fans baying for the return of hanging and predominantly UKIP. Maybe I exaggerate a bit!
I caught the Daily Mail yesterday. 13 pages of politics and the only thing they had to offer was smear and lie about Corbyn, Says it all for me that they cannot find a single thing to say to promote 'their' candidate. I hope everyone get's out and votes - I'm off the electoral role as I have lived abroad for too long, but I care a lot for home, and loathe watching Billionaire newspaper magnates try to influence the vote in order to maintain their off shore tax free millions. I saw a few politicians tryng to get into number 10. Theresa May was the most clueless among them. Go Corbyn
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
Waiting to take off in PRG. Expecting a Tory majority of at least 75 seats, because of their successful use of Facebook with ads and messages most of us will never have seen. It's not illegal. and other parties can do it, but I am not sure it is democracy either.
I think you are right about how dangerous this potentially is, especially as online material is not held to the same standard as TV/press. An increase in information and communication, like the internet, should be something to celebrate. Instead, big business has started to learn how use data in the most sinister fashion. Take away net neutrality and you control how most people will consume data and information, much like the press in this country.
This really has been a depressing election, project fear has won the day. Even now, on Election Day, I can't see anyone posting a single positive about the conservatives just how bad the opposition are.
I wouldn't mind if it was just big business and political parties targeting me through social media. What really gets up my nose is all my friends posting hysterical nonsense, bitter and spiteful memes and basically calling anybody who votes Tory a heartless, selfish monster - because obviously Labour voters are better and care more than anyone else in the world, ever.
But they're my friends, so I just bite my lip and don't get into it with them. I'll be glad when it's all over and we can continue to be governed by fools as normal.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
Interesting, sorry if you'd posted that before, I'd not noticed. TBH not as bullish as I thought.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
I saw a very well supported twitter page say he's betting solid money that labour wont reach 200, I found that hard to believe personally, but who knows.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
Despite May being a no show, there being no costings in their manifesto and only offering more cuts to the Police, NHS, to anyone in fact but the rich the Tories will, I predict, get a bigger majority.
And that is because even though Labour had clearer, costed policies and wanted to save the NHS, increase police numbers and cut tuition fees (all things that should be vote winners) they had Corbyn.
He was an electoral liability from the start and most of his MPs knew it which is why they wanted him gone.
Any decent, non- far left, non-Hamas/IRA supporting leader would have had a real chance to damage May, a weak leader with a poor record and only sound bites to offer.
Roll on the new centre left party.
This.
May & the Tory campaign/manifesto has been very poor.
Corbyn & the Labour campaign/manifesto has been very good.
But there is not a chance in hell that I would ever vote for Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell, who I believe have anti British sentiment at times and that is being generous to them.
I know they say they no longer hold their lifelong views and they've changed in the last few years, since ousting the more centre Labour members, but if that is true, why did they oust them ?
I really am in the centre and I may well have voted for a David Milliband/Chuka Umuna type of person.
I would likely be better off under Labour, but I put my country before myself and in these uncertain times, I could never contemplate voting for a party, headed up by people who have expressed anti British sentiment in the past.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
So a 110 seat Conservative majority.
I hope you're wrong - just imagine the damage this current version of the tory party could do with the next five unfettered years in power.
@MuttleyCAFC i am voting for my future and one that will see me alive with a proper anti-terror policing, thats why im voting tories
The same Tories who cut police and security and then boasted that stopping 5 out of 8 attacks this year was a good record and that the police are crying wolf over cuts?
5 more years of Tories is 5 more years of Manchesters, London Bridges, Westminsters etc.
beg to differ pal, whats corbyn soloution - more uncontrolled immigration - cos that will drop the terrorism/crime levels.
If you believe the Tories are going to halt immigration, after 2 elections where they said the same thing and then did nothing about it, then you're beyond help.
Most Tories are stakeholders in businesses reliant on cheap immigrant labour. They will do exactly what they need to do to keep lining their pockets. Also whilst cutting security and police that is making us all less safe (Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Tory cuts to the police are somehow making us more safe but it is definitely untrue).
police is a broad spectrum, correct policing - great, bobbies on the street is very backwards thinking, and what about mr corbyns plans as there so amazing what will happen under him.
Paris had police on the street, hence how they managed to stop an attack instantly.
so there going to have 10,000 armed police overnight are they.
Replacing skilled highly trained essential people is never done overnight and certainly isn't done by cutting the budget and numbers in the first place.
In addition to Police you can add to the Tories shameful list, nurses, doctors, teachers, social workers. All hacked down in numbers and now very difficult to recruit due to the nonsensical cuts to training funding.
It's obvious that the Tories have no intention of investing to correct this disgrace so God alone knows what the state of things in five years will be. How are the Tory media machine going to hoodwink the people then ?
I think the time for gloating has not come yet. What do they say about counting your chickens.
I'm not gloating - I haven't decided who to vote for yet.
Wasn't aimed at you. Was meant at people further up the page who were accusing others of gloating. I was suggesting we should wait until the fat lady sings. Or at least until 5am tomorrow.
@MuttleyCAFC i am voting for my future and one that will see me alive with a proper anti-terror policing, thats why im voting tories
The same Tories who cut police and security and then boasted that stopping 5 out of 8 attacks this year was a good record and that the police are crying wolf over cuts?
5 more years of Tories is 5 more years of Manchesters, London Bridges, Westminsters etc.
beg to differ pal, whats corbyn soloution - more uncontrolled immigration - cos that will drop the terrorism/crime levels.
If you believe the Tories are going to halt immigration, after 2 elections where they said the same thing and then did nothing about it, then you're beyond help.
Most Tories are stakeholders in businesses reliant on cheap immigrant labour. They will do exactly what they need to do to keep lining their pockets. Also whilst cutting security and police that is making us all less safe (Not sure how you came to the conclusion that Tory cuts to the police are somehow making us more safe but it is definitely untrue).
police is a broad spectrum, correct policing - great, bobbies on the street is very backwards thinking, and what about mr corbyns plans as there so amazing what will happen under him.
Paris had police on the street, hence how they managed to stop an attack instantly.
so there going to have 10,000 armed police overnight are they.
Replacing skilled highly trained essential people is never done overnight and certainly isn't done by cutting the budget and numbers in the first place.
In addition to Police you can add to the Tories shameful list, nurses, doctors, teachers, social workers. All hacked down in numbers and now very difficult to recruit due to the nonsensical cuts to training funding.
It's obvious that the Tories have no intention of investing to correct this disgrace so God alone knows what the state of things in five years will be. How are the Tory media machine going to hoodwink the people then ?
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
Interesting, sorry if you'd posted that before, I'd not noticed. TBH not as bullish as I thought.
I hadn't posted it before on here at least....
Obviously any model has probabilistic ranges and I have pitched my final prediction on my interpretation of the likely accuracy of the final polling data - however to summarise a very broad range of outcomes for Tory seats, I'd say:
Outcome 1: polls were VERY wrong but in Labour's favour: 337 Outcome 2: polls were slightly wrong in Labour's favour 363 Outcome 3: polls were slightly wrong in Tory's favour 396 Outcome 4: polls were VERY wrong in Tory's favour 409
I am therefore predicting that the polls were about right overall on average (although the models take into account local nuances and are not a straightforward extrapolation of national polling percentages).
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
So a 110 seat Conservative majority.
I hope you're wrong - just imagine the damage this current version of the tory party could do with the next five unfettered years in power.
if they are so bad why are they going to beat Labour, again?
Despite May being a no show, there being no costings in their manifesto and only offering more cuts to the Police, NHS, to anyone in fact but the rich the Tories will, I predict, get a bigger majority.
And that is because even though Labour had clearer, costed policies and wanted to save the NHS, increase police numbers and cut tuition fees (all things that should be vote winners) they had Corbyn.
He was an electoral liability from the start and most of his MPs knew it which is why they wanted him gone.
Any decent, non- far left, non-Hamas/IRA supporting leader would have had a real chance to damage May, a weak leader with a poor record and only sound bites to offer.
Roll on the new centre left party.
This.
May & the Tory campaign/manifesto has been very poor.
Corbyn & the Labour campaign/manifesto has been very good.
But there is not a chance in hell that I would ever vote for Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell, who I believe have anti British sentiment at times and that is being generous to them.
I know they say they no longer hold their lifelong views and they've changed in the last few years, since ousting the more centre Labour members, but if that is true, why did they oust them ?
I really am in the centre and I may well have voted for a David Milliband/Chuka Umuna type of person.
I would likely be better off under Labour, but I put my country before myself and in these uncertain times, I could never contemplate voting for a party, headed up by people who have expressed anti British sentiment in the past.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
So a 110 seat Conservative majority.
I hope you're wrong - just imagine the damage this current version of the tory party could do with the next five unfettered years in power.
if they are so bad why are they going to beat Labour, again?
I don't think you want to know the answer to that.
@newyorkaddick what is you modelling saying? Correct me if I'm wrong but not seen much in the way of predictions from you the last few days. Fancy sticking your neck out?
My final prediction is/was:
CON 380 (45%) LAB 197 (35%) LIB 3 (8%) GREEN 1 (2%) SNP 47 (4%) UKIP 0 (3%) PC 3 (1%) N.I. 18 OTHER 1
So a 110 seat Conservative majority.
I hope you're wrong - just imagine the damage this current version of the tory party could do with the next five unfettered years in power.
if they are so bad why are they going to beat Labour, again?
Because you can fool all of the people some of the time.....and the main press are Tory supporters.....
Comments
I don't consider myself aligned to any party. I would never consider getting a party membership. I give any political door knocker from any party a hard time because they all do a lot of wrong in my eyes. I consider them all to be the establishment (despite recent pretences by labour) and none of them would be near power in an ideal situation. But that's the world we live in and so you have to chose the least worst.
Meanwhile the Independent's last pre-election poll says Tories still have a ten-point lead and a projected 74-seat majority. independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-tory-win-results-corbyn-theresa-may-a7777781.html
And the FTSE100 is currently slightly up. We shall see I suppose.
I hope everyone get's out and votes - I'm off the electoral role as I have lived abroad for too long, but I care a lot for home, and loathe watching Billionaire newspaper magnates try to influence the vote in order to maintain their off shore tax free millions. I saw a few politicians tryng to get into number 10. Theresa May was the most clueless among them.
Go Corbyn
CON 380 (45%)
LAB 197 (35%)
LIB 3 (8%)
GREEN 1 (2%)
SNP 47 (4%)
UKIP 0 (3%)
PC 3 (1%)
N.I. 18
OTHER 1
I wouldn't mind if it was just big business and political parties targeting me through social media. What really gets up my nose is all my friends posting hysterical nonsense, bitter and spiteful memes and basically calling anybody who votes Tory a heartless, selfish monster - because obviously Labour voters are better and care more than anyone else in the world, ever.
But they're my friends, so I just bite my lip and don't get into it with them. I'll be glad when it's all over and we can continue to be governed by fools as normal.
You have also ignored all the really desperate posts calling Corbyn a disaster or similar. Take off the right wing goggles for once.
Jeremy Corbyn
May & the Tory campaign/manifesto has been very poor.
Corbyn & the Labour campaign/manifesto has been very good.
But there is not a chance in hell that I would ever vote for Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell, who I believe have anti British sentiment at times and that is being generous to them.
I know they say they no longer hold their lifelong views and they've changed in the last few years, since ousting the more centre Labour members, but if that is true, why did they oust them ?
I really am in the centre and I may well have voted for a David Milliband/Chuka Umuna type of person.
I would likely be better off under Labour, but I put my country before myself and in these uncertain times, I could never contemplate voting for a party, headed up by people who have expressed anti British sentiment in the past.
I hope you're wrong - just imagine the damage this current version of the tory party could do with the next five unfettered years in power.
In addition to Police you can add to the Tories shameful list, nurses, doctors, teachers, social workers. All hacked down in numbers and now very difficult to recruit due to the nonsensical cuts to training funding.
It's obvious that the Tories have no intention of investing to correct this disgrace so God alone knows what the state of things in five years will be. How are the Tory media machine going to hoodwink the people then ?
Obviously any model has probabilistic ranges and I have pitched my final prediction on my interpretation of the likely accuracy of the final polling data - however to summarise a very broad range of outcomes for Tory seats, I'd say:
Outcome 1: polls were VERY wrong but in Labour's favour: 337
Outcome 2: polls were slightly wrong in Labour's favour 363
Outcome 3: polls were slightly wrong in Tory's favour 396
Outcome 4: polls were VERY wrong in Tory's favour 409
I am therefore predicting that the polls were about right overall on average (although the models take into account local nuances and are not a straightforward extrapolation of national polling percentages).