I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
I thought most Brexit voters were lied to by the leave campaign and either didn't care because they had another agenda or now accepted that they were lied to and cannot own up to the fact that they were so gullible.
Since Brexit referendum: Pound down 12% GDP growth stagnated Disposable income down Salary growth stagnated
Exports up (due to pound going down), but only represent 28% of GDP, so no idea how that would counteract the overriding downward pull on the rest of the economy. Plus we import a huge number of staple goods, putting further pressure on incomes as everyday essentials increase in price.
Overall unemployment is down (we can all argue about the tricks used to get the numbers down via zero hour contracts, reclassification of long term unemployed, withholding of benefits, etc.), but youth unemployment has risen sharply, and that is a massive concern, not just from the problems directly related to youth unemployment, but it would suggest that the sort of lower paid jobs that younger people entering the workforce would normally fill are being taken by older workers who would normally be moving upwards or retiring (it can't be immigrants taking the jobs or unemployment wouldn't be falling).
These are all indisputable facts, not opinion or spin. So far the government haven't come up with a single policy or idea to tackle these problems. They've pretty much admitted this week that they are completely incapable of handling negotiations with the EU, and they've exasperated the above problems by announcing that the current period of uncertainty will carry on for at least an additional two years.
There is very little to be cheerful about, so by all means attack those who are worried by the above, but don't claim that everything is great and only getting better when almost every fact available directly contradicts that point of view.
I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
I thought most Brexit voters were lied to by the leave campaign and either didn't care because they had another agenda or now accepted that they were lied to and cannot own up to the fact that they were so gullible.
I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
Quote from prior to the referendum: Campaign group Economists for Brexit said the widespread view that Brexit will be bad for the economy in the long term because of bad trade effects and in the short term because of uncertainty was "based on flawed EU-centric models". Campaign co-chairman Patrick Minford said: "The IMF report, like the Treasury's, uses flawed models and makes wrong, deceitful assumptions to project doom and gloom from Brexit whereas with solidly based models and assumptions Brexit gives the UK more growth and better living standards." Mr Minford said the best outcome would be for the UK to use World Trade Organization rules "under which the UK would leave the EU, freed from both Single Market regulations and from free EU movement of people." "Under this option the UK would get rid of EU trade barriers on the rest of the world, so ridding our consumers of a huge burden of EU protectionism of food and manufacturing; consumer prices would fall 8% and GDP would rise 4% in the long term due to the dynamic response of the economy to lower costs."
Nothing about short term losses there, and I don't recall seeing any buses with the idea written on the side? Perhaps it was on the other side, and we only got to see the angle where they mislead people about the NHS?
Raw materials are purchased via Europe - Holland and Germany mostly. I was checking invoices the other day and was shocked just how much the prices have gone up. What do you do for a living?
You are being ripped off mate. They must have seen you coming. I am a procurement director and have seen no cost rises above the exchange rate changes, about 12%. Didn't you challenge the increases?
But you are an ex-pat "procurement director" in Boston MA. Or at least you were about 4 weeks ago, according to your post at the bottom of page one of this thread...
I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
I thought most Brexit voters were lied to by the leave campaign and either didn't care because they had another agenda or now accepted that they were lied to and cannot own up to the fact that they were so gullible.
I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
I thought most Brexit voters were lied to by the leave campaign and either didn't care because they had another agenda or now accepted that they were lied to and cannot own up to the fact that they were so gullible.
I thought most Brexit voters were quite open about the fact that they thought leaving the EU would have a negative affect on the short term economy. Specially the value of the pound
I thought most Brexit voters were lied to by the leave campaign and either didn't care because they had another agenda or now accepted that they were lied to and cannot own up to the fact that they were so gullible.
The exchange rate shifted the day after the vote but nothing else changed last year except one key indicator: the number of EU student applications for our Universities dropped by 5% despite a 15% drop in the exchange rate. Forecasts talked of recession at the time but that didn't happen. Remainers came back and stated "well we haven't left yet".
For those of us looking for real reports and the subsequent commentary from professionals, we don't have long to wait. In a couple of weeks the first release of Q3 GDP growth comes out. And if that is down then people will start reducing their forecasts for the whole of 2017. And for 2018.
Not many on here will be impacted by a small change. But the simple fact is that the next budget is due in November. And if 2017 growth is down, then that screws the start point for 2018 let alone the end point. We are talking about the possibility of billions of tax revenue being missed and that puts the onus on Hammond to either: 1) raise the deficit, 2) cut spending or 3) raise taxes. Or perhaps they sack the messenger which is what The Times is spinning. For it is clear that he is 100% behind staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and he will have access to reports covering the sector by sector impact of a hard Brexit.
Only 1/3 of the country support a hard Brexit. We have not seen reliable models of the short term and long term impact of such a move. But what we are seeing is a reduction in growth. And some noises that certain businesses will relocate to the EU27 in 2018 if there is no certainty and no access to the EU.
It is not for you and I to determine the accuracy of macroeconomic models nor should we have to aggregate the positive and negative news stories. There are analysts within government and business plus senior economists at the Treasury and Bank of England. There are also foreign analysts and economists with the IMF, OECD and foreign banks and credit agencies.
Now if they start reducing our credit rating and warning about loss of tax or exports due to lack of a deal then perhaps we might listen. Actually it doesn't matter whether we listen or not! What matters is whether the government changes course in the light of the evidence or whether it implodes under the strain of trying to reconcile two mutually exclusive options known as "soft Brexit" and "Hard Brexit". And how the politicians play this game of "chicken".
Theresa May bluffing about the ball being in the "EU court" is just a delaying tactic designed to put off the inevitable decision. End of the day it won't take very long to construct a Norway style deal and it won't take long to simply leave everything. But let us be very clear about one thing, there is no time and no appetite from the EU27 to construct a bespoke deal full of creativity and all the other bollox spouted by May and the rest.
The scenario I have backed for a long time is that while Corbyn sits there "strong and stable" with a policy of remaining in the CU and SM to de-risk the situation, there will come a time (perhaps next year) when a group of Tory MPs withdraw their support from the government. This provoked by bad economic news in successive quarters and even worse forecasts. Only yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon made overtures to the Scottish Tories on similar lines.
I for one do not expect anybody to change their mind on the 2016 referendum but I fervently believe that it was the wrong question. The reality is whether people wish to remain or leave the "common market". We were never gong to join the Euro, Schengen nor an "ever closer Union". Current polling suggests a 2/3 majority to stay in the Single Market. The choice is out there: Norway or nowhere.
Obviously May might tack her way to that position but a cursory glance at the Mail, Express and Times tells us that she won't get past the first paragragh of any such announcement. And the Tory Party membership is 80% against the single Market and Customs Union - they might be out of touch with the electorate but they are the ones who work with their MPs.
And returning back to Labour, they don't want to be accused of being unpatriotic by talking of gloom and doom. If things get as bad as they might over the next 12 months then they can simply quote the IMF and OECD country reports and forecasts. They can back the experts in a dispassionate way and suggest that May or whoever is Tory leader simply hand the keys to No.10 across. As above, it is up to 30 or so Tory MPs whether they choose to accelerate this process in the national interest. Or not.
All I hear is moaning that things are going to be really bad and they almost are already from those who lost the vote. Generally those who called it wrong, or big business worried about any change that might affect their cosy cartels.
A lot of opinion out there, very little evidence.
It's more accurate to say that most people are accurately stating the facts regarding our economy and the dwindling number of people who still support Brexit continue to stick their heads in the sand and claim that facts such as 'growth is slowing' (fact, backed up by evidence) or 'poverty is rising' (fact, backed up by evidence) are just opinions.
I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are.
Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise.
This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests.
There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from.
It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives.
I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs.
The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit.
All I hear is moaning that things are going to be really bad and they almost are already from those who lost the vote. Generally those who called it wrong, or big business worried about any change that might affect their cosy cartels.
A lot of opinion out there, very little evidence.
It's more accurate to say that most people are accurately stating the facts regarding our economy and the dwindling number of people who still support Brexit continue to stick their heads in the sand and claim that facts such as 'growth is slowing' (fact, backed up by evidence) or 'poverty is rising' (fact, backed up by evidence) are just opinions.
I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are.
Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise.
This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests.
There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from.
It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives.
I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs.
The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit.
No, not having that. I have not been back over the whole thread, but I cannot recall anyone at all saying that the EU is all good. Again, a Brexit supporter pretending others have said something they have not, in order to mount a defence against something that never happened in the first place. Why continue to do this if the leave argument is so strong?
Yes indeed good for exports and bad for imports, what is not to like? and hopefully also hit the housing market too, to open up opportunity for the younger generation and reduce the property values of multiple home owners and foreign investors.
The only positive I can see from brexit from a personal perspective is being able to ban/severely limit non-uk nationals buying property in the U.K. and would have to prove residence if they wanted to buy here
Yes indeed good for exports and bad for imports, what is not to like? and hopefully also hit the housing market too, to open up opportunity for the younger generation and reduce the property values of multiple home owners and foreign investors.
The only positive I can see from brexit from a personal perspective is being able to ban/severely limit non-uk nationals buying property in the U.K. and would have to prove residence if they wanted to buy here
But most of the people HM government seem to want to entice to buy the most expensive real estate are non EU nationals, so they could already prevent that, but they don't want to...
Yes indeed good for exports and bad for imports, what is not to like? and hopefully also hit the housing market too, to open up opportunity for the younger generation and reduce the property values of multiple home owners and foreign investors.
The only positive I can see from brexit from a personal perspective is being able to ban/severely limit non-uk nationals buying property in the U.K. and would have to prove residence if they wanted to buy here
There's nothing stopping the government changing house buying laws right now, they just don't want to. Of course, the EU provides a useful bogeyman whenever the government of the day (of any political persuasion) either doesn't want to do something the electorate wants, or does want to do something unpopular.
All I hear is moaning that things are going to be really bad and they almost are already from those who lost the vote. Generally those who called it wrong, or big business worried about any change that might affect their cosy cartels.
A lot of opinion out there, very little evidence.
It's more accurate to say that most people are accurately stating the facts regarding our economy and the dwindling number of people who still support Brexit continue to stick their heads in the sand and claim that facts such as 'growth is slowing' (fact, backed up by evidence) or 'poverty is rising' (fact, backed up by evidence) are just opinions.
I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are.
Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise.
This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests.
There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from.
It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives.
I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs.
The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit.
No, not having that. I have not been back over the whole thread, but I cannot recall anyone at all saying that the EU is all good. Again, a Brexit supporter pretending others have said something they have not, in order to mount a defence against something that never happened in the first place. Why continue to do this if the leave argument is so strong?
Where have I said anything about quoting what Remainers said about how good is the EU? I described the impression given off by their reaction when confronted with the suggestion that the EU has some bad bits, i didn't say Remainers argue the EU is perfect.
Of course Remainers admit there are flaws, even if they don't specify them, but it's more likely Remainers will rubbish the credibility of the person criticising the EU than want to admit the flaw is of any importance. Flaws it seems are not a problem to Remain voters, they should not form part of the argument in favour of Brexit because we just change the EU if we don't like it, and anyway we've got loads of UK system flaws to sort out first.
From the Torygraph. Jack Maidment, political correspondent 4 SEPTEMBER 2017 • 12:42PM Britain wants to hold non-stop negotiations with the European Union to try and break the deadlock over the Brexit divorce bill.
Downing Street said on Monday that the Government is “ready to intensify negotiations” with Brussels and rip up the existing timetable which sees talks taking place one week in every four.
May I look at one of the flaws in the EU. Cumbersome 'democracy'. The system of firstly electing a national government, and then those governments appointing commissioners is a bit remote and might be improved if MEP's had a bigger say. Another flaw is allowing anachronistic Monarchies to exert any influence at all on EU sovereignty, in the future there may be ways of detaching EU machinations from any system that allows any kind of 'blue blood' influence.
Raw materials are purchased via Europe - Holland and Germany mostly. I was checking invoices the other day and was shocked just how much the prices have gone up. What do you do for a living?
You are being ripped off mate. They must have seen you coming. I am a procurement director and have seen no cost rises above the exchange rate changes, about 12%. Didn't you challenge the increases?
But you are an ex-pat "procurement director" in Boston MA. Or at least you were about 4 weeks ago, according to your post at the bottom of page one of this thread...
So pr'aps the effect of the Brexit where you are is different?
I was there a few months for a major project, Boston and NYC, hence the Astoria handle, in Queens where I was staying. Back in the UK now. Thanks for your concern..
Raw materials are purchased via Europe - Holland and Germany mostly. I was checking invoices the other day and was shocked just how much the prices have gone up. What do you do for a living?
You are being ripped off mate. They must have seen you coming. I am a procurement director and have seen no cost rises above the exchange rate changes, about 12%. Didn't you challenge the increases?
But you are an ex-pat "procurement director" in Boston MA. Or at least you were about 4 weeks ago, according to your post at the bottom of page one of this thread...
So pr'aps the effect of the Brexit where you are is different?
I was there a few months for a major project, Boston and NYC, hence the Astoria handle, in Queens where I was staying. Back in the UK now. Thanks for your concern..
Stalker!
Jimmy Hill...
So you were not an ex-pat at all then, just a bloke working abroad. I wasn't concerned Walter.
From the Torygraph. Jack Maidment, political correspondent 4 SEPTEMBER 2017 • 12:42PM Britain wants to hold non-stop negotiations with the European Union to try and break the deadlock over the Brexit divorce bill.
Downing Street said on Monday that the Government is “ready to intensify negotiations” with Brussels and rip up the existing timetable which sees talks taking place one week in every four.
Good to see the timescales are starting to dawn on them. For me unravelling 40 years or whatever it is of union in 2 was a tall order in the first place, but never let the arrogance of the Tories try and stop that
All I hear is moaning that things are going to be really bad and they almost are already from those who lost the vote. Generally those who called it wrong, or big business worried about any change that might affect their cosy cartels.
A lot of opinion out there, very little evidence.
It's more accurate to say that most people are accurately stating the facts regarding our economy and the dwindling number of people who still support Brexit continue to stick their heads in the sand and claim that facts such as 'growth is slowing' (fact, backed up by evidence) or 'poverty is rising' (fact, backed up by evidence) are just opinions.
I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are.
Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise.
This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests.
There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from.
It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives.
I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs.
The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit.
No, not having that. I have not been back over the whole thread, but I cannot recall anyone at all saying that the EU is all good. Again, a Brexit supporter pretending others have said something they have not, in order to mount a defence against something that never happened in the first place. Why continue to do this if the leave argument is so strong?
Where have I said anything about quoting what Remainers said about how good is the EU? I described the impression given off by their reaction when confronted with the suggestion that the EU has some bad bits, i didn't say Remainers argue the EU is perfect.
Of course Remainers admit there are flaws, even if they don't specify them, but it's more likely Remainers will rubbish the credibility of the person criticising the EU than want to admit the flaw is of any importance. Flaws it seems are not a problem to Remain voters, they should not form part of the argument in favour of Brexit because we just change the EU if we don't like it, and anyway we've got loads of UK system flaws to sort out first.
I highlighted the claim I was referring to. It's there in black and white. You people...
"I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are."
This sentence makes little to no sense. I think you are trying to say something along the lines of 'Remainers attribute every fact as a negative result of Brexit' and 'Remainers present their opinions regarding the facts as irrefutable'. Neither of which are true in the general sense. Moving on.
"Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise."
Not sure how you worked this one out. If the pound is falling, weakening our import-heavy economy, because people are losing confidence in the UK explicitly because of how the UK has reacted to the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. If investors have reduced confidence in UK businesses explicitly because of the uncertainty caused by the cack-handedness of the UK government in dealing with the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. This isn't me presenting opinion as fact, I read on a daily basis the views of traders, analysts and investment managers who have to state their reasons for their strategies and I am only repeating what their reasons are for their decision to have a dim view of British prospects in the short term.
"This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests."
Again, none of this is true in the general sense. This might be your viewpoint, but this is your opinion and it is also entirely irrelevant.
"There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from."
The deafening silence may be due to the fact Remainers are largely preoccupied with the largely negative news surrounding a post-EU UK. This is not to say Remainers are not also concerned about the future of the EU but it isn't exactly the most pressing concern. It's like worrying about your cholesterol whilst being attacked by a bear; it's important but it is also not exactly the most pressing matter, is it? There is little credibility in claims that the course the EU is currently taking in the short and medium term is going to be bad for the UK, or at least if the UK were to remain in the EU.
"It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives."
I cannot acknowledge this because it isn't true. I certainly have no emotional stake in the EU and I don't really know a single Remain voter who would say they let their emotions dictate their decision to vote Remain.
"I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs."
Considering Yanis Varoufakis supported a Remain vote in the UK Referendum, I'm fairly sure you missed the point of his black box analogy.
"The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit."
So you don't understand the EU or how it works so you just go with your gut and voted Leave, based purely on emotion. Nice of you to admit it. But don't try to make yourself feel better by claiming those who voted Remain were just as ignorant as you.
The funny thing with you Dippy is that every single one of your long, rambling, poorly written diatribes you post in these EU threads are connected by two central themes:
- you accuse everyone you disagree with of presenting opinion as fact - every statement you make is your opinion presented as fact
"I don't think anyone is arguing about "facts" simply the obsession with attributing every "fact' as a product of the prospect for Brexit and Remainers having their own irrefutable opinion on why the facts presented are what they are."
This sentence makes little to no sense. I think you are trying to say something along the lines of 'Remainers attribute every fact as a negative result of Brexit' and 'Remainers present their opinions regarding the facts as irrefutable'. Neither of which are true in the general sense. Moving on.
"Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise."
Not sure how you worked this one out. If the pound is falling, weakening our import-heavy economy, because people are losing confidence in the UK explicitly because of how the UK has reacted to the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. If investors have reduced confidence in UK businesses explicitly because of the uncertainty caused by the cack-handedness of the UK government in dealing with the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. This isn't me presenting opinion as fact, I read on a daily basis the views of traders, analysts and investment managers who have to state their reasons for their strategies and I am only repeating what their reasons are for their decision to have a dim view of British prospects in the short term.
"This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests."
Again, none of this is true in the general sense. This might be your viewpoint, but this is your opinion and it is also entirely irrelevant.
"There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from."
The deafening silence may be due to the fact Remainers are largely preoccupied with the largely negative news surrounding a post-EU UK. This is not to say Remainers are not also concerned about the future of the EU but it isn't exactly the most pressing concern. It's like worrying about your cholesterol whilst being attacked by a bear; it's important but it is also not exactly the most pressing matter, is it? There is little credibility in claims that the course the EU is currently taking in the short and medium term is going to be bad for the UK, or at least if the UK were to remain in the EU.
"It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives."
I cannot acknowledge this because it isn't true. I certainly have no emotional stake in the EU and I don't really know a single Remain voter who would say they let their emotions dictate their decision to vote Remain.
"I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs."
Considering Yanis Varoufakis supported a Remain vote in the UK Referendum, I'm fairly sure you missed the point of his black box analogy.
"The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit."
So you don't understand the EU or how it works so you just go with your gut and voted Leave, based purely on emotion. Nice of you to admit it. But don't try to make yourself feel better by claiming those who voted Remain were just as ignorant as you.
The funny thing with you Dippy is that every single one of your long, rambling, poorly written diatribes you post in these EU threads are connected by two central themes:
- you accuse everyone you disagree with of presenting opinion as fact - every statement you make is your opinion presented as fact
Extremely embarrassed by my poor post which @Fiiish, the resident expert on critiques of long, rambling, poorly written diatribes, has cleverly exposed as so much drivel.
Are we still going round in the same bullshit circles that began revolving around back prior even to June 2016 where people just keep insulting one another for no other reason than they can.
All the while nobody actually makes any REAL effort to change anything because they're too scared to be wrong themselves.
Comments
Pound down 12%
GDP growth stagnated
Disposable income down
Salary growth stagnated
Exports up (due to pound going down), but only represent 28% of GDP, so no idea how that would counteract the overriding downward pull on the rest of the economy. Plus we import a huge number of staple goods, putting further pressure on incomes as everyday essentials increase in price.
Overall unemployment is down (we can all argue about the tricks used to get the numbers down via zero hour contracts, reclassification of long term unemployed, withholding of benefits, etc.), but youth unemployment has risen sharply, and that is a massive concern, not just from the problems directly related to youth unemployment, but it would suggest that the sort of lower paid jobs that younger people entering the workforce would normally fill are being taken by older workers who would normally be moving upwards or retiring (it can't be immigrants taking the jobs or unemployment wouldn't be falling).
These are all indisputable facts, not opinion or spin. So far the government haven't come up with a single policy or idea to tackle these problems. They've pretty much admitted this week that they are completely incapable of handling negotiations with the EU, and they've exasperated the above problems by announcing that the current period of uncertainty will carry on for at least an additional two years.
There is very little to be cheerful about, so by all means attack those who are worried by the above, but don't claim that everything is great and only getting better when almost every fact available directly contradicts that point of view.
Campaign co-chairman Patrick Minford said: "The IMF report, like the Treasury's, uses flawed models and makes wrong, deceitful assumptions to project doom and gloom from Brexit whereas with solidly based models and assumptions Brexit gives the UK more growth and better living standards." Mr Minford said the best outcome would be for the UK to use World Trade Organization rules "under which the UK would leave the EU, freed from both Single Market regulations and from free EU movement of people."
"Under this option the UK would get rid of EU trade barriers on the rest of the world, so ridding our consumers of a huge burden of EU protectionism of food and manufacturing; consumer prices would fall 8% and GDP would rise 4% in the long term due to the dynamic response of the economy to lower costs."
Nothing about short term losses there, and I don't recall seeing any buses with the idea written on the side? Perhaps it was on the other side, and we only got to see the angle where they mislead people about the NHS?
http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/79126/match-thread-charlton-v-wigan-tue-12-sept/p1
So pr'aps the effect of the Brexit where you are is different?
For those of us looking for real reports and the subsequent commentary from professionals, we don't have long to wait. In a couple of weeks the first release of Q3 GDP growth comes out. And if that is down then people will start reducing their forecasts for the whole of 2017. And for 2018.
Not many on here will be impacted by a small change. But the simple fact is that the next budget is due in November. And if 2017 growth is down, then that screws the start point for 2018 let alone the end point. We are talking about the possibility of billions of tax revenue being missed and that puts the onus on Hammond to either:
1) raise the deficit,
2) cut spending or
3) raise taxes.
Or perhaps they sack the messenger which is what The Times is spinning. For it is clear that he is 100% behind staying in the Single Market and Customs Union and he will have access to reports covering the sector by sector impact of a hard Brexit.
Only 1/3 of the country support a hard Brexit. We have not seen reliable models of the short term and long term impact of such a move. But what we are seeing is a reduction in growth. And some noises that certain businesses will relocate to the EU27 in 2018 if there is no certainty and no access to the EU.
It is not for you and I to determine the accuracy of macroeconomic models nor should we have to aggregate the positive and negative news stories. There are analysts within government and business plus senior economists at the Treasury and Bank of England. There are also foreign analysts and economists with the IMF, OECD and foreign banks and credit agencies.
Now if they start reducing our credit rating and warning about loss of tax or exports due to lack of a deal then perhaps we might listen. Actually it doesn't matter whether we listen or not! What matters is whether the government changes course in the light of the evidence or whether it implodes under the strain of trying to reconcile two mutually exclusive options known as "soft Brexit" and "Hard Brexit". And how the politicians play this game of "chicken".
Theresa May bluffing about the ball being in the "EU court" is just a delaying tactic designed to put off the inevitable decision. End of the day it won't take very long to construct a Norway style deal and it won't take long to simply leave everything. But let us be very clear about one thing, there is no time and no appetite from the EU27 to construct a bespoke deal full of creativity and all the other bollox spouted by May and the rest.
The scenario I have backed for a long time is that while Corbyn sits there "strong and stable" with a policy of remaining in the CU and SM to de-risk the situation, there will come a time (perhaps next year) when a group of Tory MPs withdraw their support from the government. This provoked by bad economic news in successive quarters and even worse forecasts. Only yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon made overtures to the Scottish Tories on similar lines.
I for one do not expect anybody to change their mind on the 2016 referendum but I fervently believe that it was the wrong question. The reality is whether people wish to remain or leave the "common market". We were never gong to join the Euro, Schengen nor an "ever closer Union". Current polling suggests a 2/3 majority to stay in the Single Market. The choice is out there: Norway or nowhere.
Obviously May might tack her way to that position but a cursory glance at the Mail, Express and Times tells us that she won't get past the first paragragh of any such announcement. And the Tory Party membership is 80% against the single Market and Customs Union - they might be out of touch with the electorate but they are the ones who work with their MPs.
And returning back to Labour, they don't want to be accused of being unpatriotic by talking of gloom and doom. If things get as bad as they might over the next 12 months then they can simply quote the IMF and OECD country reports and forecasts. They can back the experts in a dispassionate way and suggest that May or whoever is Tory leader simply hand the keys to No.10 across. As above, it is up to 30 or so Tory MPs whether they choose to accelerate this process in the national interest. Or not.
Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise.
This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests.
There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from.
It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives.
I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs.
The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit.
Of course Remainers admit there are flaws, even if they don't specify them, but it's more likely Remainers will rubbish the credibility of the person criticising the EU than want to admit the flaw is of any importance. Flaws it seems are not a problem to Remain voters, they should not form part of the argument in favour of Brexit because we just change the EU if we don't like it, and anyway we've got loads of UK system flaws to sort out first.
Jack Maidment, political correspondent
4 SEPTEMBER 2017 • 12:42PM
Britain wants to hold non-stop negotiations with the European Union to try and break the deadlock over the Brexit divorce bill.
Downing Street said on Monday that the Government is “ready to intensify negotiations” with Brussels and rip up the existing timetable which sees talks taking place one week in every four.
Another flaw is allowing anachronistic Monarchies to exert any influence at all on EU sovereignty, in the future there may be ways of detaching EU machinations from any system that allows any kind of 'blue blood' influence.
Stalker!
So you were not an ex-pat at all then, just a bloke working abroad. I wasn't concerned Walter.
This sentence makes little to no sense. I think you are trying to say something along the lines of 'Remainers attribute every fact as a negative result of Brexit' and 'Remainers present their opinions regarding the facts as irrefutable'. Neither of which are true in the general sense. Moving on.
"Until we have achieved Brexit, your facts are irrelevant to the assessment of its success or otherwise."
Not sure how you worked this one out. If the pound is falling, weakening our import-heavy economy, because people are losing confidence in the UK explicitly because of how the UK has reacted to the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. If investors have reduced confidence in UK businesses explicitly because of the uncertainty caused by the cack-handedness of the UK government in dealing with the referendum result, then that is both a fact and relevant. This isn't me presenting opinion as fact, I read on a daily basis the views of traders, analysts and investment managers who have to state their reasons for their strategies and I am only repeating what their reasons are for their decision to have a dim view of British prospects in the short term.
"This "joke" thread was supposed to be about the impact of the EU on Britain. A subject which, as the pointless direction of this thread indicates, seems to hold no interest for Remain voters. The future direction of the EU seems of no importance and irrelevant to any consideration of the Brexit vote. From what has been expressed it seems any suggestion the EU might not be all good is dismissed as the rantings of uninformed little Englanders, stupid people who don't understand how the EU works, how we don't understand how EU democracy works, that the UK is already fully in control and where we can't influence outcome it will be because it's in our best interests."
Again, none of this is true in the general sense. This might be your viewpoint, but this is your opinion and it is also entirely irrelevant.
"There is a deafening silence from the Remain camp on the future of the EU, its impact on Britain depending on how the EU continues to develop and expand. Staying on a train which has an imprecise destination and the other travellers might change it's course is the intelligent option, jumping off to continue a journey you control is the fool's choice, because you don't know where you might be starting from."
The deafening silence may be due to the fact Remainers are largely preoccupied with the largely negative news surrounding a post-EU UK. This is not to say Remainers are not also concerned about the future of the EU but it isn't exactly the most pressing concern. It's like worrying about your cholesterol whilst being attacked by a bear; it's important but it is also not exactly the most pressing matter, is it? There is little credibility in claims that the course the EU is currently taking in the short and medium term is going to be bad for the UK, or at least if the UK were to remain in the EU.
"It would be good if we could call a truce and acknowledge that the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is largely determined by emotions, not a superior insight into the future or ability to analyse facts. There is a mix of positive and negative outcomes whatever direction we take, but people will form different views on what will be right or wrong based on entirely on the relative weight given to the perceived negatives and positives."
I cannot acknowledge this because it isn't true. I certainly have no emotional stake in the EU and I don't really know a single Remain voter who would say they let their emotions dictate their decision to vote Remain.
"I like the views in Yanis Varoufakis book - We can only control the inputs into the inter connected network of black boxes that run our markets and economies, and not even those who built the black boxes know how they collectively work. Inputs are controlled by the few and unconsciously designed to support the interests of the few controlling the black boxes, rather than the success of the outputs. It is desirable to break down the network of black boxes controlled by a few, so that there is transparency, better democratic control and the greater ability to correlate inputs and outputs."
Considering Yanis Varoufakis supported a Remain vote in the UK Referendum, I'm fairly sure you missed the point of his black box analogy.
"The EU is just a big black box looking to get even bigger, it's subject to random opaque control likely to be ever more concentrated in a few and I don't trust it. It's an emotion, but I don't need any other justification for voting Brexit."
So you don't understand the EU or how it works so you just go with your gut and voted Leave, based purely on emotion. Nice of you to admit it. But don't try to make yourself feel better by claiming those who voted Remain were just as ignorant as you.
The funny thing with you Dippy is that every single one of your long, rambling, poorly written diatribes you post in these EU threads are connected by two central themes:
- you accuse everyone you disagree with of presenting opinion as fact
- every statement you make is your opinion presented as fact
All the while nobody actually makes any REAL effort to change anything because they're too scared to be wrong themselves.