Actually if you spend a long time clicking through that map it indicates, depressingly, that a second referendum would still be a very close run thing. There are places where the Leave vote has increased. Plus, at 15,000 respondents divided by 632 constituencies that works out at about only 24 people asked per constituency.
Both fair points. Nevertheless, the change in Eltham mirrors exactly the change measured by YouGov's tracking research over time ( ie the same question repeated at regular intervals. I agree that right now opinion change is far too small to be regarded as decisive. But every day brings a new exposure to the madness of Brexit, and I would expect the gap to widen between now and Mar 19.
Out of interest do you recall which places showed the Leave vote strengthening?
One of the Southampton constituencies was a leave vote increase @PragueAddick
Edit: A few round there, Winchester, Meon Valley, Chichester.
Actually if you spend a long time clicking through that map it indicates, depressingly, that a second referendum would still be a very close run thing. There are places where the Leave vote has increased. Plus, at 15,000 respondents divided by 632 constituencies that works out at about only 24 people asked per constituency.
Both fair points. Nevertheless, the change in Eltham mirrors exactly the change measured by YouGov's tracking research over time ( ie the same question repeated at regular intervals. I agree that right now opinion change is far too small to be regarded as decisive. But every day brings a new exposure to the madness of Brexit, and I would expect the gap to widen between now and Mar 19.
Out of interest do you recall which places showed the Leave vote strengthening?
Of the top of my head, Chichester saw the Leave vote strength (only by a fraction of a percent, so probably well within the margin of error for the sample size, so realistically you could say that nobody has changed their minds)
The Gov’t have started publishing the no-deal advice, some pretty horrifying stuff in there and I would imagine this is the most sugar coated version too.
Actually if you spend a long time clicking through that map it indicates, depressingly, that a second referendum would still be a very close run thing. There are places where the Leave vote has increased. Plus, at 15,000 respondents divided by 632 constituencies that works out at about only 24 people asked per constituency.
Both fair points. Nevertheless, the change in Eltham mirrors exactly the change measured by YouGov's tracking research over time ( ie the same question repeated at regular intervals. I agree that right now opinion change is far too small to be regarded as decisive. But every day brings a new exposure to the madness of Brexit, and I would expect the gap to widen between now and Mar 19.
Out of interest do you recall which places showed the Leave vote strengthening?
Other people have already named some that I saw, but in addition I happened to fall upon Wealden, Skipton & Ripon, Northamptonshire South, Somerset & Frome, Arundel and South Downs. Hearteningly where there is a big swing it is almost always towards Remain. What bothers me most, though, is the size of the sample in each constituency - just how representative can we believe the responses to be? Nonetheless the arrow is pointing in the right direction. But who's going to have the balls to call a second referendum even if there were strong signs that the "will of the people" had changed significantly?
Actually if you spend a long time clicking through that map it indicates, depressingly, that a second referendum would still be a very close run thing. There are places where the Leave vote has increased. Plus, at 15,000 respondents divided by 632 constituencies that works out at about only 24 people asked per constituency.
Both fair points. Nevertheless, the change in Eltham mirrors exactly the change measured by YouGov's tracking research over time ( ie the same question repeated at regular intervals. I agree that right now opinion change is far too small to be regarded as decisive. But every day brings a new exposure to the madness of Brexit, and I would expect the gap to widen between now and Mar 19.
Out of interest do you recall which places showed the Leave vote strengthening?
Other people have already named some that I saw, but in addition I happened to fall upon Wealden, Skipton & Ripon, Northamptonshire South, Somerset & Frome, Arundel and South Downs. Hearteningly where there is a big swing it is almost always towards Remain. What bothers me most, though, is the size of the sample in each constituency - just how representative can we believe the responses to be? Nonetheless the arrow is pointing in the right direction. But who's going to have the balls to call a second referendum even if there were strong signs that the "will of the people" had changed significantly?
The guys from Best for Britain were talking about the method, and it's the same methodology that was used by YouGov when they released the poll before the General Election which would show the Tories having their majority slashed, and places like Kensington and Canterbury going to the Labour Party.
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Ta. He doesn't actually say what you say he has said, does he.
He evaded the question but stated what labour would do if handling the negotiations. I watched the whole clip twice and never heard the words you attribute to him. If I missed it could you show me exactly where he said it. My understanding of what he was saying was that Labour would negotiate a better deal than the Tories, which as the Tories may be heading for a 'no deal'might not be difficult.
Did you have a chance to think about my question to you? As a reminder, the question was what you would propose to do about the border in Ireland, were we to follow your suggestion to "simply leave".
I'm guessing it must be a really good solution. Because if we "simply leave", the economy would be reduce by somewhere between 5% and more than 10%.
So what's the solution? And does it go anywhere near mitigating the catastroballsup that a massive GDP hit would cause?
(Maybe we make up the difference by commandeering the pensions that couldn't be paid to British people living abroad? Or by a tax on the increased credit card fees we will all have to pay? Or..?)
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Ta. He doesn't actually say what you say he has said, does he.
He evaded the question but stated what labour would do if handling the negotiations. I watched the whole clip twice and never heard the words you attribute to him. If I missed it could you show me exactly where he said it. My understanding of what he was saying was that Labour would negotiate a better deal than the Tories, which as the Tories may be heading for a 'no deal'might not be difficult.
Strangely the link still works on my iPad. He made the comment when asked about the interview shown in the clip where he was asked six times if the the UK would be better outside the EU, but, as you mention, he evades answering the question each time.
As I stated above, scroll a few paragraphs up. Not sure why link doesn't work on my pixel 2 phone.
Those new polls are interesting but it's highly unlikely that there will be another straight leave:remain vote before next March 29th. For that would be politically explosive and nobody with sufficient support is calling for that. However the polls are clearly shifting and they are going to shift some more as the details of the impact of No Deal emerge.
And later this year we will have the framework of an outline Brexit deal as per what the EU allows and not what Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Davis pretend.
There simply is no economic upside of leaving the EU. On an anecdotal note, I spoke with a recruiter in Financial Services based in Dublin yesterday and they are booming plus extremely short of qualified candidates, such is the surge in expansion as a result of Brexit. 10% of City based Insurance contracts are EU related and no participant will allow for business interuption.
The third part of the equation (on top of options and actual changes) is the forthcoming conference season. The ground in both major parties is shifting such that it is possible that a "people's vote" will be authorised before March 29th. Not only does this appear democratic but it also gives both May and Parliament the ability to pass the question back to the electorate, albeit a more sophisticated three way question of remain, agree the deal or no deal. Of course May might try to squeeze an EU agreement straight through Parliament with the support of the hard Brexiteers who just want us to leave.
But then she and the Tories are 100% responsible for the outcome so that would be a very brave move.
So whilst these polls are very informative, the outcome is dependent upon other variables: will Labour shift to support a "peoples vote" and how will the Tory Party play out between now and Christmas. End of the day 99.9% of an agreed outcome lies with M.Barnier and the EU27. The Tories either don't understand that they cannot negotiate direct with Merkel, Macron and others or they simply choose to play dumb and thus allow the clock to run down. The result (which some predicted last year) is that the money markets and analysts will downgrade the UK economy and highlight the risks. This in turn will fuel the polls and perhaps shift the agenda?
Not perfect but this is how our democracy actually works. The polls indicate a trend and they might embolden some to shift the agenda or even attempt to overturn the table and start again?! The pro remain lobby groups will continue to push their cause - we will see if they have an impact at conference. And after that we move into extra time for there looks to be absolutely no chance of an agreed deal in October.
At that point, the polls and the drive for a people's vote might make a difference?
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Ta. He doesn't actually say what you say he has said, does he.
He evaded the question but stated what labour would do if handling the negotiations. I watched the whole clip twice and never heard the words you attribute to him. If I missed it could you show me exactly where he said it. My understanding of what he was saying was that Labour would negotiate a better deal than the Tories, which as the Tories may be heading for a 'no deal'might not be difficult.
Strangely the link still works on my iPad. He made the comment when asked about the interview shown in the clip where he was asked six times if the the UK would be better outside the EU, but, as you mention, he evades answering the question each time.
As I stated above, scroll a few paragraphs up. Not sure why link doesn't work on my pixel 2 phone.
Stopped working for me as well. But I see the bit you mean, it would be good to see some context as it is just a 'flat' report without even speech marks.
Daily Express says all will be okay and that should be good enough for all of us. Dominic Raab was superb yesterday and destroyed all the Project Fear arguments - everything will be okay.
Given that much law is based on John Stuart Mill's principle that people are free to do as they please on the proviso that it doesn't harm others. And given that we know that Brexit will be harmful to the majority. Is there not some way that it would be illegal for the government to pursue Brexit knowing the harm that it would cause? With most government actions there are winners and losers and it can be argued that where individuals are harmed it is for the greater good. What is abundantly clear with Brexit is that there is no greater good and therefore no mitigation for the harm that will be done.
Given that much law is based on John Stuart Mill's principle that people are free to do as they please on the proviso that it doesn't harm others. And given that we know that Brexit will be harmful to the majority. Is there not some way that it would be illegal for the government to pursue Brexit knowing the harm that it would cause? With most government actions there are winners and losers and it can be argued that where individuals are harmed it is for the greater good. What is abundantly clear with Brexit is that there is no greater good and therefore no mitigation for the harm that will be done.
I'll hold the traditionalist legal philosophers back while you make a run for it....
I'm not sure that, in the English, Welsh and Irish Common Law system, too many would agree, with your laws from time immemorial and all that.
Corbyn thinks the U.K. would be better off outside the EU if Labour was negotiating Brexit! Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He truly is a simpleton who thinks all Labour voters are similarly afflicted and seems oblivious to the fact that the vast majority of Labour voters strongly oppose Brexit.
Because Corbyn has always been anti-EU
And Corbynistas can't even adopt the internationally accepted definition of anti-Semitism without falling out and exposing their racism so no chance of negotiating with the EU.
Given that much law is based on John Stuart Mill's principle that people are free to do as they please on the proviso that it doesn't harm others. And given that we know that Brexit will be harmful to the majority. Is there not some way that it would be illegal for the government to pursue Brexit knowing the harm that it would cause? With most government actions there are winners and losers and it can be argued that where individuals are harmed it is for the greater good. What is abundantly clear with Brexit is that there is no greater good and therefore no mitigation for the harm that will be done.
"and given that we KNOW that brexit will be harmful to the majority..."
do we ?? for certain ?? If so, then please can you tell me the numbers for tomorrows lottery as I wouldn't mind a winning ticket.
So, was anyone else amused/baffled by yesterday's approach to the Irish border?
While opposing the EU's proposed version of the backstop, allowing Northern Ireland alone to remain in those elements of the EU structures required to avoid any change to the status quo (including cross border trading) required under the GFA, because no UK Government could agree to such a thing (annexation or land grab, or some such, by the EU), it's perfectly okay to abdicate any and all responsibility for the Northern Ireland economy (and any pretence of interest in the welfare of people here) to the Irish Government.
If I was in the Irish Government, I'd happily give NI businesses simple advice on how to deal with the change that will follow Brexit, and that's relocate to Monaghan, Cavan, Louth, Donegal, Leitrim or Sligo.
It's almost as if the UK approach to difficult questions hasn't been thought out properly.
So, was anyone else amused/baffled by yesterday's approach to the Irish border?
While opposing the EU's proposed version of the backstop, allowing Northern Ireland alone to remain in those elements of the EU structures required to avoid any change to the status quo (including cross border trading) required under the GFA, because no UK Government could agree to such a thing (annexation or land grab, or some such, by the EU), it's perfectly okay to abdicate any and all responsibility for the Northern Ireland economy (and any pretence of interest in the welfare of people here) to the Irish Government.
If I was in the Irish Government, I'd happily give NI businesses simple advice on how to deal with the change that will follow Brexit, and that's relocate to Monaghan, Cavan, Louth, Donegal, Leitrim or Sligo.
It's almost as if the UK approach to difficult questions hasn't been thought out properly.
Put simply the UK government advise Northern Irish businesses to ask the Republic of Ireland what to do in the case of a no deal brexit.
Bad enough.
However not a word about a solution to the border issue in Ireland in terms of the free movement of people, not even advice to ask the government of Bolivia what to do.
People actually vote for this stuff.
This is the plan brexit voters had before they voted naturally.
Comments
Edit: A few round there, Winchester, Meon Valley, Chichester.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal
The methodology is solid, and proven
Thank you
All looking good then
He evaded the question but stated what labour would do if handling the negotiations. I watched the whole clip twice and never heard the words you attribute to him. If I missed it could you show me exactly where he said it. My understanding of what he was saying was that Labour would negotiate a better deal than the Tories, which as the Tories may be heading for a 'no deal'might not be difficult.
Did you have a chance to think about my question to you? As a reminder, the question was what you would propose to do about the border in Ireland, were we to follow your suggestion to "simply leave".
I'm guessing it must be a really good solution. Because if we "simply leave", the economy would be reduce by somewhere between 5% and more than 10%.
So what's the solution? And does it go anywhere near mitigating the catastroballsup that a massive GDP hit would cause?
(Maybe we make up the difference by commandeering the pensions that couldn't be paid to British people living abroad? Or by a tax on the increased credit card fees we will all have to pay? Or..?)
As I stated above, scroll a few paragraphs up. Not sure why link doesn't work on my pixel 2 phone.
And later this year we will have the framework of an outline Brexit deal as per what the EU allows and not what Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Davis pretend.
There simply is no economic upside of leaving the EU. On an anecdotal note, I spoke with a recruiter in Financial Services based in Dublin yesterday and they are booming plus extremely short of qualified candidates, such is the surge in expansion as a result of Brexit. 10% of City based Insurance contracts are EU related and no participant will allow for business interuption.
The third part of the equation (on top of options and actual changes) is the forthcoming conference season. The ground in both major parties is shifting such that it is possible that a "people's vote" will be authorised before March 29th. Not only does this appear democratic but it also gives both May and Parliament the ability to pass the question back to the electorate, albeit a more sophisticated three way question of remain, agree the deal or no deal. Of course May might try to squeeze an EU agreement straight through Parliament with the support of the hard Brexiteers who just want us to leave.
But then she and the Tories are 100% responsible for the outcome so that would be a very brave move.
So whilst these polls are very informative, the outcome is dependent upon other variables: will Labour shift to support a "peoples vote" and how will the Tory Party play out between now and Christmas. End of the day 99.9% of an agreed outcome lies with M.Barnier and the EU27. The Tories either don't understand that they cannot negotiate direct with Merkel, Macron and others or they simply choose to play dumb and thus allow the clock to run down. The result (which some predicted last year) is that the money markets and analysts will downgrade the UK economy and highlight the risks. This in turn will fuel the polls and perhaps shift the agenda?
Not perfect but this is how our democracy actually works. The polls indicate a trend and they might embolden some to shift the agenda or even attempt to overturn the table and start again?! The pro remain lobby groups will continue to push their cause - we will see if they have an impact at conference. And after that we move into extra time for there looks to be absolutely no chance of an agreed deal in October.
At that point, the polls and the drive for a people's vote might make a difference?
We have a nice flag.
I'm not sure that, in the English, Welsh and Irish Common Law system, too many would agree, with your laws from time immemorial and all that.
Mill was just a 19th Century blow in.
And Corbynistas can't even adopt the internationally accepted definition of anti-Semitism without falling out and exposing their racism so no chance of negotiating with the EU.
do we ?? for certain ?? If so, then please can you tell me the numbers for tomorrows lottery as I wouldn't mind a winning ticket.
While opposing the EU's proposed version of the backstop, allowing Northern Ireland alone to remain in those elements of the EU structures required to avoid any change to the status quo (including cross border trading) required under the GFA, because no UK Government could agree to such a thing (annexation or land grab, or some such, by the EU), it's perfectly okay to abdicate any and all responsibility for the Northern Ireland economy (and any pretence of interest in the welfare of people here) to the Irish Government.
If I was in the Irish Government, I'd happily give NI businesses simple advice on how to deal with the change that will follow Brexit, and that's relocate to Monaghan, Cavan, Louth, Donegal, Leitrim or Sligo.
It's almost as if the UK approach to difficult questions hasn't been thought out properly.
Bad enough.
However not a word about a solution to the border issue in Ireland in terms of the free movement of people, not even advice to ask the government of Bolivia what to do.
People actually vote for this stuff.
This is the plan brexit voters had before they voted naturally.