All these non runners are killing it. I'm starting to lose interest.
1/5 the odds for e/w punters (bar only the munificent Bob) is potentially killing it for me @len90 Got to have the 6th place to make it remotely viable from my perspective but used to have BetVic and some others offer 6 places and 1/4. The good old days.
Elliott seems to think there's enough rain knocking about for Mala Beach to line up. Going to be touch and go for Joe to get in.
10mm of precipitation for Liverpool overnight (which was as expected) has turned going on GN course to GS (Soft places). Possible thunderstorm tomorrow, showers on Thursday but dry Friday and Saturday. Still likely to be GS for the Big One - hopefully sufficient cut for RDT and GP but fine for those wanting a decent surface.
Put in the current Top 40 at best price and came out to 125%, the places at 1/5 odds came to 508%....so if can get best price out there and six places you'll be looking at a fair value bet.
The 1/5 odds thing is getting annoying now, especially on regular weekends. As a guide a simple comparison against the Betfair place market will tell you if you've got a value bet or not.
The five I'm planning on going to war with -
Up For Review Jury Duty General Principle Mall Dini Joe Farrell (if getting in obviously)
Looks like a bit more rain around than originally thought.
Joe Farrell just been smashed on Betfair into 25/26.
Annoying as he's one of the ones I'm waiting for extra places post decs!
Going to be very touch and go if he makes it in, sounds like Elliott going to run all of his. There's a few that might go for Topham (Ultragold?), and not sure Livelovelaugh is intended.
with elliot having up to 13 entries surely it is time that a limit was put on how many a trainer can have, at least they are not all gigginstown which is laughable in the irish grand nat as he has over half the field.
Joe Farrell just been smashed on Betfair into 25/26.
Annoying as he's one of the ones I'm waiting for extra places post decs!
Going to be very touch and go if he makes it in, sounds like Elliott going to run all of his. There's a few that might go for Topham (Ultragold?), and not sure Livelovelaugh is intended.
I've just seen Joe Farrell on Redbet at 16/1 as well, seems to be plummeting.
Only reason I'm on there is because they have a new joiner offer that you can put £1 on Tiger Roll at 25/1... will cover some of the losses if he does go on to win!
*Edit: Although actually placing the promo bet is proving to be a complete shambles.
Personally don't really have any issue with trainers/owners and multiple entries.
Sure everyone has their own view on O'Leary, but he must drop a fortune (easily seven figures, probably eight) each season on racing, so if he wants to have 10 runners in the biggest race I don't really have an issue.
with elliot having up to 13 entries surely it is time that a limit was put on how many a trainer can have, at least they are not all gigginstown which is laughable in the irish grand nat as he has over half the field.
The main concern for me (and I would say this wouldn't I?) but it's likely (as in this case) that the trainer's best chances (TR and, according to the market, Jury Duty) comfortably make the cut. Even General Principle (3rd shortest price of his at top-price 40s) is now comfortably in. But Bless The Wings is 100/1 (for a reason) but can be left in potentially to be the last to make the cut and thus exclude a live threat to TR, JD, GP (viz. Joe Farrell). He also runs Outlander and Don Poli, both also 100/1 and such long shots that the owner aims to auction them. Add in Blow By Blow (100), Mala Beach, A Toi Phil and Monbeg Notorious, all at 80s. Not always going to pan out like this but, obviously, having 13 runners makes it much more likely that the trainer can manipulate the field and crowd out a live rival or two.. Can't blame Elliott for running a cavalry division but it should be stopped.
Joe Farrell just been smashed on Betfair into 25/26.
Annoying as he's one of the ones I'm waiting for extra places post decs!
Going to be very touch and go if he makes it in, sounds like Elliott going to run all of his. There's a few that might go for Topham (Ultragold?), and not sure Livelovelaugh is intended.
Because Hugh Taylor tipped him in his column, presumably. Always happens with his horses - no idea why for this though, as he's a much better flat tipster.
How are you going to decide to limit trainer/owners runners though? By market price or official rating? What if Gigginstown (and considering the money they spend wouldn't suggest this is unrealistic) have 6 horses all shorter than 33/1 in the build up to the race and all rated north of 150?
Do they have to leave one out so some yak from a garbage trainer can get in instead?
Just don't see how can set up a hard set of rules as there's a degree of inevitability that a circumstance will arise to make a mockery of them.
At least in this instance Gigginstown are selling two of theirs so if you want a runner....get your chequebook out!
Joe Farrell just been smashed on Betfair into 25/26.
Annoying as he's one of the ones I'm waiting for extra places post decs!
Going to be very touch and go if he makes it in, sounds like Elliott going to run all of his. There's a few that might go for Topham (Ultragold?), and not sure Livelovelaugh is intended.
Because Hugh Taylor tipped him in his column, presumably. Always happens with his horses - no idea why for this though, as he's a much better flat tipster.
Ah yes just seen that. That'll be why then....bloke is savage good
Sandymount Duke definitely out - injured. What price on Elliott scratching one of his after Friday's 1pm deadline? .............a bit of the old "didn't eat up"
Ultragold confirmed for race now. Read Valtor is too.
Only other one I can find looking likely to not run is Livelovelaugh, where Willie said he has 4 to run (Pleasant, Rathvinden, Up For Review, Pairofbrowneyes).... but tbf he might just have forgotten he had another one in it!
1 Pleasant Company 2 Rathvinden 3 Regal Encore 4 Magic Of Light 5 Mall Dini 6 Pairofbrowneyes 7 Up For Review 8 Valseur Lido 9 Vintage Clouds 10 Livelovelaugh
1,2,6,7 & 10 are all Mullins...he won't even have them jocked up in the immediate aftermath of decs. As said above, not sure if Livelovelaugh is going. Would leave Walsh, Townend and the two Mullins lads on the other 4.
3 is JP owned, and confirmed on target
4 is Jessie Harringtons, and read on target
5 is Pat Kelly, read that jockey is lined up, can't recall who though
8 is Gigginstown and de Bromhead. Ran well last year, so surely goes (they aren't selling him!)
9 is one of the favs
So, potentially only 1 to come out? Barring last minute glitches. Would leave Joe Farrell missing out by 1 and hoping to get in as a reserve (very possible still)
Noticed Patrick Mullins booked up on Don Poli. Was an association with him as horse was previously with Mullins, but would suggest they're only going to have four in the race
Noticed Patrick Mullins booked up on Don Poli. Was an association with him as horse was previously with Mullins, but would suggest they're only going to have four in the race
Hope you're right @PolzeathNick JF runs if so now 20s best price for 6 places
Noticed Patrick Mullins booked up on Don Poli. Was an association with him as horse was previously with Mullins, but would suggest they're only going to have four in the race
Hope you're right @PolzeathNick JF runs if so now 20s best price for 6 places
You're right....forgotten that Sandymount Duke already out!
Comments
I imagine ground's considered too quick for him.
Got to have the 6th place to make it remotely viable from my perspective but used to have BetVic and some others offer 6 places and 1/4.
The good old days.
Going to be touch and go for Joe to get in.
10mm of precipitation for Liverpool overnight (which was as expected) has turned going on GN course to GS (Soft places).
Possible thunderstorm tomorrow, showers on Thursday but dry Friday and Saturday.
Still likely to be GS for the Big One - hopefully sufficient cut for RDT and GP but fine for those wanting a decent surface.
The 1/5 odds thing is getting annoying now, especially on regular weekends. As a guide a simple comparison against the Betfair place market will tell you if you've got a value bet or not.
The five I'm planning on going to war with -
Up For Review
Jury Duty
General Principle
Mall Dini
Joe Farrell (if getting in obviously)
Looks like a bit more rain around than originally thought.
Annoying as he's one of the ones I'm waiting for extra places post decs!
Going to be very touch and go if he makes it in, sounds like Elliott going to run all of his. There's a few that might go for Topham (Ultragold?), and not sure Livelovelaugh is intended.
Only reason I'm on there is because they have a new joiner offer that you can put £1 on Tiger Roll at 25/1... will cover some of the losses if he does go on to win!
*Edit: Although actually placing the promo bet is proving to be a complete shambles.
Sure everyone has their own view on O'Leary, but he must drop a fortune (easily seven figures, probably eight) each season on racing, so if he wants to have 10 runners in the biggest race I don't really have an issue.
The main concern for me (and I would say this wouldn't I?) but it's likely (as in this case) that the trainer's best chances (TR and, according to the market, Jury Duty) comfortably make the cut. Even General Principle (3rd shortest price of his at top-price 40s) is now comfortably in.
But Bless The Wings is 100/1 (for a reason) but can be left in potentially to be the last to make the cut and thus exclude a live threat to TR, JD, GP (viz. Joe Farrell). He also runs Outlander and Don Poli, both also 100/1 and such long shots that the owner aims to auction them. Add in Blow By Blow (100), Mala Beach, A Toi Phil and Monbeg Notorious, all at 80s.
Not always going to pan out like this but, obviously, having 13 runners makes it much more likely that the trainer can manipulate the field and crowd out a live rival or two..
Can't blame Elliott for running a cavalry division but it should be stopped.
Do they have to leave one out so some yak from a garbage trainer can get in instead?
Just don't see how can set up a hard set of rules as there's a degree of inevitability that a circumstance will arise to make a mockery of them.
At least in this instance Gigginstown are selling two of theirs so if you want a runner....get your chequebook out!
So you have to move away from Elliott (maybe the best trainer around)?
What price on Elliott scratching one of his after Friday's 1pm deadline? .............a bit of the old "didn't eat up"
Only other one I can find looking likely to not run is Livelovelaugh, where Willie said he has 4 to run (Pleasant, Rathvinden, Up For Review, Pairofbrowneyes).... but tbf he might just have forgotten he had another one in it!
1 Pleasant Company
2 Rathvinden
3 Regal Encore
4 Magic Of Light
5 Mall Dini
6 Pairofbrowneyes
7 Up For Review
8 Valseur Lido
9 Vintage Clouds
10 Livelovelaugh
1,2,6,7 & 10 are all Mullins...he won't even have them jocked up in the immediate aftermath of decs. As said above, not sure if Livelovelaugh is going. Would leave Walsh, Townend and the two Mullins lads on the other 4.
3 is JP owned, and confirmed on target
4 is Jessie Harringtons, and read on target
5 is Pat Kelly, read that jockey is lined up, can't recall who though
8 is Gigginstown and de Bromhead. Ran well last year, so surely goes (they aren't selling him!)
9 is one of the favs
So, potentially only 1 to come out? Barring last minute glitches. Would leave Joe Farrell missing out by 1 and hoping to get in as a reserve (very possible still)
Rathvinden - Walsh
Pleasant Company - DJ Mullins (rode last year)
Pairofbrowneyes -Townend
Up For Review - D E Mullins
JF runs if so
Mind spinning lol!
Livelovelaugh running off 10-4. Not sure Patrick can do that weight.
The plot thickens.....