Tizzard confirms Ultragold as definitely going for the GN, not the Topham. Harington confirms Magic Of Light an intended runner. Harry Cobden rides Warriors Tale It's going to take a problem for 1 of the top 40 (call me a cynic but make that 1 of a certain 27 of them) before 1pm Friday for Joe Farrell (50/1 on Monday, best-price 20/1 now) to line up. 50:50 I think.
Pairofbrowneyes and Joe Farrell are the only (possible) runners whose Adjusted RPR180 matches Tiger Roll's - all 3 notching careers-best RPRs since the GN weights were framed.
Curtis has 16-18 horses in training - Elliott has 16 still entered for the GN after Monday's Confirmations.
If you're interested, the other top Adj RPRs (career-best Racing Post Rating [for a chase over any distance] adjusted to reflect the difference between 12 stone and the weight to be carried) for Saturday's likely runners: A Toi Phil 179 (earned over 2m) Anibale Fly 178 Jury Duty and Ramses De Teillee 177 Vintage Clouds and Captain Redbeard 175
how do horses get selected for the National? Seems odd to me that a horse whom appears tipped in Joe Farrell will miss out for lower lights. Is it based on form/money or something else?
how do horses get selected for the National? Seems odd to me that a horse whom appears tipped in Joe Farrell will miss out for lower lights. Is it based on form/money or something else?
Essentially it's objective and is those with the best Official handicap ratings, as they stand in mid-Feb.
Official handicap ratings ("marks") are awarded and re-calculated every week by the BHA's Official Handicapper for every horse that's run during the previous week, based on the handicapper's view of the quality of that performance. When the GN weights are announced in mid-Feb the entry with the highest "mark" is given top-weight of 11.10 and the rest are then allocated weights based on how much lower their marks are relative to the top-weight (1lb = 1 on the mark). Come this Thursday's declarations, those with the 40 highest marks (weights) will make the line-up (plus the next 4 are named as reserves in case any drop out). So, Anibale Fly is topweight with 11.10, as he had (back in mid-Feb) the highest "mark" of 164. Tiger Roll's Official Handicap mark was 159 and he is number 3 on the card with 11.05 to carry. Joe Farrell's mark back in Feb was 142 and he's is currently #41 in the list (in position to be 1st Reserve) and will carry 10.02 if he runs.
The Racing Post Rating is the Racing Post's experts' view of the quality of horses' performances (totally separate from that of the Official Handicapper, so an unofficial but widely-respected evaluation). The numbers I referred to above ("Adjusted RPR") are designed to "add in" to the evaluation of the field the effect of the different weights they'll carry on Saturday (calculated as the number of lbs below 12 stone that each runner will carry). So, Tiger Roll's career-best RPR is 171 and he carries 11.05. So that's 9lbs (below 12 stone) to add to 171 = 180. Joe Farrell's career-best RPR is much lower at 154 but he would only carry 10.02 (so that's 26lbs less than 12 stone, added to 154 = 180) So, although there are many other factors to evaluate, one could crudely argue that, at their differing weights, Tiger Roll and Joe Farrell are evenly matched. Not nearly as simple as that of course.
There's a lot more nuances to this but, essentially, that's the beauty of a "handicap" race, which is intended to give lower-rated runners (in theory) as good a chance of winning as a higher-rated one.
how do horses get selected for the National? Seems odd to me that a horse whom appears tipped in Joe Farrell will miss out for lower lights. Is it based on form/money or something else?
This is a roughshod explanation so any clarifications would be appreciated!
So at initial declarations/early entries, you usually end up with over 100 runners that theoretically intend to line up.
These runners are then allocated weight based on their recent performances - hence why, n this thread, there was a lot of umming and ahhing from Peanuts about whether Bristol De Mai (intended top weight) would actually run - which would affect whether the weights stayed down or increased, should he pull out.
So, certain horses that have performed to higher ratings get in, based on that weight/rating, as it's a handicap. This means the "lesser" horses (in this case, including Joe Farrell) won't make the cut because the field is capped at 40 for safety reasons.
Obviously, over the course of a season, horses can have different plans/get injured or otherwise have to withdraw from National contention, which is why this oversubscription of horses happens.
While JF has been tipped, it was contingent on a couple of other horses missing out. I remember last year, Walk In The Mill/Final Nudge (was it one of them?) snuck in a couple of days before, which made one or both of Peanuts and PolzeathNick very happy, as they now had a live chance.
That's about what I'd guess but any other input would be appreciated.
... Damn it, Peanuts posts as soon as I start typing a reply, ignore me
I think there should be a notification pop up like on some messenger and social media outlets saying ‘peanuts is typing’, then you can go and make a cuppa and return to read his wise views. if ‘grapevine is typing’ appears, you could fly to Sri Lanka, hand pick your tea from a plantation, watch a test series and return to still find the notification flashing.
Vieux Lion Rouge looks a likely finisher. That alone makes him worthy of consideration for a place. But the way things are going this year he will probably be taken out now.
Vieux Lion Rouge looks a likely finisher. That alone makes him worthy of consideration for a place. But the way things are going this year he will probably be taken out now.
by no means tips but my coppers will be going on the following tomorrow, had a better than usual cheltenham, so left a bit in my sky bet account to play at aintree and punchestown then hopefully withdraw as the flat does not interest me apart from the big festivals;
1.45 kalashnikov 2.20 fakir doudaries 2.50 bristol de mai 3.25 bvd supasundae ew 4.05 champagne west ew balnaslaw ew 4.40 forest bihan ew le prezien ew 5.15 shantewe ew timetochill w
This isn't going to be very imaginative, but my initial thoughts are as follows. Do need to do a bit of research this evening though:
1.45 - La Bague Au Roi, who's fresh and this has always been the plan. Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov didn't exactly cover themselves with glory in the Arkle.
2.20 - Christopher Wood looks very interesting at the 10/1 price. Would be my each-way call, though Pentland Hills is my most likely winner.
2.50 - I had Kemboy at Cheltenham who unseated at the first, and if he has a clear round I reckon he wins this. 5/2 but definitely worth a lash.
3.25 - probably some value in Silver Streak at 16s each way, but I can't really see past Buveur D'Air. One of Faugheen and Melon will probably follow BVD home.
4.05 - to be looked at tomorrow morning.
4.40 - Lady Buttons at 7s or 8s looks a great win bet. Adrrastos and Movie Legend (both 14s or so) with generous place terms - five I think? - are worth chancing for some thievery.
Pairofbrowneyes and Joe Farrell are the only (possible) runners whose Adjusted RPR180 matches Tiger Roll's - all 3 notching careers-best RPRs since the GN weights were framed.
Curtis has 16-18 horses in training - Elliott has 16 still entered for the GN after Monday's Confirmations.
If you're interested, the other top Adj RPRs (career-best Racing Post Rating [for a chase over any distance] adjusted to reflect the difference between 12 stone and the weight to be carried) for Saturday's likely runners: A Toi Phil 179 (earned over 2m) Anibale Fly 178 Jury Duty and Ramses De Teillee 177 Vintage Clouds and Captain Redbeard 175
Ruby has said that Pairof browneyes is 10lbs well in on his latest win. I am intrigued by the disparity in price between Pleasant Company and Tiger Roll. PC was beaten last year in a photo and is 4lbs better off with Tiger and currently around 20/1. Why?
Vieux Lion Rouge looks a likely finisher. That alone makes him worthy of consideration for a place. But the way things are going this year he will probably be taken out now.
I thought Rathvinden was high on your list as well?
Yes i am on Rathvinden but i want a couple of outsiders to back either each way or just for a place. I will also be having a small bet on a combination forecast. Folsom Blue is another one that interests me.
1420 - though Band Of Outlaws was awesome at Cheltenham. He's fav though, so don't care
1450 - 6 runners, don't care
1525 - Happy to take on Buveur D'Air after he fell at Cheltenham (he did run around riderless), for all that he may bolt up. Melon had a really hard race, and think he's better on undulating tracks. Faugheen is 11 now. Ch'tibello has to step up out of handicap company, and Silver Streak is just a low 150s horse and got to be a worry getting this 2.5m. Supasundae has looked gone at the game this year and Verdana Blue needs it to be a road... So, I'm going for two wild swings. SUMMERVILLE BOY (25/1) is a dual grade 1 winner, and whilst he hasn't fulfilled his potential this year he has apparently been running with a hairline fracture so there is an explanation. Stepping up to 2.5m looks fine to me, and happy to play at the price that he comes back to something near what he was showing last year. The other is BRAIN POWER (33/1) who has been called a few names over the years but is a savagely talented beast on his day. He actually won at Cheltenham when reverting back to hurdles from a chasing career that never looked like working out, but I've always thought he's best on a flat track. It's interesting he steps up to 2.5m too, on pedigree it should be right up his street and the furthest he's been was 2m2f over fences when he bolted up by 28L. Happy to chance them both and hope for the best!
1605 - Not a race that does much for me, but WONDERFUL CHARM is good on flat tracks. He hasn't excelled over these fences in the past though, so minimal confidence.
1640 - Finally a decent handicap! Plenty of interesting horses but they are priced accordingly. Would be interested in BRELAN D'AS back on a flat track after he ran well in the Grand Annual. WHATSWRONGWITHYOU is another one that should be well suited by this. But I'm quite keen on the chances on MOVIE LEGEND, who ran at Ascot finishing 3rd behind Hell's Kitchen and Janika. Valdez and Magic Saint were 4th and 5th, and after having a wind op he's gone on to win twice since and looked on the upgrade. Will back all three with extra places on offer but the latter the main poke!
1715 - Does anyone actually bet in bumpers?! The Glancing Queen is a horse I like going forward
Out of interest why do you not mention Pleasant Company as a contender. Finished so strongly last year and had the race been 50 yards further would have won. Opposes Tiger Roll with a 2lb advantage in the weights over last year, and is 5times the price at 20/1. Appreciate Pleasant Company would potentially like it softer, is that why you have discounted him ?
Out of interest why do you not mention Pleasant Company as a contender. Finished so strongly last year and had the race been 50 yards further would have won. Opposes Tiger Roll with a 2lb advantage in the weights over last year, and is 5times the price at 20/1. Appreciate Pleasant Company would potentially like it softer, is that why you have discounted him ?
In a nutshell that's right. There's mixed views about the quality of this GN - there is a lot of no-hopers but plenty with the profile to run huge races, including Pleasant Company. Ultimately, it's fine distinctions on stats but my model rates him as Minor Place Potential on the likely Gd~GS. If it came up softer than GS, he'd be Strong Place Potential (chance to sneak it with some luck). He's had a very similar 2 run (nothing to show) campaign as last year. He's carrying 4lbs more absolute weight (+7 OR) but is indeed better off with TR on last year's race - but is TR the same horse? There's mixed views about the quality of his XC win at the Festival but many believe (and, for what it's worth, my model endorses) that TR's improved since last year (remarkable for a returning GN winner). So too has Anibale Fly, incidentally. Brilliant staying pedigree (family of Comply or Die and sired by Presenting). Wouldn't want to put you off him, even if he's not on my slip - plenty worse e/w shouts but the more juice in the ground the better.
Back the following at Aintree and you would of made a profit the past five years 1 Any horse trained by Colin Tizzard 2 Any horse that finished in the top 3 at the Cheltenham Festival 3 Any horse whose last race was at Uttoxeter no matter where it finished
Uttoxeter provided a lovely bit of profit with Poker Play slamming home at 25/1 for… Well, probably just for me, as you’d have been mad to follow me on the back of Cheltenham. Here are a couple of mini thoughts ahead of the first day at Aintree – though, of course, the Big One is what it’s all about:
1.45 – La Bague Au Roi @ 13/8 – 2pts win. She gets 7lbs and Greatrex swerved Cheltenham with Aintree always as the plan. I can’t help but think she’s the most likely winner and I’m happy to be an unimaginative favourite back for once. Kalashnikov and Glen Forsa weren’t as tidy as many seem to think over the Arkle before the URs, so I’m happy to take them on.
2.20 – Christopher Wood @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Betfair and Paddy Power, 1/5 1-3). With nine runners and three places in this race, we’ve got near-optimal value thievery, and Christopher Wood is similar in some respects to Pentland Hills in terms of exposure before the latter’s Triumph victory (marred, of course, by the devastating fatality of Sir Erec). He can only beat what’s against him, and did so very well the last twice, so can definitely come on and take a chunk out of one of the top three – most likely Fakir D’Oudairies in the market.
2.50 – Kemboy @ 5/2 – 2pts win (Bet365, Sky Bet and others). He’s essentially fresh after unseating at the first in the Gold Cup (easily excused as tight for room), and the more I look back at his Leopardstown win at Christmas, the more I like his chances. The price is probably fair, but again, I’m happy to be unimaginative.
3.25 – no bet. Buveur D’Air should win this. Maybe Silver Streak can be admirable in defeat again, but this isn’t really a race for me, despite Silver Streak, Summerville Boy and Brain Power all offering each way scumbaggery options.
4.05 – Seefood @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Ladbrokes, PP, Coral, 1/5 1-5). A very open race in which I think Road to Rome is definitely the most likely winner, but the odds are prohibitive. As with all double figure priced shots, we have risks attached here, but he knows the fences and won last time out, so worth a shot with five places paid.
4.40 – Lady Buttons @ 8/1 – 1pt win (365, PP, Betfair and others), and Movie Legend @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (SkyBet, Hills, PP etc – 1/5 1-5). I think 8s is a fair price for Lady Buttons, who’s really likeable and has run very very well over all obstacles this season. Movie Legend looks potentially progressive though this demands more, but he’s been incredibly consistent and I hope that can continue.
1.45- La Bague Au Roi 2.20- Fakir D'Oudaries 2.50- Kemboy 3.25- Faughneen EW 4.05- Top Wood EW & Dineur EW 4.40- Diego Du Charmil EW 5.15- Misty Whisky EW
EW Yankee
La Bague Au Roi- Fakir D'Odairies Faughneen Diego Du Charmil
Back the following at Aintree and you would of made a profit the past five years 1 Any horse trained by Colin Tizzard 2 Any horse that finished in the top 3 at the Cheltenham Festival 3 Any horse whose last race was at Uttoxeter no matter where it finished
love stats, on the above this would be who to back on day 1
1.45 megli khan/spiritofthegames 2.20 band of outlaws/pentland hills 2.50 elegant escape/bristol de mai/road to respect 3.25 faugheen/melon/chitabello/silver streak 4.05 top wood 4.40 brelan d'as/molineux 5.15 no horses fit stats
Bet365's deal (half stake refunded for e/w bets up to £125) now available for existing customers. Still 5 places but the only firm offering 1/4 odds. Cheers Bob I'm taking advantage of the subsidy to add one of the 2 runners missing on my slip from my model's winning candidates: ANIBALE FLY, as The Tiger sadly remains too short to make it economic from my perspective.
Bet365's deal (half stake refunded for e/w bets up to £125) now available for existing customers. Still 5 places but the only firm offering 1/4 odds. Cheers Bob I'm taking advantage of the subsidy to add one of the 2 runners missing on my slip from my model's winning candidates: ANIBALE FLY, as The Tiger sadly remains too short to make it economic from my perspective.
Bet365's deal (half stake refunded for e/w bets up to £125) now available for existing customers. Still 5 places but the only firm offering 1/4 odds. Cheers Bob I'm taking advantage of the subsidy to add one of the 2 runners missing on my slip from my model's winning candidates: ANIBALE FLY, as The Tiger sadly remains too short to make it economic from my perspective.
Sorry, this is @anyone (don't want to use up Peanut's valuable time with inane questions!) got my "too good to be true" hat on.
So, if I put £125 on a load of horses E/W on the same betting slip with Bet365... £62.5 will pop back into the account a couple of hours later? (or even £250 on for £125 back?)
Is there a catch? I guess some of their odds look a little shorter than those posted on here (GP 25/1, VC 12/1, AF 10/1) maybe?
Comments
Rames de teillle 25/1 and General Principal 40/1 both EW
And went for LiveLoveLaugh as surely all true Charlton fans should
Harington confirms Magic Of Light an intended runner.
Harry Cobden rides Warriors Tale
It's going to take a problem for 1 of the top 40 (call me a cynic but make that 1 of a certain 27 of them) before 1pm Friday for Joe Farrell (50/1 on Monday, best-price 20/1 now) to line up. 50:50 I think.
- Pairofbrowneyes and Joe Farrell are the only (possible) runners whose Adjusted RPR180 matches Tiger Roll's - all 3 notching careers-best RPRs since the GN weights were framed.
- Curtis has 16-18 horses in training - Elliott has 16 still entered for the GN after Monday's Confirmations.
If you're interested, the other top Adj RPRs (career-best Racing Post Rating [for a chase over any distance] adjusted to reflect the difference between 12 stone and the weight to be carried) for Saturday's likely runners:A Toi Phil 179 (earned over 2m)
Anibale Fly 178
Jury Duty and Ramses De Teillee 177
Vintage Clouds and Captain Redbeard 175
Essentially it's objective and is those with the best Official handicap ratings, as they stand in mid-Feb.
Official handicap ratings ("marks") are awarded and re-calculated every week by the BHA's Official Handicapper for every horse that's run during the previous week, based on the handicapper's view of the quality of that performance.
When the GN weights are announced in mid-Feb the entry with the highest "mark" is given top-weight of 11.10 and the rest are then allocated weights based on how much lower their marks are relative to the top-weight (1lb = 1 on the mark). Come this Thursday's declarations, those with the 40 highest marks (weights) will make the line-up (plus the next 4 are named as reserves in case any drop out).
So, Anibale Fly is topweight with 11.10, as he had (back in mid-Feb) the highest "mark" of 164. Tiger Roll's Official Handicap mark was 159 and he is number 3 on the card with 11.05 to carry.
Joe Farrell's mark back in Feb was 142 and he's is currently #41 in the list (in position to be 1st Reserve) and will carry 10.02 if he runs.
The Racing Post Rating is the Racing Post's experts' view of the quality of horses' performances (totally separate from that of the Official Handicapper, so an unofficial but widely-respected evaluation). The numbers I referred to above ("Adjusted RPR") are designed to "add in" to the evaluation of the field the effect of the different weights they'll carry on Saturday (calculated as the number of lbs below 12 stone that each runner will carry).
So, Tiger Roll's career-best RPR is 171 and he carries 11.05. So that's 9lbs (below 12 stone) to add to 171 = 180.
Joe Farrell's career-best RPR is much lower at 154 but he would only carry 10.02 (so that's 26lbs less than 12 stone, added to 154 = 180)
So, although there are many other factors to evaluate, one could crudely argue that, at their differing weights, Tiger Roll and Joe Farrell are evenly matched. Not nearly as simple as that of course.
There's a lot more nuances to this but, essentially, that's the beauty of a "handicap" race, which is intended to give lower-rated runners (in theory) as good a chance of winning as a higher-rated one.
So at initial declarations/early entries, you usually end up with over 100 runners that theoretically intend to line up.
These runners are then allocated weight based on their recent performances - hence why, n this thread, there was a lot of umming and ahhing from Peanuts about whether Bristol De Mai (intended top weight) would actually run - which would affect whether the weights stayed down or increased, should he pull out.
So, certain horses that have performed to higher ratings get in, based on that weight/rating, as it's a handicap. This means the "lesser" horses (in this case, including Joe Farrell) won't make the cut because the field is capped at 40 for safety reasons.
Obviously, over the course of a season, horses can have different plans/get injured or otherwise have to withdraw from National contention, which is why this oversubscription of horses happens.
While JF has been tipped, it was contingent on a couple of other horses missing out. I remember last year, Walk In The Mill/Final Nudge (was it one of them?) snuck in a couple of days before, which made one or both of Peanuts and PolzeathNick very happy, as they now had a live chance.
That's about what I'd guess but any other input would be appreciated.
Don't ignore @PaddyP17 's post - all good and further illumination.
if ‘grapevine is typing’ appears, you could fly to Sri Lanka, hand pick your tea from a plantation, watch a test series and return to still find the notification flashing.
I thought Rathvinden was high on your list as well?
1.45 kalashnikov
2.20 fakir doudaries
2.50 bristol de mai
3.25 bvd
supasundae ew
4.05 champagne west ew
balnaslaw ew
4.40 forest bihan ew
le prezien ew
5.15 shantewe ew
timetochill w
1.45 - La Bague Au Roi, who's fresh and this has always been the plan. Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov didn't exactly cover themselves with glory in the Arkle.
2.20 - Christopher Wood looks very interesting at the 10/1 price. Would be my each-way call, though Pentland Hills is my most likely winner.
2.50 - I had Kemboy at Cheltenham who unseated at the first, and if he has a clear round I reckon he wins this. 5/2 but definitely worth a lash.
3.25 - probably some value in Silver Streak at 16s each way, but I can't really see past Buveur D'Air. One of Faugheen and Melon will probably follow BVD home.
4.05 - to be looked at tomorrow morning.
4.40 - Lady Buttons at 7s or 8s looks a great win bet. Adrrastos and Movie Legend (both 14s or so) with generous place terms - five I think? - are worth chancing for some thievery.
5.15 - Could not give less of a shit. Whatever.
I am intrigued by the disparity in price between Pleasant Company and Tiger Roll.
PC was beaten last year in a photo and is 4lbs better off with Tiger and currently around 20/1. Why?
1420 - though Band Of Outlaws was awesome at Cheltenham. He's fav though, so don't care
1450 - 6 runners, don't care
1525 - Happy to take on Buveur D'Air after he fell at Cheltenham (he did run around riderless), for all that he may bolt up. Melon had a really hard race, and think he's better on undulating tracks. Faugheen is 11 now. Ch'tibello has to step up out of handicap company, and Silver Streak is just a low 150s horse and got to be a worry getting this 2.5m. Supasundae has looked gone at the game this year and Verdana Blue needs it to be a road...
So, I'm going for two wild swings. SUMMERVILLE BOY (25/1) is a dual grade 1 winner, and whilst he hasn't fulfilled his potential this year he has apparently been running with a hairline fracture so there is an explanation. Stepping up to 2.5m looks fine to me, and happy to play at the price that he comes back to something near what he was showing last year. The other is BRAIN POWER (33/1) who has been called a few names over the years but is a savagely talented beast on his day. He actually won at Cheltenham when reverting back to hurdles from a chasing career that never looked like working out, but I've always thought he's best on a flat track. It's interesting he steps up to 2.5m too, on pedigree it should be right up his street and the furthest he's been was 2m2f over fences when he bolted up by 28L. Happy to chance them both and hope for the best!
1605 - Not a race that does much for me, but WONDERFUL CHARM is good on flat tracks. He hasn't excelled over these fences in the past though, so minimal confidence.
1640 - Finally a decent handicap! Plenty of interesting horses but they are priced accordingly. Would be interested in BRELAN D'AS back on a flat track after he ran well in the Grand Annual. WHATSWRONGWITHYOU is another one that should be well suited by this. But I'm quite keen on the chances on MOVIE LEGEND, who ran at Ascot finishing 3rd behind Hell's Kitchen and Janika. Valdez and Magic Saint were 4th and 5th, and after having a wind op he's gone on to win twice since and looked on the upgrade. Will back all three with extra places on offer but the latter the main poke!
1715 - Does anyone actually bet in bumpers?! The Glancing Queen is a horse I like going forward
Out of interest why do you not mention Pleasant Company as a contender. Finished so strongly last year and had the race been 50 yards further would have won. Opposes Tiger Roll with a 2lb advantage in the weights over last year, and is 5times the price at 20/1. Appreciate Pleasant Company would potentially like it softer, is that why you have discounted him ?
In a nutshell that's right.
There's mixed views about the quality of this GN - there is a lot of no-hopers but plenty with the profile to run huge races, including Pleasant Company. Ultimately, it's fine distinctions on stats but my model rates him as Minor Place Potential on the likely Gd~GS. If it came up softer than GS, he'd be Strong Place Potential (chance to sneak it with some luck).
He's had a very similar 2 run (nothing to show) campaign as last year. He's carrying 4lbs more absolute weight (+7 OR) but is indeed better off with TR on last year's race - but is TR the same horse? There's mixed views about the quality of his XC win at the Festival but many believe (and, for what it's worth, my model endorses) that TR's improved since last year (remarkable for a returning GN winner). So too has Anibale Fly, incidentally.
Brilliant staying pedigree (family of Comply or Die and sired by Presenting). Wouldn't want to put you off him, even if he's not on my slip - plenty worse e/w shouts but the more juice in the ground the better.
I miscalculated that PC was 4lbs better off with Tiger but of course it is 2lbs.
Although he is now 11 he has not been over raced.
1 Any horse trained by Colin Tizzard
2 Any horse that finished in the top 3 at the Cheltenham Festival
3 Any horse whose last race was at Uttoxeter no matter where it finished
Aintree GN Festival 2019 – Day One Tips
Uttoxeter provided a lovely bit of profit with Poker Play slamming home at 25/1 for… Well, probably just for me, as you’d have been mad to follow me on the back of Cheltenham. Here are a couple of mini thoughts ahead of the first day at Aintree – though, of course, the Big One is what it’s all about:
1.45 – La Bague Au Roi @ 13/8 – 2pts win. She gets 7lbs and Greatrex swerved Cheltenham with Aintree always as the plan. I can’t help but think she’s the most likely winner and I’m happy to be an unimaginative favourite back for once. Kalashnikov and Glen Forsa weren’t as tidy as many seem to think over the Arkle before the URs, so I’m happy to take them on.
2.20 – Christopher Wood @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Betfair and Paddy Power, 1/5 1-3). With nine runners and three places in this race, we’ve got near-optimal value thievery, and Christopher Wood is similar in some respects to Pentland Hills in terms of exposure before the latter’s Triumph victory (marred, of course, by the devastating fatality of Sir Erec). He can only beat what’s against him, and did so very well the last twice, so can definitely come on and take a chunk out of one of the top three – most likely Fakir D’Oudairies in the market.
2.50 – Kemboy @ 5/2 – 2pts win (Bet365, Sky Bet and others). He’s essentially fresh after unseating at the first in the Gold Cup (easily excused as tight for room), and the more I look back at his Leopardstown win at Christmas, the more I like his chances. The price is probably fair, but again, I’m happy to be unimaginative.
3.25 – no bet. Buveur D’Air should win this. Maybe Silver Streak can be admirable in defeat again, but this isn’t really a race for me, despite Silver Streak, Summerville Boy and Brain Power all offering each way scumbaggery options.
4.05 – Seefood @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Ladbrokes, PP, Coral, 1/5 1-5). A very open race in which I think Road to Rome is definitely the most likely winner, but the odds are prohibitive. As with all double figure priced shots, we have risks attached here, but he knows the fences and won last time out, so worth a shot with five places paid.
4.40 – Lady Buttons @ 8/1 – 1pt win (365, PP, Betfair and others), and Movie Legend @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (SkyBet, Hills, PP etc – 1/5 1-5). I think 8s is a fair price for Lady Buttons, who’s really likeable and has run very very well over all obstacles this season. Movie Legend looks potentially progressive though this demands more, but he’s been incredibly consistent and I hope that can continue.
https://valueburglar.wordpress.com/2019/04/03/aintree-gn-festival-2019-day-one-tips/
2.20- Fakir D'Oudaries
2.50- Kemboy
3.25- Faughneen EW
4.05- Top Wood EW & Dineur EW
4.40- Diego Du Charmil EW
5.15- Misty Whisky EW
EW Yankee
La Bague Au Roi-
Fakir D'Odairies
Faughneen
Diego Du Charmil
1.45 megli khan/spiritofthegames
2.20 band of outlaws/pentland hills
2.50 elegant escape/bristol de mai/road to respect
3.25 faugheen/melon/chitabello/silver streak
4.05 top wood
4.40 brelan d'as/molineux
5.15 no horses fit stats
Cheers Bob
I'm taking advantage of the subsidy to add one of the 2 runners missing on my slip from my model's winning candidates: ANIBALE FLY, as The Tiger sadly remains too short to make it economic from my perspective.
Happy to oblige, Peanuts.
So, if I put £125 on a load of horses E/W on the same betting slip with Bet365... £62.5 will pop back into the account a couple of hours later? (or even £250 on for £125 back?)
Is there a catch? I guess some of their odds look a little shorter than those posted on here (GP 25/1, VC 12/1, AF 10/1) maybe?
Today gone for a couple of bets:
CDO & Beuveur @ 7/1 both to win
Kemboy @ 5/2 14:50
La Bague Au Roi, Fakir & CDO - 50/1 , small bet
Movie Legend E/W @ 20/1
Mixed up some of the tips on here so good luck all