Back the following at Aintree and you would of made a profit the past five years 1 Any horse trained by Colin Tizzard 2 Any horse that finished in the top 3 at the Cheltenham Festival 3 Any horse whose last race was at Uttoxeter no matter where it finished
love stats, on the above this would be who to back on day 1
1.45 megli khan/spiritofthegames 2.20 band of outlaws/pentland hills 2.50 elegant escape/bristol de mai/road to respect 3.25 faugheen/melon/chitabello/silver streak 4.05 top wood 4.40 brelan d'as/molineux 5.15 no horses fit stats
oh the credit goes to @killer kish for providing the stats i just singled out the horses that fitted the criteria - tomorrow is a very tough card with a lot of big fields, will run the stats through tomorrows runners and post them up here in the morning.
going on todays runners that matched you would of backed 14 horses and had winners at 2/1 and 18/1
Official time for the Foxhunters 5.45. That’s a mix of Soft and GS in my book (not straight Soft).
The ground for Saturday is difficult to call. Clearly the
rain has had an effect today and it's due to continue until this evening BUT Aintree is well-drained these days and the
forecast is:
·
Saturday – dry (2~9% chance of rain) and more frequent
sunshine
If that forecast is right, I think we are looking at Good to Soft (possibly Good places) –
decent enough for those that want a sound surface but enough cut for those not
wanting it quick.
If that’s so, my model rates 5 with Winning Profiles:
[those in bold are on my betting slip e/w]
·
Tiger Roll
·
Ramses De
Teillee
·
General
Principle
·
Vintage
Clouds (the better the ground, the better his chance - if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd drop to Strong Place Potential)
·
Anibale
Fly
Strong Place
Potential on GS or better (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my
nose fancies them):
·
Joe Farrell
·
Rathvinden (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)
·
Ballyoptic
·
Walk In The Mill
·
Pleasant Company (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS)
A number of runners have profiles which are consistent on GS or better with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty and Rock The
Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:
·
Singlefarmpayment
(66/1) (the better the ground the better his chance of placing)
·
Regal Encore (66/1)
·
Ultragold (66/1)
·
Folsom Blue (66/1) (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)
·
Warriors Tale (66/1)
·
A Toi Phil (80/1)
Good luck all. Whoever you back, let's hope all 2- and 4-legged come back safe and sound.
Taking value is what causes you to have your stake limited, regardless of winning and losing. Regularly betting purely on boosts, free bet offers etc is the way to get restricted swiftly!
Agreed. It's not winning or losing, it's about your betting pattern/choices.
I only bet on English horse racing and football. The Grand National is the only race i bet each way.
The Glancing Queen 11/2 @ 5.15 for me today. Backed it at Cheltenham as only mare in the flat race. She finished 5th after being hampered in run in and looked full of running towards the end. Think this is an excellent price and shot.
Taking value is what causes you to have your stake limited, regardless of winning and losing. Regularly betting purely on boosts, free bet offers etc is the way to get restricted swiftly!
Agreed. It's not winning or losing, it's about your betting pattern/choices.
I only bet on English horse racing and football. The Grand National is the only race i bet each way.
I never said it's just filthy each-way!
English horse racing covers a pretty wide area. All forms of horseracing, or any particular type (Maiden 2-y-o, Novice Hurdles/Chases), any particular trainer? Backing before big moves on the exchanges or when the price is out of line with the exchanges (exchange ARB)? Do you usually beat SP? Any particular tipping lines? Do you follow a staking pattern? Do you only bet on 'live' horses?
Comments
Had for e/w value (before the field dropped to seven) but I’ll take a win all day long.
5 runs
1st dec 18 11/8 1st
26th dec 18 1/4 2nd
2nd feb 19 1/5 1st
12th mar 19 11/4 fell
4th apr 19 5/6 2nd
Got my hopes pinned on Ucello Conti here. Plus Road To Riches e/w
going on todays runners that matched you would of backed 14 horses and had winners at 2/1 and 18/1
OK @guinnessaddick
Official time for the Foxhunters 5.45. That’s a mix of Soft and GS in my book (not straight Soft).
The ground for Saturday is difficult to call. Clearly the rain has had an effect today and it's due to continue until this evening BUT Aintree is well-drained these days and the forecast is:
· Friday – dry (8~18% chance of rain) occasional sunny intervals
· Saturday – dry (2~9% chance of rain) and more frequent sunshine
If that forecast is right, I think we are looking at Good to Soft (possibly Good places) – decent enough for those that want a sound surface but enough cut for those not wanting it quick.
If that’s so, my model rates 5 with Winning Profiles:
[those in bold are on my betting slip e/w]
· Tiger Roll
· Ramses De Teillee
· General Principle
· Vintage Clouds (the better the ground, the better his chance - if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd drop to Strong Place Potential)
· Anibale Fly
Strong Place Potential on GS or better (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my nose fancies them):
· Joe Farrell
· Rathvinden (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)
· Ballyoptic
· Walk In The Mill
· Pleasant Company (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS)
A number of runners have profiles which are consistent on GS or better with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty and Rock The Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:
· Singlefarmpayment (66/1) (the better the ground the better his chance of placing)
· Regal Encore (66/1)
· Ultragold (66/1)
· Folsom Blue (66/1) (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)
· Warriors Tale (66/1)
· A Toi Phil (80/1)
Good luck all. Whoever you back, let's hope all 2- and 4-legged come back safe and sound.
1.45 point of principle
caltex
2.20 itchy feet
2.50 lostintranslation
topofthegame
3.25 prolitilogue
4.05 janika
4.40 champ
dallas des pictons
ardlethen
the captains inn
5.15 master debonair
Ps. My family think I'm a racing genius because of you.
I always seem to get there or there abouts on national day!
I never said it's just filthy each-way!
English horse racing covers a pretty wide area. All forms of horseracing, or any particular type (Maiden 2-y-o, Novice Hurdles/Chases), any particular trainer? Backing before big moves on the exchanges or when the price is out of line with the exchanges (exchange ARB)? Do you usually beat SP? Any particular tipping lines? Do you follow a staking pattern? Do you only bet on 'live' horses?