Confirmed going dried out to GS today. Watering landing side of fences. Goimg to ride quicker still tomorrow - effectively mix of GS and Good. Promotes Vintage Clouds' and Joe Farrell's chances (and Singlefarmpayment's of placing). Not helpful for Ramses De Teillee or General Principle but certainly doesn't rule them out.
Basically copied peanuts 6 plus added livelovelaugh e/w for my nan whose just been given a few weeks to live. If it wasn't for her, none of my family would be addicks.
Ramses De Teillee Vintage Clouds Rock The Kasbah General Principle Joe Farrell
I've put a saver - hopefully - on Tiger Roll, and a couple of quid on Bless The Wings (one of my favourite horses, sentimental), but they don't quite count in terms of actual betting!
Tips for the rest of the card (which ain't great) to follow. Good luck one and all!
Mine basically follow Peanuts but I also fancied Minnelli Rocco and the wife wanted One for Arthur so the others are; 1. RDT: 33-1 2. General Principle: 33-1 3. Joe Farrell: 50-1 4. Single farm payment: 50-1 5. Folsom Blue: 50-1 6. Bless the wings: 150-1........all each way, 5 or 6 places
A lot of sunshine (no rain) forecast for all of today at Aintree. No question that, despite the going starting Soft yesterday morning, it was genuine Good to Soft by 4pm for the Topham. Watering just the landing areas means that it is definitely going to ride quick-ish by 5.15pm - no doubt the official going will remain "Good to Soft". As said yesterday, that's not the best news for RDT or General Principle (among others) but certainly doesn't rule them out as regards their stat-profiles. But it's excellent news for Vintage Clouds and Joe Farrell (among others, including the bonkers Singlefarmpayment - still available at 66/1). And here's a little factlet for you to chew on, given that 5 of the top 6 in the market are Irish-trained:
Since 2013 (when fence and distance alterations took effect), there have been 4 GNs run on GS or quicker (as today) and 2 run on Soft or softer:
First 6 home in terms of where trained:
Of 24 finishing 1~6 on Gd/GS: 19 Brit [79% from 74% of runners] (incl all 4 winners), 5 Irish [21% from 26%]
Of 12 finishing 1~6 on Sft/Hvy: 10 Irish [83% from 39% of runners] (incl both winners), 2 Brit [17% from 61% of runners]
Clearly, on decent ground it's broadly gone with representation. On Soft~Hvy, the Irish have big advantage. Sheer weight of numbers may tell in favour of the Irish today. Even excl the 2 sold on Thursday, Irish-trained runners are 45% of the field today (the highest % in living memory, possibly ever). So they clearly have a great chance of grabbing the prize despite the going not playing to their particular strength. Nonetheless, though the Irish have had 4 runners-up, all 9 GNs from 2008 run on Good or GS were won by British-trained horses (and arguably it was misfortune that prevented a Brit winner in 2007). Perhaps there are some over-priced opportunities among the home team.
So many have chances but one I like at a price is Valseur Lido. Faded into 8th last year but has better going and almost a stone lighter. Can’t desert Regal Encore either.
Here we go. One of my favourite days in the sporting calendar. This is The Big One. I’ll be having a bet; you’ll be having a bet; the postman will have a tip; your nan will pick one on the colours for 50p each way; Big Dave down the pub will have a tenner on the favourite (… fair enough this year) and celebrate if it wins with a massive bit of chang acquired with the profits. We know what’s up.
However, there are some Internet luminaries that I tend to turn to for the Grand National. Well, I say some, I mean two luminaries. (Plus myself, but in no way am I a luminary!) And conveniently, they can both be found in the most unfashionable of online backwaters…
For it is time for a confession. I am, for many sins in a past life, a Charlton Athletic fan – and a pretty devoted one at that. And it is on the Charlton Life football forum that the greatest of all Grand National gurus resides. His name is PeanutsMolloy, and he seemingly spends his entire year in front of spreadsheets, form guides, race replays, and joins the infinite dots to create a clear picture of the GN. Imagine Charlie from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but accurate:
“But just LOOK at Double Honour’s 2005 run until he unseated, and…”
Please find the thread here, as it’s genuinely wonderful reading.
The second luminary on that board is a different prospect altogether. I’ve never seen him post anything about football, and I genuinely think he just uses Charlton Life as an outlet for horse racing. The various posters do offer some fantastic insight by and large, but when someone’s on there only to talk about having a lash on handicaps, you pay attention. That man is PolzeathNick, who – unless I’m sorely mistaken – probably is the owner of the Polzeath Ratings blog. He doesn’t post much, but it’s definitely worth a follow here.
But that’s enough of that. Sung praises are all very well and good but let’s get to the meat. I must confess I’m following the thread pretty religiously, as my only thoughts would have been Baie Des Iles until scratched, and Rock The Kasbah is hardly original tipping material. Let’s get to the contenders I’ll be advising, and all credit to Charlton Life if we get returns:
Ramses De Teillee @ 28/1 – 0.75pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-6). Peanuts’ explanation is on P6 of the thread. Read it.
General Principle @ 50/1 – 0.5pts e/w (generally 1/5 1-6). Explanation on P6 as well.
Jury Duty @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral, Betfred, Black Type, 1/5 1-6). PolzeathNick’s got a good preview on P5.
All of these guys have live chances. Let’s hope we get ours by around 5.45pm today!
Rather than simply follow Peanuts this year I have crunched the stats, run a model, studied previous form and races and after all that, my top picks for the day are;
Vintage Clouds Joe Farrell Singlefarmpayments General Principle Annibelle Fly Ramses de Teillee
Here we go. One of my favourite days in the sporting calendar. This is The Big One. I’ll be having a bet; you’ll be having a bet; the postman will have a tip; your nan will pick one on the colours for 50p each way; Big Dave down the pub will have a tenner on the favourite (… fair enough this year) and celebrate if it wins with a massive bit of chang acquired with the profits. We know what’s up.
However, there are some Internet luminaries that I tend to turn to for the Grand National. Well, I say some, I mean two luminaries. (Plus myself, but in no way am I a luminary!) And conveniently, they can both be found in the most unfashionable of online backwaters…
For it is time for a confession. I am, for many sins in a past life, a Charlton Athletic fan – and a pretty devoted one at that. And it is on the Charlton Life football forum that the greatest of all Grand National gurus resides. His name is PeanutsMolloy, and he seemingly spends his entire year in front of spreadsheets, form guides, race replays, and joins the infinite dots to create a clear picture of the GN. Imagine Charlie from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but accurate:
“But just LOOK at Double Honour’s 2005 run until he unseated, and…”
Please find the thread here, as it’s genuinely wonderful reading.
The second luminary on that board is a different prospect altogether. I’ve never seen him post anything about football, and I genuinely think he just uses Charlton Life as an outlet for horse racing. The various posters do offer some fantastic insight by and large, but when someone’s on there only to talk about having a lash on handicaps, you pay attention. That man is PolzeathNick, who – unless I’m sorely mistaken – probably is the owner of the Polzeath Ratings blog. He doesn’t post much, but it’s definitely worth a follow here.
But that’s enough of that. Sung praises are all very well and good but let’s get to the meat. I must confess I’m following the thread pretty religiously, as my only thoughts would have been Baie Des Iles until scratched, and Rock The Kasbah is hardly original tipping material. Let’s get to the contenders I’ll be advising, and all credit to Charlton Life if we get returns:
Ramses De Teillee @ 28/1 – 0.75pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-6). Peanuts’ explanation is on P6 of the thread. Read it.
General Principle @ 50/1 – 0.5pts e/w (generally 1/5 1-6). Explanation on P6 as well.
Jury Duty @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral, Betfred, Black Type, 1/5 1-6). PolzeathNick’s got a good preview on P5.
All of these guys have live chances. Let’s hope we get ours by around 5.45pm today!
Comments
Absolutely no idea why.
I know less about horse racing than Roland does about running a football club.
SUMMARY ROI +0.29%
Returning bets: 11/58
Strike Rate: 18.97%
Wins/Places: 4/7
£610 / 61pts staked
£611.75 / 61.175pts returned
+ £1.75 / +0.175pts overall
Full results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yoGvnj6sgmsU7vVEqtM67Q5cGLwOE-mNRoKySA1O5b0/edit?usp=sharing
https://twitter.com/ValueBurglar
1. Tiger Roll
2. Anibale Fly
3. Ramses De Teillee
4. Jury Duty
5. Rathvinden
6. Dounikos
Spotlight naps Joe Farrell
Apple's Jade in the stayers.
Goimg to ride quicker still tomorrow - effectively mix of GS and Good.
Promotes Vintage Clouds' and Joe Farrell's chances (and Singlefarmpayment's of placing).
Not helpful for Ramses De Teillee or General Principle but certainly doesn't rule them out.
However I like to try to pick (unsuccessfully generally) some of my own too.
Therefore horses to avoid:
Go Conquer
Jury Duty
Captain Redbeard
I have accepted @bobmunro's kind offer of 10 places on these three and if one comes in costs are covered.
PS you and @Len\'s_little_girl do pretty damn well without any help from me.
Best of luck.
Ramses De Teillee
Vintage Clouds
Rock The Kasbah
General Principle
Joe Farrell
I've put a saver - hopefully - on Tiger Roll, and a couple of quid on Bless The Wings (one of my favourite horses, sentimental), but they don't quite count in terms of actual betting!
Tips for the rest of the card (which ain't great) to follow. Good luck one and all!
1. RDT: 33-1
2. General Principle: 33-1
3. Joe Farrell: 50-1
4. Single farm payment: 50-1
5. Folsom Blue: 50-1
6. Bless the wings: 150-1........all each way, 5 or 6 places
No question that, despite the going starting Soft yesterday morning, it was genuine Good to Soft by 4pm for the Topham.
Watering just the landing areas means that it is definitely going to ride quick-ish by 5.15pm - no doubt the official going will remain "Good to Soft".
As said yesterday, that's not the best news for RDT or General Principle (among others) but certainly doesn't rule them out as regards their stat-profiles. But it's excellent news for Vintage Clouds and Joe Farrell (among others, including the bonkers Singlefarmpayment - still available at 66/1).
And here's a little factlet for you to chew on, given that 5 of the top 6 in the market are Irish-trained:
Since 2013 (when fence and distance alterations took effect), there have been 4 GNs run on GS or quicker (as today) and 2 run on Soft or softer:
First 6 home in terms of where trained:
- Of 12 finishing 1~6 on Sft/Hvy: 10 Irish [83% from 39% of runners] (incl both winners), 2 Brit [17% from 61% of runners]
Clearly, on decent ground it's broadly gone with representation. On Soft~Hvy, the Irish have big advantage.Sheer weight of numbers may tell in favour of the Irish today. Even excl the 2 sold on Thursday, Irish-trained runners are 45% of the field today (the highest % in living memory, possibly ever). So they clearly have a great chance of grabbing the prize despite the going not playing to their particular strength.
Nonetheless, though the Irish have had 4 runners-up, all 9 GNs from 2008 run on Good or GS were won by British-trained horses (and arguably it was misfortune that prevented a Brit winner in 2007).
Perhaps there are some over-priced opportunities among the home team.
PS. Unibet offering 7 places
1.45- Nestor Park- EW
2.25- Brewinupastorm
3.00- Lalor
3.40- Apples Jade
4.20- Kildisart EW
5.15- Vintage Clouds EW
Joe Farrell EW
Minella Rocco EW
Captain Redbeard EW
6.20- Nietzsche EW
Yankee EW
Brewinupastorm
Apples Jade
Kildisart
Nietzsche
Grand National Preview
Here we go. One of my favourite days in the sporting calendar. This is The Big One. I’ll be having a bet; you’ll be having a bet; the postman will have a tip; your nan will pick one on the colours for 50p each way; Big Dave down the pub will have a tenner on the favourite (… fair enough this year) and celebrate if it wins with a massive bit of chang acquired with the profits. We know what’s up.
However, there are some Internet luminaries that I tend to turn to for the Grand National. Well, I say some, I mean two luminaries. (Plus myself, but in no way am I a luminary!) And conveniently, they can both be found in the most unfashionable of online backwaters…
For it is time for a confession. I am, for many sins in a past life, a Charlton Athletic fan – and a pretty devoted one at that. And it is on the Charlton Life football forum that the greatest of all Grand National gurus resides. His name is PeanutsMolloy, and he seemingly spends his entire year in front of spreadsheets, form guides, race replays, and joins the infinite dots to create a clear picture of the GN. Imagine Charlie from It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but accurate:
Please find the thread here, as it’s genuinely wonderful reading.
The second luminary on that board is a different prospect altogether. I’ve never seen him post anything about football, and I genuinely think he just uses Charlton Life as an outlet for horse racing. The various posters do offer some fantastic insight by and large, but when someone’s on there only to talk about having a lash on handicaps, you pay attention. That man is PolzeathNick, who – unless I’m sorely mistaken – probably is the owner of the Polzeath Ratings blog. He doesn’t post much, but it’s definitely worth a follow here.
But that’s enough of that. Sung praises are all very well and good but let’s get to the meat. I must confess I’m following the thread pretty religiously, as my only thoughts would have been Baie Des Iles until scratched, and Rock The Kasbah is hardly original tipping material. Let’s get to the contenders I’ll be advising, and all credit to Charlton Life if we get returns:
Ramses De Teillee @ 28/1 – 0.75pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-6). Peanuts’ explanation is on P6 of the thread. Read it.
General Principle @ 50/1 – 0.5pts e/w (generally 1/5 1-6). Explanation on P6 as well.
Jury Duty @ 16/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Coral, Betfred, Black Type, 1/5 1-6). PolzeathNick’s got a good preview on P5.
All of these guys have live chances. Let’s hope we get ours by around 5.45pm today!
Vintage Clouds
Joe Farrell
Singlefarmpayments
General Principle
Annibelle Fly
Ramses de Teillee
😀
Ps. Thanks @PeanutsMolloy
Very funny @PaddyP17
Cheers
I have to confess, there's more than a little trepidation about my new model's debut but hey ho - let's see.