Taking value is what causes you to have your stake limited, regardless of winning and losing. Regularly betting purely on boosts, free bet offers etc is the way to get restricted swiftly!
Agreed. It's not winning or losing, it's about your betting pattern/choices.
I only bet on English horse racing and football. The Grand National is the only race i bet each way.
I never said it's just filthy each-way!
English horse racing covers a pretty wide area. All forms of horseracing, or any particular type (Maiden 2-y-o, Novice Hurdles/Chases), any particular trainer? Backing before big moves on the exchanges or when the price is out of line with the exchanges (exchange ARB)? Do you usually beat SP? Any particular tipping lines? Do you follow a staking pattern? Do you only bet on 'live' horses?
I just have a look in a newspaper in the morning and pick out what i fancy. Then look on Oddschecker to see who is giving the best price. Stakes vary between £20 - £100. I don't follow any particular jockey or trainer and definitely no tipsters. Bookmakers must know the vast majority of regular punters will lose long term so i don't see what they are worried about. I have been messed about by so many bookmakers i don't use them now. I get better odds with an exchange and they have never refused to accept any of my bets.
Don Poli sold for 170k!!! That is ludicrous lol, he's a 10 year old gelding who's surely peaked!!!
Why are people giving O'Leary even more money?!
Couple of vintage race wins possibly chance of having a runner in the national does seem crazy money though, then will he sent point to point likely its a bit more competitive in Ireland as full time trainers are allowed to train the horses, where as uk it’s amateurs only.
mall dini out now has my runners and riders in gn down to 6, a lot on at better than current market prices
ramse de telles lakeview lad vintage clouds step back anniable fly joe farrell
for today i've only had small bets as massive fields and not as classy card as yesterday; 1.50 sternrubin ew admiral barraty ew 2.20 felix dejsy 2.50 lostintranslation ( expect topofthegame to win but odds on which i don't back ) 3.25 top notch 4.05 cadmium ew peregrine run ew 4.40 dallas des pictons ardlethen ew 5.15 master debonair
Good luck before I read this I added a small EW Don Poli, also some on Anibale Fly for the National
E/w punt at 100/1 on a former Gr 1 winner? Why not? ............Foinavon, Mon Mome. Good luck Chief. May have a nibble at 100/1 (6 pl) for Bless The Wings for old times' sake myself - clearly long in the tooth but a tad overpriced if you ask me (not too shabby a run in penultimate XC on decent-ish ground, back in December, notching a higher RPR than when 3rd last year). I know it's not about the numbers and the jerk-off value of a GN runner is massive (at least for some) but £170k down for a shot at the prize pot? You could argue O'Leary's effectively laid both Don Poli and Outlander at odds akin to Tiger Roll's.
I did think of Bless the Wings too, was going to do both just wasn't sure if being overly optimistic
Price boost with WH to 117/1 - for 6 places that'll do me. Handles the fences, handles a range of ground (but best RPRs notched on GS - likely to get), age against stats-wise but it's more than discounted in the price IMHO. Decent run in December XC (a handicap) under top-weight. Not a major worry about his PU at level weights at the Festival - going respectably enough before an uncharacteristic blunder at 21st - rightly looked after. Could be a damp squib tomorrow but if he avoids trouble, no reason he can't run be in the shake up for the places with just 10.03 to carry.
Light shower
this morning in Liverpool. That's due to be it as regards forecast rainfall
before the Off tomorrow. Cloudy and breezy today but sunny intervals increasing, especially tomorrow.
Officially Soft this morning on all 3 courses (awaiting a
Going Stick reading). Will be interesting to see how well it rides in the
Topham at 4.05pm, with some fresh ground made available (as there will be tomorrow). I suspect by then it could be broadly as yesterday
– a mix of Soft and GS.
Did a mini brainstorm for the 2.20, which is a tricky little race, but I think I've sorted the form lines in settling on Itchy Feet:
Can put paid to Felix Desjy and Aramon via Supreme; and Southfield Stone via a weird Elixir De Nutz/Angels Breath form line.
Precious Cargo could be anything so I'm loathe to back at the odds; Winston C hasn't beaten much; Rouge Vif behind Mister Fisher on form lines thereby making IF better via Supreme; massive step up for Sofia's Rock.
Rouge Vif, Sofia's Rock could be each way filth though.
------------------------------
ProfProfitable on the other hand is more bullish:
Today is quite simple for me. Follow Nicholls & Cobden. First two races are a tough call. Brio Conti repeating last months performance will be good enough to place with 6 places. The Betway hurdle is very competitive. I’ve backed Aramon but I think Southfield Stone as the freshest of these has serious place/win claims at 6/1. TOTG & Politilogue is the double for the day - no idea why WP is ahead of Politilogue in the betting. Adrien Du Pont schooled the national fence last week and looked sick - he has a big chance and at 6 places he is one for on the nose and in EW acca’s. Avoiding the doom bar and NHF race which I think Santa Rossa will win.
Did a mini brainstorm for the 2.20, which is a tricky little race, but I think I've sorted the form lines in settling on Itchy Feet:
Can put paid to Felix Desjy and Aramon via Supreme; and Southfield Stone via a weird Elixir De Nutz/Angels Breath form line.
Precious Cargo could be anything so I'm loathe to back at the odds; Winston C hasn't beaten much; Rouge Vif behind Mister Fisher on form lines thereby making IF better via Supreme; massive step up for Sofia's Rock.
Rouge Vif, Sofia's Rock could be each way filth though.
------------------------------
ProfProfitable on the other hand is more bullish:
TOTG & Politilogue is the double for the day - no idea why WP is ahead of Politilogue in the betting. Adrien Du Pont schooled the national fence last week and looked sick - he has a big chance and at 6 places he is one for on the nose and in EW acca’s. Avoiding the doom bar and NHF race which I think Santa Rossa will win.
TOTG & Politilogue + Itchy feet is 40/1 enhanced on Skybet FYI - I have put a 5er on it
1345 - Hills are paying 7 places so have gone to war with a few in this. BRIO CONTI the obvious one after running well in the Coral Cup, looks a potential Grade 1 horse down the line. KNIGHT IN DUBAI another one from that Coral Cup (hot race klaxon). At bigger prices really keen on ADMIRAL BARRATRY who is being tried with first time cheekpieces. Soft ground and a flat track is what he wants, and they punted the ears off him at Sandown last time when he was 6th in the EBF Final. Final one is JOKE DANCER who steps up in trip but went off short price for a hot handicap last time, but didn't handle the quick ground that day, back on soft and hope he comes good.
1420 - I struggle to think of a race I less want to have a bet in than this one.
1450 - Topofthegame is awesome, but quite interested in MR WHIPPED. Only 7 runners though so letting it go.
1525 - I love HELLS KITCHEN, but the fav is going to be savagely hard to beat here on soft ground.
1605 - few places paying first 6 here. BIGMARTRE my main fancy, he's down to 142, and whilst he hasn't set the world on fire recently he's run ok. Think he needs a flat track, and as a front runner this should suit. It's all down to whether he takes to the fences but at 40/1 it's cheap to find out. FLYING ANGEL and ACTIVIAL the other two I like who come from finishing 5th and 6th in the Ultima (another hot race klaxon).
1640 - Won't be having a bet, but interested to see how DOWNTOWN GETAWAY goes as a long term staying chaser project.
1715 - Tizzards supposedly love MASTER DEBONAIR. Stable didn't really fire at Cheltenham, but he previously beat the Champion Bumper 3rd. The Glancing Queen has already franked the form of that race and he looks one to be on here.
Going Stick reading for GN course at 11am was 5.2. Certainly consistent with Soft but far from desperate. If forecast is right, still anticipating Topham time to reflect Soft/GS combo and no worse than Good to Soft by 5.15pm tomorrow.
They are paying first 6 places, so worth checking with their support (have fun with that!).
There are no regulations on place terms. The standard would be 1/4 first 4, but with competition they are all trying to outdo each other. Should be 1/5 first 6 with that lot.
Comments
Why are people giving O'Leary even more money?!
Do what your nan does everyone, find a name you like and enjoy the race 👍🏻
Come on Rock the Kasbah and Up for review!
but thanks for the thought
Another berk pissed 165 large away on Outlander
Elliott down to a mere 11 runners
1.45- Tedham
2.20- Precious Cargo
2.50- Topofthegame
3.25- Politologue
4.05- O O Seven EW & DoItfortheVillage EW
4.40- Walk Away EW
5.15- Master Debonair EW
EW Yankee bet
Topofthegame
Politologue
Tedham
Master Debonnair
Lucky 15:
Brio Conti - 145
Itchy Feet- 220
Min- 325
Walk Away 440
Good luck before I read this I added a small EW Don Poli, also some on Anibale Fly for the National
ramse de telles
lakeview lad
vintage clouds
step back
anniable fly
joe farrell
for today i've only had small bets as massive fields and not as classy card as yesterday;
1.50 sternrubin ew
admiral barraty ew
2.20 felix dejsy
2.50 lostintranslation ( expect topofthegame to win but odds on which i don't back )
3.25 top notch
4.05 cadmium ew
peregrine run ew
4.40 dallas des pictons
ardlethen ew
5.15 master debonair
Currently for the main one I am on:
Rathvinden @ 10
Joe Farrell @18 EW
Don Poli @ 100ew
Anibale Fly @ 12/1
May have a nibble at 100/1 (6 pl) for Bless The Wings for old times' sake myself - clearly long in the tooth but a tad overpriced if you ask me (not too shabby a run in penultimate XC on decent-ish ground, back in December, notching a higher RPR than when 3rd last year).
I know it's not about the numbers and the jerk-off value of a GN runner is massive (at least for some) but £170k down for a shot at the prize pot?
You could argue O'Leary's effectively laid both Don Poli and Outlander at odds akin to Tiger Roll's.
Grand National Prize Money Placements
1st £561,300
2nd £211,100
3rd £105,500
4th £52,700
5th £26,500
6th £13,200
7th £6,800
8th £3,600
9th £2,000
10th £1,000
Winner and non-runner yesterday from two bets - so flying high!!
Today's picks:
1.45 Mont Des Avaloirs
2.20 Itchy Feet
2.50 Topofthegame
3.25 Waiting Patiently
4.05 Ballyhill
4.40 Downtown Getaway
5.15 McFabulous
Handles the fences, handles a range of ground (but best RPRs notched on GS - likely to get), age against stats-wise but it's more than discounted in the price IMHO. Decent run in December XC (a handicap) under top-weight. Not a major worry about his PU at level weights at the Festival - going respectably enough before an uncharacteristic blunder at 21st - rightly looked after.
Could be a damp squib tomorrow but if he avoids trouble, no reason he can't run be in the shake up for the places with just 10.03 to carry.
Light shower this morning in Liverpool. That's due to be it as regards forecast rainfall before the Off tomorrow. Cloudy and breezy today but sunny intervals increasing, especially tomorrow.
Officially Soft this morning on all 3 courses (awaiting a Going Stick reading). Will be interesting to see how well it rides in the Topham at 4.05pm, with some fresh ground made available (as there will be tomorrow). I suspect by then it could be broadly as yesterday – a mix of Soft and GS.
Did a mini brainstorm for the 2.20, which is a tricky little race, but I think I've sorted the form lines in settling on Itchy Feet:
Can put paid to Felix Desjy and Aramon via Supreme; and Southfield Stone via a weird Elixir De Nutz/Angels Breath form line.
Precious Cargo could be anything so I'm loathe to back at the odds; Winston C hasn't beaten much; Rouge Vif behind Mister Fisher on form lines thereby making IF better via Supreme; massive step up for Sofia's Rock.
Rouge Vif, Sofia's Rock could be each way filth though.
------------------------------
ProfProfitable on the other hand is more bullish:
Today is quite simple for me. Follow Nicholls & Cobden. First two races are a tough call. Brio Conti repeating last months performance will be good enough to place with 6 places. The Betway hurdle is very competitive. I’ve backed Aramon but I think Southfield Stone as the freshest of these has serious place/win claims at 6/1. TOTG & Politilogue is the double for the day - no idea why WP is ahead of Politilogue in the betting. Adrien Du Pont schooled the national fence last week and looked sick - he has a big chance and at 6 places he is one for on the nose and in EW acca’s. Avoiding the doom bar and NHF race which I think Santa Rossa will win.
16.05 - Adrien Du Pont
16.40 - Dallas Des Pictons
17.15 - Mcfabulous
Done as a 4 horse e/w acca
14.50 - Topofthegame
15.15 - Two Hoots (Sedgefield)
15.25 - Politologue
15.05 - Janika
Done as a 5 horse e/w acca
PaddyP17 said: My thoughts for the day.
https://twitter.com/ValueBurglar/status/1114101652552933377
https://twitter.com/ValueBurglar/status/1114103875403956224
Did a mini brainstorm for the 2.20, which is a tricky little race, but I think I've sorted the form lines in settling on Itchy Feet:
Can put paid to Felix Desjy and Aramon via Supreme; and Southfield Stone via a weird Elixir De Nutz/Angels Breath form line.
Precious Cargo could be anything so I'm loathe to back at the odds; Winston C hasn't beaten much; Rouge Vif behind Mister Fisher on form lines thereby making IF better via Supreme; massive step up for Sofia's Rock.
Rouge Vif, Sofia's Rock could be each way filth though.
------------------------------
ProfProfitable on the other hand is more bullish:
TOTG & Politilogue is the double for the day - no idea why WP is ahead of Politilogue in the betting. Adrien Du Pont schooled the national fence last week and looked sick - he has a big chance and at 6 places he is one for on the nose and in EW acca’s. Avoiding the doom bar and NHF race which I think Santa Rossa will win.
TOTG & Politilogue + Itchy feet is 40/1 enhanced on Skybet FYI - I have put a 5er on it
1420 - I struggle to think of a race I less want to have a bet in than this one.
1450 - Topofthegame is awesome, but quite interested in MR WHIPPED. Only 7 runners though so letting it go.
1525 - I love HELLS KITCHEN, but the fav is going to be savagely hard to beat here on soft ground.
1605 - few places paying first 6 here. BIGMARTRE my main fancy, he's down to 142, and whilst he hasn't set the world on fire recently he's run ok. Think he needs a flat track, and as a front runner this should suit. It's all down to whether he takes to the fences but at 40/1 it's cheap to find out. FLYING ANGEL and ACTIVIAL the other two I like who come from finishing 5th and 6th in the Ultima (another hot race klaxon).
1640 - Won't be having a bet, but interested to see how DOWNTOWN GETAWAY goes as a long term staying chaser project.
1715 - Tizzards supposedly love MASTER DEBONAIR. Stable didn't really fire at Cheltenham, but he previously beat the Champion Bumper 3rd. The Glancing Queen has already franked the form of that race and he looks one to be on here.
Done 12 ew doubles across the 1345 and 1605 too!
If forecast is right, still anticipating Topham time to reflect Soft/GS combo and no worse than Good to Soft by 5.15pm tomorrow.
And anyone else - my mate's just bet on the Grand National, and has got terrible terms of 1/5 odds for FOUR places!
Am I right in thinking this goes against regulations? Or downright isn't allowed?
There are no regulations on place terms. The standard would be 1/4 first 4, but with competition they are all trying to outdo each other. Should be 1/5 first 6 with that lot.
Dallas Des Pictons @ 9/2
Politologue @ 5/2
Lostintranslation @ 10/3
Precious Cargo @ 4/1
Canardier @ 8/1