I'm really sorry @PeanutsMolloy but what is your final conclusion for the big one today. I've trawled through this thread but it is so much more than it used to be with the whole Aintree festival covered.
I'm really sorry @PeanutsMolloy but what is your final conclusion for the big one today. I've trawled through this thread but it is so much more than it used to be with the whole Aintree festival covered.
No worries @Riviera . My (new) model gives top-ratings to the following on Good to Soft or better. It is very likely to ride effectively as Good ground IMO, despite the official description no doubt remaining Good To Soft (maybe acknowledging Good places) but I'm expecting a time around or slightly faster than standard (9m 4s). So, as an overlay to my model's ratings, I've added a + or - based on my view of whether the runner would be better-suited by quick ground (+) or genuine GS (-):
5 with Winning Profiles:
[those in bold are on my betting slip e/w 6 places]
· Tiger Roll (can't back him at the price)
· Ramses De Teillee(-) (33/1)
· General Principle(-) (33/1)
· Vintage Clouds(+) (14/1)
· Anibale Fly (mix of 10/1 with 50% stake refund & 14/1)
4 with Strong Place Potential (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my nose fancies them):
· Joe Farrell (+) (50/1)
· Rathvinden
· Ballyoptic (+)
· Walk In The Mill
About 10 runners have profiles which are consistent (on GS or better) with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty, Pleasant Company and Rock The Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:
· Singlefarmpayment(+) (66/1)
· Regal Encore (80/1)
· Ultragold (66/1)
· Folsom Blue (80/1)
· Warriors Tale (80/1)
· A Toi Phil (80/1)
PS Also had a nibble for old times sake of Bless The Wings at a boosted 117/1 for 6 places. So-so rating by the model and clearly long in the tooth but was a tad overpriced (not too shabby a run with top-weight in penultimate XC on decent-ish ground, back in December, notching a higher RPR than when 3rd last year).
Tiger Roll is about 7-2 favourite for the four-and-a-quarter-mile race and if he triumphs again, could be the shortest-priced winner since Poethlyn (11-4) 100 years ago.
I've found it difficult to follow this thread and I appear to have place bets on 10 horses including 'Don't tell the Missus' and 'that's a ton down the drain'
11am Turftrax map shows GN course GS with a number of Good places already (Going Stick 6.4). For comparison, G-Stick reading was 6.6 (i.e. slightly better ground) at 11am in both 2015 (GN run at 4.15pm) and 2017 (5.15pm) - also fine, sunny days and both saw times faster than standard. Likely to be close to that again today.
Vintage clouds and Rock the Kasbah for me. Also had ew on Singlefarmpayment and Ultragold. I would like to see Tiger roll win so debating with myself to put some on now at 5/1 or wait
Joe Farrel and Lake View Lad for Me... @PeanutsMolloy how do you rate the latter?
LVL's rated by my model in the group of about 10 runners as having Minor Place Potential (i.e. potentially big run but (probably) no cigar).
Pros (there's plenty to like):
excellent 80% strike (win/near-miss) rate in 5 chases at 24f+
excellent 83% making-the-frame in 12 chases (all distances)
good jumping record
fine prep
3 wins/near-misses from 3 runs in season
breeding promising (by Oscar, dam-sire Supreme Leader - same as Oscar Time, GN 2nd and 4th), though no prominent stayers in dam's family
Cons:
no win/near-miss beyond 25f
3lbs "well-in" on official mark but my model considers 11.01 a nadge too much for a runner with no form at 26f+ (though only 1 run at 26f)
Wouldn't discourage you @CAFCsayer just because my model doesn't reckon he'll get his nut in front. Could run a massive race and finish in the money.
A light-hearted concern is the bad luck that his jockey (Henry Brooke) seems to encounter in the GN. He's ridden Highland Lodge to win, 2nd and 3rd in the Becher Chase but chuck in an extra 3/4 circuit and the bloke has an unbelievable "knack" for getting interfered with by loose horses, getting virtually carried out twice at the same place, heading out onto the 2nd circuit, on Across The Bay (2013 and 2014) when going well:
2013: "led .... carried wide by loose horse and headed after 16th (water)"
2014: "led .... carried very wide by loose horse on bend after 16th (water), no chance after"
2016 on Aachen: "led, hampered by loose horse before 13th, headed..., lost place...., behind when pulled up before 22nd"
I’ve followed Peanuts tips, plus Lake View Lad, partly on the highly scientific principal of the name and partly because he’s a grey and my dear old Grandad always backed the grey horse (we have 3 in there this year).
Mrs is Rathvinden, Jury Duty and Bless the Wings. I’ll add she’s backed the winner 3 years running. No system, just names.
2.50 e/w on the lot. Hopefully at least enough for a crate of beer at the end of the day, but really it’s just a bit of fun and the only bets we place in a year.
Just watching recorded Virtual GN. I know it will probably happen now but how the f**k do they reckon Ultragold falls at the first? Actual record over the GN fences: 1213
I'm going to follow the match thread now and then watch the race after. Been a great thread this . Many thanks Peanuts and all other contributers. Good luck all later.
Good luck @PeanutsMolloy thank you for once again being such an engaging captain of this ship (ably assisted by a number of other great contributors). Hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as the rest of us.
Hope Mrs Molloy gets to go on the QE2 to St Lucia and not the A2 to Gravesend
Comments
2018: Tiger Roll
2012: Neptune Collonges
2011: Ballabriggs
Tiger Roll
Ramses De Teillee
Joe Farrell
Minella Rocco
Ballyoptic
Walk In The Mill
Not a bad slip that
Best of lluck Chief
It is very likely to ride effectively as Good ground IMO, despite the official description no doubt remaining Good To Soft (maybe acknowledging Good places) but I'm expecting a time around or slightly faster than standard (9m 4s). So, as an overlay to my model's ratings, I've added a + or - based on my view of whether the runner would be better-suited by quick ground (+) or genuine GS (-):
5 with Winning Profiles:
[those in bold are on my betting slip e/w 6 places]
· Tiger Roll (can't back him at the price)
· Ramses De Teillee (-) (33/1)
· General Principle (-) (33/1)
· Vintage Clouds (+) (14/1)
· Anibale Fly (mix of 10/1 with 50% stake refund & 14/1)
4 with Strong Place Potential (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my nose fancies them):
· Joe Farrell (+) (50/1)
· Rathvinden
· Ballyoptic (+)
· Walk In The Mill
About 10 runners have profiles which are consistent (on GS or better) with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty, Pleasant Company and Rock The Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:
· Singlefarmpayment (+) (66/1)
· Regal Encore (80/1)
· Ultragold (66/1)
· Folsom Blue (80/1)
· Warriors Tale (80/1)
· A Toi Phil (80/1)
PS Also had a nibble for old times sake of Bless The Wings at a boosted 117/1 for 6 places. So-so rating by the model and clearly long in the tooth but was a tad overpriced (not too shabby a run with top-weight in penultimate XC on decent-ish ground, back in December, notching a higher RPR than when 3rd last year).
Fingers crossed.
Anibale Fly
Ramses d T
Walk in the Mill (for Mrs M)
The lowest was 2 in 1928 when Tipperary Tim won at 100/1.
Tipperary Tim, 1928
Gregalach 1929
Caughoo 1947
Foinavon 1967
Mon Mome 2009.
5 winners of GN at 100/1 since 1839.
When Lottery won the first race and Captain Becher fell at a jump over a small stream.
For comparison, G-Stick reading was 6.6 (i.e. slightly better ground) at 11am in both 2015 (GN run at 4.15pm) and 2017 (5.15pm) - also fine, sunny days and both saw times faster than standard.
Likely to be close to that again today.
I would like to see Tiger roll win so debating with myself to put some on now at 5/1 or wait
Pros (there's plenty to like):
- excellent 80% strike (win/near-miss) rate in 5 chases at 24f+
- excellent 83% making-the-frame in 12 chases (all distances)
- good jumping record
- fine prep
- 3 wins/near-misses from 3 runs in season
- breeding promising (by Oscar, dam-sire Supreme Leader - same as Oscar Time, GN 2nd and 4th), though no prominent stayers in dam's family
Cons:- no win/near-miss beyond 25f
- 3lbs "well-in" on official mark but my model considers 11.01 a nadge too much for a runner with no form at 26f+ (though only 1 run at 26f)
Wouldn't discourage you @CAFCsayer just because my model doesn't reckon he'll get his nut in front. Could run a massive race and finish in the money.A light-hearted concern is the bad luck that his jockey (Henry Brooke) seems to encounter in the GN. He's ridden Highland Lodge to win, 2nd and 3rd in the Becher Chase but chuck in an extra 3/4 circuit and the bloke has an unbelievable "knack" for getting interfered with by loose horses, getting virtually carried out twice at the same place, heading out onto the 2nd circuit, on Across The Bay (2013 and 2014) when going well:
- 2013: "led .... carried wide by loose horse and headed after 16th (water)"
- 2014: "led .... carried very wide by loose horse on bend after 16th (water), no chance after"
- 2016 on Aachen: "led, hampered by loose horse before 13th, headed..., lost place...., behind when pulled up before 22nd"
Bizarre.on to a winner
Mrs is Rathvinden, Jury Duty and Bless the Wings. I’ll add she’s backed the winner 3 years running. No system, just names.
2.50 e/w on the lot. Hopefully at least enough for a crate of beer at the end of the day, but really it’s just a bit of fun and the only bets we place in a year.
LiveLoveLaugh
SingleFarmPayment
Vintage clouds
Joe Farrell
General Principle
Ramses de Teillee
Anibale Fly
have actually got SFP and Joe Farrel twice as accidentally did to win originally and had to do again at E/W
Noble Endeavour
Singlefarmpayment
Up for review
i think the most likely winner is Vintage Clouds but he's just a bit too short for me.
Gotta go to an actual bookies for those cause I, er, don’t bet online...
Jury Duty
Pleasant Company
Great thread as always Peanuts, btw, any early tips for next year...
I know it will probably happen now but how the f**k do they reckon Ultragold falls at the first? Actual record over the GN fences: 1213
Been a great thread this .
Many thanks Peanuts and all other contributers.
Good luck all later.
Hope Mrs Molloy gets to go on the QE2 to St Lucia and not the A2 to Gravesend