Had Tiger Roll £2.50 e/w (betting slip shows €1.25). Took sp with William Hill. Tv had it at 4-1 do I'm assuming that's £6.
Also had Livelovelaugh too.....but not sure where he finished as I think WH pay top 6.
Unless I am mistaken, are you the financial adviser chap? Why E/W on a 4/1 shot?
To be fair to @golfaddick Tiger Roll went out to 9/2 just before the race. Not a massive potential each way profit if it was placed rather than won but a profit nevertheless.
Pretty much all bookies are 1/5 of the odds, so 9/2 place would be a small loss.
Had Tiger Roll £2.50 e/w (betting slip shows €1.25). Took sp with William Hill. Tv had it at 4-1 do I'm assuming that's £6.
Also had Livelovelaugh too.....but not sure where he finished as I think WH pay top 6.
Unless I am mistaken, are you the financial adviser chap? Why E/W on a 4/1 shot?
Because I know nothing about horse racing & didn't even look at the odds. Just heard he was one of the favourites & with The Masters next week thought a horse with the word Tiger in its name was a bit of a give a way.
Also, being the GN he was as likely to fall at the first as to win it.
And I realise now, being a financial adviser, that I in fact won £5 & not £6. So got my stake money back & that's it.
You should have received something for the win element of your bet too.
Had Tiger Roll £2.50 e/w (betting slip shows €1.25). Took sp with William Hill. Tv had it at 4-1 do I'm assuming that's £6.
Also had Livelovelaugh too.....but not sure where he finished as I think WH pay top 6.
Unless I am mistaken, are you the financial adviser chap? Why E/W on a 4/1 shot?
Because I know nothing about horse racing & didn't even look at the odds. Just heard he was one of the favourites & with The Masters next week thought a horse with the word Tiger in its name was a bit of a give a way.
Also, being the GN he was as likely to fall at the first as to win it.
And I realise now, being a financial adviser, that I in fact won £5 & not £6. So got my stake money back & that's it.
You should have received something for the win element of your bet too.
As I've said, I have no idea about horserace betting & not been back to William Hills to collect my winnings so no idea what I've actually won.
I staked £5 in total. 2 horses, so £2.50 on each. Betting slip shows £1.25 on both so I assume the stake was halved because it was an e/w bet.
All I know is that is the first time in over 30 years that I've actually won anything. Only bet about 5 times in all that time mind. Last time a few years ago I didn't realise that betting tax had been abolished.
Had Tiger Roll £2.50 e/w (betting slip shows €1.25). Took sp with William Hill. Tv had it at 4-1 do I'm assuming that's £6.
Also had Livelovelaugh too.....but not sure where he finished as I think WH pay top 6.
Unless I am mistaken, are you the financial adviser chap? Why E/W on a 4/1 shot?
To be fair to @golfaddick Tiger Roll went out to 9/2 just before the race. Not a massive potential each way profit if it was placed rather than won but a profit nevertheless.
Pretty much all bookies are 1/5 of the odds, so 9/2 place would be a small loss.
I had 1/4 myself with Bob's lot so thought others would be similar.
As Tiger Roll won he should be up overall but I agree that with odds of 1/5 9/2 would mean a loss for place only.
Never believe a word that bloke says but do hope for once he speaks the truth. Certainly don't want to see Rummys record and definitely not to a horse associated to him!
Had Tiger Roll £2.50 e/w (betting slip shows €1.25). Took sp with William Hill. Tv had it at 4-1 do I'm assuming that's £6.
Also had Livelovelaugh too.....but not sure where he finished as I think WH pay top 6.
Unless I am mistaken, are you the financial adviser chap? Why E/W on a 4/1 shot?
Because I know nothing about horse racing & didn't even look at the odds. Just heard he was one of the favourites & with The Masters next week thought a horse with the word Tiger in its name was a bit of a give a way.
Also, being the GN he was as likely to fall at the first as to win it.
And I realise now, being a financial adviser, that I in fact won £5 & not £6. So got my stake money back & that's it.
It's horse racing and not an episode of Midsomer Murders!
Had a short break to clear the head after Saturday’s GN and,
for anyone interested, I’ll post shortly my views of how things went for Mark
II of my GN model, making its debut.
Before that, a couple of thoughts about the race:
I can’t add anything to what’s already been said about the
amazing Tiger Roll. To add back-to-back GNs (one run on Heavy, the other on
Good ground) to his extraordinarily varied record of success is truly
astonishing.
You could not bet against him, even with top-weight, from
making it a hat-trick and I wouldn't presume to take a view on whether or not connections should aim him at that. But like @killer kish I applaud Michael O’Leary's words (if not the man):
"There is no reason to
emulate Red Rum's feat. Red Rum saved the Grand National and put it back on the
map during a time when the race was struggling. Tiger Roll isn't Red Rum, he's
Tiger Roll and I feel no pressure to go back and win it a third time."
On a different subject, sadly, there was another fatality on
the GN course, Up For Review - brought down by
Vintage Clouds, who fell at the first fence.
Every fatality in a race is profoundly sad and regrettable
but the facts are these:
1.
The incident could have happened in any chase on any course.
2. It was the first fatality in 7 GNs since 2012, when the material fence modifications were made.
3.
Of course, that’s nothing to celebrate but the
fact that only 2 of the other 38 runners fell over the remaining 28 fences does confirm the material effect of those changes.
As I’ll point out in the analysis of my model, the effect of
those changes can also be seen in the race result itself. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad
and not complaining, but Magic Of Light absolutely clattered 2 fences, including
the Chair, in a way that would certainly have ended her race in days gone by. Instead
she somehow continued and nearly won the race. She’s certainly not an isolated
example of how those changes have had a material, positive impact on safety and
(with more mixed feelings) on the nature of the test that is the Grand National.
Unfortunately, no credit will be given in the mainstream
press, or among those that wish to see National Hunt racing in general (or at
least its most iconic showpiece) banned, for the positive steps taken to improve
safety in the GN after 2012 and Aintree and the BHA should always been seeking
to find ways to improve safety further that are reasonable and that protect the
integrity of the race.
It may be argued that the next logical step to take to
minimise risk to horses in the GN is to reduce the size of the field from 40.
I can understand the logic of that but, in my view, it would
be a very sad day indeed for staying chasers if there were to be any material
reduction in field size, unless it were accompanied by a stiffer qualification
threshold as regards form at a trip so as to avoid further crowding out top stayers from THE Grand National.
The astronomic growth in prize money has increasingly incentivised connections of horses
with high official ratings derived from 2-3m chases to take their shot at the GN but with
little likelihood of scoring at the 4.25m trip. But the effect has been to crowd out horses that are genuine staying chasers further down the handicap, thereby straining the link between the race and the next tier of “Nationals” below.
To illustrate the point, the lowest OR represented on Saturday was OR142 - Joe Farrell. He was last year’s Scot Nat winner and, despite being +7lb in OR for that victory
at Ayr, only just made the cut at #40.
He ran disappointingly but consider this: At that OR142 cut-off, none of these former GN winners
(from just the previous 12 renewals), with genuine staying credentials, would
have come anywhere near even making the Reserves for Saturday’s race:
·
2013 - Auroras Encore (Scot Nat 2nd) –
OR137
·
2008 - Comply Or Die (Eider Chase winner) – OR139
·
2007 - Silver Birch (Welsh GN and Becher Chase winner)
– OR138
·
2006 - Numbersixvalverde (Irish GN winner) – OR138
And, by the way, Hedgehunter, who carried 11.01 to win the 2005 GN (the first winner to carry 11.00+ since 1988), would have carried 10.04 on
Saturday.
The character of the GN has changed, inevitably, in recent
years, with positive results for safety to be applauded. But a risk-free horserace
(on flat or over jumps) is an impossibility and I sincerely hope that the integrity
of the race is not to be further emasculated in vain pursuit of that, simply in the name of political
correctness.
Unfortunately the Grand National has become just another staying chase. While it is great that horses are no longer at any more risk than in any other jumps race it has to be said that the race is not the spectacle that it once was. I can see its popularity waning in years to come, especially if further modifications are made such as reducing the field size. On another note, as great as Tiger Roll is his achievement in winning back to back Nationals comes nowhere near the achievements of Red Rum, as it was far more difficult to win the race in his day.
Unfortunately the Grand National has become just another staying chase. While it is great that horses are no longer at any more risk than in any other jumps race it has to be said that the race is not the spectacle that it once was. I can see its popularity waning in years to come, especially if further modifications are made such as reducing the field size. On another note, as great as Tiger Roll is his achievement in winning back to back Nationals comes nowhere near the achievements of Red Rum, as it was far more difficult to win the race in his day.
this, when you look at the speed horses now go over the fences it is much easier - i don't like to see horses hurt or die, but it is no longer the same race which it once was, as for the race and visiting it, been there and done it its certainly something i wanted to tick off but do not think i would bother again, have already got my tickets for weds and thurs at cheltenham next year and may take in the dublin racing festival aswell, planning on doing the tingle creek at sandown in december also
Tingle Creek is a good meeting also the final day of the jumps season at Sandown is good. Even though I'm not a flat racing fan I'd like to go to the Arc and Breeders Cup. As regards the National Peanuts is spot on and it is just a top staying handicap chase now. And my rather sad infatuation with Rummy is that yes the National was far harder back in the day so will always put him way above Tiger Roll........ Plus in 1974 Rummy did win the Scottish National straight after winning the National I don't see Tiger Roll turning up next week at Ayr for the Scottish National..........no comparison. Will also add its been a long time in the National that this year you could see who the winner was with a circuit to go
not taking anything away from tiger roll but the love in of Gordan Elliot and the comment of his horses always turn up - absolute rubbish
hardline apples jade delta work battleoverdoyen commander of fleet dallas des pictons
all beaten gigginstown/elliot favourites at cheltenham
a lot argue that the millions pumped into Irish racing by o'leary should be appreciated.
there is a video online of the flight back to Dublin from Liverpool this Saturday and him giving out 2 free drinks, a nice gesture but the flight was delayed by an hour and it cost him max about £1400.00 this is a man that is worth 868 million pounds.
@PeanutsMolloy Thanks for this thread and your picks. I broke even and had a good time doing it!
Some years ago I asked you a boring question (that you kindly said was not boring). It was basically whether your model could ever be over-modified... Say if you adjust it one year based on the results, but the results were because of anomalies, and so your model becomes less accurate. You said that it was not likely since you tried not to include things that were clear anomalies.
As a follow-up, I was just wondering whether you ever run the stats post-race based on older versions of your model, to see how they would have fared? And when you adjust your model do you do it on an exclusionary basis (excluding horses that won't win) or inclusionary, or both?
Forgive the boring questions again. Just find it interesting.
I'm no @PeanutsMolloy but I have never seen so many buckets of water thrown over a horse Before it got back to the winners enclosure. Was that to cool Tiger Roll down ? He was nearly drowned.
Red Rum won his 1st National because Mr Crisp ridden by Richard Pitman was carrying 12 stone and Red Rum 10 stone 5 ! No wonder Red Rum came back from 15 lengths down at the last fence.
By the time Red Rum won his 3rd GN in 1977 his weight was 11st 7. (Still the fastest time?)
As Tiger Roll is a smaller horse than RR, and twice stumbled on the 2nd circuit, with even more weight next year I hope O'Leary is good to his word and doesn't run him.
I'm no @PeanutsMolloy but I have never seen so many buckets of water thrown over a horse Before it got back to the winners enclosure. Was that to cool Tiger Roll down ? He was nearly drowned.
Red Rum won his 1st National because Mr Crisp ridden by Richard Pitman was carrying 12 stone and Red Rum 10 stone 5 ! No wonder Red Rum came back from 15 lengths down at the last fence.
By the time Red Rum won his 3rd GN in 1977 his weight was 11st 7. (Still the fastest time?)
As Tiger Roll is a smaller horse than RR, and twice stumbled on the 2nd circuit, with even more weight next year I hope O'Leary is good to his word and doesn't run him.
Tiger Roll is already a legend.
Crisp has to be the greatest horse never to actually win the Grand National unless anyone else knows different.
I'm no @PeanutsMolloy but I have never seen so many buckets of water thrown over a horse Before it got back to the winners enclosure. Was that to cool Tiger Roll down ? He was nearly drowned.
Red Rum won his 1st National because Mr Crisp ridden by Richard Pitman was carrying 12 stone and Red Rum 10 stone 5 ! No wonder Red Rum came back from 15 lengths down at the last fence.
By the time Red Rum won his 3rd GN in 1977 his weight was 11st 7. (Still the fastest time?)
As Tiger Roll is a smaller horse than RR, and twice stumbled on the 2nd circuit, with even more weight next year I hope O'Leary is good to his word and doesn't run him.
Tiger Roll is already a legend.
Crisp has to be the greatest horse never to actually win the Grand National unless anyone else knows different.
The reason I remember the Mr Crisp v Red Rum race so clearly was not only was it a quick time like all RR winning GN wins but my Dad is now in his 90's and reminds my Mum every year about how his winning bet on Mr Crisp was snatched away by a horse carrying 23 pound less !( He can't remember what he did yesterday though, bless him !)
You are spot on Len about Mr Crisp and I wonder how many times Pitman dreams or has nightmares about the run in of that classic encounter. (Pitman never won the GN)
As Tiger Roll won with 11st 1 this year which was 9 pound higher than last year, would the handicapper give him 11.8 or 11.10 next year if he was to go for the hat trick ?
You have mentioned the fact that a much higher Handicap mark is now required just to get in the race. But what is the trend with the winners Handicap mark as 151 & 159 for the last two years tends to suggest its rising.
I'm guessing that comparing Red Rums handicap marks to Tigers is like comparing Nobby Stiles to Luca Modric?
As regards weight Red Rum had to carry 12stone to victory in 1974 and gave 24lbs to other horses so I wouldn't use the weight as the excuse for Crisp getting beaten. More like Crisp was a 2m-2m4f horse not a 4 mile plus horse so stamina had a lot to do with it plus the jockey going to quick didn't help.
The anti racing crowd are out in force this year moaning about something they know nothing about.
Over the 3 days 308 horses run at aintree - where do you think those would be if not for racing and this is one meeting, there are numerous meetings every day.
I dont like Davy Russel since he punched the horse - which is sick and no need for.
As regards weight Red Rum had to carry 12stone to victory in 1974 and gave 24lbs to other horses so I wouldn't use the weight as the excuse for Crisp getting beaten. More like Crisp was a 2m-2m4f horse not a 4 mile plus horse so stamina had a lot to do with it plus the jockey going to quick didn't help.
As Crisp got round the GN in one of the quickest ever times recorded to finish 2nd how does that make him a 2m 4 furlong horse ? He was beaten by Red Rum who had 23 pound less and was a legend in the making.
@PeanutsMolloy Thanks for this thread and your picks. I broke even and had a good time doing it!
Some years ago I asked you a boring question (that you kindly said was not boring). It was basically whether your model could ever be over-modified... Say if you adjust it one year based on the results, but the results were because of anomalies, and so your model becomes less accurate. You said that it was not likely since you tried not to include things that were clear anomalies.
As a follow-up, I was just wondering whether you ever run the stats post-race based on older versions of your model, to see how they would have fared? And when you adjust your model do you do it on an exclusionary basis (excluding horses that won't win) or inclusionary, or both?
Forgive the boring questions again. Just find it interesting.
Not at all a boring question @Chunes - very pertinent in fact. If you don't mind, as I'm a bit tied up at the moment, I'll answer when I post about how the model actually performed (as opposed to how I translated it to my betting slip!).
It's more pertinent to look at the handicap mark than the weight carried in my view. Tiger Roll has won easily off 159 this year. Would imagine they'll stick him up to something high 160s next year (they tend to compress the top of the handicap, and reckon they'll try and tempt them to go for it....plenty of water to go under the bridge before then).
Was one of the easiest winners I've seen in a long time. Largely stopped watching 6 out, he was going that well. My contrarian slant will always look to take him on though (got one in mind for next year already actually!)
Felt sick for the Wylies losing Up For Review, they really have had a torrid month.
Where the hell did Magic Of Light come from?! Was just about the first one off my shortlist!!
Anyway....Scottish National this weekend, and Irish the weekend after. Got my eye on one for the latter that looks a right plot job (no prizes for guessing who owns that one!)
As Tiger Roll won with 11st 1 this year which was 9 pound higher than last year, would the handicapper give him 11.8 or 11.10 next year if he was to go for the hat trick ?
As PolzeathNick says @soapboxsam, it's the Official Ratings that will dictate the weights to be carried. Depending on whether the likes of Native River or Bristol De Mai are targeted at the race (maybe even if they are, bearing in mind the handicapper has some discretion to tweak the GN handicap marks) he'd very likely be the highest rated entry, in which case he'd carry 11.10.
You have mentioned the fact that a much higher Handicap mark is now required just to get in the race. But what is the trend with the winners Handicap mark as 151 & 159 for the last two years tends to suggest its rising.
I'm guessing that comparing Red Rums handicap marks to Tigers is like comparing Nobby Stiles to Luca Modric?
Here we go @oldbloke - Official Ratings of winners from 2005:
2005: 144 - Hedgehunter (lowest OR in race 134) 2006: 138 - Numbersixvalverde (lowest 134) 2007: 138 - Silver Birch (lowest 134) (but McKelvey lost by 0.75L [OR136]) 2008: 139 - Comply Or Die (lowest 137) 2009: 148 - Mon Mome (lowest 139) 2010: 153 - Don't Push It (lowest 139) 2011: 150 - Ballabriggs (lowest 138) 2012: 157 (compressed 2lbs from 159) - Neptune Collonges (but Sunnyhillboy lost by Nose [OR142]) (lowest 137) 2013: 137 - Auroras Encore (lowest 131) 2014: 143 - Pineau De Re (lowest 138) 2015: 160 (compressed 5lbs) - Many Clouds (lowest 139) 2016: 148 - Rule The World (lowest 145) 2017: 148 - One For Arthur (lowest 143) 2018: 150 - Tiger Roll (but Pleasant Company lost by a Head [OR148]) (lowest 142) 2019: 159 - Tiger Roll (lowest 142)
I don't think you can't compare Tiger Roll and Red Rum IMO. Star though he is, Tiger Roll may well not have got round the course as it was in Red Rum's time. It's different race now and no matter how many times TR (or another horse) might win it, they will never compare with Rummy.
Comments
I staked £5 in total. 2 horses, so £2.50 on each. Betting slip shows £1.25 on both so I assume the stake was halved because it was an e/w bet.
All I know is that is the first time in over 30 years that I've actually won anything. Only bet about 5 times in all that time mind. Last time a few years ago I didn't realise that betting tax had been abolished.
As Tiger Roll won he should be up overall but I agree that with odds of 1/5 9/2 would mean a loss for place only.
crap grand national for me - not even a Place!
aside from that was up overall for the 3 days kildisart a nice winner on Saturday.
Roll on punchestown and then the wait for the jumps to come back!
Morning folks.
Had a short break to clear the head after Saturday’s GN and, for anyone interested, I’ll post shortly my views of how things went for Mark II of my GN model, making its debut.
Before that, a couple of thoughts about the race:
I can’t add anything to what’s already been said about the amazing Tiger Roll. To add back-to-back GNs (one run on Heavy, the other on Good ground) to his extraordinarily varied record of success is truly astonishing.
You could not bet against him, even with top-weight, from making it a hat-trick and I wouldn't presume to take a view on whether or not connections should aim him at that. But like @killer kish I applaud Michael O’Leary's words (if not the man):
"There is no reason to emulate Red Rum's feat. Red Rum saved the Grand National and put it back on the map during a time when the race was struggling. Tiger Roll isn't Red Rum, he's Tiger Roll and I feel no pressure to go back and win it a third time."
On a different subject, sadly, there was another fatality on the GN course, Up For Review - brought down by Vintage Clouds, who fell at the first fence.
Every fatality in a race is profoundly sad and regrettable but the facts are these:
1. The incident could have happened in any chase on any course.
2. It was the first fatality in 7 GNs since 2012, when the material fence modifications were made.
3. Of course, that’s nothing to celebrate but the fact that only 2 of the other 38 runners fell over the remaining 28 fences does confirm the material effect of those changes.
As I’ll point out in the analysis of my model, the effect of those changes can also be seen in the race result itself. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad and not complaining, but Magic Of Light absolutely clattered 2 fences, including the Chair, in a way that would certainly have ended her race in days gone by. Instead she somehow continued and nearly won the race. She’s certainly not an isolated example of how those changes have had a material, positive impact on safety and (with more mixed feelings) on the nature of the test that is the Grand National.
Unfortunately, no credit will be given in the mainstream press, or among those that wish to see National Hunt racing in general (or at least its most iconic showpiece) banned, for the positive steps taken to improve safety in the GN after 2012 and Aintree and the BHA should always been seeking to find ways to improve safety further that are reasonable and that protect the integrity of the race.
It may be argued that the next logical step to take to minimise risk to horses in the GN is to reduce the size of the field from 40.
I can understand the logic of that but, in my view, it would be a very sad day indeed for staying chasers if there were to be any material reduction in field size, unless it were accompanied by a stiffer qualification threshold as regards form at a trip so as to avoid further crowding out top stayers from THE Grand National.
The astronomic growth in prize money has increasingly incentivised connections of horses with high official ratings derived from 2-3m chases to take their shot at the GN but with little likelihood of scoring at the 4.25m trip. But the effect has been to crowd out horses that are genuine staying chasers further down the handicap, thereby straining the link between the race and the next tier of “Nationals” below.
To illustrate the point, the lowest OR represented on Saturday was OR142 - Joe Farrell. He was last year’s Scot Nat winner and, despite being +7lb in OR for that victory at Ayr, only just made the cut at #40.
He ran disappointingly but consider this: At that OR142 cut-off, none of these former GN winners (from just the previous 12 renewals), with genuine staying credentials, would have come anywhere near even making the Reserves for Saturday’s race:
· 2013 - Auroras Encore (Scot Nat 2nd) – OR137
· 2008 - Comply Or Die (Eider Chase winner) – OR139
· 2007 - Silver Birch (Welsh GN and Becher Chase winner) – OR138
· 2006 - Numbersixvalverde (Irish GN winner) – OR138
And, by the way, Hedgehunter, who carried 11.01 to win the 2005 GN (the first winner to carry 11.00+ since 1988), would have carried 10.04 on Saturday.
The character of the GN has changed, inevitably, in recent years, with positive results for safety to be applauded. But a risk-free horserace (on flat or over jumps) is an impossibility and I sincerely hope that the integrity of the race is not to be further emasculated in vain pursuit of that, simply in the name of political correctness.
On another note, as great as Tiger Roll is his achievement in winning back to back Nationals comes nowhere near the achievements of Red Rum, as it was far more difficult to win the race in his day.
this, when you look at the speed horses now go over the fences it is much easier - i don't like to see horses hurt or die, but it is no longer the same race which it once was, as for the race and visiting it, been there and done it its certainly something i wanted to tick off but do not think i would bother again, have already got my tickets for weds and thurs at cheltenham next year and may take in the dublin racing festival aswell, planning on doing the tingle creek at sandown in december also
hardline
apples jade
delta work
battleoverdoyen
commander of fleet
dallas des pictons
all beaten gigginstown/elliot favourites at cheltenham
a lot argue that the millions pumped into Irish racing by o'leary should be appreciated.
there is a video online of the flight back to Dublin from Liverpool this Saturday and him giving out 2 free drinks, a nice gesture but the flight was delayed by an hour and it cost him max about £1400.00 this is a man that is worth 868 million pounds.
Some years ago I asked you a boring question (that you kindly said was not boring). It was basically whether your model could ever be over-modified... Say if you adjust it one year based on the results, but the results were because of anomalies, and so your model becomes less accurate. You said that it was not likely since you tried not to include things that were clear anomalies.
As a follow-up, I was just wondering whether you ever run the stats post-race based on older versions of your model, to see how they would have fared? And when you adjust your model do you do it on an exclusionary basis (excluding horses that won't win) or inclusionary, or both?
Forgive the boring questions again. Just find it interesting.
Red Rum won his 1st National because Mr Crisp ridden by Richard Pitman was carrying 12 stone and Red Rum 10 stone 5 !
No wonder Red Rum came back from 15 lengths down at the last fence.
By the time Red Rum won his 3rd GN in 1977 his weight was 11st 7. (Still the fastest time?)
As Tiger Roll is a smaller horse than RR, and twice stumbled on the 2nd circuit, with even more weight next year I hope O'Leary is good to his word and doesn't run him.
Tiger Roll is already a legend.
You are spot on Len about Mr Crisp and I wonder how many times Pitman dreams or has nightmares about the run in of that classic encounter. (Pitman never won the GN)
As Tiger Roll won with 11st 1 this year which was 9 pound higher than last year,
would the handicapper give him 11.8 or 11.10 next year if he was to go for the hat trick ?
You have mentioned the fact that a much higher Handicap mark is now required just to get in the race. But what is the trend with the winners Handicap mark as 151 & 159 for the last two years tends to suggest its rising.
I'm guessing that comparing Red Rums handicap marks to Tigers is like comparing Nobby Stiles to Luca Modric?
Over the 3 days 308 horses run at aintree - where do you think those would be if not for racing and this is one meeting, there are numerous meetings every day.
I dont like Davy Russel since he punched the horse - which is sick and no need for.
If you don't mind, as I'm a bit tied up at the moment, I'll answer when I post about how the model actually performed (as opposed to how I translated it to my betting slip!).
Was one of the easiest winners I've seen in a long time. Largely stopped watching 6 out, he was going that well. My contrarian slant will always look to take him on though (got one in mind for next year already actually!)
Felt sick for the Wylies losing Up For Review, they really have had a torrid month.
Where the hell did Magic Of Light come from?! Was just about the first one off my shortlist!!
Anyway....Scottish National this weekend, and Irish the weekend after. Got my eye on one for the latter that looks a right plot job (no prizes for guessing who owns that one!)
2005: 144 - Hedgehunter (lowest OR in race 134)
2006: 138 - Numbersixvalverde (lowest 134)
2007: 138 - Silver Birch (lowest 134) (but McKelvey lost by 0.75L [OR136])
2008: 139 - Comply Or Die (lowest 137)
2009: 148 - Mon Mome (lowest 139)
2010: 153 - Don't Push It (lowest 139)
2011: 150 - Ballabriggs (lowest 138)
2012: 157 (compressed 2lbs from 159) - Neptune Collonges (but Sunnyhillboy lost by Nose [OR142]) (lowest 137)
2013: 137 - Auroras Encore (lowest 131)
2014: 143 - Pineau De Re (lowest 138)
2015: 160 (compressed 5lbs) - Many Clouds (lowest 139)
2016: 148 - Rule The World (lowest 145)
2017: 148 - One For Arthur (lowest 143)
2018: 150 - Tiger Roll (but Pleasant Company lost by a Head [OR148]) (lowest 142)
2019: 159 - Tiger Roll (lowest 142)
I don't think you can't compare Tiger Roll and Red Rum IMO. Star though he is, Tiger Roll may well not have got round the course as it was in Red Rum's time.
It's different race now and no matter how many times TR (or another horse) might win it, they will never compare with Rummy.