Prioritise the home games... that should give us enough points
Treat the away games as bonuses yet try not to lose them
We lose both away and they pick up points at home, all of a sudden we are in the bottom 3 for 1st time.
Agree we obviously have games at home but in 10 days if we are in a relegation place , it is not great for the players psychologically.
I think we have loads to stay up personally but being in the bottom 3 is not great in February.
We need something from Stoke...
We need something against Forest now ... 😳
But Wigan lost at home today, so even if we lost to Forest we wouldn't be in the bottom 3 still ahead of the big 2 home games against Blackburn and Luton.
So it's not ideal at all but defeat to Forest isn't the end of the world
If we were in the bottom three people would still be saying it’ll be ok as we have xx games to go, xx games at home, players returning from injury etc etc. Only when we go down would their heads come out of the sand.
It's no coincidence that 3 of the bottom 4 are occupied by teams promoted last season. The 4th team in that group, Wigan, came up the previous season.
There are exceptions, such as Sheffield United, but it seems to me that, without investment, the gulf between the divisions is as wide as that between the PL and Championship.
We face a challenge to survive but think we will providing we stop leaking soft goals, And if we do it will be interesting to see what investment, albeit on a controlled basis, the owners will be prepared to make.
5 years ago Wolves and Brentford stayed up. 4 years ago Bristol City and Preston stayed up and have been in the championship since. 3 years ago Burton stayed up. 2 years ago Sheffield United and Millwall stayed up. Last year Wigan and Blackburn stayed up.
So in the last 5 years 9 of the 15 sides promoted have stayed in the division the next year.
If you look at this year Barnsley are a perennial yo-yo side anyway and Luton were always going to struggle as they'd had 2 straight promotions. Luton were in the National league just 6 years ago.
5 years ago Wolves and Brentford stayed up. 4 years ago Bristol City and Preston stayed up and have been in the championship since. 3 years ago Burton stayed up. 2 years ago Sheffield United and Millwall stayed up. Last year Wigan and Blackburn stayed up.
So in the last 5 years 9 of the 15 sides promoted have stayed in the division the next year.
If you look at this year Barnsley are a perennial yo-yo side anyway and Luton were always going to struggle as they'd had 2 straight promotions. Luton were in the National league just 6 years ago.
40% going straight back down after the euphoria and crest of a wave that promotion brings is a crap percentage from this division . If anyone can be bothered to look I reckon the previous 10 years would show less than 40% !
5 years ago Wolves and Brentford stayed up. 4 years ago Bristol City and Preston stayed up and have been in the championship since. 3 years ago Burton stayed up. 2 years ago Sheffield United and Millwall stayed up. Last year Wigan and Blackburn stayed up.
So in the last 5 years 9 of the 15 sides promoted have stayed in the division the next year.
If you look at this year Barnsley are a perennial yo-yo side anyway and Luton were always going to struggle as they'd had 2 straight promotions. Luton were in the National league just 6 years ago.
40% going straight back down after the euphoria and crest of a wave that promotion brings is a crap percentage from this division . If anyone can be bothered to look I reckon the previous 10 years would show less than 40% !
To be honest it will only get tougher and tougher as premier league parachute payments get higher.
Teams coming down now get around 90m across 3 years if they don't go back up which means in a season like this one where none of the sides relegated in the last 3 years have gone back up yet means almost half the division is earning vast amounts more than the sides who haven't been in the premier league.
Then you have sides like Derby trying to fiddle expenses with stupid ground purchase deals and it's no surprise it's tough for sides coming up from league one.
5 years ago Wolves and Brentford stayed up. 4 years ago Bristol City and Preston stayed up and have been in the championship since. 3 years ago Burton stayed up. 2 years ago Sheffield United and Millwall stayed up. Last year Wigan and Blackburn stayed up.
So in the last 5 years 9 of the 15 sides promoted have stayed in the division the next year.
If you look at this year Barnsley are a perennial yo-yo side anyway and Luton were always going to struggle as they'd had 2 straight promotions. Luton were in the National league just 6 years ago.
The last 4 years promoted sides have been (finishing or current positions in the Championship the following season in brackets):
The ones in bold were all relegated within 2 seasons of promotion. This only leaves Sheffield United, Blackburn, Millwall and Charlton but Millwall missed relegation by one place last season and we are only one place of going down at the moment and the team that is in 22nd place is Wigan - who were promoted the previous season.
Sheffield United won League 1 by 15 points with 100 in total and were miles ahead of the other teams in the Division. Last season 9 points separated the top 5 and there wasn't a stand out side. This season Rotherham would be on course for about 86 points had this been a 46 match season and there is just 8 points covering the top 7.
On that basis, what chance would the current top 3 (Rotherham, Wycombe and Peterborough) have of surviving without investment?
Comments
So it's not ideal at all but defeat to Forest isn't the end of the world
Reluctant to miss this Millwall game though as the conditions should really make it interesting
There are exceptions, such as Sheffield United, but it seems to me that, without investment, the gulf between the divisions is as wide as that between the PL and Championship.
We face a challenge to survive but think we will providing we stop leaking soft goals, And if we do it will be interesting to see what investment, albeit on a controlled basis, the owners will be prepared to make.
5 years ago Wolves and Brentford stayed up.
4 years ago Bristol City and Preston stayed up and have been in the championship since.
3 years ago Burton stayed up.
2 years ago Sheffield United and Millwall stayed up.
Last year Wigan and Blackburn stayed up.
So in the last 5 years 9 of the 15 sides promoted have stayed in the division the next year.
If you look at this year Barnsley are a perennial yo-yo side anyway and Luton were always going to struggle as they'd had 2 straight promotions. Luton were in the National league just 6 years ago.
If anyone can be bothered to look I reckon the previous 10 years would show less than 40% !
Teams coming down now get around 90m across 3 years if they don't go back up which means in a season like this one where none of the sides relegated in the last 3 years have gone back up yet means almost half the division is earning vast amounts more than the sides who haven't been in the premier league.
Then you have sides like Derby trying to fiddle expenses with stupid ground purchase deals and it's no surprise it's tough for sides coming up from league one.
2015/16 - Wigan (23), Burton (20), Barnsley (14)
2016/17 - Sheffield United (10), Bolton (21), Millwall (8)
2017/18 - Blackburn (15), Wigan (18), Rotherham (22)
2018/19 - Luton (24), Barnsley (23), Charlton (21)
The ones in bold were all relegated within 2 seasons of promotion. This only leaves Sheffield United, Blackburn, Millwall and Charlton but Millwall missed relegation by one place last season and we are only one place of going down at the moment and the team that is in 22nd place is Wigan - who were promoted the previous season.
Sheffield United won League 1 by 15 points with 100 in total and were miles ahead of the other teams in the Division. Last season 9 points separated the top 5 and there wasn't a stand out side. This season Rotherham would be on course for about 86 points had this been a 46 match season and there is just 8 points covering the top 7.
On that basis, what chance would the current top 3 (Rotherham, Wycombe and Peterborough) have of surviving without investment?
CAFC
9 away games left
7 at home
Wigan
9 home games left
7 at home
Now:
7 each home and away
Form guide last six games:
CAFC away 2 games : 3 points