Birmingham City are probably the worst team we will play since we re started the season. if we don’t win this one I feel we are then F—Ked 👎👎
Not won in ages & last 4 home games have let in 3 goals each time.
Yeah, we are just the team to play. My old man has always said that we are the "doctors" of any division we are in. Always the team to help out the opposition & cure their ills. Not won in months.....play Charlton & that will end. Not scored all season.....get a hat trick against us.
Lump all your money on a Birmingham win.
My dad says the same. Anytime someone’s in a bad run, play us and we’ll fix it for them...
Birmingham City are probably the worst team we will play since we re started the season. if we don’t win this one I feel we are then F—Ked 👎👎
Not won in ages & last 4 home games have let in 3 goals each time.
Yeah, we are just the team to play. My old man has always said that we are the "doctors" of any division we are in. Always the team to help out the opposition & cure their ills. Not won in months.....play Charlton & that will end. Not scored all season.....get a hat trick against us.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
If we win tonight or against Wigan and Hull/Luton draw on Saturday then we're safe.
4 points from the next 2 games and we're definitely safe, regardless of what the Hull/Luton result is.
*this is of course assuming Barnsley don't suddenly turn into Barcelona.
Trying to work out if 49 will be enough to survive. I've got Hull on 45, Barnsley on 46. Those two I think are doomed now and can't see them reaching 49.
Luton on 49 (4 points v Hull and Blackburn playing for nothing seems probable) Huddersfield on 49 (1 point v West Brom and Millwall seems probable) Stoke on 50 (1 point v Brentford and Forest resting players seems probable) Birmingham on 50 (1 point v us, Preston or Derby playing for nothing seems probable) Wigan on 51 (2 wins v us and Fulham resting players seems probable)
Obviously won't be exactly right with that but point is all of these teams could still easily end on 49 and our superior GD over everyone excluding Wigan means we only need one of the other 4 listed above to end on 49 for us to survive.
Meaning I think 49 will almost definitely be enough.
Birmingham City are probably the worst team we will play since we re started the season. if we don’t win this one I feel we are then F—Ked 👎👎
Not won in ages & last 4 home games have let in 3 goals each time.
Yeah, we are just the team to play. My old man has always said that we are the "doctors" of any division we are in. Always the team to help out the opposition & cure their ills. Not won in months.....play Charlton & that will end. Not scored all season.....get a hat trick against us.
Lump all your money on a Birmingham win.
My dad says the same. Anytime someone’s in a bad run, play us and we’ll fix it for them...
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
Their simulated results are just extrapolations, not taking into account current form or opposition, so make little sense really.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
If we win tonight or against Wigan and Hull/Luton draw on Saturday then we're safe.
4 points from the next 2 games and we're definitely safe, regardless of what the Hull/Luton result is.
*this is of course assuming Barnsley don't suddenly turn into Barcelona.
Trying to work out if 49 will be enough to survive. I've got Hull on 45, Barnsley on 46. Those two I think are doomed now and can't see them reaching 49.
Luton on 49 (4 points v Hull and Blackburn playing for nothing seems probable) Huddersfield on 49 (1 point v West Brom and Millwall seems probable) Stoke on 50 (1 point v Brentford and Forest resting players seems probable) Birmingham on 50 (1 point v us, Preston or Derby playing for nothing seems probable) Wigan on 51 (2 wins v us and Fulham resting players seems probable)
Obviously won't be exactly right with that but point is all of these teams could still easily end on 49 and our superior GD over everyone excluding Wigan means we only need one of the other 4 listed above to end on 49 for us to survive.
Meaning I think 49 will almost definitely be enough.
Knowing Charlton, we lose to Birmingham and Wigan, then beat Leeds away.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
Their simulated results are just extrapolations, not taking into account current form or opposition, so make little sense really.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
It’s more nuanced than I think you’re giving credit, they’re using their SPI ratings for each team.
Yes it would seem bizarre that they are favouring Hull over Luton given their result last night however there are still two key things in Hull’s favour: their goal difference is still better than Luton’s and their match at the weekend is at the KCOM.
Given those two conditions I’d argue favouring Hull by only 12-13% is actually somewhat conservative.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
Their simulated results are just extrapolations, not taking into account current form or opposition, so make little sense really.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
It’s more nuanced than I think you’re giving credit, they’re using their SPI ratings for each team.
Yes it would seem bizarre that they are favouring Hull over Luton given their result last night however there are still two key things in Hull’s favour: their goal difference is still better than Luton’s and their match at the weekend is at the KCOM.
Given those two conditions I’d argue favouring Hull by only 12-13% is actually somewhat conservative.
I don't like to predict the outcome of matches ... it's a mug's game.
But, when you get tonked 8-0, all the focus ahead of Saturday will be on fixing the defence. With Luton not being overly prolific, how about Hull City 0-0 Luton?
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
Their simulated results are just extrapolations, not taking into account current form or opposition, so make little sense really.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
It’s more nuanced than I think you’re giving credit, they’re using their SPI ratings for each team.
Yes it would seem bizarre that they are favouring Hull over Luton given their result last night however there are still two key things in Hull’s favour: their goal difference is still better than Luton’s and their match at the weekend is at the KCOM.
Given those two conditions I’d argue favouring Hull by only 12-13% is actually somewhat conservative.
I don't like to predict the outcome of matches ... it's a mug's game.
But, when you get tonked 8-0, all the focus ahead of Saturday will be on fixing the defence. With Luton not being overly prolific, how about Hull City 0-0 Luton?
That would do nicely.
Agree that a draw there is by far the best result for us.
538’s model puts us at 31% chance of relegation before playing Birmingham.
Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
Their simulated results are just extrapolations, not taking into account current form or opposition, so make little sense really.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
It’s more nuanced than I think you’re giving credit, they’re using their SPI ratings for each team.
Yes it would seem bizarre that they are favouring Hull over Luton given their result last night however there are still two key things in Hull’s favour: their goal difference is still better than Luton’s and their match at the weekend is at the KCOM.
Given those two conditions I’d argue favouring Hull by only 12-13% is actually somewhat conservative.
The GD is misleading though, as the Hull before January when they sold their 2 best players is very different from the post January Hull. Conversely the post January Luton are a better team than before the window, as they strengthened their side.
It doesn’t really matter how the team’s goal difference has changed since January when both teams have only two games left to play. Hull are still four goals ahead of Luton and the Hatters are quickly running out of time to catch that up.
If Hull and Luton end up level on points, Hull will finish above them (unless someone else pulls another ugly score out of the bag). That’s a huge advantage to have at the bottom of the table.
Fair point regarding home advantage, we are seeing more away wins than we were prior to lockdown. The bookies have the KCOM match at close to a coin flip.
Is a draw against Wigan or Leeds potentially enough to survive?
Barnsley have a tough run of fixtures and look unlikely to reach 48, so we need two additional teams to finish below us. Luton/Hull -If they play each other and draw, perfect, then each team will need to win against Blackburn/Cardiff to pass us. If one team wins, that'll put them on 48 but below us on GD, meaning the winner would be forced to draw to go above us. Huddersfield are on 48, but have to play West Brom and Millwall, tough fixtures. If our draw comes against Wigan, then (after the points deduction), they'll be on 46, needing a win against Fulham to pass us.
If we draw against Wigan, then that leaves Barnsley almost guaranteed to finish below us and two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield/Wigan with a realistic chance to finish below us. If we draw against Leeds, then that becomes two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield with a realistic chance.
I'm probably clutching at straws here, but trying to hold onto hope.
Is a draw against Wigan or Leeds potentially enough to survive?
Barnsley have a tough run of fixtures and look unlikely to reach 48, so we need two additional teams to finish below us. Luton/Hull -If they play each other and draw, perfect, then each team will need to win against Blackburn/Cardiff to pass us. If one team wins, that'll put them on 48 but below us on GD, meaning the winner would be forced to draw to go above us. Huddersfield are on 48, but have to play West Brom and Millwall, tough fixtures. If our draw comes against Wigan, then (after the points deduction), they'll be on 46, needing a win against Fulham to pass us.
If we draw against Wigan, then that leaves Barnsley almost guaranteed to finish below us and two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield/Wigan with a realistic chance to finish below us. If we draw against Leeds, then that becomes two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield with a realistic chance.
I'm probably clutching at straws here, but trying to hold onto hope.
I said this on Monday on this thread that 2 points, including one v Wigan gives us a fighting chance as Wigan will have to beat Fulham, Barnsley won't get 6 points and only one of Hull/Luton can finish above us.
Well thats a misleading headline as both Huddersfield / Charlton play before Luton on Saturday so wins for all three wont lift Luton out of the relegation zone
Our best hope is Leeds winning their final 2 games to clinch promotion and the title, and all their players going on a 3 day bender before we play them
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Every team on 49 points or above shows a less than 1% of relegation. That would imply that a win tomorrow is about as close as it gets to guaranteeing safety without being mathematically certain.
4 points from the next 2 games and we're definitely safe, regardless of what the Hull/Luton result is.
*this is of course assuming Barnsley don't suddenly turn into Barcelona.
Luton on 49 (4 points v Hull and Blackburn playing for nothing seems probable)
Huddersfield on 49 (1 point v West Brom and Millwall seems probable)
Stoke on 50 (1 point v Brentford and Forest resting players seems probable)
Birmingham on 50 (1 point v us, Preston or Derby playing for nothing seems probable)
Wigan on 51 (2 wins v us and Fulham resting players seems probable)
Obviously won't be exactly right with that but point is all of these teams could still easily end on 49 and our superior GD over everyone excluding Wigan means we only need one of the other 4 listed above to end on 49 for us to survive.
Meaning I think 49 will almost definitely be enough.
Having Hull pick more points than Luton for example makes no sense whatsover after last night!
It's the Charlton way.
Maybe.
Given those two conditions I’d argue favouring Hull by only 12-13% is actually somewhat conservative.
But, when you get tonked 8-0, all the focus ahead of Saturday will be on fixing the defence. With Luton not being overly prolific, how about Hull City 0-0 Luton?
That would do nicely.
And home advantage has gone now, with no crowds
https://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
Looking at the form table for the last 12 matches, Luton are 10th with 18 points. Hull are last with FIVE points
We're 19th incidentally, and Birmingham 23rd
Fair point regarding home advantage, we are seeing more away wins than we were prior to lockdown. The bookies have the KCOM match at close to a coin flip.
Barnsley have a tough run of fixtures and look unlikely to reach 48, so we need two additional teams to finish below us.
Luton/Hull -If they play each other and draw, perfect, then each team will need to win against Blackburn/Cardiff to pass us. If one team wins, that'll put them on 48 but below us on GD, meaning the winner would be forced to draw to go above us.
Huddersfield are on 48, but have to play West Brom and Millwall, tough fixtures.
If our draw comes against Wigan, then (after the points deduction), they'll be on 46, needing a win against Fulham to pass us.
If we draw against Wigan, then that leaves Barnsley almost guaranteed to finish below us and two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield/Wigan with a realistic chance to finish below us. If we draw against Leeds, then that becomes two of Luton/Hull/Huddersfield with a realistic chance.
I'm probably clutching at straws here, but trying to hold onto hope.