For those of us who like to lay bare our conflict with the bookies, and sharing our ups and downs, and thoughts on value bets.
I am kicking off with a £100 single on Charlton win at Crewe 6/4 generally.
Barrow, Cheltenham, Port Vale £20 treble
Salford, Northampton, Sunderland £20 treble and £3 all six
Norwich and Notts Forest £20 Double.
Be Lucky.
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Comments
Charlton/Southampton/ Fleetwood & Peterborough 22/1.
Heres hoping for a win for the good guys.
PP £5 for Liverpool game.
Ladbrokes £1.
Sky bet 5p fpr £5 free bet on Liverpool game.
Sky £2 free bet,
5/1 Promotion with Betfair and Paddy Power
Bonne as low as 12/1 but 20/1 with Paddy Power who also have Washington at the same price, to be league 1 top scorer.
Charlton Hull £25 double
Norwich Orient £25 double. £10 fourfold and £5 trebles.
The pessimist in me says the 20/1 to be relegated with BetVictor is potentially more value!
That eagle on the last made me feel a bit more comfortable!
came in last night
The prices and cashout move in accordance with the score and CAFCsayer could have taken (as confirmed in a post above) a cashout of £948 for a profit of £844 with two minutes to go i.e. at a lay price by my calculation, of 1.05, or 1/20 in old money.
I worked for Betfair for over a decade and have witnessed gamblers (one in particular) actually back at 1.05 with two minutes to go for the sort of trade of £10,000 to win £500 because, actually, that is, in their opinion, a way of buying money. The issue, of course, is that if a goal is scored more than once in 20 you are a big loser.
My son is a professional trader (mostly on cricket) and he will not trade out a position unless the price is right to do so. Someone I used to work with is now a multi millionaire from trading and I recall the time when he was following, at his sister's wedding, the final round of a golf tournament, having backed the five shot leader with nine holes to play to win £100K (to a stake of £500). Again, he didn't cash out because, in his opinion, the price for the golfer capitulating wasn't right. But his golfer lost in a play off - he took that in a very stoic manner because he understood the risk of doing that.
Some people always cash out. Others never do so. And some will look at the circumstances that prevail and the price on offer. Hindsight is wonderful but, whether to do so, can be a subjective decision. At what point do you do so? With 15 minutes to go and possibly give half your profit back - and regret doing that when you had it right all along?
It's all a question of "feel" and probably, in the case of football, how open the game is. City do not have a water tight defence but do have the capability of hitting a side on the counter attack in a nano second whereas some games you look at probably wouldn't have a goal if they played for a month!
The final factor is how big your bank is. Can you afford not to take that cash out and ride the storm should things go against you?
Don’t worry if it will take hours to explain.
My mate is on a hot streak won over £6k last couple of months, betting mainly on tennis and football. He has been staking alot to get there but on a good run still and in his words has found a system that works. I am following briefly with his bets from £30 yesterday, first bet came in Djokovic/Halep + City. He said to stick until we get to £1k, but im going to cash out at £500, just going with as he is in good form and only £30 initial stake. My betting is alway hit or miss, usually do ok but not big profits and stake £5-£25 max normally
A simple example - I am assuming zero commission (this is what Betfair take from any profit) but this can be anything between 2% and 5% depending on the status of your account.
You've backed Stoke to win the Championship at 11.00 (i.e.10/1) on Betfair. With 10 games to go they are 4.00 (3/1) so you can:
(1) Let it run for potential profit of £1,000 or a loss of £100
(2) Lay your stake back at 4.00 (3/1) which means that you have your £100 back in your account and a potential profit of £700 if they win but nothing if they don't
(3) Lay a flat book - you take your £100 back and whatever the outcome you will profit by an additional £175
(4) Take your stake and a bit of profit but leave yourself with a potential extra return should they win - e.g. you lay back £200 at 4.00 which gives you your original stake of £100 back plus another £100 guaranteed return should Stoke not win the Championship but an extra £400 should they do so