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BETTING THREAD 2020 -2021 SEASON
RaplhMilne
Posts: 4,636
For those of us who like to lay bare our conflict with the bookies, and sharing our ups and downs, and thoughts on value bets.
I am kicking off with a £100 single on Charlton win at Crewe 6/4 generally.
Barrow, Cheltenham, Port Vale £20 treble
Salford, Northampton, Sunderland £20 treble and £3 all six
Norwich and Notts Forest £20 Double.
Be Lucky.
I am kicking off with a £100 single on Charlton win at Crewe 6/4 generally.
Barrow, Cheltenham, Port Vale £20 treble
Salford, Northampton, Sunderland £20 treble and £3 all six
Norwich and Notts Forest £20 Double.
Be Lucky.
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Comments
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Think Charlton are a great price today.Expecting Southampton to have a great season so think they will stuff those Nigels.
Charlton/Southampton/ Fleetwood & Peterborough 22/1.
Heres hoping for a win for the good guys.0 -
Freebets knocking around today.
PP £5 for Liverpool game.
Ladbrokes £1.
Sky bet 5p fpr £5 free bet on Liverpool game.
Sky £2 free bet,2 -
Charlton to win the league 12/1 £20
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I took the 4/1 for promotion. Certain we will finish top 6 at 5/4. Personally reckon we will be the team to beat by December/ January onwards.clb74 said:Charlton to win the league 12/1 £200 -
14/1 with Unibetclb74 said:Charlton to win the league 12/1 £20
5/1 Promotion with Betfair and Paddy Power
Bonne as low as 12/1 but 20/1 with Paddy Power who also have Washington at the same price, to be league 1 top scorer.An if you fancy Charlton win the league and Bonnie top scorer in league then 100/1 with SKYBET.0 -
Finished in front last week, so no complaints.UNIBET still have the Addicks at 14/1 to be Champions , whist most other firms moved their 12/1 into 11/1. Top price for promotion is now 4/1.This week.
Charlton Hull £25 double
Norwich Orient £25 double. £10 fourfold and £5 trebles.Little late with this one. National South betting had Ebbsfleet At 5/1 behind Havant favs at 4/1. Dartford at 8/1. Fleet played Aldershot at home , lost 3-0. A week later the same Aldershot team lost 3-0 at Dartford. A few have latched onto that result and Darts now in to 6/1. But, still value in my opinion.0 -
RaplhMilne said:Finished in front last week, so no complaints.UNIBET still have the Addicks at 14/1 to be Champions , whist most other firms moved their 12/1 into 11/1. Top price for promotion is now 4/1.This week.
Charlton Hull £25 double
Norwich Orient £25 double. £10 fourfold and £5 trebles.Little late with this one. National South betting had Ebbsfleet At 5/1 behind Havant favs at 4/1. Dartford at 8/1. Fleet played Aldershot at home , lost 3-0. A week later the same Aldershot team lost 3-0 at Dartford. A few have latched onto that result and Darts now in to 6/1. But, still value in my opinion.
The pessimist in me says the 20/1 to be relegated with BetVictor is potentially more value!1 -
Had a big win last weekend and pissed up me thought it'd be good to carry on...
That eagle on the last made me feel a bit more comfortable!4 -
Article I have wrote for the weekend. Hull to beat Crewe. 19/20 great price for the winhttps://footballbettingadvice.co.uk/2020/09/18/hull-looking-to-cruise-past-crewe/
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Nice work. Hull certainly look a decent bet tomorrow at evens on the exchange.SouthWest_Addicks said:Article I have wrote for the weekend. Hull to beat Crewe. 19/20 great price for the winhttps://footballbettingadvice.co.uk/2020/09/18/hull-looking-to-cruise-past-crewe/PP certainly chucking the free bets around at the moment. Another £5 for Chelsea-Liverpool on Sundsy0 -
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7 team accy, 6 win on Saturday, was on to win £156 from a £2 bet if Newcastle could beat Brighton... Onto next week.0
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NFL: point in every quarter of the 6pm/9pm/9.25pm games - 120/1
came in last night1 -
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Not on the Betfair Exchange thoughRaplhMilne said:0 -
anyone got a wolves shirt i can borrow?
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Oi oi @CAFCsayer0
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Did you lay it at all.0
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No, went to cash it out at 948 with 2 minutes to go and literally told myself, out loud, to "grow a pair" and let it run. What a prick2
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ouch unlucky mate0
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Man City do a Charlton on you, and feck up your night.0
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Can someone explain the betfair screenshot to me please.0
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The bet was £104.21 to win £875.52 but this snapshot was taken when the score was 0-2 after 46 minutes (as shown at the top). The cashout at this time was £81.64 (i.e. a loss of £22.57).MrOneLung said:Can someone explain the betfair screenshot to me please.
The prices and cashout move in accordance with the score and CAFCsayer could have taken (as confirmed in a post above) a cashout of £948 for a profit of £844 with two minutes to go i.e. at a lay price by my calculation, of 1.05, or 1/20 in old money.
I worked for Betfair for over a decade and have witnessed gamblers (one in particular) actually back at 1.05 with two minutes to go for the sort of trade of £10,000 to win £500 because, actually, that is, in their opinion, a way of buying money. The issue, of course, is that if a goal is scored more than once in 20 you are a big loser.
My son is a professional trader (mostly on cricket) and he will not trade out a position unless the price is right to do so. Someone I used to work with is now a multi millionaire from trading and I recall the time when he was following, at his sister's wedding, the final round of a golf tournament, having backed the five shot leader with nine holes to play to win £100K (to a stake of £500). Again, he didn't cash out because, in his opinion, the price for the golfer capitulating wasn't right. But his golfer lost in a play off - he took that in a very stoic manner because he understood the risk of doing that.
Some people always cash out. Others never do so. And some will look at the circumstances that prevail and the price on offer. Hindsight is wonderful but, whether to do so, can be a subjective decision. At what point do you do so? With 15 minutes to go and possibly give half your profit back - and regret doing that when you had it right all along?
It's all a question of "feel" and probably, in the case of football, how open the game is. City do not have a water tight defence but do have the capability of hitting a side on the counter attack in a nano second whereas some games you look at probably wouldn't have a goal if they played for a month!
The final factor is how big your bank is. Can you afford not to take that cash out and ride the storm should things go against you?6 -
But what’s all the ‘back’ and ‘lay’ stuff?
Don’t worry if it will take hours to explain.0 -
Back is just to put a bet on it to win. When you lay it, you are acting as the bookie and offering those odds, so in effect, you're betting on that outcome not to happen0
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I get betfair exchange but never really gone onto it properly, what would you say the pros/cons are? Is it more for big bettors or is it worth it for small punts?CAFCsayer said:Back is just to put a bet on it to win. When you lay it, you are acting as the bookie and offering those odds, so in effect, you're betting on that outcome not to happen
My mate is on a hot streak won over £6k last couple of months, betting mainly on tennis and football. He has been staking alot to get there but on a good run still and in his words has found a system that works. I am following briefly with his bets from £30 yesterday, first bet came in Djokovic/Halep + City. He said to stick until we get to £1k, but im going to cash out at £500, just going with as he is in good form and only £30 initial stake. My betting is alway hit or miss, usually do ok but not big profits and stake £5-£25 max normally0 -
If you are trading or backing and laying (or even laying and backing) it's no different to buying a commodity be it a share, house, painting or whatever and then selling it for more. Although, on an exchange, you can choose to just lay back your initial outlay for a reduced profit - or have what's known as a "flat book" where you win the same amount whatever the outcome (or any variance in between).Uboat said:But what’s all the ‘back’ and ‘lay’ stuff?
Don’t worry if it will take hours to explain.
A simple example - I am assuming zero commission (this is what Betfair take from any profit) but this can be anything between 2% and 5% depending on the status of your account.
You've backed Stoke to win the Championship at 11.00 (i.e.10/1) on Betfair. With 10 games to go they are 4.00 (3/1) so you can:
(1) Let it run for potential profit of £1,000 or a loss of £100
(2) Lay your stake back at 4.00 (3/1) which means that you have your £100 back in your account and a potential profit of £700 if they win but nothing if they don't
(3) Lay a flat book - you take your £100 back and whatever the outcome you will profit by an additional £175
(4) Take your stake and a bit of profit but leave yourself with a potential extra return should they win - e.g. you lay back £200 at 4.00 which gives you your original stake of £100 back plus another £100 guaranteed return should Stoke not win the Championship but an extra £400 should they do so
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WH boosted KDB to have two shots or more on target last night to 4/1. It came in after 18 minutes, beautiful stuff.1
