@Addick Addict thanks that makes alot of sense, i appreciate you taking the time to write that and put it in layman's terms.
Essentially you can do this on sites elsewhere with cash out/partial cashout, i am not really one to cash out really unless it looks too good not too (which is rare) or if late in the game and you are essentially getting the full pay out.
The thing which the exchange really sells, is that you are just matching/laying bets with other customers. So it's not always the same odds you would get if you choose to bet directly with the bookies, how would you suggest this matches up? is there value to be looked around, again is it worth it if you stake small amounts and treat like other bookies and find the best price (which people advise you to do) or is it more for the bigger bets which give you more opportunity than essentially the cashout. if that makes sense? Sorry more questions but just trying to get from a punters perspective.
With a traditional bookmaker (corals/ Ladbrokes etc)they offer a price about an event , and you as a punter will take that price and BACK your selection. Obviously checking all the bookmakers prices to ensure you Back at the best price. So in this case if you went to Coral and had a bet on Man City to beat Wolves 2-1 you may have got 10/1, a traditional transaction.
A Betting Exchange (Betfair/ Betdaq) will not only allow you to BACK your selection, it will also allow you to LAY a bet. So if I LAY the score of City win 2-1 at 11 then I am offering that price to other punters, if they take me up and place a bet of £10 then, I am risking £100 (Says 11 but that includes the original stake). So I am now taking the role as a bookmaker. So whilst I lose £100 if the game ends up 2-1 to City, any other score wins me the punters £10.
So looking at the screen shot above you can see the now impossible results like 0-0 and 0-1 are put in at 1000, this is basically saying these are closed off, as that result is no longer possible. The current score at 46 minutes is 0-2 to City. If I wish to BACK CIty to win at the current 2-0 score I can take a price of 4.9 to 1 including my stake so a 3.9 profit. If I think their will be further goals and that the game will not end 0-2 I can LAY 0-2 at 5 so giving the backer a 4/1 profit if they are correct the game ends 0-2.
CAFCSAYER placed a BACK BET OF £104.21p that the score would be 1-2 to Man City. You can see that the 1-2 score has the green figures £875.52 next to it indicating the profit his £104.21p will pay if the final score is correct. The red figure of £104.21p against all other scores shows his loss if that score ends up being correct.
You can see that at this stage in the game, the market indicates that 0-3 is the fav score choice. As the current score of 0-2 can be backed at 4.9 whilst 0-3 can be backed at 3.95, and 1-3 can be backed at 11. These prices are constantly changing as the game progresses. Either being moved to 1000 if no longer possible, or getting bigger or smaller, as they become more or less likely.
At 78 minutes the score moved to 1-2 , at this point I would guess the price to back a 1-2 final score would be quoted at 3. This price would then get shorter and shorter as the final minutes passed.
At 90 minutes an additional 5 mins was announced. I would guess by now the price is 1.25. So put on £1 to collect £1.25p or 1/4 on.
CAFCSAYER could at this point have said I’m going to guarantee a profit. He could have LAYED the 1-2 score to another punter at 1.25. So if he was prepared to put up £100, he would collect £400 If there was another goal. If the score stayed at 1-2 he would lose £100. But, as he is collecting £875.52, this just means he has lost a small bit of his profit.
So in 95 mins City score and 1-3 was final score. CAFCSAYER loses £104.21. Had he laid the 1-2 score at 90 minutes he would have collected £400 off the punter, who’s bet he laid. So would still have made a £395.71p profit.
WH boosted KDB to have two shots or more on target last night to 4/1. It came in after 18 minutes, beautiful stuff.
Sky do this boost alot with KDB, it really depends it looks good value as he takes free kicks/penalties. But also he doesn't always get into the box much and does alot of the creating / works hard. You get games where he seems to get it easy others where he doesn't have any. On paper always looks good but can see why they persist as he doesn't always get the chances or shoot from distance as often as you think.
With a traditional bookmaker (corals/ Ladbrokes etc)they offer a price about an event , and you as a punter will take that price and BACK your selection. Obviously checking all the bookmakers prices to ensure you Back at the best price. So in this case if you went to Coral and had a bet on Man City to beat Wolves 2-1 you may have got 10/1, a traditional transaction.
A Betting Exchange (Betfair/ Betdaq) will not only allow you to BACK your selection, it will also allow you to LAY a bet. So if I LAY the score of City win 2-1 at 11 then I am offering that price to other punters, if they take me up and place a bet of £10 then, I am risking £100 (Says 11 but that includes the original stake). So I am now taking the role as a bookmaker. So whilst I lose £100 if the game ends up 2-1 to City, any other score wins me the punters £10.
So looking at the screen shot above you can see the now impossible results like 0-0 and 0-1 are put in at 1000, this is basically saying these are closed off, as that result is no longer possible. The current score at 46 minutes is 0-2 to City. If I wish to BACK CIty to win at the current 2-0 score I can take a price of 4.9 to 1 including my stake so a 3.9 profit. If I think their will be further goals and that the game will not end 0-2 I can LAY 0-2 at 5 so giving the backer a 4/1 profit if they are correct the game ends 0-2.
CAFCSAYER placed a BACK BET OF £104.21p that the score would be 1-2 to Man City. You can see that the 1-2 score has the green figures £875.52 next to it indicating the profit his £104.21p will pay if the final score is correct. The red figure of £104.21p against all other scores shows his loss if that score ends up being correct.
You can see that at this stage in the game, the market indicates that 0-3 is the fav score choice. As the current score of 0-2 can be backed at 4.9 whilst 0-3 can be backed at 3.95, and 1-3 can be backed at 11. These prices are constantly changing as the game progresses. Either being moved to 1000 if no longer possible, or getting bigger or smaller, as they become more or less likely.
At 78 minutes the score moved to 1-2 , at this point I would guess the price to back a 1-2 final score would be quoted at 3. This price would then get shorter and shorter as the final minutes passed.
At 90 minutes an additional 5 mins was announced. I would guess by now the price is 1.25. So put on £1 to collect £1.25p or 1/4 on.
CAFCSAYER could at this point have said I’m going to guarantee a profit. He could have LAYED the 1-2 score to another punter at 1.25. So if he was prepared to put up £100, he would collect £400 If there was another goal. If the score stayed at 1-2 he would lose £100. But, as he is collecting £875.52, this just means he has lost a small bit of his profit.
So in 95 mins City score and 1-3 was final score. CAFCSAYER loses £104.21. Had he laid the 1-2 score at 90 minutes he would have collected £400 off the punter, who’s bet he laid. So would still have made a £395.71p profit.
SIMPLES... ??
Again perfect explanation, i got parts of it originally but never really seen the comparison. I do occasionally lay off on other sites when i think its worthwhile to guarantee a profit, so it essentially is doing that.
@Addick Addict thanks that makes alot of sense, i appreciate you taking the time to write that and put it in layman's terms.
Essentially you can do this on sites elsewhere with cash out/partial cashout, i am not really one to cash out really unless it looks too good not too (which is rare) or if late in the game and you are essentially getting the full pay out.
The thing which the exchange really sells, is that you are just matching/laying bets with other customers. So it's not always the same odds you would get if you choose to bet directly with the bookies, how would you suggest this matches up? is there value to be looked around, again is it worth it if you stake small amounts and treat like other bookies and find the best price (which people advice you to do) or is it more for the bigger bets which give you more opportunity than essentially the cashout. if that makes sense? Sorry more questions but just trying to get from a punters perspective.
The difference between the bookies and exchange is margins - and I am specifically talking, for comparison purposes, about an exchange market where there is proper liquidity e.g. the in running market of a Premier League game e.g. the Wolves/Man City/The Draw market of last night's game. The lay price of City winning on Betfair will be better value than a "cash out" from a bookie.
That said, you will find it difficult to lay back in fringe markets on Betfair simply because you won't find the liquidity to be able to do so at a value price. You could try putting up your own lay price but it might not get matched before events take over.
Being a cynic, I have always held the view that if a bookie is offering you a cash out on an event there must be something in it for them doing so.
The other thing I should add is that some traders will always take a profit on Betfair but also get out pretty quick when they see things going the wrong way purely to minimise their losses. But, most of the time. these aren't recreational gamblers in the true sense but more akin to people who enjoy trading on the stock market. I have another friend who has made a living trading a book i.e. he lays all the options and tries to build in a margin for himself.
There is one rider to all of this and that is that for the 0.5% of users that are successful on the Betfair Exchange that make a lifetime profit of over a certain amount they will implement what's known as a "Premium Charge" which will be anything between 20% and 60% of your profit!!!
I'm 2/2 in the American Football this year. I only have 3 or 4 in my accumulators and this early in the season, with hardly any crowds in (27k for the Cowboys I suppose) home form doesn't add as much to chances.
So, I've gone from £10 to £370. I'm withdrawing £220 and will start with £150 next week.
For reference, I've backed : -
Jacskonville to beat Miami @ 6/10
49ers to beat Giants @ 1/2 (Saiquon injured for the season destroys Giants' offense)
Can someone explain the betfair screenshot to me please.
The bet was £104.21 to win £875.52 but this snapshot was taken when the score was 0-2 after 46 minutes (as shown at the top). The cashout at this time was £81.64 (i.e. a loss of £22.57).
The prices and cashout move in accordance with the score and CAFCsayer could have taken (as confirmed in a post above) a cashout of £948 for a profit of £844 with two minutes to go i.e. at a lay price by my calculation, of 1.05, or 1/20 in old money.
I worked for Betfair for over a decade and have witnessed gamblers (one in particular) actually back at 1.05 with two minutes to go for the sort of trade of £10,000 to win £500 because, actually, that is, in their opinion, a way of buying money. The issue, of course, is that if a goal is scored more than once in 20 you are a big loser.
My son is a professional trader (mostly on cricket) and he will not trade out a position unless the price is right to do so. Someone I used to work with is now a multi millionaire from trading and I recall the time when he was following, at his sister's wedding, the final round of a golf tournament, having backed the five shot leader with nine holes to play to win £100K (to a stake of £500). Again, he didn't cash out because, in his opinion, the price for the golfer capitulating wasn't right. But his golfer lost in a play off - he took that in a very stoic manner because he understood the risk of doing that.
Some people always cash out. Others never do so. And some will look at the circumstances that prevail and the price on offer. Hindsight is wonderful but, whether to do so, can be a subjective decision. At what point do you do so? With 15 minutes to go and possibly give half your profit back - and regret doing that when you had it right all along?
It's all a question of "feel" and probably, in the case of football, how open the game is. City do not have a water tight defence but do have the capability of hitting a side on the counter attack in a nano second whereas some games you look at probably wouldn't have a goal if they played for a month!
The final factor is how big your bank is. Can you afford not to take that cash out and ride the storm should things go against you?
Thanks, I thought he had had loads of bets at £104.21 but I see now that is how much he loses for all those other scores.
@Addick Addict thanks that makes alot of sense, i appreciate you taking the time to write that and put it in layman's terms.
Essentially you can do this on sites elsewhere with cash out/partial cashout, i am not really one to cash out really unless it looks too good not too (which is rare) or if late in the game and you are essentially getting the full pay out.
The thing which the exchange really sells, is that you are just matching/laying bets with other customers. So it's not always the same odds you would get if you choose to bet directly with the bookies, how would you suggest this matches up? is there value to be looked around, again is it worth it if you stake small amounts and treat like other bookies and find the best price (which people advice you to do) or is it more for the bigger bets which give you more opportunity than essentially the cashout. if that makes sense? Sorry more questions but just trying to get from a punters perspective.
The difference between the bookies and exchange is margins - and I am specifically talking, for comparison purposes, about an exchange market where there is proper liquidity e.g. the in running market of a Premier League game e.g. the Wolves/Man City/The Draw market of last night's game. The lay price of City winning on Betfair will be better value than a "cash out" from a bookie.
That said, you will find it difficult to lay back in fringe markets on Betfair simply because you won't find the liquidity to be able to do so at a value price. You could try putting up your own lay price but it might not get matched before events take over.
Being a cynic, I have always held the view that if a bookie is offering you a cash out on an event there must be something in it for them doing so.
I did ask @bobmunro once what the profit was to the bookies from people cashing out early and think he said 2-3 %
@Addick Addict thanks that makes alot of sense, i appreciate you taking the time to write that and put it in layman's terms.
Essentially you can do this on sites elsewhere with cash out/partial cashout, i am not really one to cash out really unless it looks too good not too (which is rare) or if late in the game and you are essentially getting the full pay out.
The thing which the exchange really sells, is that you are just matching/laying bets with other customers. So it's not always the same odds you would get if you choose to bet directly with the bookies, how would you suggest this matches up? is there value to be looked around, again is it worth it if you stake small amounts and treat like other bookies and find the best price (which people advice you to do) or is it more for the bigger bets which give you more opportunity than essentially the cashout. if that makes sense? Sorry more questions but just trying to get from a punters perspective.
The difference between the bookies and exchange is margins - and I am specifically talking, for comparison purposes, about an exchange market where there is proper liquidity e.g. the in running market of a Premier League game e.g. the Wolves/Man City/The Draw market of last night's game. The lay price of City winning on Betfair will be better value than a "cash out" from a bookie.
That said, you will find it difficult to lay back in fringe markets on Betfair simply because you won't find the liquidity to be able to do so at a value price. You could try putting up your own lay price but it might not get matched before events take over.
Being a cynic, I have always held the view that if a bookie is offering you a cash out on an event there must be something in it for them doing so.
I did ask @bobmunro once what the profit was to the bookies from people cashing out early and think he said 2-3 %
Presumably, though, that 2%-3% is after taking into account all those that encashed early and would have lost had they stayed with their bet to the end. Not doubting @bobmunro for one minute but I have noticed that Bet365's cash outs aren't as generous as they once were but that could be just for me!
just had a bet on us to win the league 25/1 on spreadEX
Also just gone in on sky bet, EW should be a banker 20/1, £25ew. nearly went for a £100 lol Has a nice win yesterday 7 fold and day before should have won but backed Preston as the one underdog.
Comments
Essentially you can do this on sites elsewhere with cash out/partial cashout, i am not really one to cash out really unless it looks too good not too (which is rare) or if late in the game and you are essentially getting the full pay out.
The thing which the exchange really sells, is that you are just matching/laying bets with other customers. So it's not always the same odds you would get if you choose to bet directly with the bookies, how would you suggest this matches up? is there value to be looked around, again is it worth it if you stake small amounts and treat like other bookies and find the best price (which people advise you to do) or is it more for the bigger bets which give you more opportunity than essentially the cashout. if that makes sense? Sorry more questions but just trying to get from a punters perspective.
A Betting Exchange (Betfair/ Betdaq) will not only allow you to BACK your selection, it will also allow you to LAY a bet. So if I LAY the score of City win 2-1 at 11 then I am offering that price to other punters, if they take me up and place a bet of £10 then, I am risking £100 (Says 11 but that includes the original stake). So I am now taking the role as a bookmaker. So whilst I lose £100 if the game ends up 2-1 to City, any other score wins me the punters £10.
So looking at the screen shot above you can see the now impossible results like 0-0 and 0-1 are put in at 1000, this is basically saying these are closed off, as that result is no longer possible. The current score at 46 minutes is 0-2 to City. If I wish to BACK CIty to win at the current 2-0 score I can take a price of 4.9 to 1 including my stake so a 3.9 profit. If I think their will be further goals and that the game will not end 0-2 I can LAY 0-2 at 5 so giving the backer a 4/1 profit if they are correct the game ends 0-2.
So in 95 mins City score and 1-3 was final score. CAFCSAYER loses £104.21. Had he laid the 1-2 score at 90 minutes he would have collected £400 off the punter, who’s bet he laid. So would still have made a £395.71p profit.
That said, you will find it difficult to lay back in fringe markets on Betfair simply because you won't find the liquidity to be able to do so at a value price. You could try putting up your own lay price but it might not get matched before events take over.
Being a cynic, I have always held the view that if a bookie is offering you a cash out on an event there must be something in it for them doing so.
There is one rider to all of this and that is that for the 0.5% of users that are successful on the Betfair Exchange that make a lifetime profit of over a certain amount they will implement what's known as a "Premium Charge" which will be anything between 20% and 60% of your profit!!!
I'm 2/2 in the American Football this year. I only have 3 or 4 in my accumulators and this early in the season, with hardly any crowds in (27k for the Cowboys I suppose) home form doesn't add as much to chances.
So, I've gone from £10 to £370. I'm withdrawing £220 and will start with £150 next week.
For reference, I've backed : -
Jacskonville to beat Miami @ 6/10
49ers to beat Giants @ 1/2 (Saiquon injured for the season destroys Giants' offense)
Seattle to beat Cowboys @ 4/9
Arizona to beat Detroit @ 2/5
£150 will pay out £720 if it come in.
2-1 arsenal
Brighton 2-1
Troy parrot anytime for the scum
Troy parrot fgs
Singles and combinations of the above tonight
Pays just over Evens
TICK!
City 2-0 Bournemouth
8/1 insurplus 7.00 looks good value
Has a nice win yesterday 7 fold and day before should have won but backed Preston as the one underdog.
PP only offering 14-1