Shishkin and envoi Allen to win any race 10/1 Shishkin any race at 6/1
out of the faves who do you see getting beat - this year there are 7 even or better faves last year was same as only 1 won ( envoi Allen )
Of the Evs or better favs last year (think there were only six):
- Benie des Dieux beaten 1/2 length by a very, VERY good horse (and 2fav) - Carefully Selected being odds-on was always bizarre (literally no-one mentioned him CS on the thread I noticed) - Envoi Allen won well (RIP Easywork in 2nd) - Defi Du Seuil had a problem didn't he? And was never, ever travelling. Barry had him out in the car park, too. But yeah, that was probably the least explainable - Easysland a worthy 2nd fav, and the XC is a unique race for the Festival - Paisley Park had a heart fibrillation
I don't think that there are necessarily too many holes in the evens or better favourites this year. I can only find 4 btw according to Oddschecker? Shishkin of these is the one I'm least sure about - Energumene could be a tank.
Monkfish looks so solid; Chacun Pour Soi equally so (but I'm more than happy to take him on with Nube Negra/Altior and be made to look a fool); Envoi Allen looks a bit better than Energumene (if he goes Marsh).
I think Easysland; Appreciate It; and Concertista are all very solid, and Royale Pagaille intrigues me (of those slightly better than 2/1).
www.thestatsdontlie.com and look at their Cheltenham Festival section. It gives you all the stats for the winners from the last 12 years and what to look out for and what to avoid.
I only use trends for the Festival and also only use my own I’ve built up over the years to help whittle down the fields.I update mine each year and only use ones that have found the winner of each race every year for the past ten years,as soon as a trend is broken I drop it until it builds up to another ten consecutive years.Two races this year don’t yet have enough trends so the Mares hurdle is past five years and obviously none for the new race this year.I will list each race for you and they me be of some help or no help whatsoever?
DAY ONE.......... SUPREME Two hurdle runs or more Rated 142+ No headgear
ARKLE Won last time out 6-8 year old
ULTIMA Top 6 last time out Won over 3 mile + 10 or less handicap races Ran in a Grade One or Two race Must of had a hurdles win No P.Nichols runners
CHAMPION HURDLE Rated 157+ Ran in previous 77 days 9 year old or younger
MARES HURDLE Rated 142+ Within 12lbs of top rated Top 4 in the betting No British bred No headgear No ex flat horse
BOODLES Non handicap last run Rated under 140 No W.Mullins,P.Hobbs or V.Williams runners No previous Cheltenham run Weight range 10st 6lbs-11st 8lbs No British bred Hurdle debut after Nov 20th previous year
NH CHASE Rated 127+ Within 14lbs of top rated Last race 2m4f-3m2f No P.Nichols or N.Henderson runners 16/1 or shorter
DAY TWO........ BALLYMORE 5 or 6 year old Rated 142+ 27+ days since last ran 2-4 hurdle races Top 2 last race Won a bumper
FESTIVAL CHASE 6-8 year old Rated 150+ 2-5 chase races Hurdles win and less than 10 hurdle races Ran in a graded novice chase Chase debut previous year No mares No headgear
CORAL No 40/1+ No bottom weight No graded race winners No novice race last time out No chase run last time out
CHAMPION CHASE 7-10 year old Last race a Grade 1 or 2 Rated 159+ Last race 32-95 days No W.Mullins runners
CROSS COUNTRY 8 year old plus No W.Mullins or P.Nichols runners
GRAND ANNUAL 10 year old and under Rated 138+ Had a Grade 1 run No more than 8 career wins 25+ days since last run
BUMPER 5-6 year old Rated 118+ Won last race and by a length or more
DAY THREE........ MARSH Last race in graded company 31-80 days since last run 2-5 chase races Rated 144+ Within 14lbs of top rated 8 year old or younger
PERTEMPS No graded or listed race last time 3 or less handicap wins 2 or less hurdle wins Rated 138+ No bottom weight Last race not at Cheltenham
RYANAIR 7-10 year old Rated 161+ Last race in grade 1 or 2 4 or less runs this season No Festival debut
STAYERS 6-9 year old Last race graded company 46+ days since last race No headgear
FESTIVAL PLATE 11st 4lbs or less Rated 130-149 Last race a chase Must of had a top 2 finish within its last 3 races
MARES HURDLE 5-6 year old Top 3 last time out
KIM MUIR Rated 134-143 No French bred 11st 4lbs plus 2-6 runs that season 2 or less chase wins No 3-5lb claimers
DAY FOUR........... TRIUMPH Top 4 last race Last race 18-48 days Rated 140+
COUNTY 5,6 and 8 year old (no 7yo) 5 or less career wins 2 or less handicap wins No 5-7lb claimers
ALBERT BARTLETT 2m4f-3m last race No more than 2 grade 1 runs 25+ days since last race
GOLD CUP Grade 1 winner 9 year old or younger
FOXHUNTERS and MARES CHASE No 10 year trends
MARTIN PIPE 7 year old or younger Rated 133+ No more than 2 wins that season No Class 2 last race 33/1 or under Ran within the last 90 days Must of had at least one race that season 11st 1lbs +
Two strong trends that have occurred just the last five years maybe worth considering if the previous posts have bored you senseless or you don’t want to go through that lot are as follows........
20+ of the 28 races each festival for past five years have been won by the following trainers so you just may want to concentrate on them? W.Mullins Denise Foster (scumbag elliott) N.Henderson P.Nicholls D.Skelton J.Harrington C.Tizzard P.Hobbs J.O Brien
Also in the handicap races only if you had backed the top 6 in betting blind you would of made a profit with a 70%+ strike rate over the past five years
1.20 ballyadam ( ante post 20/1 ) 1.55 shishkin ( ante post 6/1 ) 2.30 happygolucky 8/1 3.05 goshen ( ante post 6/1 ) 3.40 black tears ew 4.15 glorious zoff 4.50 royalle perguille ( on at 11/4 nrnb likely going gold cup ) snow leopardess 33/1 ew
1.20 ballyadam ( ante post 20/1 ) 1.55 shishkin ( ante post 6/1 ) 2.30 happygolucky 8/1 3.05 goshen ( ante post 6/1 ) 3.40 black tears ew 4.15 glorious zoff 4.50 royalle perguille ( on at 11/4 nrnb likely going gold cup ) snow leopardess 33/1 ew
I'm with you on the first three (unfortunately nowhere near that price for Shishkin though, he's in a couple of accas around evens, so this morning's news is good for me but leaves a slightly disappointing taste), but have Happygolucky at 25s and refreshed at 14s. That's probably my favourite play of the festival if it comes off (touch wood).
I probably will just have a watch of the Champion Hurdle. That's gonna be a great race.
I have Black Tears too (25s e/w) so hope she can run a big race.
For the Boodles I have small plays on Houx Gris, Homme Public and Busselton all at comfortably longer odds than they currently are. Never had much luck in it so nothing more than those.
Just a minor point but I cannot, for the life of me, comprehend why they appear to be intent on debuting Le Breuil in the XC on Wednesday at level weights (thus, badly off with half the field and 2 stone badly off with the 2 market favs), rather than going to Uttoxeter for the Midlands Grand National 3 days later, for a trip and likely ground that plays much more to his (certainly to my eye, evident) needs, and in which he's highly likely to be shouldering less than 11 stone (10.05 if Yala Enki runs). WTF?
Surely almost all prices will shorten the closer we get to the off ?
Some will but certainly not all and it all depends at what point you back your selection.
Currently most bookmakers are offering "non runner, no bet" (but not best odds guaranteed) so they have to build a bigger margin for themselves. Appreciate It, for example, is best price 11/8 with the bookies but is available at 2.76 (7/4 on Betfair). A non runner in the Betfair book would, of course, mean a loser for backers.
On the morning of each day all the bookies will be competing for punters' business so they will be happier to sacrifice a bit of their margin for greater turnover. Of course, the SP will be less generous because bookies won't want the morning backers to be able to avail themselves of that best odds guaranteed concession, particularly for those runners that are at the front of the market and they want to take advantage of punters who are backing late not being quite so price sensitive as those who went in earlier.
The Grand National is a classic example of this where the bookmakers SP over round is usually something that Dick Turpin would have been proud of!!!!
Colin Tizzard has said that this will be his last festival, he's soon to be 65 and has had enough. Joe will take over the licence. It seems a very sad situation. Tizzard has had a poor season by his standards and it seems that the death of his daughter has affected him deeply. I've always had a soft spot for Colin, obviously a tough ol boy but he always seems honest and unassuming. He'll be missed
Comments
- Benie des Dieux beaten 1/2 length by a very, VERY good horse (and 2fav)
- Carefully Selected being odds-on was always bizarre (literally no-one mentioned him CS on the thread I noticed)
- Envoi Allen won well (RIP Easywork in 2nd)
- Defi Du Seuil had a problem didn't he? And was never, ever travelling. Barry had him out in the car park, too. But yeah, that was probably the least explainable
- Easysland a worthy 2nd fav, and the XC is a unique race for the Festival
- Paisley Park had a heart fibrillation
I don't think that there are necessarily too many holes in the evens or better favourites this year. I can only find 4 btw according to Oddschecker? Shishkin of these is the one I'm least sure about - Energumene could be a tank.
Monkfish looks so solid; Chacun Pour Soi equally so (but I'm more than happy to take him on with Nube Negra/Altior and be made to look a fool); Envoi Allen looks a bit better than Energumene (if he goes Marsh).
I think Easysland; Appreciate It; and Concertista are all very solid, and Royale Pagaille intrigues me (of those slightly better than 2/1).
Tuesday
Ultima - Lieutenant Rocco
Thursday
Pertemps - Bosses Oscar
Stayers - Bachasson (ew)
Friday
Triumph - Zanahiyr
County - Eclair de Beaufeu
Albert Bartlett - Stattler (backed at 12s)
SUPREME
Two hurdle runs or more
Rated 142+
No headgear
ARKLE
Won last time out
6-8 year old
ULTIMA
Top 6 last time out
Won over 3 mile +
10 or less handicap races
Ran in a Grade One or Two race
Must of had a hurdles win
No P.Nichols runners
CHAMPION HURDLE
Rated 157+
Ran in previous 77 days
9 year old or younger
MARES HURDLE
Rated 142+
Within 12lbs of top rated
Top 4 in the betting
No British bred
No headgear
No ex flat horse
BOODLES
Non handicap last run
Rated under 140
No W.Mullins,P.Hobbs or V.Williams runners
No previous Cheltenham run
Weight range 10st 6lbs-11st 8lbs
No British bred
Hurdle debut after Nov 20th previous year
NH CHASE
Rated 127+
Within 14lbs of top rated
Last race 2m4f-3m2f
No P.Nichols or N.Henderson runners
16/1 or shorter
BALLYMORE
5 or 6 year old
Rated 142+
27+ days since last ran
2-4 hurdle races
Top 2 last race
Won a bumper
FESTIVAL CHASE
6-8 year old
Rated 150+
2-5 chase races
Hurdles win and less than 10 hurdle races
Ran in a graded novice chase
Chase debut previous year
No mares
No headgear
CORAL
No 40/1+
No bottom weight
No graded race winners
No novice race last time out
No chase run last time out
CHAMPION CHASE
7-10 year old
Last race a Grade 1 or 2
Rated 159+
Last race 32-95 days
No W.Mullins runners
CROSS COUNTRY
8 year old plus
No W.Mullins or P.Nichols runners
GRAND ANNUAL
10 year old and under
Rated 138+
Had a Grade 1 run
No more than 8 career wins
25+ days since last run
BUMPER
5-6 year old
Rated 118+
Won last race and by a length or more
MARSH
Last race in graded company
31-80 days since last run
2-5 chase races
Rated 144+
Within 14lbs of top rated
8 year old or younger
PERTEMPS
No graded or listed race last time
3 or less handicap wins
2 or less hurdle wins
Rated 138+
No bottom weight
Last race not at Cheltenham
RYANAIR
7-10 year old
Rated 161+
Last race in grade 1 or 2
4 or less runs this season
No Festival debut
STAYERS
6-9 year old
Last race graded company
46+ days since last race
No headgear
FESTIVAL PLATE
11st 4lbs or less
Rated 130-149
Last race a chase
Must of had a top 2 finish within its last 3 races
MARES HURDLE
5-6 year old
Top 3 last time out
KIM MUIR
Rated 134-143
No French bred
11st 4lbs plus
2-6 runs that season
2 or less chase wins
No 3-5lb claimers
TRIUMPH
Top 4 last race
Last race 18-48 days
Rated 140+
COUNTY
5,6 and 8 year old (no 7yo)
5 or less career wins
2 or less handicap wins
No 5-7lb claimers
ALBERT BARTLETT
2m4f-3m last race
No more than 2 grade 1 runs
25+ days since last race
GOLD CUP
Grade 1 winner
9 year old or younger
FOXHUNTERS and MARES CHASE
No 10 year trends
MARTIN PIPE
7 year old or younger
Rated 133+
No more than 2 wins that season
No Class 2 last race
33/1 or under
Ran within the last 90 days
Must of had at least one race that season
11st 1lbs +
20+ of the 28 races each festival for past five years have been won by the following trainers so you just may want to concentrate on them?
W.Mullins
Denise Foster (scumbag elliott)
N.Henderson
P.Nicholls
D.Skelton
J.Harrington
C.Tizzard
P.Hobbs
J.O Brien
Also in the handicap races only if you had backed the top 6 in betting blind you would of made a profit with a 70%+ strike rate over the past five years
I’m not a racing fan so the content means nothing to me, but there’s been a lot of effort put into it so I’m sure it’s of some use
1.20 ballyadam ( ante post 20/1 )
1.55 shishkin ( ante post 6/1 )
2.30 happygolucky 8/1
3.05 goshen ( ante post 6/1 )
3.40 black tears ew
4.15 glorious zoff
4.50 royalle perguille ( on at 11/4 nrnb likely going gold cup ) snow leopardess 33/1 ew
drifted to 16/1 on the exchanges and now market is taken down
I probably will just have a watch of the Champion Hurdle. That's gonna be a great race.
I have Black Tears too (25s e/w) so hope she can run a big race.
For the Boodles I have small plays on Houx Gris, Homme Public and Busselton all at comfortably longer odds than they currently are. Never had much luck in it so nothing more than those.
NHC I'll wait til the day.
WTF?
Currently most bookmakers are offering "non runner, no bet" (but not best odds guaranteed) so they have to build a bigger margin for themselves. Appreciate It, for example, is best price 11/8 with the bookies but is available at 2.76 (7/4 on Betfair). A non runner in the Betfair book would, of course, mean a loser for backers.
On the morning of each day all the bookies will be competing for punters' business so they will be happier to sacrifice a bit of their margin for greater turnover. Of course, the SP will be less generous because bookies won't want the morning backers to be able to avail themselves of that best odds guaranteed concession, particularly for those runners that are at the front of the market and they want to take advantage of punters who are backing late not being quite so price sensitive as those who went in earlier.
The Grand National is a classic example of this where the bookmakers SP over round is usually something that Dick Turpin would have been proud of!!!!
quite a few of the races could be binned tbh.