We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
If you look at the points per game of the top 6 and extrapolate that out, I think its looking more like 78 points will be need this year. Always hard to predict because points aren't collected in a linear fashion and teams can wobble or accelerate at the business end of the season, but I think it'll be a higher than average amount needed.
I reckon we'll make top 8 and finish on something like 72 points, as long as we keep key players fit (CM, Innis, Clare, Dobson, Washington, and at least one of Stockley or Chuks at all times). That'd actually be a fantastic total given how the season started, but it won't be enough to force into the play-offs.
We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
If you look at the points per game of the top 6 and extrapolate that out, I think its looking more like 78 points will be need this year. Always hard to predict because points aren't collected in a linear fashion and teams can wobble or accelerate at the business end of the season, but I think it'll be a higher than average amount needed.
I reckon we'll make top 8 and finish on something like 72 points, as long as we keep key players fit (CM, Innis, Clare, Dobson, Washington, and at least one of Stockley or Chuks at all times). That'd actually be a fantastic total given how the season started, but it won't be enough to force into the play-offs.
The table was looking similar at this point last year, and the year before that when it got curtailed... I'm still confident that it'll end up being 75 or more gets in.
We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
If we get 12 wins/ 36 points that puts us on 75. Wycombe would only need 23 points from their remaining 17 games to get that many.
The day we lost to Blackpool 3-0 last season, both Portsmouth and Doncaster were sitting in the top six.
To get to seventy five, Portsmouth only needed 23 points from 16 & Doncaster needed 26 from 18. Neither of them managed it and Blackpool got in from 13th, Oxford got in from 9th. The top six look impenetrable, but they do slip up as the pressure from teams below gets to them.
(Portsmouth got 20 from 16, Doncaster got 15 from 18.)
We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
If we get 12 wins/ 36 points that puts us on 75. Wycombe would only need 23 points from their remaining 17 games to get that many.
The day we lost to Blackpool 3-0 last season, both Portsmouth and Doncaster were sitting in the top six.
To get to seventy five, Portsmouth only needed 23 points from 16 & Doncaster needed 26 from 18. Neither of them managed it and Blackpool got in from 13th, Oxford got in from 9th. The top six look impenetrable, but they do slip up as the pressure from teams below gets to them.
(Portsmouth got 20 from 16, Doncaster got 15 from 18.)
Just a couple of weeks ago Sunderland looked odds on now unless they turn around dramatically they could easily miss out. The teams that look certain nearly always have a bad run. All we can hope is we have had ours
We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
If we get 12 wins/ 36 points that puts us on 75. Wycombe would only need 23 points from their remaining 17 games to get that many.
The day we lost to Blackpool 3-0 last season, both Portsmouth and Doncaster were sitting in the top six.
To get to seventy five, Portsmouth only needed 23 points from 16 & Doncaster needed 26 from 18. Neither of them managed it and Blackpool got in from 13th, Oxford got in from 9th. The top six look impenetrable, but they do slip up as the pressure from teams below gets to them.
(Portsmouth got 20 from 16, Doncaster got 15 from 18.)
We need to win 13 of the last 17 to have any chance
13 wins would be guaranteed play-offs, barring a crazy year where it takes 80+ to make the top six.
To get to 75 (enough in each of the last ten seasons), we need:
12 wins (5 losses) 11 wins & 3 draws (3 losses) 10 wins & 6 draws (1 loss)
Numbers look virtually impossible. Anything fewer than 4 points from Bolton & Wigan and is definitely over for me.
Two draws from what is likely to be our toughest week of the season keeps us in it. We’d have to back it up with wins against Oxford and MK Dons at the Valley.
If we get 8 points from these 4 games the play offs are on and would be deserved.
I'm convinced we won't finish in the play offs, but JJ must convince the players it's possible until the large lady starts singing and we finish 8th to 10th. Superb decision by TS to give the Job to Jackson who will take Cafc up next season in 1st or 2nd place.
This. If we have more than seven of that lot as regular starters next season then we won’t. As for this season, no chance of the play offs. Will finish 9th or 10th.
1) avoid relegation 2) test different formations so we are more flexible next season. Can’t play 3-5-2 all the time 3) identify the players to keep 4) identify players to sign 5) Test 2 or 3 promising youngsters
I know the above is a statement of the obvious but, assuming we make ourselves safe very soon, we could have the longest pre season in our history - important that we use that time wisely.
Who in this team regularly performs well enough at this level to get us out of it? Dobson, Inniss, Stockley, Chuks and maybe Clare. That's it.
Early days of course but I would hope Fraser joins that list and possibly Lavelle too. That would make 7 (subject to fitness). It's a reasonable start and we have plenty of decent squad players for L1 to make up numbers. In the summer we will need 10 new players or so and I would expect 4-5 loans. The question is whether we can get loans like Cullen, Beilik, Gallagher or loans like Leko, Lee, John.
Chucks and Inniss won’t be there for a full season going on past performance…… so already we’ll be without two of our better players for a chunk of the season
No. If we had won last night and at the weekend, I would have been more hopeful, but it was not just the loss, but the manner of the loss yesterday. Last two games we have looked pretty frail at the back, having been really strong in that department at the start of Jacko’s reign. Hardly a solid play off pursuing foundation to build from… A shame, but more lessons learned this season and perhaps next season it will click.
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https://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/comment/4587747/#Comment_4587747
To get to seventy five, Portsmouth only needed 23 points from 16 & Doncaster needed 26 from 18. Neither of them managed it and Blackpool got in from 13th, Oxford got in from 9th. The top six look impenetrable, but they do slip up as the pressure from teams below gets to them.
(Portsmouth got 20 from 16, Doncaster got 15 from 18.)
Superb decision by TS to give the Job to Jackson who will take Cafc up next season in 1st or 2nd place.
12 wins (4 losses)
11 wins & 3 draws (2 losses)
10 wins & 6 draws
Wont get relegated & wont make top 6. Will be lucky to finish top half. Certainly wont get into the top 10.
1) avoid relegation
2) test different formations so we are more flexible next season. Can’t play 3-5-2 all the time
3) identify the players to keep
4) identify players to sign
5) Test 2 or 3 promising youngsters
I know the above is a statement of the obvious but, assuming we make ourselves safe very soon, we could have the longest pre season in our history - important that we use that time wisely.
Edit - Slightly unfair on Clare as we didn't play 3 at the back that season and I suspect he'd give Dijksteel a run for his money at right back.
That team was too good though, if we'd kept them together we would have finished mid table in The Champ
We need at least half a dozen first teamers for next season.