Gower continues to demonstrate how Sky were so foolish to let him go. Botham went at the same time and not someone who I, personally, miss but when one adds Holding, Bumble and very sadly now Warne to that list, that's five names that were very much once upon a time part of the Sky commentary diet that have now departed
I'd say a draw and an England win are roughly equally likely, but a lot depends on how many runs Root will declare ahead. 240 would be a brave, brave call, but an hour's slogging tomorrow will get to it
I'd say a draw and an England win are roughly equally likely, but a lot depends on how many runs Root will declare ahead. 240 would be a brave, brave call, but an hour's slogging tomorrow will get to it
WinLeuth
Draw - 50% England win - 50% West Indies win - 0%
Let's set them 260-270 in two sessions and then see if Lawrence and Root can bowl them out.
I'd say a draw and an England win are roughly equally likely, but a lot depends on how many runs Root will declare ahead. 240 would be a brave, brave call, but an hour's slogging tomorrow will get to it
WinLeuth
Draw - 50% England win - 50% West Indies win - 0%
Let's set them 260-270 in two sessions and then see if Lawrence and Root can bowl them out.
Draw 70% England 25% Windies 5%
Tough to get a result, but to tempt the Windies to go for it, they'll have to make the target achievable or else Brathwaite and co will just defend.
Those odds reflect the fact that if we are successful in setting a target then the wicket probably hasn't deteriorated sufficiently for our limited attack to bowl the Windies out (19 wickets have fallen in this Test for 354 overs and we haven't bowled them out inside 157 overs in the series) - and the target is unlikely to be enticing enough for the Windies to have a go. Equally, even if we were to offer them say 270 in 50 overs, the Windies know that should they make any real inroads towards the target we will then bowl negative lines (there are no automatic leg side wides or inner lines on the off side) and we will also have half a dozen on the boundary too. So it's difficult to see which scenario offers anyone much of a chance of wining.
Those odds reflect the fact that if we are successful in setting a target then the wicket probably hasn't deteriorated sufficiently for our limited attack to bowl the Windies out (19 wickets have fallen in this Test for 354 overs and we haven't bowled them out inside 157 overs in the series) - and the target is unlikely to be enticing enough for the Windies to have a go. Equally, even if we were to offer them say 270 in 50 overs, the Windies know that should they make any real inroads towards the target we will then bowl negative lines (there are no automatic leg side wides or inner lines on the off side) and we will also have half a dozen on the boundary too. So it's difficult to see which scenario offers anyone much of a chance of wining.
Those seem pretty realistic
I wonder what condition Leach's spinning finger will be in after his marathon effort over 2 days?
Those odds reflect the fact that if we are successful in setting a target then the wicket probably hasn't deteriorated sufficiently for our limited attack to bowl the Windies out (19 wickets have fallen in this Test for 354 overs and we haven't bowled them out inside 157 overs in the series) - and the target is unlikely to be enticing enough for the Windies to have a go. Equally, even if we were to offer them say 270 in 50 overs, the Windies know that should they make any real inroads towards the target we will then bowl negative lines (there are no automatic leg side wides or inner lines on the off side) and we will also have half a dozen on the boundary too. So it's difficult to see which scenario offers anyone much of a chance of wining.
Those odds seem about right.
It took us 170 odd overs to get them all out. If the Windies aren't tempted to go for a run chase we'll be lucky to get more than 2 or 3 out in 2 sessions.
"I'd say a draw and an England win are roughly equally likely, but a lot depends on how many runs Root will declare ahead. 240 would be a brave, brave call, but an hour's slogging tomorrow will get to it"
Maybe he thinks that Jaiyesimi and Omar Bogle can bowl us to victory.
Which is more or less what I thought last night. However, the 60 on the Windies might have been value had we lost the rest of our wickets trying to set that target and more so than the 9 on offer for England
Comments
Draw - 50%
England win - 50%
West Indies win - 0%
Let's set them 260-270 in two sessions and then see if Lawrence and Root can bowl them out.
England 25%
Windies 5%
Tough to get a result, but to tempt the Windies to go for it, they'll have to make the target achievable or else Brathwaite and co will just defend.
Draw 1.13 - 88%
England 9.80 - 10%
Windies 50.00 - 2%
Those odds reflect the fact that if we are successful in setting a target then the wicket probably hasn't deteriorated sufficiently for our limited attack to bowl the Windies out (19 wickets have fallen in this Test for 354 overs and we haven't bowled them out inside 157 overs in the series) - and the target is unlikely to be enticing enough for the Windies to have a go. Equally, even if we were to offer them say 270 in 50 overs, the Windies know that should they make any real inroads towards the target we will then bowl negative lines (there are no automatic leg side wides or inner lines on the off side) and we will also have half a dozen on the boundary too. So it's difficult to see which scenario offers anyone much of a chance of wining.
I wonder what condition Leach's spinning finger will be in after his marathon effort over 2 days?
It took us 170 odd overs to get them all out. If the Windies aren't tempted to go for a run chase we'll be lucky to get more than 2 or 3 out in 2 sessions.
"I'd say a draw and an England win are roughly equally likely, but a lot depends on how many runs Root will declare ahead. 240 would be a brave, brave call, but an hour's slogging tomorrow will get to it"
Maybe he thinks that Jaiyesimi and Omar Bogle can bowl us to victory.
you will see. it will become clear
TOMORROW
WinLeuth predicts both the draw and an England win ... equally.
So, the West Indies failure to win will become clear?
Riiight.
Stokes out and a lead of 206
163-5 and 259 ahead with 70 overs to go
89% draw
11% England
0% WI
Correction - 65 overs minimum
14-1 off 6 overs
23-2