OK, well I don't have to wait until morning to make my first decision.
IMHO there is now a <5% chance of this being an attritional GN (in which there are barely 10 finishers) BUT there is far higher chance of there being a material element of Good-to-Soft to the true going tomorrow. I don't care what the Official bullshit is.
My model (which is ground-agnostic - it's impossible to model all runners' definitive ground requirements now that so many young chases are contenders) reckons Kitty's Light has got a Winning Profile and I cashed out because it appeared near certain a few days ago that the ground would be at best Soft.
I've been burnt before when using my "judgement" to second guess my model and omit a Winning candidate (2018 Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings and 2019 Tiger AGAIN!!) and I'd rather be wrong in missing Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam go well than fuck it up again and not be on Kitty's and see him handle the ground to be in the mix at the business end.
So I've cashed out my Attritional Bets - combination of Top 5 and Top 10 doubles on Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam - and gone back in with KITTY'S LIGHT e/w 6 places at 12/1. Painful with the fall in price but 6 places is a tiny crumb of comfort Mulling over the lesser bets but will definitely be keeping Galia Des Liteaux. Again, the model rates her as one of the solid Place candidates, she has handled GS perfectly well in top company and it would be nuts to cash out a 50/1 slip. I may pair back the overweight place portion though.
Again, the model rates Glengouly - I'll keep him.
But may switch my interest in Farouk D'alene to Chemical Energy (who much prefers a decent surface but handled the Soft ground in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2023 festival well enough when 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil).
OK, well I don't have to wait until morning to make my first decision.
IMHO there is now a <5% chance of this being an attritional GN (in which there are barely 10 finishers) BUT there is far higher chance of there being a material element of Good-to-Soft to the true going tomorrow. I don't care what the Official bullshit is.
My model (which is ground-agnostic - it's impossible to model all runners' definitive ground requirements now that so many young chases are contenders) reckons Kitty's Light has got a Winning Profile and I cashed out because it appeared near certain a few days ago that the ground would be at best Soft.
I've been burnt before when using my "judgement" to second guess my model and omit a Winning candidate (2018 Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings and 2019 Tiger AGAIN!!) and I'd rather be wrong in missing Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam go well than fuck it up again and not be on Kitty's and see him handle the ground to be in the mix at the business end.
So I've cashed out my Attritional Bets - combination of Top 5 and Top 10 doubles on Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam - and gone back in with KITTY'S LIGHT e/w 6 places at 12/1. Painful with the fall in price but 6 places is a tiny crumb of comfort Mulling over the lesser bets but will definitely be keeping Galia Des Liteaux. Again, the model rates her as one of the solid Place candidates, she has handled GS perfectly well in top company and it would be nuts to cash out a 50/1 slip. I may pair back the overweight place portion though.
Again, the model rates Glengouly - I'll keep him.
But may switch my interest in Farouk D'alene to Chemical Energy (who much prefers a decent surface but handled the Soft ground in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2023 festival well enough when 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil).
Will sleep on that one.
I barely understood any of that but in Peanuts I believe! It's just a bit of fun for me and you make it a whole lot more fun as always with your analysis. Let's hope we can toast some winnings tomorrow.
Cheers @GreenWithEnvy Yeah, I do go off on one sometimes. in short, I’m now back 100% on my model’s top 7 ratings, all each way (I.e 1/2 stake on win and 1/2 on place at 1/5th the odds):
I Am Maximus
Mr Incredible (overweight)
Kitty’s Light
Limerick Lace
Galia Des Liteaux
Glengouly
Roi Mage
I’ve cashed out everything else except for a small e/w on Farouk D’alene at 125/1.
I placed my bets a couple of days ago so barring Nassalam ive got better odds than whats being offered now. Never have a clue what I'm doing but love the analysis and guidance from you Peanuts.
Delta Work
Panda Boy
Roi Mage
Galia Des Liteaux
Nassalam
Mr Incredible
I Am Maximus
Delta Work chosen as I vaguely recognised the name and I liked the Delta Force film with Chuck Norris. Panda Boy as one of my boys loves pandas. Gives an insight into my knowledge of horse racing.
I Am Maximus was the original ante post favourite until Corach Ramblers third place in the Gold Cup.
You’re absolutely right, though Mahler Mission (I think) was the fav before Maximus walloped Vanillier in the Bobbyjo.
Was that before the weights were announced?
No, the Bobbyjo was on the Saturday after the weights were allotted. just as well, cos the handicapper would have given Max another 6lbs based on that win. I am surprised he’s back to fav again. His tendency to jump left is a potential issue but on the other hand I’m not sure anything else makes for a more obvious fav. Meetingonthewaters would have been had he won the Ultima. The XC abandonment scuppered the chance for Minella Indo or Delta Work or Galvin to stake their claim. Ground is certainly not ideal for Kitty’s. Mr Incredible has a great chance but many pros and trend followers don’t like his campaign or quirkiness. Limerick Lace also has a great chance but it’s a bit of a stretch to think of a 7yo mare going off fav (unless Rachael were on her ) and Mahler Mission has been a bit out of the spotlight (and has too high a mark in my model’s and many others’ view). So maybe it’s logical it’s between Corach and Max but I think it’s JP’s big day today that’s put added market momentum into his runners.
I Am Maximus was the original ante post favourite until Corach Ramblers third place in the Gold Cup.
You’re absolutely right, though Mahler Mission (I think) was the fav before Maximus walloped Vanillier in the Bobbyjo.
Was that before the weights were announced?
No, the Bobbyjo was on the Saturday after the weights were allotted. just as well, cos the handicapper would have given Max another 6lbs based on that win. I am surprised he’s back to fav again. His tendency to jump left is a potential issue but on the other hand I’m not sure anything else makes for a more obvious fav. Meetingonthewaters would have been had he won the Ultima. The XC abandonment scuppered the chance for Minella Indo or Delta Work or Galvin to stake their claim. Ground is certainly not ideal for Kitty’s. Mr Incredible has a great chance but many pros and trend followers don’t like his campaign or quirkiness. Limerick Lace also has a great chance but it’s a bit of a stretch to think of a 7yo mare going off fav (unless Rachael were on her ) and Mahler Mission has been a bit out of the spotlight (and has too high a mark in my model’s and many others’ view). So maybe it’s logical it’s between Corach and Max but I think it’s JP’s big day today that’s put added market momentum into his runners.
Actually I think it was Vanillier that swept to the head of the market when the weights were announced, with punters thinking he was very kindly treated relative to Corach. And of course Max beating him comfortably was what propelled him to replace him. So yeap, despite the jumping concerns, he’s probably the logical fav.
Cheers @GreenWithEnvy Yeah, I do go off on one sometimes. in short, I’m now back 100% on my model’s top 7 ratings, all each way (I.e 1/2 stake on win and 1/2 on place at 1/5th the odds):
I Am Maximus
Mr Incredible (overweight)
Kitty’s Light
Limerick Lace
Galia Des Liteaux
Glengouly
Roi Mage
I’ve cashed out everything else except for a small e/w on Farouk D’alene at 125/1.
“Vanillier and Kitty's Light were the two horses who caught my eye when the weights came out and, with the ground nowhere near as bad as expected, they are very much back in play. “
… or as described by the Course. The word Heavy should have been nowhere in the going description this afternoon.
Apologies for doing the hokey-cokey with Kitty’s Light.
On ground that is 90% likely to ride like a mix of Soft and Good-to-Soft by 4pm tomorrow (whatever the official description) he cannot be ruled out and is most certainly back IN as regards my team.
I followed your lead in cashing out Kitty Light two days ago. I’d take that as a sign for everyone to load up and start scanning the cruise brochures:-)
as one of my mates said this morning as Brian Harman went +9, they’ll be films made about my betting prowess one day!
Cheers @GreenWithEnvy Yeah, I do go off on one sometimes. in short, I’m now back 100% on my model’s top 7 ratings, all each way (I.e 1/2 stake on win and 1/2 on place at 1/5th the odds):
I Am Maximus
Mr Incredible (overweight)
Kitty’s Light
Limerick Lace
Galia Des Liteaux
Glengouly
Roi Mage
I’ve cashed out everything else except for a small e/w on Farouk D’alene at 125/1.
Very glad you enjoy the thread. Fingers crossed.
Hi Peanuts - so are these your final picks then?
Just off to get the hammer for my piggy bank.
Sorry @“Off_It” should add, I’d put Roi Mage after Limerick Lace and before Galia Des Liteaux in order of betting priority.
He’s probably the best e/w value available now at 50s.
I followed your lead in cashing out Kitty Light two days ago. I’d take that as a sign for everyone to load up and start scanning the cruise brochures:-)
as one of my mates said this morning as Brian Harman went +9, they’ll be films made about my betting prowess one day!
Apologies (yet again) @AFKABartram Cost me to go in and out and in but “when the facts change….”. as the man said. I can’t actually remember which man but I’m sure he was sure about it.
My slightly more confident e/w picks for tomorrow. I've cashed out on Nassalam and gone with Latenightpass instead. Much better value methinks. My other two picks - Roi Mage and Adamantly Chosen. Hoping for a better result than yesterday. Changed my mind re Arizona Cardinal which really pissed me off. Wished I hadn't listened to Mick Fitzgerald tipping Your Darling! Hoping lightening doesn't strike twice by abandoning Nassalam. Best of luck today Addicks punters
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy i share your info with my father in law. He likes a few small bets on a daily basis, and is average in his successes. Mind you he did win £6k a few years ago, doing a mix of doubles, trebles and accas for a £10 stake! Poor old boy rung me up in tears, the most he's ever won in over 50yrs of betting! I'm the opposite and only do, normally, the ITV 7 on a weekly basis, or at big meetings like the GN, Cheltenham and Derby meetings. I'll be following your suggestions and keeping my fingers crossed fir all Addicks having a flutter. Thanks for all your hard work mate, and good luck.
As predicted, National Course is now Soft (GS places)
Mildmay: GS (Sft places)
They have no frigging clue how ground really rides these clowns. I know it's not easy but, like Cheltenham, they're too slow to change the going description when actual races start showing it's meaningfully wrong.
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy i share your info with my father in law. He likes a few small bets on a daily basis, and is average in his successes. Mind you he did £6k a few years ago, doing a mix of doubles, trebles and accas for a £10 stake! Poor old boy rung me up in tears, the most he's ever won in over 50yrs of betting! I'm the opposite and only do, normally, the ITV 7 on a weekly basis, or at big meetings like the GN, Cheltenham and Derby meetings. I'll be following your suggestions and keeping my fingers crossed fir all Addicks having a flutter. Thanks for all your hard work mate, and good luck.
Cheers @Redmidland Much appreciated. Have to confess I've doubled down with some Tricasts on my model's top 3 picks for softer ground (Max, Mr Inc & Limerick Lace - even if it's a nix of GS and Soft, it will still ride soft enough for these 3) IF: Mr Incredible wins AND Max & Limerick Lace fill the next 2 places (either way round) Next one way flight to Bora Bora if it comes in ....... just the one ticket .... I'll leave the returns from Roi Mage's Top 10 finish for Mrs M and the cat
Comments
IMHO there is now a <5% chance of this being an attritional GN (in which there are barely 10 finishers) BUT there is far higher chance of there being a material element of Good-to-Soft to the true going tomorrow. I don't care what the Official bullshit is.
My model (which is ground-agnostic - it's impossible to model all runners' definitive ground requirements now that so many young chases are contenders) reckons Kitty's Light has got a Winning Profile and I cashed out because it appeared near certain a few days ago that the ground would be at best Soft.
I've been burnt before when using my "judgement" to second guess my model and omit a Winning candidate (2018 Tiger Roll and Bless The Wings and 2019 Tiger AGAIN!!) and I'd rather be wrong in missing Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam go well than fuck it up again and not be on Kitty's and see him handle the ground to be in the mix at the business end.
So I've cashed out my Attritional Bets - combination of Top 5 and Top 10 doubles on Delta Work, Coko Beach and Nassalam - and gone back in with KITTY'S LIGHT e/w 6 places at 12/1. Painful with the fall in price but 6 places is a tiny crumb of comfort
Mulling over the lesser bets but will definitely be keeping Galia Des Liteaux. Again, the model rates her as one of the solid Place candidates, she has handled GS perfectly well in top company and it would be nuts to cash out a 50/1 slip. I may pair back the overweight place portion though.
Again, the model rates Glengouly - I'll keep him.
But may switch my interest in Farouk D'alene to Chemical Energy (who much prefers a decent surface but handled the Soft ground in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2023 festival well enough when 2nd to Gaillard Du Mesnil).
Will sleep on that one.
Yeah, I do go off on one sometimes.
in short, I’m now back 100% on my model’s top 7 ratings, all each way (I.e 1/2 stake on win and 1/2 on place at 1/5th the odds):
- I Am Maximus
- Mr Incredible (overweight)
- Kitty’s Light
- Limerick Lace
- Galia Des Liteaux
- Glengouly
- Roi Mage
I’ve cashed out everything else except for a small e/w on Farouk D’alene at 125/1.Very glad you enjoy the thread.
Fingers crossed.
just as well, cos the handicapper would have given Max another 6lbs based on that win.
I am surprised he’s back to fav again. His tendency to jump left is a potential issue but on the other hand I’m not sure anything else makes for a more obvious fav.
Meetingonthewaters would have been had he won the Ultima.
The XC abandonment scuppered the chance for Minella Indo or Delta Work or Galvin to stake their claim.
Ground is certainly not ideal for Kitty’s.
Mr Incredible has a great chance but many pros and trend followers don’t like his campaign or quirkiness.
Limerick Lace also has a great chance but it’s a bit of a stretch to think of a 7yo mare going off fav (unless Rachael were on her
So maybe it’s logical it’s between Corach and Max but I think it’s JP’s big day today that’s put added market momentum into his runners.
And of course Max beating him comfortably was what propelled him to replace him.
So yeap, despite the jumping concerns, he’s probably the logical fav.
sorry, I’m burbling on again - I need a snifter
Just off to get the hammer for my piggy bank.
Apologies for doing the hokey-cokey with Kitty’s Light.
100% as per my model.
I much appreciate the vote of confidence and hope they bring home the bacon.
Much appreciated.
as one of my mates said this morning as Brian Harman went +9, they’ll be films made about my betting prowess one day!
should add, I’d put Roi Mage after Limerick Lace and before Galia Des Liteaux in order of betting priority.
Cost me to go in and out and in but “when the facts change….”. as the man said.
I can’t actually remember which man but I’m sure he was sure about it.
My slightly more confident e/w picks for tomorrow.
I've cashed out on Nassalam and gone with Latenightpass instead. Much better value methinks. My other two picks - Roi Mage and Adamantly Chosen.
Hoping for a better result than yesterday. Changed my mind re Arizona Cardinal which really pissed me off. Wished I hadn't listened to Mick Fitzgerald tipping Your Darling!
Hoping lightening doesn't strike twice by abandoning Nassalam.
Best of luck today Addicks punters
I'm the opposite and only do, normally, the ITV 7 on a weekly basis, or at big meetings like the GN, Cheltenham and Derby meetings.
I'll be following your suggestions and keeping my fingers crossed fir all Addicks having a flutter. Thanks for all your hard work mate, and good luck.
Wondering if Venetia thinks the ground has dried up too much.
Mildmay: GS (Sft places)
They have no frigging clue how ground really rides these clowns.
I know it's not easy but, like Cheltenham, they're too slow to change the going description when actual races start showing it's meaningfully wrong.
Much appreciated.
Have to confess I've doubled down with some Tricasts on my model's top 3 picks for softer ground (Max, Mr Inc & Limerick Lace - even if it's a nix of GS and Soft, it will still ride soft enough for these 3) IF:
Mr Incredible wins AND
Max & Limerick Lace fill the next 2 places (either way round)
Next one way flight to Bora Bora if it comes in
....... just the one ticket
Much appreciate the vote of confidence.
Fingers crossed we come out nicely ahead, one way or another!