To chuck a possible spanner in the works (in the less offensive sense of the word), an odd discrepancy in weather forecast. Met Office showing fair chance of heavy showers but every other source I look at (app / accuweather / BBC) saying max 50% chance at 9 and again at the Off time at 4pm and only 1.3mm if it comes. On the satellite images, there are heavy showers knocking around north Wales but I guess it's down to how the different agencies think they'll track. Whatever happens I'm happy to just back my model with Kitty's on the team and not play weatherman. Would only help the others if it pisses down. WhoTF knows?
I'm not a backer myself (though, as previously mentioned, unsurprisingly my model does make him a "Big Run No Cigar" threat) but, with the ground drying, 8/1 (7 places) with BetFred for Corach Rambler looks attractive e/w value if you're so inclined. I know the picture is varied, but Gerri Colombe certainly showed no ill effects from the Gold Cup.
And I still can't quite understand how Roi Mage remains unloved at 50s. True, he's effectively shorter for place only and perhaps at 12 years old a win is quite a stretch on this ground but it's all relative. Some of those shortening have me scratching my head.
Here are my selections for today at Aintree and Chepstow done as a Heinz-:
14.15 - Che - Bolsover Bill 7/2 14.30 - Ain - King of Ryhope 4/1 14.50 - Che - King of Brazil 5/2 15.05 - Ain - Flooring Porter 4/1 15.32 - Che - Lady Balko 5/2 16.00 - Ain - Limmerick Lace 17/2
Really enjoyed ladies day yesterday and wow so the ladies scrub up well. Always helps when you get a few winners/ places so was unusually up on the day. Don’t expect the same today but my picks are:- 1.20 Cuthbert Dibble e/w 1.55 Brighterdaysahead win Esprit du Poitier e/w 2.30 Forward Plan e/w 3.05 Flooring Porter w 4.00 Galia Des Liteaux & Mahler Mission e/w’s 5.00 Foundafifty w and Master Chewy e/w 5.35 Mister Meggit w
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy a great thread as ever. I have a small amount on each of your 7. Hoping the luck is better this year, but whatever will make for an exciting race.
Thread of the year yet again. Staggering the time you commit to your model Peanuts. im on mr incredible and glenguily ew but sincerely hope Mrs Peanuts has the holiday brochures out at 4:30 this afternoon.
Three Mullins horses have been heavily backed on Betfair (although it's a moot point as to whether Betfair are following the bookies' lead or vice versa):
I Am Maximus - 10.0 to 7.4 Mr Incredible - 20.0 to 15.0 Capodanno - 60.0 to 27.0
Willie Mullins spoke particularly glowingly about Capodanno in an interview with Matt Chapman.
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy a great thread as ever. I have a small amount on each of your 7. Hoping the luck is better this year, but whatever will make for an exciting race.
Thread of the year yet again. Staggering the time you commit to your model Peanuts. im on mr incredible and glenguily ew but sincerely hope Mrs Peanuts has the holiday brochures out at 4:30 this afternoon.
Thanks Gents Much appreciate the comments and glad you enjoy it. Fingers crossed.
Not following racing as much these days but sticking with my theory of younger unexposed horses being ones to go with in this race now. Thought Adamantly Chosen was a big price, and didn't mind Meetingofthewaters or The Goffer (though trip probably an issue for the latter!)
Not following racing as much these days but sticking with my theory of younger unexposed horses being ones to go with in this race now. Thought Adamantly Chosen was a big price, and didn't mind Meetingofthewaters or The Goffer (though trip probably an issue for the latter!)
Totally agree @PolzeathNick the race suits them now, in contrast to pre 2013. I'm pretty sure you were the original Walk In The Mill fancier at wild prices the season before his Becher win and then GN 4th - I think he got a late niggle and was sadly scratched. A brilliant spot and the only offspring of Walk In The Park to run in a GN ....... until Limerick Lace this year. Silly short price but she's a tough as nails. Sounds very much like JPs got his money down.
It's about time a mare won again. Nickel Coin the last winner in 1951 and this year a couple with fair chances including Limerick Lace which was bred by JP's wife.
Don't understand why Nassalam is so long, can get 100s on the exchange and I think will be right up there. Gone for Nassalam and Farouk Dalene e/w and i am maximus straight win
Is the Betfred offer of 7 places (1/5th place) the best out there?
Fitzdares are offering 7 places at 1/5 odds but at reduced price from their 6 places standard terms. Is Fred just offering 7 places full stop? If so, how do his prices compare?
My lot are offering up to 10 places, but at steadily reducing odds e.g. Corach Rambler 17/2 for the standard 6 places reducing steadily down to 11/2 for 10 places.
Three Mullins horses have been heavily backed on Betfair (although it's a moot point as to whether Betfair are following the bookies' lead or vice versa):
I Am Maximus - 10.0 to 7.4 Mr Incredible - 20.0 to 15.0 Capodanno - 60.0 to 27.0
Willie Mullins spoke particularly glowingly about Capodanno in an interview with Matt Chapman.
My slightly more confident e/w picks for tomorrow. I've cashed out on Nassalam and gone with Latenightpass instead. Much better value methinks. My other two picks - Roi Mage and Adamantly Chosen. Hoping for a better result than yesterday. Changed my mind re Arizona Cardinal which really pissed me off. Wished I hadn't listened to Mick Fitzgerald tipping Your Darling! Hoping lightening doesn't strike twice by abandoning Nassalam. Best of luck today Addicks punters
Off to a good start, though Ile Atlantique disappointing in terms of my placepot.
I'm sticking with @PeanutsMolloy and his magnificent analysis.
Let's hope for a Charlton win together with a successful National.
Done 10 places with Bob on Farouk D'Alene, Roi Mage and Nassalam given the probable soft to heavy nature of the ground.
Cheers for your kind comments @LenGlover Much appreciated. I know I sound like a broken record but I'm still amazed that Roi Mage is still 66/1 e/w - softer than last year, jumped it beautifully to be an always-handy and not-stopping 7th. Now has his preferred partner on board and a 2lb lower mark. 14L margin to Corach who was good for maybe 5L further but is up 13lb in mark. Just his age presumably but that matters much less on softer ground. Absolute no brainer. And backing him in the Places market is the best value saver available IMHO. Now the Betfair Top10 market's got some liquidity, having cleared the decks of my Attritional Ground, off-piste bets late yesterday, I've gone back in again this morning with Farouk and Nassalam for extended places as a hedge in case it pisses down - there's still a chance later, before Off time. Better prices than Bet365 on these unfancied ones. I think people forget that Nassalam has good form over these fences in a Grand Sefton. Yes he's got too high a mark but so too has Coko Beach and, unlike Coko, there's no doubting his stamina. He's not one of my model's picks but he's at daft prices now and well capable of a minor place. All the best.
Comments
Met Office showing fair chance of heavy showers but every other source I look at (app / accuweather / BBC) saying max 50% chance at 9 and again at the Off time at 4pm and only 1.3mm if it comes.
On the satellite images, there are heavy showers knocking around north Wales but I guess it's down to how the different agencies think they'll track.
Whatever happens I'm happy to just back my model with Kitty's on the team and not play weatherman.
Would only help the others if it pisses down.
WhoTF knows?
I know the picture is varied, but Gerri Colombe certainly showed no ill effects from the Gold Cup.
And I still can't quite understand how Roi Mage remains unloved at 50s.
True, he's effectively shorter for place only and perhaps at 12 years old a win is quite a stretch on this ground but it's all relative. Some of those shortening have me scratching my head.
14.15 - Che - Bolsover Bill 7/2
14.30 - Ain - King of Ryhope 4/1
14.50 - Che - King of Brazil 5/2
15.05 - Ain - Flooring Porter 4/1
15.32 - Che - Lady Balko 5/2
16.00 - Ain - Limmerick Lace 17/2
1.20 Cuthbert Dibble e/w
1.55 Brighterdaysahead win Esprit du Poitier e/w
2.30 Forward Plan e/w
3.05 Flooring Porter w
4.00 Galia Des Liteaux & Mahler Mission e/w’s
5.00 Foundafifty w and Master Chewy e/w
5.35 Mister Meggit w
Staggering the time you commit to your model Peanuts.
im on mr incredible and glenguily ew but sincerely hope Mrs Peanuts has the holiday brochures out at 4:30 this afternoon.
Run Wild Fred is a NR.
I reckon we all saw that one coming.
I Am Maximus - 10.0 to 7.4
Mr Incredible - 20.0 to 15.0
Capodanno - 60.0 to 27.0
Willie Mullins spoke particularly glowingly about Capodanno in an interview with Matt Chapman.
Much appreciate the comments and glad you enjoy it.
Fingers crossed.
Met Office now indicating:
11am - Light Rain
12 Noon - Heavy Rain
1pm - Cloudy
2pm - Sunny Intervals
3pm - Sunny Intervals
4pm - Cloudy
Nassalam's seriously unloved at 66s (100s Betfair win) - understandable with the drying ground, except that Coko Beach and Delta Work remain at 20~25.
If that rain hits at noon !!
I'm pretty sure you were the original Walk In The Mill fancier at wild prices the season before his Becher win and then GN 4th - I think he got a late niggle and was sadly scratched.
A brilliant spot and the only offspring of Walk In The Park to run in a GN ....... until Limerick Lace this year.
Silly short price but she's a tough as nails. Sounds very much like JPs got his money down.
Sorry if its a rubbish tip.
I am Maximus £30 e/w @ 6-1
Roi Mage £10 e/w @ 50-1
Farouk D’alene £10 e/w @ 100-1
Good luck everyone and, of course, massive thanks to Peanuts for another interesting,impressive and fun thread.
Being backed heavily at fixed odds as well.
Some light rain early and around mid-day, nowt likely to set the ground back again.
Let's hope for a Charlton win together with a successful National.
Done 10 places with Bob on Farouk D'Alene, Roi Mage and Nassalam given the probable soft to heavy nature of the ground.
Much appreciated.
I know I sound like a broken record but I'm still amazed that Roi Mage is still 66/1 e/w - softer than last year, jumped it beautifully to be an always-handy and not-stopping 7th. Now has his preferred partner on board and a 2lb lower mark. 14L margin to Corach who was good for maybe 5L further but is up 13lb in mark.
Just his age presumably but that matters much less on softer ground.
Absolute no brainer. And backing him in the Places market is the best value saver available IMHO.
Now the Betfair Top10 market's got some liquidity, having cleared the decks of my Attritional Ground, off-piste bets late yesterday, I've gone back in again this morning with Farouk and Nassalam for extended places as a hedge in case it pisses down - there's still a chance later, before Off time. Better prices than Bet365 on these unfancied ones.
I think people forget that Nassalam has good form over these fences in a Grand Sefton. Yes he's got too high a mark but so too has Coko Beach and, unlike Coko, there's no doubting his stamina.
He's not one of my model's picks but he's at daft prices now and well capable of a minor place.
All the best.