Hi Peanuts Decent enough result and I know you were sweet on the winner after the weights were announced. What are your conclusions now? Will the antis be happy with the changes made or will they keep chipping away until the race is reduced to just another handicap chase? Btw the standing start worked well.
Hi Peanuts Decent enough result and I know you were sweet on the winner after the weights were announced. What are your conclusions now? Will the antis be happy with the changes made or will they keep chipping away until the race is reduced to just another handicap chase? Btw the standing start worked well.
I've been ruminating on a few observations but am a bit tied up at the moment. There are some interesting and surprising aspects to the result and I'll get back to you tomorrow if that's OK. Have a good one.
I'm not sure if you were asking about my conclusions about positives and negatives from the result for my model - there are some initial thoughts but I'd like to crunch some more detailed comparative stats before drawing any definite conclusions. I'll get back here on that subject in due course, if that's of interest.
But to answer the question has the GN been "reduced to just another handicap race", my thoughts are these:
Racing authorities, trainers, jockies and most journos appear to be united in singing the praises of the changes that resulted 0 fatalities and 0 falls. And who could be anything other than delighted and very relieved at the lack of fatalities and, probably, injuries? Unequivocally good news.
The antis will always be antis unless and until racing is banned full stop but, at least being united the "Authorities" are more likely now to be prepared to stand firm on further change and, most importantly, public opinion will now be (I believe) fully supportive.
Having said all that, in my opinion, the post 2012 changes have over time already effectively turned it into "just another handicap chase" - of course over a unique course and uncommon trip and clearly the "biggest" of them all, in the sense of attracting increasing numbers of Grade 1 winners to take part.
Racing's jerk off about that and the fact that the first 4 past the post were all Grade 1 winners, I'm far less happy about.
It's now impossible to deny that the changes of the last 12 years have profoundly altered the nature of the test from one of both jumping prowess and stamina to one of pure and simple stamina at speed. Now, that can be and still is an exciting spectacle but, while people may purr at the atypically large number of runners in contention at the last (the same was true for the Topham which also had a smaller than usual field this year) and that the first 4 home were all Grade 1 winners, my view is "be careful what you wish for".
Perhaps the slow ground helped more get round without tipping up but it doesn't really explain the competitive nature of the last 4 furlongs. Indeed, one would expect the reverse, particularly when the time to the Water Jump for the GN was near identical to that of last year, despite the slower ground.
We know that, officially, 1 fence was lowered but my suspicion is that they've tinkered yet again with the construction (and perhaps at the tiniest of margins with the sizes) of all the fences - though Derek Fox would be sure to disagree.
To me, the high number of runners in contention late on, while exciting to watch as in any highly competitive finish, simply emphasizes the fact that the race has been made into a different and, as many such as I contend, less unique test, which more horses are capable of passing.
That being so, I don't believe for a second that Red Rum would have been a likely winner of a 2024-style Grand National.
Whatever the merits of the "New" race, there is little doubt that it's yet another nail in the coffin for dreams of smaller yards, small-scale owners and lesser jockies to win a Grand National.
To me, that's always been a key ingredient in the magic of the race.
Just as football may be a more technical and beautiful game now, the fact that the FA Cup Final is now typically (or at least seems more often than not to be) a clash of perm any 2 from 5: City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, means that it has lost the magic (and viewer numbers) it once had (to me it's now a big yawn), so the Grand National is now on a similar downwards trend.
Aintree will still see packed crowds during the GN meeting and the prize money will now always be sufficient to attract a significant number of near-top quality 3m chasers to take part, but the chopping off of roughly 66% (6 of the previous bottom 9 in the weights) of those in the low OR140s that may be winners of the next-tier Nationals (Scottish, Welsh, Irish) from ever having a tilt at the biggest prize in their speciality, and having the big yards and big owners account for all bar a handful of runners, while still making the GN a huge race for racing afficionados, will IMHO make it a far-less magical and captivating occasion for the general public and I strongly suspect that will show up in TV ratings and an end for many of the once-a-year punters.
Thank you Peanuts for an excellent thread as always. You were responsible for my double of Roi Mage and Galia Des Litueax top 10 finish, (which I've never been as happy for two horses coming 8th and 9th) and I doubled the winner (missed the price) with Scheffler winning the Masters so thank you very much indeed.
To add on your thoughts as well Peanuts, they really need to bring back a 2-3 reserve list, to enable the race to be run to full capacity, and to allow the so-called 'lesser yards' the ones you allude to add to the magic of the race more chance of getting in.
Nothing will be done about this, but its a shame the selfishness of some trainers running such obvious non-stayers as Janidil, The Goffer etc and then Stattler who never went a yard on the ground is disappointing to say the least.
Thank you Peanuts for an excellent thread as always. You were responsible for my double of Roi Mage and Galia Des Litueax top 10 finish, (which I've never been as happy for two horses coming 8th and 9th) and I doubled the winner (missed the price) with Scheffler winning the Masters so thank you very much indeed.
To add on your thoughts as well Peanuts, they really need to bring back a 2-3 reserve list, to enable the race to be run to full capacity, and to allow the so-called 'lesser yards' the ones you allude to add to the magic of the race more chance of getting in.
Nothing will be done about this, but its a shame the selfishness of some trainers running such obvious non-stayers as Janidil, The Goffer etc and then Stattler who never went a yard on the ground is disappointing to say the least.
Cheers @Big_Bob Much appreciate your comments and glad they worked out for you. For my winning candidates I go e/w and early for reasonable prices, but for my place candidates the Top 10 finish was a really useful market this year and I'll continue to make use of it in future. It's the diff between a modest profit and a >100% one. Forgot to mention Reserves but I totally agree with you. I also think it's more important than ever that the handicapper uses the unique discretion he has not just to "equalise" the Irish and British marks (like that matters now anyway) but, as he once did with Amberleigh House, give the best specialist stayers a slightly higher mark to give them the best chance of making the cut. I said it before and I'll say it till I'm blue in the face, this race has to be open to the obviously best stayers in the game and Christian Williams would gladly have carried an extra 2 or 3 lbs and be 90% assured a run than miss the cut. He got lucky this year in squeezing in at declarations and IMHO it was only the ground that stopped him being 2nd or even vying to win it. But he himself doubts that Kitty's will have the necessary mark to have another tilt. All the best.
I fed all the information I had on all the horses (number, form, jockey, trainer, weight, etc) into ChatGPT and asked it to come up with a winner and four placed horses. Here's what it said...
"Based on the information provided, here's how I would predict the outcome of the Grand National:
Corach Rambler - With a strong record in previous Cheltenham Festivals and a win in last year's Grand National, Corach Rambler has the experience and ability to perform well in this race. Despite a challenging run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he's still considered well in and could repeat his success.
I Am Maximus - Showing promising form with wins at Fairyhouse, I Am Maximus looks well handicapped and could be a strong contender for a place.
Vanillier - Despite being more workmanlike over fences, Vanillier has shown good form in previous Grand Nationals and could produce a solid performance again.
Meetingofthewaters - With a smooth win at Leopardstown and a good third at Cheltenham, Meetingofthewaters has potential if he can settle well enough over the fences.
Mr Incredible - Placed in major handicaps and with proven ability on heavy ground, Mr Incredible could be in the mix if he can overcome any starting concerns.
These predictions are based on the provided information, but as with any horse race, there are many variables and uncertainties that could affect the outcome".
Amazing how it managed to pick out the top five in the market and in that order too. If only a normal human being could do that then we wouldn't need Peanuts to actually find the winner! Equally, those five weren't all in the top five a couple of months ago (and why getting 33/1 on a winner such as Mr Incredible is the difference between long term success and failure) but ChatGPT probably would have come up with those that were at the time. It's basically "skimmed" a bookie's prices and then given a write up to justify the selections!
I posted it for a bit of fun, if that's ok?
I would always prefer Peanuts' commentary, explanation and methodology (even if I can only ever follow about half of it). And, as I am sure we all know, ChatGPT isn't calculating the likely winner; it's just using large language models to create a piece of prose that is reasonable and comprehensible.
For what it's worth, I used ChatGPT's answer (above) and put a £1 free bet from William Hill on Corach Rambler. My "proper" bet, using real money, went E/W on the second horse ChatGPT listed, I Am Maximus.
Hi Peanuts Thank you for your reply. I was referring to the race in general when seeking your conclusions and you have obviously given it a lot of thought. To my mind the 20% reduction in the field with the late withdrawals and the other changes this year appear to have achieved the aims of the authorities for less fallers etc. May be this has something to do with the better class of horses taking part but it is not the Grand National as we knew it. Ruby Walsh gave his view before the race that the reduction in numbers would help jockeys to be in the right places coming into the fences. I thought it was a bit simplistic. There needs to be some way of stopping the big battalions from running no hopers to monopolise the chances of their real fancies. With regard to your module I never cease to be amazed by the wealth of information you produce and it is a great help. I think it is becoming very important to identify horses with good chances to take advantage of the ante post market as some of the prices nearer the race are squeezed dramatically.
Hi Peanuts Thank you for your reply. I was referring to the race in general when seeking your conclusions and you have obviously given it a lot of thought. To my mind the 20% reduction in the field with the late withdrawals and the other changes this year appear to have achieved the aims of the authorities for less fallers etc. May be this has something to do with the better class of horses taking part but it is not the Grand National as we knew it. Ruby Walsh gave his view before the race that the reduction in numbers would help jockeys to be in the right places coming into the fences. I thought it was a bit simplistic. There needs to be some way of stopping the big battalions from running no hopers to monopolise the chances of their real fancies. With regard to your module I never cease to be amazed by the wealth of information you produce and it is a great help. I think it is becoming very important to identify horses with good chances to take advantage of the ante post market as some of the prices nearer the race are squeezed dramatically.
Agree 100% with you on all of that. Essential to get in early with the win selections in particular. The average price of the model's top rated was materially lower this year and that could well be how it is going forward. At least I managed to highlight and get on Max when he was 25s, prior to the Bobbyjo and he was always going to make the cut. Bookies did not go NRNB this year any earlier than usual and so it's riskier now ante-post with those at 80~100/1 in the 140~145 OR territory, unless you're pretty sure they will declare and you'll get your stake back if they're balloted out. But you just have to adapt as the circumstances change and opportunities are presented - reasonable value Top 5 and Top 10 finish at least enabled me to dispense with the probably-wasted win portion of e/w for some of the place candidates and make a nice profit on Roi Mage completing in 9th - even dropping to 4/1, it was the best banker bet around this year! Was surprised to be ahead as much as 185% backing 7 because the risk/return profile has definitely deteriorated. In the old days, you could breakeven with a single place - little to no chance now.
I know you weren't enquiring specifically about the model but I'll just make a quick summary of my thoughts - if only as an aide memoire for possible tweaks to the formulae.
Positives for the model:
as noted before, the model's 3 Winning Calibre picks were 1st, 5th
and UR - got to be happy with that given that Mr I chose to be truculent
(even so he was a little unlucky to UR at The Chair) and that the ground
wasn't ideal for Kittys.
its Pedigree component (only introduced in scale a few years ago) worked well - 14 of the field (44%) had, by the
model's assessment, key pedigree ingredients consistent with winning a GN
and they contributed 5 of the first 6 (83%) with the model's top-rated
pedigree being that of the winner. Minella Indo is the big outlier here without a Pedigree Plus of any description.
as an aside, it's not unreasonable to consider that Delta Work's
great run in 2nd validates the model's pick of him last year as it's NAP
on the GS going when he collided mid-air with Back On The Lash and URd at
the 21st
and 5 of its top 7 picks finishing in the first 10 is a clear
outperformance (7 runners = 22% of the field, accounting for 50% of the
first 10 home).
But this year, as ever, it missed some important
frame-makers and there are definitely stat-departures to mull over and, possibly, pointers for the future. It was certainly a
"clean" race without too many mishaps, so the "stat-busters" making the frame certainly demand attention.
They were, of course, 2nd, 3rd and 4th - the meat in the sandwich of Maximus and Kitty. Each had at least 4 stat-fails, as indeed did 6th place Ain't That A Shame but all 4 broke 1 big stat:
Days since Last Run - like a lot of GN trend systems, my model looks for a prep run <50 days prior (84 days absolute maximum provided the runner has a good record after 50 day+ breaks). But none of these 4 had run since the weights were allotted 53 days prior (120 days prior in Minella Indo's case) and none had particularly strong records after a long break.
What's interesting though is that each of Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin were of course primed to run in the abandoned XC at The Festival, 31 days prior. Henry de Bromhead may well have put his finger on it when said after the race: “We were trying to turn a negative into a positive (with the cross country chase being abandoned), but maybe with how the ground had gone (at Cheltenham) it might have taken the edge off him." Maximus hadn't run for 49 days prior to Aintree and had had a comparatively comfortable win in the Bobbyjo. That "no lengthy break" rule held up strongly for all other runners where it applied - Panda Boy (70 days - 17th), Mahler Mission (133- not going well when UR at The Chair), Chemical Energy (206 - PU) and Foxy Jacks (107 - PU).
Was it that those 3 had been primed to run but were spared the exertions that gave them an edge? Certainly most of those that ran in the sapping conditions at Cheltenham, despite the 4 weeks of rest, disappointed in the race. Kittys was the best finisher but perhaps one reason for his not quite getting home on Saturday was down to his determinedly staying-on 7th in the Ultima. Difficult to conclude much about Corach Rambler but Noble Yeats and Limerick Lace (both with competitive races at Cheltenham) were notable disappointments.
Other unusual stats for the frame-makers, though not for Soft-ground GNs.
Those 4 of Delta, Minella, Galvin and Ain't That A Shame are 10 or 11 years old - ordinarily that's long in the tooth for a modern GN but, as noted prior to the race, on Soft ground, age matters less - indeed, perhaps its the 7 year olds (many not yet at full physical maturity as steeplechasers) that tend to struggle in a testing ground GN.
The first 4 home all carried 11.00+. Again, we'd noted before the race that a big weight is less of a disadvantage
on testing ground. But even on better ground, we'd had the winner and 4 of the first 6 carry 11.00+ in 2019 and 5 of the first 6 in 2022 and 3 of the first 5 do so last year.
Nonetheless, with 47% of those that lined up carrying 11.00+ (30% the average for the previous 4 GNs) and something above 45% perhaps the regular future pattern, the weight factor stat-test is one that deserves another close look from the perspective of potentially adjusting the model's absolute weight-tolerance formula to the smaller field size.
It will take a while for me to crunch the numbers for all the possible tweaks to the model to reconcile the stat-busters, and weigh up whether or not to put them into effect or simply treat one or more of Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin as outliers. I don't think Delta or Galvin will pose that big a problem to reconcile, with marginal tweaks to a couple of stats. Not so sure about Minella and the key judgement, as always, with tweaking a model is, are these tweaks logical and likely to improve the selection of winners or might they cause the net to be cast too wide?
With the model having picked 4 of the 7 winners and 4 runners-up 2006~2012, it then had a difficult time adjusting to the major changes to course and trip, selecting frame-makers but no winner again until 2018 (and then me choosing to give him the swerve as regards backing him ....... twice - yes it was Tiger Roll !!). It's now picked 4 of the last 6 winners, so I'm fairly happy it's caught up with "modern GNs" - I'll have to use my best judgement in accommodating it to the smaller field size.
One way or another, a shiny new model will be rolled out well in time for the next GN.
Very interesting reading your thoughts, particularly on the abandoned Cross Country at Cheltenham and the subsequent good runs in the GN. I really enjoy this race and backed Ellott's first GN winner after running in this race. Good luck with tweaking your model.
Very interesting reading your thoughts, particularly on the abandoned Cross Country at Cheltenham and the subsequent good runs in the GN. I really enjoy this race and backed Ellott's first GN winner after running in this race. Good luck with tweaking your model.
You were on Silver Birch? Well done, many congrats. I was on McKelvey that year!!!! Ugh!!!!
Very interesting reading your thoughts, particularly on the abandoned Cross Country at Cheltenham and the subsequent good runs in the GN. I really enjoy this race and backed Ellott's first GN winner after running in this race. Good luck with tweaking your model.
You were on Silver Birch? Well done, many congrats. I was on McKelvey that year!!!! Ugh!!!!
He had previously been favourite for the GN when trained by Nicholls.
Nearly time to nearly time to close down until next year. But, Peanuts Im interested in your thoughts on the BET365 Goldcup Sandown 27th April 3 miles 5 Furlongs. Especially Desertmore House, who held entries for both Irish an Aintree Nationals and didn’t show and now swerves the Scottish to go to Sandown…… ? An where I believe Kitty will also run.
Nearly time to nearly time to close down until next year. But, Peanuts Im interested in your thoughts on the BET365 Goldcup Sandown 27th April 3 miles 5 Furlongs. Especially Desertmore House, who held entries for both Irish an Aintree Nationals and didn’t show and now swerves the Scottish to go to Sandown…… ? An where I believe Kitty will also run.
Please bear in mind I am a one trick pony @RaplhMilne I don't have a model for other staying chases and I do a fraction of the research on them that I do for Aintree. However, I did put the slide rule over Desertmore House and I wasn't crazy about him for the GN - his pedigree doesn't scream 34f to me - but 29f might be more the ticket. Career-best RPR140 came from his Kerry National win when OR135, the form of which looks OK but not stellar. But he was then comfortably beaten twice off OR145, including in the Paddy Power - the form of which has always looked so-so to me and neither of the well-fancied Panda Boy nor Meetingofthewaters did anything on Saturday to change my view. He is obviously unexposed beyond 25f and has a decent win ratio at 24~25f, though at a highest mark of 135. One concern I'd have is that, while his flat horses are running well, Brassil's jumpers have been in a slump for a while now (e.g. again Panda Boy). Still a way to go to know who will actually be lining up at Sandown so I haven't looked closely at the field but I doubt that he'll be making it onto my own slip tbh. But then, what do I know? 29f is like a sprint to me
As mentioned, I don't have a model for the Scottish GN but I'll have a dabble nonetheless - CAVEAT EMPTOR (I do OK in the Welsh and Irish but my record at Ayr is unadulterated crap!) - but here's how I see it.
Basic stats:
Other than Vicente when completing back to back wins, no winner has carried more than 11.03 for 20 years.
Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).
There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs. If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER-10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value. SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well. Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle. Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
As mentioned, I don't have a model for the Scottish GN but I'll have a dabble nonetheless - CAVEAT EMPTOR (I do OK in the Welsh and Irish but my record at Ayr is unadulterated crap!) - but here's how I see it.
Basic stats:
Other than Vicente when completing back to back wins, no winner has carried more than 11.03 for 20 years.
Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).
There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs. If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER-10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value. SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well. Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle. Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
I hope they all line up. Should be a belter.
As you say, Peanuts, there is little value at 7/1 (I missed the fancy early prices on Betfair) but having backed it in its last two races I will probably fall it over the cliff if it turns up on Saturday!
As mentioned, I don't have a model for the Scottish GN but I'll have a dabble nonetheless - CAVEAT EMPTOR (I do OK in the Welsh and Irish but my record at Ayr is unadulterated crap!) - but here's how I see it.
Basic stats:
Other than Vicente when completing back to back wins, no winner has carried more than 11.03 for 20 years.
Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).
There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs. If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER-10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value. SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well. Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle. Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
I hope they all line up. Should be a belter.
As you say, Peanuts, there is little value at 7/1 (I missed the fancy early prices on Betfair) but having backed it in its last two races I will probably fall it over the cliff if it turns up on Saturday!
TBH part of me would love him to win even without my cash in terms of validation of my model's rating. Best of luck.
As mentioned, I don't have a model for the Scottish GN but I'll have a dabble nonetheless - CAVEAT EMPTOR (I do OK in the Welsh and Irish but my record at Ayr is unadulterated crap!) - but here's how I see it.
Basic stats:
Other than Vicente when completing back to back wins, no winner has carried more than 11.03 for 20 years.
Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).
There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs. If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER-10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value. SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well. Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle. Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
I hope they all line up. Should be a belter.
I really need to read your posts more thoroughly. Or, at least, get past the first few sentences. Because I have just spent an hour trying to find the odds on CAVEAT EMPTOR.
As mentioned, I don't have a model for the Scottish GN but I'll have a dabble nonetheless - CAVEAT EMPTOR (I do OK in the Welsh and Irish but my record at Ayr is unadulterated crap!) - but here's how I see it.
Basic stats:
Other than Vicente when completing back to back wins, no winner has carried more than 11.03 for 20 years.
Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).
There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs. If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER-10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value. SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well. Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle. Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
I hope they all line up. Should be a belter.
I really need to read your posts more thoroughly. Or, at least, get past the first few sentences. Because I have just spent an hour trying to find the odds on CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Form isn't up to much, Chizzy - I'd leave it if I were you ;-)
Spanish Harlem’s now 8/1 co fav with Git Maker after Paul Townend chooses to ride him.
Interesting that Mr Incredible will be Patrick Mullins’ ride (whose project he is) and Brian Hayes (who had got a tune out of him until last Saturday) is on Ontheropes.
sad to sat that the Grand National now looks like a longer and a bit more difficult Cheltenham Gold Cup but run on a more level course. The scaled down fences, standing start and reduced field have made the race much 'safer', perhaps no bad thing, BUT the old and unique features of enhanced 'danger' brought about by very challenging fences and a big field have made the G N i m o rather just another long distance National Hunt race
sad to sat that the Grand National now looks like a longer and a bit more difficult Cheltenham Gold Cup but run on a more level course. The scaled down fences, standing start and reduced field have made the race much 'safer', perhaps no bad thing, BUT the old and unique features of enhanced 'danger' brought about by very challenging fences and a big field have made the G N i m o rather just another long distance National Hunt race
I agree with most of what you say but must point out that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is not a handicap. Set weights for 5 year olds 11st 6lbs and 11st 12lbs for 6 year olds and upwards with a 7lb allowance for mares. Not open to errors or bias by a Handicapper.
Comments
Decent enough result and I know you were sweet on the winner after the weights were announced.
What are your conclusions now? Will the antis be happy with the changes made or will they keep chipping away until the race is reduced to just another handicap chase? Btw the standing start worked well.
I've been ruminating on a few observations but am a bit tied up at the moment.
There are some interesting and surprising aspects to the result and I'll get back to you tomorrow if that's OK.
Have a good one.
I'm not sure if you were asking about my conclusions about positives and negatives from the result for my model - there are some initial thoughts but I'd like to crunch some more detailed comparative stats before drawing any definite conclusions. I'll get back here on that subject in due course, if that's of interest.
But to answer the question has the GN been "reduced to just another handicap race", my thoughts are these:
Racing authorities, trainers, jockies and most journos appear to be united in singing the praises of the changes that resulted 0 fatalities and 0 falls. And who could be anything other than delighted and very relieved at the lack of fatalities and, probably, injuries? Unequivocally good news.
The antis will always be antis unless and until racing is banned full stop but, at least being united the "Authorities" are more likely now to be prepared to stand firm on further change and, most importantly, public opinion will now be (I believe) fully supportive.
Having said all that, in my opinion, the post 2012 changes have over time already effectively turned it into "just another handicap chase" - of course over a unique course and uncommon trip and clearly the "biggest" of them all, in the sense of attracting increasing numbers of Grade 1 winners to take part.
Racing's jerk off about that and the fact that the first 4 past the post were all Grade 1 winners, I'm far less happy about.
It's now impossible to deny that the changes of the last 12 years have profoundly altered the nature of the test from one of both jumping prowess and stamina to one of pure and simple stamina at speed. Now, that can be and still is an exciting spectacle but, while people may purr at the atypically large number of runners in contention at the last (the same was true for the Topham which also had a smaller than usual field this year) and that the first 4 home were all Grade 1 winners, my view is "be careful what you wish for".
Perhaps the slow ground helped more get round without tipping up but it doesn't really explain the competitive nature of the last 4 furlongs. Indeed, one would expect the reverse, particularly when the time to the Water Jump for the GN was near identical to that of last year, despite the slower ground.
We know that, officially, 1 fence was lowered but my suspicion is that they've tinkered yet again with the construction (and perhaps at the tiniest of margins with the sizes) of all the fences - though Derek Fox would be sure to disagree.
To me, the high number of runners in contention late on, while exciting to watch as in any highly competitive finish, simply emphasizes the fact that the race has been made into a different and, as many such as I contend, less unique test, which more horses are capable of passing.
That being so, I don't believe for a second that Red Rum would have been a likely winner of a 2024-style Grand National.
Whatever the merits of the "New" race, there is little doubt that it's yet another nail in the coffin for dreams of smaller yards, small-scale owners and lesser jockies to win a Grand National.
To me, that's always been a key ingredient in the magic of the race.
Just as football may be a more technical and beautiful game now, the fact that the FA Cup Final is now typically (or at least seems more often than not to be) a clash of perm any 2 from 5: City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, means that it has lost the magic (and viewer numbers) it once had (to me it's now a big yawn), so the Grand National is now on a similar downwards trend.
Aintree will still see packed crowds during the GN meeting and the prize money will now always be sufficient to attract a significant number of near-top quality 3m chasers to take part, but the chopping off of roughly 66% (6 of the previous bottom 9 in the weights) of those in the low OR140s that may be winners of the next-tier Nationals (Scottish, Welsh, Irish) from ever having a tilt at the biggest prize in their speciality, and having the big yards and big owners account for all bar a handful of runners, while still making the GN a huge race for racing afficionados, will IMHO make it a far-less magical and captivating occasion for the general public and I strongly suspect that will show up in TV ratings and an end for many of the once-a-year punters.
It's already happening I suspect.
You were responsible for my double of Roi Mage and Galia Des Litueax top 10 finish, (which I've never been as happy for two horses coming 8th and 9th) and I doubled the winner (missed the price) with Scheffler winning the Masters so thank you very much indeed.
To add on your thoughts as well Peanuts, they really need to bring back a 2-3 reserve list, to enable the race to be run to full capacity, and to allow the so-called 'lesser yards' the ones you allude to add to the magic of the race more chance of getting in.
Nothing will be done about this, but its a shame the selfishness of some trainers running such obvious non-stayers as Janidil, The Goffer etc and then Stattler who never went a yard on the ground is disappointing to say the least.
Much appreciate your comments and glad they worked out for you.
For my winning candidates I go e/w and early for reasonable prices, but for my place candidates the Top 10 finish was a really useful market this year and I'll continue to make use of it in future.
It's the diff between a modest profit and a >100% one.
Forgot to mention Reserves but I totally agree with you.
I also think it's more important than ever that the handicapper uses the unique discretion he has not just to "equalise" the Irish and British marks (like that matters now anyway) but, as he once did with Amberleigh House, give the best specialist stayers a slightly higher mark to give them the best chance of making the cut.
I said it before and I'll say it till I'm blue in the face, this race has to be open to the obviously best stayers in the game and Christian Williams would gladly have carried an extra 2 or 3 lbs and be 90% assured a run than miss the cut.
He got lucky this year in squeezing in at declarations and IMHO it was only the ground that stopped him being 2nd or even vying to win it. But he himself doubts that Kitty's will have the necessary mark to have another tilt.
All the best.
I would always prefer Peanuts' commentary, explanation and methodology (even if I can only ever follow about half of it). And, as I am sure we all know, ChatGPT isn't calculating the likely winner; it's just using large language models to create a piece of prose that is reasonable and comprehensible.
For what it's worth, I used ChatGPT's answer (above) and put a £1 free bet from William Hill on Corach Rambler. My "proper" bet, using real money, went E/W on the second horse ChatGPT listed, I Am Maximus.
Thank you for your reply. I was referring to the race in general when seeking your conclusions and you have obviously given it a lot of thought. To my mind the 20% reduction in the field with the late withdrawals and the other changes this year appear to have achieved the aims of the authorities for less fallers etc. May be this has something to do with the better class of horses taking part but it is not the Grand National as we knew it. Ruby Walsh gave his view before the race that the reduction in numbers would help jockeys to be in the right places coming into the fences. I thought it was a bit simplistic. There needs to be some way of stopping the big battalions from running no hopers to monopolise the chances of their real fancies.
With regard to your module I never cease to be amazed by the wealth of information you produce and it is a great help. I think it is becoming very important to identify horses with good chances to take advantage of the ante post market as some of the prices nearer the race are squeezed dramatically.
Essential to get in early with the win selections in particular.
The average price of the model's top rated was materially lower this year and that could well be how it is going forward.
At least I managed to highlight and get on Max when he was 25s, prior to the Bobbyjo and he was always going to make the cut.
Bookies did not go NRNB this year any earlier than usual and so it's riskier now ante-post with those at 80~100/1 in the 140~145 OR territory, unless you're pretty sure they will declare and you'll get your stake back if they're balloted out.
But you just have to adapt as the circumstances change and opportunities are presented - reasonable value Top 5 and Top 10 finish at least enabled me to dispense with the probably-wasted win portion of e/w for some of the place candidates and make a nice profit on Roi Mage completing in 9th - even dropping to 4/1, it was the best banker bet around this year!
Was surprised to be ahead as much as 185% backing 7 because the risk/return profile has definitely deteriorated. In the old days, you could breakeven with a single place - little to no chance now.
I know you weren't enquiring specifically about the model but I'll just make a quick summary of my thoughts - if only as an aide memoire for possible tweaks to the formulae.
Positives for the model:
- and 5 of its top 7 picks finishing in the first 10 is a clear
outperformance (7 runners = 22% of the field, accounting for 50% of the
first 10 home).
But this year, as ever, it missed some important frame-makers and there are definitely stat-departures to mull over and, possibly, pointers for the future. It was certainly a "clean" race without too many mishaps, so the "stat-busters" making the frame certainly demand attention.They were, of course, 2nd, 3rd and 4th - the meat in the sandwich of Maximus and Kitty. Each had at least 4 stat-fails, as indeed did 6th place Ain't That A Shame but all 4 broke 1 big stat:
- Days since Last Run - like a lot of GN trend systems, my model looks for a prep run <50 days prior (84 days absolute maximum provided the runner has a good record after 50 day+ breaks). But none of these 4 had run since the weights were allotted 53 days prior (120 days prior in Minella Indo's case) and none had particularly strong records after a long break.
What's interesting though is that each of Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin were of course primed to run in the abandoned XC at The Festival, 31 days prior.Henry de Bromhead may well have put his finger on it when said after the race: “We were trying to turn a negative into a positive (with the cross country chase being abandoned), but maybe with how the ground had gone (at Cheltenham) it might have taken the edge off him."
Maximus hadn't run for 49 days prior to Aintree and had had a comparatively comfortable win in the Bobbyjo.
That "no lengthy break" rule held up strongly for all other runners where it applied - Panda Boy (70 days - 17th), Mahler Mission (133- not going well when UR at The Chair), Chemical Energy (206 - PU) and Foxy Jacks (107 - PU).
Was it that those 3 had been primed to run but were spared the exertions that gave them an edge?
Certainly most of those that ran in the sapping conditions at Cheltenham, despite the 4 weeks of rest, disappointed in the race.
Kittys was the best finisher but perhaps one reason for his not quite getting home on Saturday was down to his determinedly staying-on 7th in the Ultima.
Difficult to conclude much about Corach Rambler but Noble Yeats and Limerick Lace (both with competitive races at Cheltenham) were notable disappointments.
Other unusual stats for the frame-makers, though not for Soft-ground GNs.
- The first 4 home all carried 11.00+. Again, we'd noted before the race that a big weight is less of a disadvantage
on testing ground. But even on better ground, we'd had the winner and 4 of the first 6 carry 11.00+ in 2019 and 5 of the first 6 in 2022 and 3 of the first 5 do so last year.
Nonetheless, with 47% of those that lined up carrying 11.00+ (30% the average for the previous 4 GNs) and something above 45% perhaps the regular future pattern, the weight factor stat-test is one that deserves another close look from the perspective of potentially adjusting the model's absolute weight-tolerance formula to the smaller field size.It will take a while for me to crunch the numbers for all the possible tweaks to the model to reconcile the stat-busters, and weigh up whether or not to put them into effect or simply treat one or more of Delta Work, Minella Indo and Galvin as outliers. I don't think Delta or Galvin will pose that big a problem to reconcile, with marginal tweaks to a couple of stats. Not so sure about Minella and the key judgement, as always, with tweaking a model is, are these tweaks logical and likely to improve the selection of winners or might they cause the net to be cast too wide?
With the model having picked 4 of the 7 winners and 4 runners-up 2006~2012, it then had a difficult time adjusting to the major changes to course and trip, selecting frame-makers but no winner again until 2018 (and then me choosing to give him the swerve as regards backing him ....... twice - yes it was Tiger Roll !!). It's now picked 4 of the last 6 winners, so I'm fairly happy it's caught up with "modern GNs" - I'll have to use my best judgement in accommodating it to the smaller field size.
One way or another, a shiny new model will be rolled out well in time for the next GN.
Still got those brochures for Bora Bora
Have a good summer folks!
I really enjoy this race and backed Ellott's first GN winner after running in this race.
Good luck with tweaking your model.
Well done, many congrats.
I was on McKelvey that year!!!! Ugh!!!!
I don't have a model for other staying chases and I do a fraction of the research on them that I do for Aintree.
However, I did put the slide rule over Desertmore House and I wasn't crazy about him for the GN - his pedigree doesn't scream 34f to me - but 29f might be more the ticket.
Career-best RPR140 came from his Kerry National win when OR135, the form of which looks OK but not stellar. But he was then comfortably beaten twice off OR145, including in the Paddy Power - the form of which has always looked so-so to me and neither of the well-fancied Panda Boy nor Meetingofthewaters did anything on Saturday to change my view.
He is obviously unexposed beyond 25f and has a decent win ratio at 24~25f, though at a highest mark of 135.
One concern I'd have is that, while his flat horses are running well, Brassil's jumpers have been in a slump for a while now (e.g. again Panda Boy).
Still a way to go to know who will actually be lining up at Sandown so I haven't looked closely at the field but I doubt that he'll be making it onto my own slip tbh.
But then, what do I know? 29f is like a sprint to me
Basic stats:
- Age not a particular issue - winners since 1996 7~11yo (same range last 10). The whole field this year is younger than 11
The favourite (Macdermott for Mullins) is a 6yo but it's stamina doubts rather than age that prompt me to readily oppose on the likely stamina-sapping ground (more rain forecast tomorrow for Ayr).There's a number with no such doubts, being proven 4 milers, including the Eider winner Anglers Crag (+8lbs) and comfortable Edinburgh National winner, though on GS, Inis Oirr (up a whopping +14lbs and nothing has come out of that race to suggest he'll be good for it on Saturday - a touch of the Nassalam's mark-wise methinks).
Presumably it was the close finish to the Midlands National that failed to impress the handicapper. The first 3 re-oppose on Saturday, with Beauport just +5lbs for his win and close 2nd Mr Incredible +3lbs.
If Mr I has a good-humoured day and wins this, I shall have a distinctly foul-humoured one. 12 stone not having inconvenienced him at Uttoxeter, even with at least 11.09 to shoulder this time, he's a huge threat if he takes to the occasion and track. But, at 7/1, there's little value in again chancing his mood, accident-proneness and touch of seconditis.
So, while not scintillating prices and I won't place any bets until after tomorrow's declarations, I'm eyeing up 4:
MY SILVER LINING - currently 16/1
8yo mare, close 3rd in the Midlands National, on consistency grounds she gets the nod ahead of Beauport (20/1) for me, though both are decent e/w value.
GIT MAKER - 10/1
8yo, only 1lb higher for his (not stopping) Kim Muir 2nd to Inothewayurthinkin (follow up Grade 1 winner at Aintree of course), both well clear of the pack. We know Cheltenham exacted a toll on several, 4 weeks later at Aintree but he tends to takes his races well (2211 in space of 80 days last season), came fresh to Cheltenham and, given the winner's follow up, I'll chance it with the extra week.
TOMMIE BEAU - 33/1
9yo, off the same mark as when 7L 3rd in the heavy-ground Eider (hampered 2 out) and 2nd in Plumpton's Sussex National (Soft). The form of the Eider looks decent, with 5th (Cruz Control) winning off +6lbs at Aintree and 4th, off +9lbs, ran better than her 19L 6th in the Midlands National appears (bled). Been around the block so doesn't look the likely winner but, again, decent each way value.
SPANISH HARLEM - 20/1
Going out on a limb with my last selection - the other 6yo of Willie Mullins in the race, without a chase win of any description but IMHO could go really well.
Expensive purchase by Mullins from France 2 years ago (won his only outing there, a competitive 2m hurdle), on debut as a novice in Ireland placed close behind Inothewayurthinkin, again in a 2m hurdle.
Career to date entirely at 16~20.5f and just 3 chases (unplaced) BUT is built and has run like a stayer and pedigree strongly points that way - from the family of 26f winner Roi Des Frances and 29f Welsh GN and Warwick National winner Le Beau Bai and materially linebred to Wild Risk.
I hope they all line up. Should be a belter.
Best of luck.
Thank Gawd I took the prices yesterday.
Spanish Harlem’s now 8/1 co fav with Git Maker after Paul Townend chooses to ride him.
Interesting that Mr Incredible will be Patrick Mullins’ ride (whose project he is) and Brian Hayes (who had got a tune out of him until last Saturday) is on Ontheropes.
Drying ground didn't do any favours for quite a few.
1 Macdermott won by the finest of whiskers
2 Surrey Quest
3 Git Maker
4 Klarc Kent
5 Ontheropes
6 Spanish Harlem
Willie Mullins scores winner, 4,5 and 6
FFS Mr Incredible - you could weep. Jumped off but pulled himself up before the first fence. What a waste of talent.