Hadn’t realised almost everyone below us picked up points yesterday. Makes that fortunate late equaliser we got look quite important. And shows we’re not quite home and hosed yet. Need to pick up that one more win soon, and ideally avoid defeat vs Cambridge too.
I do worry a bit that our performances have been getting a bit worse each week since Northampton away. Not to the extent that I’m worried about relegation again, at least not yet, but I wouldn’t totally rule out us getting sucked back into a bit again.
Hadn’t realised almost everyone below us picked up points yesterday. Makes that fortunate late equaliser we got look quite important. And shows we’re not quite home and hosed yet. Need to pick up that one more win soon, and ideally avoid defeat vs Cambridge too.
I do worry a bit that our performances have been getting a bit worse each week since Northampton away. Not to the extent that I’m worried about relegation again, at least not yet, but I wouldn’t totally rule out us getting sucked back into a bit again.
Hadn’t realised almost everyone below us picked up points yesterday. Makes that fortunate late equaliser we got look quite important. And shows we’re not quite home and hosed yet. Need to pick up that one more win soon, and ideally avoid defeat vs Cambridge too.
I do worry a bit that our performances have been getting a bit worse each week since Northampton away. Not to the extent that I’m worried about relegation again, at least not yet, but I wouldn’t totally rule out us getting sucked back into a bit again.
We're safe already.
It will be interesting to see if 46 points ends up being enough. I don't think it will be, but I can't see us not picking up more points. Am I worried? No, but why say we're safe already? Isn't it a fact that we're not?
Looking at the fixtures we have left, I think NJ will be disappointed if we don't finish top half, after watching the Exeter game, I feel we have a way of pulling out results from the depth of defeat which would have been a given pre NJ's arrival...looking forward to next season already...
I think even under NJ we’re bang mid table league one. Results and better but still indifferent performances seem to confirm that. Major squad revamp required.
Top half would be amazing. Highest we could realistically finish is 11th, but that would mean getting at least another 7 points, and probably more like 11 or 12, even if you are an optimist.
In reality I think finishing any higher than we are would be good going.
Hadn’t realised almost everyone below us picked up points yesterday. Makes that fortunate late equaliser we got look quite important. And shows we’re not quite home and hosed yet. Need to pick up that one more win soon, and ideally avoid defeat vs Cambridge too.
I do worry a bit that our performances have been getting a bit worse each week since Northampton away. Not to the extent that I’m worried about relegation again, at least not yet, but I wouldn’t totally rule out us getting sucked back into a bit again.
We're safe already.
It will be interesting to see if 46 points ends up being enough. I don't think it will be, but I can't see us not picking up more points. Am I worried? No, but why say we're safe already? Isn't it a fact that we're not?
Agreed. A lot will depend on what Port Vale and Cheltenham do with their games in hand. If they lose them then 46 should be enough. If they win them then it not might be more like 49 points. Both of them have faltered a bit lately but won yesterday and have managed to put together good runs before this season. Cheltenham’s games in hand are Carlisle and Burton and very winnable. Vale’s is tougher on paper vs Peterbrough, but Posh managed to lose to Carlisle at home yesterday so who knows. Funny things happen at this time of the season and it is far from impossible for them to get, say, 1.5 points per game for the rest of the season which would get them into the high 40s for total points.
On the flip side, we have seen our team, time and time again, start well under a new manager and then lose form and, on occasion, fall of a cliff results wise. Nathan Jones has done much to improve us but since Northampton we have played exclusively teams in the bottom third of the table and, although we have managed to pick up points, the performances have definitely been laboured and not without issues.
I think if we play like we did vs Carlisle, Fleetwood, and Exeter we will probably lose our next two against Stevenage and Barnsley, both teams going for promotion. Knowing us, we’ll just as likely perk up and win both those as we are likely to lose them, but we start both games as second favourite.
If do lose our next two and teams below us pick up 3 or 4 points then I would say it would drag us back into it a bit.
We should still be able to get enough points to be certainly safe, I think one win will be enough, but it’s hard to trust this squad. If we do lose the next two then it’s far from impossible that old problems will resurface and we could go on another mini slump to the end of the season. We’re still vulnerable until we have those extra points in the board.
50 points is the most anybody has got relegated in the past 30 years. The average is 48. With our goal difference we need 1 win to be safe, unless a new record is made.
I think even under NJ we’re bang mid table league one. Results and better but still indifferent performances seem to confirm that. Major squad revamp required.
I can't deny we need a few new players but Jones has 15 points from 10 games, which in the form table since he joined currently has us 8th. He's had to play the top 3 sides in that run as well as 6 of the last 8 games away from home. Over a season that PPG averages to 69 points so even with the (pretty average) current squad he would be doing a bit better than mid-table.
I'm excited for next season as i don't think Jones will have come here without certain promises and he's already talking about getting new signings in early. With the additions we know we need i'm confident he'll have us right up there in the top 6.
Burton also have to play Cheltenham so obviously a game where 1 or both will drop more points. 2 of Port Vale's remaining games are away to Peterborough and Bolton so i can't see them getting much there.
Barnsley look certs to make the playoffs but I was pleased they won today as two defeats on the trot would have them fired up for Saturday. They lost at home to Cambridge, and only drew at home with Cheltenham before that so there is definitely some complancy there so I hope (more in expectation) that we have a go at them. As for Wigan they are just poodling along with very up and down scores so again, have a go.
However, as we've seen so far Nathan is clearly setting up not to lose each game so I don't think the words flair and attack will appear in the same sentence alongside the name Charlton in the remaining games.
Barnsley look certs to make the playoffs but I was pleased they won today as two defeats on the trot would have them fired up for Saturday. They lost at home to Cambridge, and only drew at home with Cheltenham before that so there is definitely some complancy there so I hope (more in expectation) that we have a go at them. As for Wigan they are just poodling along with very up and down scores so again, have a go.
However, as we've seen so far Nathan is clearly setting up not to lose each game so I don't think the words flair and attack will appear in the same sentence alongside the name Charlton in the remaining games.
I don't think he has any other option at the moment. That needs to change during the summer window.
Absolutely no way are we going down … ridiculous to even consider it
47.9 is the average points total needed to stay up. There have been 20+ teams relegated with 47+ points. There has never been a team relegated with 52 points.
Comments
I do worry a bit that our performances have been getting a bit worse each week since Northampton away. Not to the extent that I’m worried about relegation again, at least not yet, but I wouldn’t totally rule out us getting sucked back into a bit again.
In reality I think finishing any higher than we are would be good going.
I think if we play like we did vs Carlisle, Fleetwood, and Exeter we will probably lose our next two against Stevenage and Barnsley, both teams going for promotion. Knowing us, we’ll just as likely perk up and win both those as we are likely to lose them, but we start both games as second favourite.
If do lose our next two and teams below us pick up 3 or 4 points then I would say it would drag us back into it a bit.
I'm excited for next season as i don't think Jones will have come here without certain promises and he's already talking about getting new signings in early. With the additions we know we need i'm confident he'll have us right up there in the top 6.
Burton 7 behind (no games in hand)
Port Vale 8 behind (one game in hand)
Cheltenham 9 behind (two games in hand)
Really do think we’re fine now. One more win would be lovely for comfort’s sake.
2 of Port Vale's remaining games are away to Peterborough and Bolton so i can't see them getting much there.
However, I can see us losing to Barnsley & only getting a point against Wigan....so going into the Cambridge game still looking over our shoulder.
Just so grateful we beat Cheltenham last month because the way we are looking at the moment getting to 50 points is looking a struggle.
However, as we've seen so far Nathan is clearly setting up not to lose each game so I don't think the words flair and attack will appear in the same sentence alongside the name Charlton in the remaining games.
21
Port Vale
40
10
9
21
38
63
-25
39
We're fine.
Two out of Burton, Port Vale and Cheltenham are going down.
Probably less than a 5% chance of us going down but given the last 3 games ws've played I wouldn't bank on us winning another game this season.
We should be safe by the time we play Shrewsbury at home. Last home game of the season & a tight 0-0 will be cheered to the rafters.
What a time to be alive.
Port Vale 1/2
Burton 4/6
Cheltenham 6/4
Reading 7/1
Shrewsbury 9/1
Cambridge 9/1
Charlton 100/1
https://www.thestatszone.com/football/how-many-points-are-needed-for-league-1-survival