With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)
- 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or - 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or - 53, 55, 52 if Burton won
So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).
With none of the bottom 4 winning I think we can say that we are safe.
Yes. I’ve felt we were safe 2 or 3 games ago, but now I think relegation is so unlikely as to be disregarded.
Of the bottom 5, Fleetwood and Carlisle now can’t catch us and the maximum points for Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton if they all won all their remaining games is 56, 55 and 52 respectively. Our goal difference is 20 goals better than all of them and we’re on 50.
Absolutely no chance.
Burton and Cheltenham can't both win all of their remaining games - its impossible because they still have to play one another.
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
Good catch… So it’d be 56, 55, 49 or 55, 55, 53 or 55, 54, 53.
Correcting myself… It’d be (in CTFC, PVFC, BAFC order)
- 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or - 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or - 53, 55, 52 if Burton won
So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).
Even if Burton and Cheltenham were to overtake us, you would still need at least three of Reading, Shrewsbury, Cambridge and Port Vale to ALSO overtake us to push us into the bottom 4. Extremely unlikely
I've been of a more nervous disposition than many concerning fears of relegation, but there is no right or wrong outlook as we don't all see things the same way. However, after Barnsley, even I'm no longer worried 🙂
Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.
But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
If Cheltenham fail to win on Sat we are mathematically safe even if we lose all our remaining games (bar an unlikely swing of 23 goals for Cheltenham and them winning all their remaining games).
Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.
But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:
Port Vale away at Peterborough tonight. PV still have five games left but I’d be shocked if they got a result tonight.
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.
But both of them can’t get those totals together since they have to play each other. So it’d be 53 and 49 max if Cheltenham won, 50 and 52 if Burton won and 51 and 50 if they drew.
After Port Vale's defeat tonight, we have maximum tallies of the following:
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers Fleetwood Town v Northampton Town Port Vale v Exeter City Stevenage v Burton Albion Charlton Athletic v Cambridge United Shrewsbury Town v Wycombe Wanders
Think really today it's all about the Port Vale, Cheltenham and Burton games.
Can't see Cambridge or Shrewsbury getting caught up in the fight now.
Fleets last 3 - Peterboro, Orient, Burton - basically have to win all 3 and even then relying on others - think they're toast
Chelts last 4 - Burton, Lincoln, Peterboro, Stevenage - HAVE to beat Burton, but even then I would still make them massive underdogs because they need 2 wins minimum (3 if they don't beat Burton) - think they are toast as well.
Vale last 3; Wycombe, Bolton, Cambridge - GD a bit against them and I think they would need to pick up 2 wins minimum - i'd say they have the bigger chance but ironically they NEED Chelts to beat Burton, even a draw probably hurts them because of the GD.
Burton - well we know 2 games the other is against Reading - they just have to not get beat by Chelts in my estimation.
Based on all that i'm revising down my predicted points total to be safe to 44.
Comments
I stand by what I said a few weeks ago, I think 46 points is enough this year. Glad we made it to 50 with time to spare though
- 56, 55, 49 if Cheltenham won or
- 54, 55, 50 if that game is drawn or
- 53, 55, 52 if Burton won
So mathematically the Burton win would be the best option, bringing the minimum target for safety down to 54 points (or 53 with superior goal difference) from 56 points (or 55 with superior goal difference).
After Cheltenham lost last night, they can now get a maximum of 53 points. Burton can get a maximum of 52 points.
- Cheltenham (53)
- Burton (52)
- Port Vale (52)
Port Vale's fixtures: Exeter (H), Wycombe (H), Bolton (A), Cambridge (H)
Burton's fixtures: Stevenage (A), Cheltenham (H), Reading (H), Fleetwood (A)
Cheltenham's fixtures: Bristol R (H), Burton (A), Lincoln (H), Peterborough (H), Stevenage (A)
21
Port Vale
42
10
10
22
38
66
-28
40
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town v Northampton Town
Port Vale v Exeter City
Stevenage v Burton Albion
Charlton Athletic v Cambridge United
Shrewsbury Town v Wycombe Wanders
Think really today it's all about the Port Vale, Cheltenham and Burton games.
Can't see Cambridge or Shrewsbury getting caught up in the fight now.
Cheltenham can still catch Burton but they must beat them in midweek.
But if Burton beat Cheltenham in midweek, I think you’re right.
Chelts last 4 - Burton, Lincoln, Peterboro, Stevenage - HAVE to beat Burton, but even then I would still make them massive underdogs because they need 2 wins minimum (3 if they don't beat Burton) - think they are toast as well.
Vale last 3; Wycombe, Bolton, Cambridge - GD a bit against them and I think they would need to pick up 2 wins minimum - i'd say they have the bigger chance but ironically they NEED Chelts to beat Burton, even a draw probably hurts them because of the GD.
Burton - well we know 2 games the other is against Reading - they just have to not get beat by Chelts in my estimation.
Based on all that i'm revising down my predicted points total to be safe to 44.
21
Port Vale
43
10
10
23
40
70
-30
40
Wouldn't say it's over just yet...
A Burton win midweek though would make things pretty much done and dusted.
I'm sure everyone in Barcelona and Dortmund will have one eye on this key 6 pointer.
Fleetwood in front after 17 seconds!