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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch
    Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch Posts: 1,789
    Before today's performance I saw us as having a one in four chance of winning the playoff lottery. After that dominant performance I now have genuine belief that we are capable of winning the playoffs - the lottery element doesn't need to come into the equation. Assuming no bad luck with injuries, obviously.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,787
    Scoham said:
    Callumcafc said:
    I can’t not see Wrexham easily beating both Burton and Bristol Rovers at home. We need them to drop points at Cambridge and Wigan otherwise they’ll have those 12 points with three games left to play.

    And then we’re hoping that Blackpool and Lincoln do the business against them, as well as us winning in North Wales.

    Wycombe feel much more catchable with their horrendous run-in. If we can overtake them and secure a home 2nd leg that would be excellent.
    Wouldn’t we get a home second leg if we finish 3rd or 4th?
    Yes but our spot in 4th is not at all comfortable. Expecting Stockport to finish strong - I can see a world where they finish 3rd, us or Wycombe in 4th. 

    As long as we finish above one of them…
  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,594
    Lincoln play Huddersfield on Tuesday.
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,883
    Automatic is looking unlikely now. Instead it's looking quite likely that we and Stockport will be playing each other in the playoffs, we we are both well clear of 6th.

    I liked Stockport 3 weeks ago, though not so much that I wanted to return there in May, but so be it  :D
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    killerandflash said:
    Automatic is looking unlikely now. Instead it's looking quite likely that we and Stockport will be playing each other in the playoffs, we we are both well clear of 6th.

    I liked Stockport 3 weeks ago, though not so much that I wanted to return there in May, but so be it  :D
    With Wycombe's run in there is no reason why we cant get 3rd. In fact I'd say that Wycombe might even finish 5th !
  • C_Dubz
    C_Dubz Posts: 38
    Its scripted by the EFL that Wrexham go up. The pen decision for their 2nd today was a joke. Filthy dive.

    Lets enjoy a run into the play offs and hope we can overcome Stockport/Wycombe
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,179
    Win our remaining home games and we’ll be in for sure. Blackpool have pulled themselves back into contention and are the toughest game for Wrexham apart from us. Winning all our remaining games might give us chance of 2nd but that is a big ask. 
  • carly burn
    carly burn Posts: 19,472
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Win our remaining home games and we’ll be in for sure. Blackpool have pulled themselves back into contention and are the toughest game for Wrexham apart from us. Winning all our remaining games might give us chance of 2nd but that is a big ask. 
     To get 90 points and not go up would be tough to take!
    Would such a monumental effort leave anything in the tank for the playoffs?
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,179
    carly burn said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Win our remaining home games and we’ll be in for sure. Blackpool have pulled themselves back into contention and are the toughest game for Wrexham apart from us. Winning all our remaining games might give us chance of 2nd but that is a big ask. 
     To get 90 points and not go up would be tough to take!
    Would such a monumental effort leave anything in the tank for the playoffs?
    I forget which game it was, but there’s was one we lost in the run in in 2019 that ultimately kind of killed our late run at automatic promotion. At the time it was a disappointment but come the end of the season I think it was a blessing because even if we’d win it we’d have missed out. It meant that we got the disappointment out of the way and when we had a big win on the last game of the season it felt more like a celebration and we took all that late season momentum into the playoffs. You’re right, it might be better to lose by a length than a nose in this situation. 
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,034
    carly burn said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Win our remaining home games and we’ll be in for sure. Blackpool have pulled themselves back into contention and are the toughest game for Wrexham apart from us. Winning all our remaining games might give us chance of 2nd but that is a big ask. 
     To get 90 points and not go up would be tough to take!
    Would such a monumental effort leave anything in the tank for the playoffs?
    2 years ago Sheffield Wednesday got 96 points and that wasn't enough for automatic promotion.

    They did go up in the play offs though, after coming back from a 4-0 first leg defeat.

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  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,733
    I think we have zero margin in terms of the automatics but if we keep winning games, who knows?
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,307
    edited March 30
    Yesterday was the day which clinched the play offs for us IMO (goal difference is basically an extra point over Reading & Bolton). 
    The results yesterday have us on course to meet Stockport over two legs. Wrexham/Wycombe improving form means it will be difficult to catch them, whilst none of the pack chasing 6th place seem consistent enough to catch us or Stockport up.

    Just have to hope that we are mathematically still in the hunt for 2nd by the time we play Wycombe, but personally don’t see Wycombe/Wrexham slipping up enough to let us back in.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,629
    I’d say playoffs is almost certain now. It would take a spectacular fall from grace not to get sixth. Peterborough put a nail in the top two coffin but might just have been the spur that helps cement top six. Three more wins and two more draws should seal it. 
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,307
    edited March 30
    Our goal difference is reduced back to 6 goals against Wrexham. Could mean nothing come the end of the season, but it is nice that we have managed to reduce the number with our big win yesterday.
  • twiggyaddick
    twiggyaddick Posts: 1,565
    Exiled_Addick said:
    carly burn said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Win our remaining home games and we’ll be in for sure. Blackpool have pulled themselves back into contention and are the toughest game for Wrexham apart from us. Winning all our remaining games might give us chance of 2nd but that is a big ask. 
     To get 90 points and not go up would be tough to take!
    Would such a monumental effort leave anything in the tank for the playoffs?
    I forget which game it was, but there’s was one we lost in the run in in 2019 that ultimately kind of killed our late run at automatic promotion. At the time it was a disappointment but come the end of the season I think it was a blessing because even if we’d win it we’d have missed out. It meant that we got the disappointment out of the way and when we had a big win on the last game of the season it felt more like a celebration and we took all that late season momentum into the playoffs. You’re right, it might be better to lose by a length than a nose in this situation. 
    Oxford away I think 
  • Scoham
    Scoham Posts: 37,386
    SouthWest_Addicks said:
    Our goal difference is reduced back to 6 goals against Wrexham. Could mean nothing come the end of the season, but it is nice that we have managed to reduce the number with our big win yesterday.
    For goal difference to matter for 2nd place we’d need to have won all our games or close to it, and Wrexham will have had to lose a few. If both those things happen our goal difference should be closer, so I don’t think it’s something we need to be too concerned about.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,016
    Masterbrew said:
    I've made a projection, using points per game (PPG) so far for the top 11 and calculating that over the season, then seeing the PPG we will need to achieve to be one point ahead of those teams. 


    		 P Pts PPG Projected PPG req
    Birmingham City 24 56 2.33 107 3.40
    Wycombe Wanderers 26 54 2.08 96 2.84
    Wrexham 26 51 1.96 90 2.58
    Huddersfield Town 25 48 1.92 88 2.49
    Barnsley 26 42 1.62 74 1.82
    Stockport County 26 41 1.58 73 1.74
    Reading 25 41 1.64 75 1.88
    Leyton Orient 25 38 1.52 70 1.62
    Bolton Wanderers 26 38 1.46 67 1.49
    Charlton Athletic 25 37 1.48 68
    Mansfield Town 24 37 1.54 71 1.66

    On this basis, Birmingham are uncatchable so far as we are concerned whilst overtaking Wycombe would require winning just about every game. Automatic promotion is evidently out of the question.

    Re-ordering the list on the basis of PPG:

    		 P Pts PPG Projected PPG req
    Birmingham City 24 56 2.33 107 3.40
    Wycombe Wanderers 26 54 2.08 96 2.84
    Wrexham 26 51 1.96 90 2.58
    Huddersfield Town 25 48 1.92 88 2.49
    Reading 25 41 1.64 75 1.88
    Barnsley 26 42 1.62 74 1.82
    Mansfield Town 24 37 1.54 71 1.66
    Stockport County 26 41 1.58 73 1.74
    Leyton Orient 25 38 1.52 70 1.62
    Charlton Athletic 25 37 1.48 68
    Bolton Wanderers 26 38 1.46 67 1.49

    Sixth place requires Charlton to achieve over 1.82 PPG until the end of the season. Fifth and sixth are currently close, so either could be achieved but would be demanding.

    Mansfield  :o
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,787
    edited March 30


    The highest percentages on this table:

    1. Birmingham to be promoted (100%)
    2. Birmingham to win the league (99.92%)
    3. Charlton to be in the playoffs (92.34%)


    Wrexham xPTS at 89 and Wycombe at 87 xPTS. If we win every game until the end of the season we get 90 pts.
  • cafcnick1992
    cafcnick1992 Posts: 7,414
    After that performance I'm convinced we're going to overtake Birmingham 
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,307
    Record points total in league 1 is 103 for Wolves. Birmingham could still get 113 points. Fancy them to comfortably go past 103 with their remaining fixtures.

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  • BigRedEvil
    BigRedEvil Posts: 11,076
    Wycombe have a really tough run in, every possibility us and Stockport can finish above them 
  • Garrymanilow
    Garrymanilow Posts: 13,176
    Reading haven't lost since 28th January. It really is looking like being a tough set of Playoffs
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,812
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) WON 4-0
    Barnsley (5) WON 1-0
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)  WON 3-0
    Stevenage (16)  WON 2-0
    Wigan (17)  WON 2-1
    Bristol Rovers (18)  WON 2-0
    Peterborough (19)  WON 2-1
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)  WON 1-0
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.

    For the first time since 1980, 8 home wins on the bounce (F17-A2). Fortress Valley. The place no team wants to come to. 
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,883
    Addick Addict said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) WON 4-0
    Barnsley (5) WON 1-0
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)  WON 3-0
    Stevenage (16)  WON 2-0
    Wigan (17)  WON 2-1
    Bristol Rovers (18)  WON 2-0
    Peterborough (19)  WON 2-1
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)  WON 1-0
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.

    For the first time since 1980, 8 home wins on the bounce (F17-A2). Fortress Valley. The place no team wants to come to. 
    With our remaining 3 home fixtures looking straightforward, there's a good chance it will be 11 by the time we get to the playoffs.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    golfaddick said:
    No.


    Obviously I meant Yes.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    supaclive said:
    No

    Brum
    And any 1 from 3 to go up in 2nd

    Wycombe
    Wrexham
    Huddersfield

    That's the top 4

    Barnsley for me 5th

    Then we have to overcome

    Orient (I mean jesus Orient! 5 wins from 5)
    Bolton
    Stockport
    Mansfield (4 wins from 5)
    Reading


    I don't see us overtaking them all to make 6th
    I do love going back over this thread and reading what people thought. Back in January most of us thought we had no chance (just look at some of the teams in the mix back then). Now we are almost certainly in the play offs. It might even be guaranteed after the Northampton match. Now that would be a Good Friday 🙂.
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,812
    killerandflash said:
    Addick Addict said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) WON 4-0
    Barnsley (5) WON 1-0
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)  WON 3-0
    Stevenage (16)  WON 2-0
    Wigan (17)  WON 2-1
    Bristol Rovers (18)  WON 2-0
    Peterborough (19)  WON 2-1
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)  WON 1-0
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.

    For the first time since 1980, 8 home wins on the bounce (F17-A2). Fortress Valley. The place no team wants to come to. 
    With our remaining 3 home fixtures looking straightforward, there's a good chance it will be 11 by the time we get to the playoffs.
    To think I had the cheek to only hope for 9 wins and 2 draws! We have picked up 8 points from 6 away games which is in line with the 1.3 points per away game I thought we would need too. As a result, that prediction of 79 points is going to be a bit on the low side but we would still a miracle for automatic promotion.

    It's vital that we carry on winning, especially if that means beating Wrexham and Wycombe, for our own continued confidence and to initially play that 6th placed side - one of Reading (hard to beat recently but who have only won 5 of their last 15 games), Huddersfield (have won 5 from 17), Bolton (lost 3 on the bounce) or Orient (lost 5 of last 7). 
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,883
    Addick Addict said:
    killerandflash said:
    Addick Addict said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) WON 4-0
    Barnsley (5) WON 1-0
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)  WON 3-0
    Stevenage (16)  WON 2-0
    Wigan (17)  WON 2-1
    Bristol Rovers (18)  WON 2-0
    Peterborough (19)  WON 2-1
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)  WON 1-0
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.

    For the first time since 1980, 8 home wins on the bounce (F17-A2). Fortress Valley. The place no team wants to come to. 
    With our remaining 3 home fixtures looking straightforward, there's a good chance it will be 11 by the time we get to the playoffs.
    To think I had the cheek to only hope for 9 wins and 2 draws! We have picked up 8 points from 6 away games which is in line with the 1.3 points per away game I thought we would need too. As a result, that prediction of 79 points is going to be a bit on the low side but we would still a miracle for automatic promotion.

    It's vital that we carry on winning, especially if that means beating Wrexham and Wycombe, for our own continued confidence and to initially play that 6th placed side - one of Reading (hard to beat recently but who have only won 5 of their last 15 games), Huddersfield (have won 5 from 17), Bolton (lost 3 on the bounce) or Orient (lost 5 of last 7). 
    That's 11 HOME wins on the bounce by the end of the season!
  • Valley11
    Valley11 Posts: 12,001
    If we make the play offs, being at home for the second leg is so important I think. We’re been so strong at The Valley this season. Plus backed by a sold out crowd. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,787
    killerandflash said:
    Addick Addict said:
    killerandflash said:
    Addick Addict said:
    Addick Addict said:
    With the remaining fixtures, as they are, if we are to have any chance of making the Play Offs, we have to somehow turn the Valley into a fortress. We could not ask for an easier set of remaining home fixtures but when you've only scored 14 in 12 there, you do become wholly reliant on keeping clean sheets. If Rotherham were to just draw their game in hand then they will leapfrog Lincoln meaning that all bar two of our games at home are against teams in the bottom half of the table:

    Huddersfield (4) WON 4-0
    Barnsley (5) WON 1-0
    Lincoln (12)
    Exeter (14)  WON 3-0
    Stevenage (16)  WON 2-0
    Wigan (17)  WON 2-1
    Bristol Rovers (18)  WON 2-0
    Peterborough (19)  WON 2-1
    Northampton (20)
    Shrewsbury (22)  WON 1-0
    Burton (23)

    9 home wins plus 2 draws at home and 1.3 points a game when away (our current average) would take us to 79 points - almost certainly enough to get us into the Play Offs given the even level of ability of the teams in the division.

    For the first time since 1980, 8 home wins on the bounce (F17-A2). Fortress Valley. The place no team wants to come to. 
    With our remaining 3 home fixtures looking straightforward, there's a good chance it will be 11 by the time we get to the playoffs.
    To think I had the cheek to only hope for 9 wins and 2 draws! We have picked up 8 points from 6 away games which is in line with the 1.3 points per away game I thought we would need too. As a result, that prediction of 79 points is going to be a bit on the low side but we would still a miracle for automatic promotion.

    It's vital that we carry on winning, especially if that means beating Wrexham and Wycombe, for our own continued confidence and to initially play that 6th placed side - one of Reading (hard to beat recently but who have only won 5 of their last 15 games), Huddersfield (have won 5 from 17), Bolton (lost 3 on the bounce) or Orient (lost 5 of last 7). 
    That's 11 HOME wins on the bounce by the end of the season!
    It’ll be 12 heading to Wembley :-)

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