Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

WPAddick

Just realised my brother and I will be in Milan for the first leg of play off fixtures. Might be a long shot but does anyone know a place in Milan that might show the League 1 play offs? Hopefully we won't have to go of course!

bobmunro

ElfsborgAddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

I admire the optimism but looking at Wrexham's form (6 clean sheets in 7) and their next 4 games all being against sides in the bottom 7, i think they'll be promoted before they play us.

I still fancy us to get 3rd though above Wycombe.

ShootersHillGuru said:

Callumcafc said:

Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:

- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts

Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts

Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts

The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the following weekend against Burton. 

Anything is possible of course but if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle. Too many ifs and buts in that scenario for me but I live in hope.

I never said it was likely. In fact I agree with most in that Wrexham have too many “easy” fixtures left to overhaul them now. 

Apparently Burton deserved something at Stockport and maybe going to Wigan won’t be so easy under their new manager. So I have some hope.

We need at least one of them to turn Wrexham over, along with Blackpool at Bloomfield Road. Hopefully Blackpool continue their good form and are still in the playoff hunt by that time.

Ifs, buts and maybe

Wycombe and Wrexham have been up there all season fighting for second (Birmingham were always going to win the league). Up until a month or two ago it looked like Wycombe would nail it but have slipped up a bit and although they could still get second the pressure is on. Based on the run ins Wrexham are probably in the box seat now but the expectation on them with all the Netflix exposure and Hollywood owners brings huge pressure.

Plucky little Charlton were nowhere to be seen three months ago and heading for another mid-table nothing season in this f*cking pub league. We will likely finish fourth or fifth with Stockport vying for those positions as well - and we will likely play them in the play-off semi-final. Much less pressure in the regular season.

Pressure does funny things to outcomes - just saying.

killerandflash

WPAddick said:

Just realised my brother and I will be in Milan for the first leg of play off fixtures. Might be a long shot but does anyone know a place in Milan that might show the League 1 play offs? Hopefully we won't have to go of course!

I assume the game will be on Charlton TV, and being abroad you won't even need a VPN!

masicat

Callumcafc said:

Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:

- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts

Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts

Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts

The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the next weekend against Burton.

And of course we lose to Burton. 

mcgrandall

.

golfaddick

masicat said:

Callumcafc said:

Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:

- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts

Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts

Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts

The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the next weekend against Burton.

And of course we lose to Burton. 

Very Charlton that.

Callumcafc

Both Wrexham and Wycombe’s games at the weekend are 12:30 kick offs.
- Wrexham v Burton
- Reading v Wycombe

We will know both results by kick off at 3pm.

Chris_from_Sidcup

bobmunro said:

ElfsborgAddick said:

Callumcafc said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

I admire the optimism but looking at Wrexham's form (6 clean sheets in 7) and their next 4 games all being against sides in the bottom 7, i think they'll be promoted before they play us.

I still fancy us to get 3rd though above Wycombe.

ShootersHillGuru said:

Callumcafc said:

Here’s a scenario over the next four or five games:

- Charlton beat Lincoln and Northampton at home, drawing with either Mansfield or Cambridge away. +10pts
- Wrexham win two, draw one and lose one of their next four. +7pts
- Wycombe win two, draw one and lose two of their next five. +7pts

Heading into Easter Monday the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Wycombe 81pts
- Charlton 79pts

Wrexham lose at Blackpool & Charlton win at Wycombe & suddenly the table looks like:
- Wrexham 84pts
- Charlton 82pts
- Wycombe 81pts

The following weekend, we’d go to Wrexham knowing a win means automatic promotion is in our own hands the following weekend against Burton. 

Anything is possible of course but if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle. Too many ifs and buts in that scenario for me but I live in hope.

I never said it was likely. In fact I agree with most in that Wrexham have too many “easy” fixtures left to overhaul them now. 

Apparently Burton deserved something at Stockport and maybe going to Wigan won’t be so easy under their new manager. So I have some hope.

We need at least one of them to turn Wrexham over, along with Blackpool at Bloomfield Road. Hopefully Blackpool continue their good form and are still in the playoff hunt by that time.

Ifs, buts and maybe

Wycombe and Wrexham have been up there all season fighting for second (Birmingham were always going to win the league). Up until a month or two ago it looked like Wycombe would nail it but have slipped up a bit and although they could still get second the pressure is on. Based on the run ins Wrexham are probably in the box seat now but the expectation on them with all the Netflix exposure and Hollywood owners brings huge pressure.

Plucky little Charlton were nowhere to be seen three months ago and heading for another mid-table nothing season in this f*cking pub league. We will likely finish fourth or fifth with Stockport vying for those positions as well - and we will likely play them in the play-off semi-final. Much less pressure in the regular season.

Pressure does funny things to outcomes - just saying.

Plucky little Charlton battling it out with the footballing giants of Wycombe and Stockport. 

SouthWest_Addicks

Not sure anyone could have claimed for us to have a minimum of 5th place secured with 6 matches left to go.

Would love to finish 2nd, but still plenty of football to be played for all involved. Stockport still pushing hard to grab that final automatic spot so will need to keep winning matches to get that 2nd play off match atmo.

Hoping by 3PM on Saturday we will have some more positive news with one Wycombe/Wrexham having dropping points in the early matches. 

Chris_from_Sidcup

Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams.
I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th.
If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.

North Lower Neil

2nd is Wrexham's to lose still - easiest run-in, and they're in better form than Wycombe.  Win 3, draw one, lose 2 and they still reach 88 points which we'd need 5 wins and a draw to match.

DyerConsequences

After yesterday's results lowest we can now finish is 11th. 12 points from the final 6 will guarantee a playoff place. Realistically going to be lower than that needed though as Bolton and Reading would have to win all 7 remaining games for us to need that many points.

ForeverAddickted

DyerConsequences said:

After yesterday's results lowest we can now finish is 11th. 12 points from the final 6 will guarantee a playoff place. Realistically going to be lower than that needed though as Bolton and Reading would have to win all 7 remaining games for us to need that many points.

I've got no problem with Bolton and Reading winning their remaining games, provided we do too...

iaitch

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

ForeverAddickted

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They beat Huddersfield 1-0 last night, so fully expect them to continue giving it a go.

bobmunro

ForeverAddickted said:

DyerConsequences said:

After yesterday's results lowest we can now finish is 11th. 12 points from the final 6 will guarantee a playoff place. Realistically going to be lower than that needed though as Bolton and Reading would have to win all 7 remaining games for us to need that many points.

I've got no problem with Bolton and Reading winning their remaining games, provided we do too...

If we win our last six games I believe we will finish second - even then not in our hands but Wrexham, and especially Wycombe, will drop points in addition to the three they each give up to us.

Six Cup Finals to go (and if need be three more).

Valleysarr

WPAddick said:

Just realised my brother and I will be in Milan for the first leg of play off fixtures. Might be a long shot but does anyone know a place in Milan that might show the League 1 play offs? Hopefully we won't have to go of course!

Try the Irish pubs always a good bet in Italy ! 

se9addick

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Personally i think Wrexham will get 2nd unless they have a major meltdown in their next 3 games against the bottom teams.
I can see us and Stockport both overtaking Wycombe and Wycombe then ending up 5th.
If that is the case i think i'd rather finish 4th and play Wycombe who are deflated after a bad run, than finish 3rd and face a side who've potentially squeezed into 6th on the last day after a good run of form like Blackpool.

There are scenarios where you might think, on paper, it’s better to come fourth than third. But in reality we have to try and win every match - if we succeed in doing so and that means a slightly tougher semi-final draw then so be it.

cafcnick1992

ForeverAddickted said:

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They beat Huddersfield 1-0 last night, so fully expect them to continue giving it a go.

I no longer consider beating Huddersfield an achievement in any degree.

ForeverAddickted

cafcnick1992 said:

ForeverAddickted said:

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They beat Huddersfield 1-0 last night, so fully expect them to continue giving it a go.

I no longer consider beating Huddersfield an achievement in any degree.

Yeah its a shame that Wycombe's game in hand (next Tuesday) is against them

I've got no faith in Huddersfield showing up, especially as they've got a dreadful home record in 2025

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They can't catch us but mathematically they can still catch 6th place, I guess we'll get their last hurrah.

Addick Addict

To utilise Oohaah's well-worn methodology

Automatic - 9%
Playoffs - 90%
Outside top six - 1%

Callumcafc

Callumcafc said:

oohaahmortimer said:

So,our chances of top 6 went from 93% to 89% according to OPTA

To steal your format, it went from

Top two 10%
3rd-6th 85%
7th-12th 5%

To

Top two 3%
3rd-6th 86%
7th-12th 11%

To

Top two 5%
3rd-6th 93.5%

7th-12th 1.5%

last night

DyerConsequences

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They can't catch us but mathematically they can still catch 6th place, I guess we'll get their last hurrah.

Given their remaining 6 games, mathematically is probably the only hope they have.

They still have us, Bolton, Reading, Stockport and Wrexham to play.

And Apples Shrews.

Chizz

WPAddick said:

Just realised my brother and I will be in Milan for the first leg of play off fixtures. Might be a long shot but does anyone know a place in Milan that might show the League 1 play offs? Hopefully we won't have to go of course!

• The English Football Pub – Via Valpetrosa, 5 - Facebook: @TheFootballEnglishPubMilan Phone: +39 02 864464​ - Known for showing UK football. If there’s a request and it’s not clashing with a big Italian match, they might show it. Worth calling ahead.

• The Football English Pub Milan – Via Torino area - Different from the one above despite the similar name! Often caters to Premier League fans. https://thebestrent.it/en/by-night/the-football-english-pub-di-milano/ 

• Offside Sports Pub – Via Losanna, 46 Facebook: @offsidesportspub Phone: +39 02 3943 1455​ Big screens, lots of sports and open to requests if it’s available on the service they use (like Sky or DAZN).

• Pogue Mahone's – Via Salmini, 1 Facebook: @veryirishpub - Phone: +39 02 5830 9726​ Irish pub that sometimes shows Championship and lower league fixtures if someone asks in advance.  

Note:​ As of now, there are no Serie A or Coppa Italia matches scheduled for Saturday, 10 May 2025 - AC Milan are playing Bologna at home on 11 May; Inter are away to Torino on 11 May. The Coppa Italia final is set for Wednesday, 14 May 2025, at Stadio Olimpico in Rome. ​ Regarding European competitions, the UEFA Champions League semi-finals are scheduled for late April and early May 2025, with the final set for Saturday, 31 May 2025, at the Munich Football Arena. ​Therefore, on 10 May 2025, there are no major Italian or European football fixtures planned.​ 

shine166

My VG membership arrived through the post today, officially Playoffs ready.

RaplhMilne

We are 1/100 odds on with bookies to be in playoffs…….

AndyG

RaplhMilne said:

We are 1/100 odds on with bookies to be in playoffs…….

I think that’s generous tbh not a chance we don’t make playoffs now

Danepak

ForeverAddickted said:

iaitch said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

Lincoln in 12th become the first team in the top half who can't mathematically catch us.

So will they be on the beach come Saturday or will they think they might as well give it a go?

They beat Huddersfield 1-0 last night, so fully expect them to continue giving it a go.

Lincoln has only lost 4 games all season by more than one goal.

Oct - Home to Birmingham (1-3)

Oct - Away to Crawley (0-3)

Dec - Away to Bolton (0-3)

Jan - Home to Blackpool (0-2)

Won't be an easy game at The Valley this weekend for us.

ElfsborgAddick

WPAddick said:

Just realised my brother and I will be in Milan for the first leg of play off fixtures. Might be a long shot but does anyone know a place in Milan that might show the League 1 play offs? Hopefully we won't have to go of course!

Find an Irish bar which has the football on and I imagine you will be in luck.

Btw, Milan produce fantastic hot chocolate, try a cup.