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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,593
    Looking at our remaining fixtures and none are easy. Northampton scored 4 away today, Cambridve unbeaten in four under Harris, Burton making a right fist of it. Then add in Wrexham and Wycombe away.

    It would be nice to manage the squad so everyone is fit and raring to go for the play offs but we need to ensure we actually get in them first. And go into them with some momentum behind us.

    Things will look a little clearer once everyone has played their game in hand this Tuesday 
  • Holdkneebomb
    Holdkneebomb Posts: 1,264
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Stockport v Wycombe last game of the season could make it interesting
  • cantersaddick
    cantersaddick Posts: 16,946
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,733
    If I could pick a team to play in the first round of the play offs it would be Wycombe. 
  • Croydon
    Croydon Posts: 12,736
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Said the exact same thing at the ground today. Much rather play them on a wide pitch in a one off game than have to go back to their place. 
  • Rothko
    Rothko Posts: 18,812
    Yeah, get Wycombe in the playoffs, and then Stockport on the expenses of Wembley 
  • charlton_hero
    charlton_hero Posts: 4,668
    edited April 5
    I don't think we have enough about us to go up this year imo. I had a quiet confidence in the Bowyer season that I don't have this time around. Just a gut feeling, I hope I'm wrong. It's been a largely enjoyable season though, and it's been a step up on the last, whatever happens.
  • ElfsborgAddick
    ElfsborgAddick Posts: 29,089
    Rothko said:
    Yeah, get Wycombe in the playoffs, and then Stockport on the expenses of Wembley 
    Wycombe will fold in the semis whoever they play.
  • cafc_se7
    cafc_se7 Posts: 2,277
    Such a strange league, I still think we can catch Wrexham and I still think we can drop out of the playoffs altogether. There are still plenty of twists and turns! 

    More then ever now though, we will need to beat both Wycombe and Wrexham to have any chance! 

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  • MrLargo
    MrLargo Posts: 7,991
    ElfsborgAddick said:
    Rothko said:
    Yeah, get Wycombe in the playoffs, and then Stockport on the expenses of Wembley 
    Wycombe will fold in the semis whoever they play.
    Yep. Very difficult to raise yourself again when you've been fighting for second all season. Think they'll go into the play offs with a feeling of failure.
  • ElfsborgAddick
    ElfsborgAddick Posts: 29,089
    MrLargo said:
    ElfsborgAddick said:
    Rothko said:
    Yeah, get Wycombe in the playoffs, and then Stockport on the expenses of Wembley 
    Wycombe will fold in the semis whoever they play.
    Yep. Very difficult to raise yourself again when you've been fighting for second all season. Think they'll go into the play offs with a feeling of failure.
    100%
    I'd stretch that to the taffs although it is unlikely they'll not go up automatically.
  • ForestHillAddick
    ForestHillAddick Posts: 101
    I would say we're too far away from automatics now yes.

    But all this chat of home Vs away second leg, which teams we'd rather avoid etc seems pointless.

    We can beat any team in this division home or away on our day. We just have to keep momentum from here to the end of the season.
  • DyerConsequences
    DyerConsequences Posts: 2,630
    After today's results the lowest we can now finish is 10th (was 11th before kick off).

    Points needed to guarantee we finish above the teams below:
    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 10
    Reading - 11
    Bolton - 12
  • Uboat
    Uboat Posts: 12,199
    Great day for Wrexham. They’re up, surely. I agree with the consensus on here. If it’s us and Wycombe in 4th/5th I’d be very confident and I don’t think they would be. If Stockport finish 3rd I think they’ll potentially have a tougher game against Reading or Bolton. 
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,307
    edited April 5
    8 points plus a huge goal difference with 6 matches to play looks a very healthy gap.

    Reading’s fixture list doesn’t look the most challenging, but reckon we probably need 3 points at the very most from our remaining matches to guarantee top 6. Imagine we will have it mathematically tied up after the Northampton match. 
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,052
    cafc_se7 said:
    Such a strange league, I still think we can catch Wrexham and I still think we can drop out of the playoffs altogether. There are still plenty of twists and turns! 

    More then ever now though, we will need to beat both Wycombe and Wrexham to have any chance! 
    Neither of those things will happen. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,786
    edited April 5
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    oohaahmortimer said:
    So,our chances of top 6 went from 93% to 89% according to OPTA
    To steal your format, it went from

    Top two 10%
    3rd-6th 85%
    7th-12th 5%

    To

    Top two 3%
    3rd-6th 86%
    7th-12th 11%
    To

    Top two 5%
    3rd-6th 93.5%
    7th-12th 1.5%

    last night
    Post Lincoln (H), Opta’s calculator says

    Top two 2.5%
    Playoffs 95%
    Out altogether 2.5%
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,786
    edited April 5
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    Callumcafc said:
    oohaahmortimer said:
    So,our chances of top 6 went from 93% to 89% according to OPTA
    To steal your format, it went from

    Top two 10%
    3rd-6th 85%
    7th-12th 5%

    To

    Top two 3%
    3rd-6th 86%
    7th-12th 11%
    To

    Top two 5%
    3rd-6th 93.5%
    7th-12th 1.5%

    last night
    Post Lincoln (H), Opta’s calculator says

    Top two 2.5%
    Playoffs 95%
    Out altogether 2.5%

    Top two
    Birmingham 100%
    Wrexham 76%
    Wycombe 18.5%
    Stockport 3%
    Charlton 2.5%

    Playoffs
    Wrexham 24%
    Wycombe 81.5%
    Stockport 95%
    Charlton 95%
    Bolton 42.5%
    Reading 38.5%
    Huddersfield 20.5%
    Orient 2.5%
    Blackpool 0.5%
  • Croydon
    Croydon Posts: 12,736
    ForestHillAddick said:
    I would say we're too far away from automatics now yes.

    But all this chat of home Vs away second leg, which teams we'd rather avoid etc seems pointless.

    We can beat any team in this division home or away on our day. We just have to keep momentum from here to the end of the season.
    Would love to agree with this sentiment but I just don't have the same level of confidence. 



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  • stoneroses19
    stoneroses19 Posts: 7,223
    charlton_hero said:
    I don't think we have enough about us to go up this year imo. I had a quiet confidence in the Bowyer season that I don't have this time around. Just a gut feeling, I hope I'm wrong. It's been a largely enjoyable season though, and it's been a step up on the last, whatever happens.
    I love that football is so much about opinions. I'm more confident of this side going up in the play offs than I was with the Bowyer side at the time (especially the final, as was certain Sunderland would get there long-waited revenge for 98). 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,298
    Today showed if we aren’t at it then we are quite easy to score against. 

    2 wins from the remaining 6 would get us secured I think. I predict them coming from Northampton home 
    Wycombe away 

    Midweek games this week will be interesting could do with Bolton and Wycombe dropping points. 
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,034
    cantersaddick said:
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
    I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.

    Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.

    The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed. 
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,925
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    cantersaddick said:
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
    I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.

    Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.

    The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed. 
    After Tuesday we could be 5 ahead with 5 games remaining. As it stands we need 10 points for anything to be guaranteed.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,034
    shine166 said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    cantersaddick said:
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
    I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.

    Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.

    The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed. 
    After Tuesday we could be 5 ahead with 5 games remaining. As it stands we need 10 points for anything to be guaranteed.
    I said 'pretty much' guaranteed, not mathematically.

    If we win the next 2 that takes us to 79 points and we have a much better goal difference than Bolton and Reading. Bolton would need 4 wins and 2 draws to overtake us, Reading would need 5 wins. And this isn't even taking into account the points we might get from our last 3 games.

    Plus 4 of Reading's last 6 games are away, and their away record is terrible (4 wins all season).
  • DOUCHER
    DOUCHER Posts: 7,908
    edited April 6
    Nobody seems interested in the fact stockports captain is out injured for the season - i think this is crucial because to me, a stockport away fixture in the semis is where we could quite easily lose the play offs. Their pitch and style doesn't suit us and i know they won yesterday but if their main string puller is missing, that will tell in the play offs   
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,925
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    shine166 said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    cantersaddick said:
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
    I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.

    Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.

    The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed. 
    After Tuesday we could be 5 ahead with 5 games remaining. As it stands we need 10 points for anything to be guaranteed.
    I said 'pretty much' guaranteed, not mathematically.

    If we win the next 2 that takes us to 79 points and we have a much better goal difference than Bolton and Reading. Bolton would need 4 wins and 2 draws to overtake us, Reading would need 5 wins. And this isn't even taking into account the points we might get from our last 3 games.

    Plus 4 of Reading's last 6 games are away, and their away record is terrible (4 wins all season).
    Fair enough, although winning 3 of the 5 is pretty much guaranteed but still not. 
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,455
    DOUCHER said:
    Nobody seems interested in the fact stockports captain is out injured for the season - i think this is crucial because to me, a stockport away fixture in the semis is where we could quite easily lose the play offs. Their pitch and style doesn't suit us and i know they won yesterday but if their main string puller is missing, that will tell in the play offs   
    Lewis Bate is that? - Makes sense how you knew about it beforehand, as you've got a bit of an inside track on him havent you?
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,034
    DOUCHER said:
    Nobody seems interested in the fact stockports captain is out injured for the season - i think this is crucial because to me, a stockport away fixture in the semis is where we could quite easily lose the play offs. Their pitch and style doesn't suit us and i know they won yesterday but if their main string puller is missing, that will tell in the play offs   
    I'm not falling into that trap with Stockport again. Most people (myself included) thought they would fall away once Louie Barry was recalled from his loan and yet here they are.

    As you say they won comfortably away without Bate yesterday, and whilst it's obviously a blow to lose him, i think Challinor is a very good manager and he'll find a way for them to cope without him.
  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 9,753
    We will lose to Stockport on penalties.  That’s my prediction.

    We may lose a player or two over the summer but as long as we have a list of 7-8 players as good as the 2024 summer signings to strengthen the squad to seriously be top two next season then I’m happy with that

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