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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday
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The top 3 is too close to call yet. Auto is Wrexham's to bottle. Stockport are finding form. Wycombe are slumping.cantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
Important we remain consistent till the end now. Don't concede silly goals and focus on our game.
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Lots of football still to be played. Autos have gone, but we have to fight for that third place spot.4
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Opta reckons level points with Stockport0
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Playing Wycombe in the semis would be ideal, they are falling off and on a downward trajectory heading into the play offs having ballsed up automatic promotion so badly. I am more confident in beating Stockport at Wembley than I am in a 2 leg tie with a tricky away fixture. Wycombe semis, Stockport/6th in the final17
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I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.4 -
That's about where I am with it too. Stockport take 3rd, us 4th, Wycombe 5th.NabySarr said:Playing Wycombe in the semis would be ideal, they are falling off and on a downward trajectory heading into the play offs having ballsed up automatic promotion so badly. I am more confident in beating Stockport at Wembley than I am in a 2 leg tie with a tricky away fixture. Wycombe semis, Stockport/6th in the finalConfident we have the better of Wycombe over two games at this stage, especially if we manage to grab second leg at home.2 -
Have to get that 2nd leg at home. I can see us beating anyone at the Valley, but away from home we've looked vulnerable in spells and I don't fancy us to hold on to a slender 1-0 first leg lead away at Wycombe or Stockport.
Id also fancy us to win at Wembley with the larger pitch and 35K+ Addicks cheering us on.4 -
Still plenty of twists and turns yet. I’d be stunned if Stockport win all five of their remaining games.2
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Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistakecantersaddick said:
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.
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Away from home there has been some fragility. Mansfield scored against us and could have had another before HT, Stockport away we did well to keep a clean sheet and they were dominant for long spells, so could have conceded there. P'boro stuck 3 past us and Rotherham 4, so it's a big contrast to our home form.NabySarr said:
Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistakecantersaddick said:
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.4 -
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If we are to assume that automatic promotion for us is gone then i think almost every Charlton fan would take that.stoneroses19 said:
That's about where I am with it too. Stockport take 3rd, us 4th, Wycombe 5th.NabySarr said:Playing Wycombe in the semis would be ideal, they are falling off and on a downward trajectory heading into the play offs having ballsed up automatic promotion so badly. I am more confident in beating Stockport at Wembley than I am in a 2 leg tie with a tricky away fixture. Wycombe semis, Stockport/6th in the finalConfident we have the better of Wycombe over two games at this stage, especially if we manage to grab second leg at home.3 -
If avoiding Stockport in a semi final is the important detail, then catching Wycombe would help massively with that.
The only way we would finish above Wycombe and then play Stockport over two legs is if we finished 3rd and Stockport went massively off the boil and finished 6th.2 -
You can interpret those stats multiple ways. For me based on what I saw on the day they didnt have many clear cut changes but when they came at us we rather fell apart (a collective shitting themselves from the back line), we were disorganised and were opened up much more easily than we have been over recent months. Mistakes creeping in are exactly part of that.NabySarr said:
Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistakecantersaddick said:
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.1 -
Stockport (3rd) v Bolton (6th)
Charlton (4th) v Wycombe (5th)
is my guess at the moment.
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Will a big pitch help us with our play style? We seem to rely on a long ball / high press play style which a smaller pitch will help for running distances. If we were to play a more expansive passing game I would agree with you about the pitch size but we generally have less possession so a bigger pitch could become an issue. The big pitch will help Small and TC to isolate their defenders and cause some havoc, but our press could be bypassed a bit more easilyCAFCTrev said:Have to get that 2nd leg at home. I can see us beating anyone at the Valley, but away from home we've looked vulnerable in spells and I don't fancy us to hold on to a slender 1-0 first leg lead away at Wycombe or Stockport.
Id also fancy us to win at Wembley with the larger pitch and 35K+ Addicks cheering us on.
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I might be wrong but the valley is a bigger pitch than most right? We are a lot better there than away from home.Chrispy51 said:
Will a big pitch help us with our play style? We seem to rely on a long ball / high press play style which a smaller pitch will help for running distances. If we were to play a more expansive passing game I would agree with you about the pitch size but we generally have less possession so a bigger pitch could become an issue. The big pitch will help Small and TC to isolate their defenders and cause some havoc, but our press could be bypassed a bit more easilyCAFCTrev said:Have to get that 2nd leg at home. I can see us beating anyone at the Valley, but away from home we've looked vulnerable in spells and I don't fancy us to hold on to a slender 1-0 first leg lead away at Wycombe or Stockport.
Id also fancy us to win at Wembley with the larger pitch and 35K+ Addicks cheering us on.I think the comments are more about playing Stockport specifically where a big pitch would help us, as in the away game we really struggled to get Small and TC in the game. Against a footballing side like maybe a Reading the big pitch would probably help their style more than ours2 -
Percentage chance of going up (assuming playoffs are a random chance 1 in 4)
Birmingham 100%
Wrexham 82%
Wycombe 38.6%
Stockport 26.8%
Charlton 26.4%
Bolton 10.6%
Reading 9.7%
Huddersfield 5.1%
Orient 0.7%
Blackpool 0.1%1 -
Definitely make the playoffs,but can we win at Wembley0
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Is TC out longer than a ‘tight calf muscle’?
If his injury is more serious than has so far been explained then we’re in trouble imo.
We’ll make the play offs but our momentum will be stuffed without him in the side.He's not only a threat on the left but he totally changes the way the rest of the team plays. Crucial to get him back.2 -
Does Xg explain whether the 97 failure to score ..whats % due to missing the goal what's % goalkeeper saving it?NabySarr said:
Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistakecantersaddick said:
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.1 -
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It was posted on here yesterday that he is back in training.Valley11 said:Is TC out longer than a ‘tight calf muscle’?
If his injury is more serious than has so far been explained then we’re in trouble imo.
We’ll make the play offs but our momentum will be stuffed without him in the side.He's not only a threat on the left but he totally changes the way the rest of the team plays. Crucial to get him back.11 -
I missed that. Great news.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
It was posted on here yesterday that he is back in training.Valley11 said:Is TC out longer than a ‘tight calf muscle’?
If his injury is more serious than has so far been explained then we’re in trouble imo.
We’ll make the play offs but our momentum will be stuffed without him in the side.He's not only a threat on the left but he totally changes the way the rest of the team plays. Crucial to get him back.8 -
Righto, not sure that's a valid assumption0
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It's all a load of cobblers.KingKinsella said:
Does Xg explain whether the 97 failure to score ..whats % due to missing the goal what's % goalkeeper saving it?NabySarr said:
Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistakecantersaddick said:
I wouldn't say panic but nerves.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.cantersaddick said:
Agreed.killerandflash said:
Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semicantersaddick said:Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances.
We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.
The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed.
As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous. Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.2 -
Can’t afford to slip up v Cambridge or Northampton. At least four points as a minimum. I can see two losses against Wycombe and Wrexham so we need to be looking for seven in the other three games. I wouldn’t want to go into the Burton game needing to win.9
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Golfie, is that you?ShootersHillGuru said:Can’t afford to slip up v Cambridge or Northampton. At least four points as a minimum. I can see two losses against Wycombe and Wrexham so we need to be looking for seven in the other three games. I wouldn’t want to go into the Burton game needing to win.9 -
I think we can beat either Wrexham and Wycombe - highly unlikely we'll win both though.ShootersHillGuru said:Can’t afford to slip up v Cambridge or Northampton. At least four points as a minimum. I can see two losses against Wycombe and Wrexham so we need to be looking for seven in the other three games. I wouldn’t want to go into the Burton game needing to win.0 -
I could be wrong and Bolton, Reading and Huddersfield all win their last six games and that makes Northampton, Cambridge and Burton must win games.
But I can’t see it.
I am quite confident that the division is going to land at about 75 points required for top six again this year, despite months of everyone saying it was going to be higher. It never (usually) is.5 -
Bolton have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.8 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 75-77 points.
Reading have two home games and four away games left. Their home & away PPG (2.19 and 1.0) suggests they will likely end the season on 72-74 points.
Huddersfield have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.7 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 73-75 points.6 -
I agree and don't think we really need to concern ourselves with the chasing pack, unless we fall apart and only manage to pick up 1 point from the next 2 games in which case this forum will go into meltdown ahead of Wycombe and Wrexham.Callumcafc said:I could be wrong and Bolton, Reading and Huddersfield all win their last six games and that makes Northampton, Cambridge and Burton must win games.
But I can’t see it.
I am quite confident that the division is going to land at about 75 points required for top six again this year, despite months of everyone saying it was going to be higher. It never (usually) is.
I am more concerned with looking up at Wycombe and Stockport as we need to finish above 1 of them and finish top 4.1
