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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Can’t afford to slip up v Cambridge or Northampton. At least four points as a minimum. I can see two losses against Wycombe and Wrexham so we need to be looking for seven in the other three games. I wouldn’t want to go into the Burton game needing to win. 
    Golfie, is that you?
    No......only because I think we'll slip up against Cambridge and probably Burton !
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    Callumcafc said:
    Bolton have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.8 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 75-77 points.

    Reading have two home games and four away games left. Their home & away PPG (2.19 and 1.0) suggests they will likely end the season on 72-74 points.

    Huddersfield have three home games and three away games left. Their home & away PPG (1.7 and 1.5) suggests they will likely end the season on 73-75 points.
    So we need 78 points to be totally safe. I'd want 80-82 to make sure we get 3rd or 4th. 2 wins & 2 draws should do. 
  • Valley11
    Valley11 Posts: 12,001
    If Jones and TC are back and no one else gets injured I fancy us to get promoted. Whether in 2nd place or play off winners. 
    There’s something about this team with them in it. 
  • DyerConsequences
    DyerConsequences Posts: 2,629
    DyerConsequences said:
    After today's results the lowest we can now finish is 10th (was 11th before kick off).

    Points needed to guarantee we finish above the teams below:
    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 10
    Reading - 11
    Bolton - 12
    Updated:

    We can still finish 10th. However points now updated on what we need to guarantee finishing above the teams below:

    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 7
    Bolton - 9
    Reading - 11

    So 9 points at most will guarantee a playoff place.
  • Stuart_Learys_Boots
    Stuart_Learys_Boots Posts: 91
    goal difference I believe makes it 8 over Bolton
  • Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch
    Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch Posts: 1,789
    After tonight's results, and looking at Reading's favourable run in, the current top 6 look to me to be the final top 6.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,786
    Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:
    After tonight's results, and looking at Reading's favourable run in, the current top 6 look to me to be the final top 6.
    They won away tonight but across the season their results away from home have been patchy at best. Don't think it's sewn up by any means.
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,282
    edited April 8
    All with 5 games to go..  Home games in bold.

    Wrexham fixtures. 81 points.   GD 27
    Wigan
    Bristol Rovers
    Blackpool
    Charlton
    Lincoln

    Wycombe fixtures. 78 points.   GD 29
    Stevenage
    Bolton
    Charlton
    Orient
    Stockport

    Stockport fixtures. 74 points.     GD 24
    Rotherham
    Peterborough
    Huddersfield
    Lincoln
    Wycombe

    Charlton fixtures. 73 points.      GD 19
    Cambridge
    Northampton
    Wycombe
    Wrexham
    Burton

    Reading fixtures. 68 points        GD 8
    Northampton
    Lincoln
    Mansfield
    Rovers
    Barnsley

    Bolton fixtures. 66 points.           GD 4
    Barnsley
    Wycombe
    Lincoln
    Peterborough
    Stevenage

    Huddersfield fixtures. 64 points.   GD 14
    Burton
    Cambridge
    Stockport
    Exeter
    Orient

  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,282
    Get Campbell and Jones back and everyone else is fit and we can look upwards, if we don't there could still be some nervous looking behind.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,786
    Ideally we are in a situation by the Burton game where, because Wycombe and Stockport are playing each other, we can guarantee a 2nd leg at home by winning.

    One, if not both of those, will be dropping points that day. I hope we are in a position to take advantage of that.

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  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,282
    Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,643
    Athletico Charlton said:
    Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
    This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.

    You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,593
    Wycombe are catchable, two tough away games and two tough home games.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,957
    DyerConsequences said:
    DyerConsequences said:
    After today's results the lowest we can now finish is 10th (was 11th before kick off).

    Points needed to guarantee we finish above the teams below:
    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 10
    Reading - 11
    Bolton - 12
    Updated:

    We can still finish 10th. However points now updated on what we need to guarantee finishing above the teams below:

    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 7
    Bolton - 9
    Reading - 11

    So 9 points at most will guarantee a playoff place.
    Assuming each of those teams win all 5 of their remaining games (!)   

    The more likely outcome is that we need to win 2 more games out of our remaining 5 to guarantee a playoff position after 46 games.     
     
                           
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,957
    Callumcafc said:
    Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:
    After tonight's results, and looking at Reading's favourable run in, the current top 6 look to me to be the final top 6.
    They won away tonight but across the season their results away from home have been patchy at best. Don't think it's sewn up by any means.
    Reading will need shooting if they don't pick up 3 wins from 5.
    Looking at my crystal balls, I think they will  :) 
     
    Unless Charlton collapse completely, I feel Bolton are the only team in a position to realistically pip us to the post - but their fixture list is not the easiest.
    The best thing is ..... right now qualifying for the playoffs is in our own hands. 
     

  • DyerConsequences
    DyerConsequences Posts: 2,629
    Oggy Red said:
    DyerConsequences said:
    DyerConsequences said:
    After today's results the lowest we can now finish is 10th (was 11th before kick off).

    Points needed to guarantee we finish above the teams below:
    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 10
    Reading - 11
    Bolton - 12
    Updated:

    We can still finish 10th. However points now updated on what we need to guarantee finishing above the teams below:

    Blackpool - 3
    Orient - 6
    Huddersfield - 7
    Bolton - 9
    Reading - 11

    So 9 points at most will guarantee a playoff place.
    Assuming each of those teams win all 5 of their remaining games (!)   

    The more likely outcome is that we need to win 2 more games out of our remaining 5 to guarantee a playoff position after 46 games.     
     
                           
    Yes it is based on each of them winning all remaining games. It's not a prediction, it's just a mathematical equation for what we currently need. Like yesterday, some of those teams will drop points, and as also pointed out by another poster realistically 8 points would probably be enough to finish above Bolton even if they did win all 5, due to our much better goal difference.
  • guinnessaddick
    guinnessaddick Posts: 28,657
    golfaddick said:
    Athletico Charlton said:
    Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
    This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.

    You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
    Remember when they gave the Wendys a get out jail card.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,033
    golfaddick said:
    Athletico Charlton said:
    Be great to get 3rd so we get a bye to the final when Reading arn't allow to join in.
    This is the thing. If the EFL dont sort it out before the end of the season then there is no way the EFL will pull the plug then. They will let it run as long as possible hoping against hope Reading dont win the play offs.

    You see it all the time. Fudge after fudge. Delay after delay. Sitting on their hands as deadline after deadline pass or kicking the can down the road hoping something happens before they have to make a final decision.......sometime in June !
    I've said on the Reading thread that i think they'll keep getting extensions up until the EFL have their AGM in early June. You're right that it's incredibly unlikely they'll kick them out or ban them from the play offs. 

    If it isn't sorted by the AGM though then they'll have to do something. 
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,733
    edited April 9
    I'll be disapointed if we scrape through and if we did, that would be an issue for the play offs but I still think 76/77 points will be enough to get in there. 
  • cafcsinger
    cafcsinger Posts: 5,549
    Bolton losing at home last night was excellent for us. There's more of a cushion to 7th and realistically we only need another 4/5 points or so to finish in the play offs. Obviously we want more than that to go with momentum and have a second leg at home etc. Also want to avoid Bolton in the top 6 (they had 35 shots last night!), think that would be a difficult game. 

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  • Uboat
    Uboat Posts: 12,199
    Will there come a point where Nathan starts resting players for the semi finals or will he just keep pushing?
  • PrincessFiona
    PrincessFiona Posts: 5,461
    NabySarr said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    cantersaddick said:
    killerandflash said:
    cantersaddick said:
    Think Stockport will get 3rd now and us and Wycombe will be 4th/5th.
    Which might be a benefit for us. I'd rather face Stockport at Wembley than in a 2 legged semi 
    Agreed. 

    I am a little nervous now though. Our away form had been patchy and unconvincing even since our turnaround. Lots of scraped wins and unconvincing performances. 

    We kept going even with a few injuries, now they seem to be catching up with us and we just don't have the depth left in key positions. Still confident we will get in the playoffs but not confident we will be in form going into them.
    I'm not sure where this panic is coming from? We've lost 3 of our last 24 league games and 1 of those was away at Birmingham who beat everyone. In the form table over the last 10, 15, 20, 25 games we're second in all to Birmingham.

    Despite not winning yesterday, we did well to battle back from 2 down and probably should've won it, and we were missing 2-3 of our best players. Lincoln are not a bad side either, they only lost narrowly 1-0 away at Wycombe and Birmingham in the last month.

    The next 2 games are winnable and if we win both then the play offs will be pretty much guaranteed. 
    I wouldn't say panic but nerves. 

    As I said away form has been patchy at best even throughout this great run. Lots of unconvincing results in there. Injuries to key players is making us look a little more fragile and  leading to being unable to rotate or pick based on conditions/opposition makes us more likely to pick up more injuries. Defensive fragility was there on Saturday that we haven't seen for a while. If Jones and TC are back on Saturday that will be a boost but until we hear more about that I'm nervous.  Our home form should be enough to see us over the line even if we do rather limp there in the worst case scenario. 2 weeks ago I was confident of 3rd. Now I think 4th with Stockport ahead of us.
    Was there really defensive fragility? I’d describe that as a team that gets opened up easily and conceding lots of chances. Lincoln had 4 shots, first goal was a very good header that 9 times out of 10 doesn’t go in (or according to the xG 97 times out of 100). Second goal was down to an individual mistake 


    Plus the Peterborough game. After the Huddersfield game I was less concerned, then Mansfield and Lincoln were hard fought - which is good in a way but not convincing
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,444
    edited April 9
    Got to keep pushing you'd hope... Never forgotten the Rochdale performance at the end of 2017/18, and we went into the Play-Offs on the back of a poor result and never looked up for it. I'm still half expecting this to be a similar Play-Off campaign with next year being the season we actually get promoted.

    Would be quite ironic if that happened as would be a carbon copy of Jones' first time at Luton Manager

    Season One: Avoided Relegation, finished mid-table
    Season Two: Lost the Play-Off Semi-Finals (to Blackpool)
    Season Three: P2 in League Two
    Season Four: P1 in League One
  • PrincessFiona
    PrincessFiona Posts: 5,461
    North Lower Neil said:
    Stockport (3rd) v Bolton (6th)
    Charlton (4th) v Wycombe (5th)

    is my guess at the moment.
    who gets the away leg first and home second?
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,184
    PrincessFiona said:
    North Lower Neil said:
    Stockport (3rd) v Bolton (6th)
    Charlton (4th) v Wycombe (5th)

    is my guess at the moment.
    who gets the away leg first and home second?
    3rd & 4th get the home leg second
  • SantaClaus
    SantaClaus Posts: 7,658
    Uboat said:
    Will there come a point where Nathan starts resting players for the semi finals or will he just keep pushing?
    When the automatic spot is definitively gone and our place in the playoffs is secure. At that point it's a toss up between resting key players who are managing injuries or going flat out for a home second leg and crossing our fingers over form and fitness come the big games. I hope Jones chooses the first option.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,786
    There’s only two grounds I really wouldn’t want to visit in a playoff semi final: Reading and Stockport.

    Everyone else, I am confident in our ability to grind out a draw or better and then beat them at the Valley. Those two grounds would be touch & go, most likely requiring a win at the Valley to get to Wembley.

    Home form table:


  • stoneroses19
    stoneroses19 Posts: 7,223
    I don't see us falling flat or taking it easy once we confirm play offs, that's going off Jones passive comments after Lincoln. 

    He will want to finish strong, grabbing 3rd or 4th, and having confident momentum going in to the play offs. 

    There might be some resting players, whether that's full games, or making early subs, but no more than that, in my opinion. 
  • redman
    redman Posts: 5,286
    Some people on here seem scared of playing Stockport in the semis. I just don't get that at all. Any game will be tough. They are rarely easy. And all this talk of Wycombe crumbling isn't borne out either, although they are not on the same form as Wrexham certainly. 
  • Elthamaddick
    Elthamaddick Posts: 15,819
    North Lower Neil said:
    Stockport (3rd) v Bolton (6th)
    Charlton (4th) v Wycombe (5th)

    is my guess at the moment.
    I'd take that now

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