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The playoff race

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  • addick05
    addick05 Posts: 2,348
    Also pleased Rovers won. However, I have a sneaking feeling that a draw is on the cards Saturday so it could all come down to Rochdale. Squeaky bum time I fear.
  • moutuakilla
    moutuakilla Posts: 7,568
    edited April 2018
    Covered End said:

    moutuakilla said:

    Didn't realise Scunthorpe had only won one (Walsall) since February

    They beat us last week !
    image
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,849
    It's a bit sad, but also positive, that Jacko's retirement as a player will have to be forgotten about, we've got no "dead" games left where he can be brought on for 5 minutes of adulation.

    And he's number 2 now, his focus will have to be purely on helping Bowyer with the management of the team.
  • thai malaysia addick
    thai malaysia addick Posts: 18,336
    killerandflash said:

    It's a bit sad, but also positive, that Jacko's retirement as a player will have to be forgotten about, we've got no "dead" games left where he can be brought on for 5 minutes of adulation.

    And he's number 2 now, his focus will have to be purely on helping Bowyer with the management of the team.

    Of course we have. Jacko can come on when we are beating Shrewsbury 5-0 in the play off final
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,628
    Rizzo said:

    golfaddick said:

    Rizzo said:

    Can't believe how tight it is for the play-off places this season. We've got basically 6 teams (mathematically, Bradford can still do it) still playing for the final 2 play-off spots. Very exciting but I'd rather be in Wigan or Blackburn's shoes right now!

    Perhaps you haven't been paying attention. Wigan are already up & Blackburn are almost there too. This is the play-off thread btw. Shrews & Rotherham hcve got 3rd & 4th respectively and so there are just 3 teams vying for 2 places. Pompey & Peterborough can't get enough points & Bradford were out of it weeks ago.
    Maths not a strong suit for you golfie? Or English for that matter? I didn't say that Wigan or Blackburn were involved in the play-offs, I said that I'd rather be in their shoes. I also implicitly stated that Shrewsbury and Rotherham are home and dry as I referred to the final 2 play-off spots. The next 6 teams in the league (excluding Blackpool) can all mathematically make it to the play-offs. Clear?
    Yes, but this thread is about the play-offs (the title gives it away) so mentioning Blackburn & Wigan is irrelevant.

    I maintain that the final 2 play-off places are between us, Plymouth & Scunny. Other teams can get to 69 or 70 points, but imo that wont be enough.
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    golfaddick said:

    Rizzo said:

    golfaddick said:

    Rizzo said:

    Can't believe how tight it is for the play-off places this season. We've got basically 6 teams (mathematically, Bradford can still do it) still playing for the final 2 play-off spots. Very exciting but I'd rather be in Wigan or Blackburn's shoes right now!

    Perhaps you haven't been paying attention. Wigan are already up & Blackburn are almost there too. This is the play-off thread btw. Shrews & Rotherham hcve got 3rd & 4th respectively and so there are just 3 teams vying for 2 places. Pompey & Peterborough can't get enough points & Bradford were out of it weeks ago.
    Maths not a strong suit for you golfie? Or English for that matter? I didn't say that Wigan or Blackburn were involved in the play-offs, I said that I'd rather be in their shoes. I also implicitly stated that Shrewsbury and Rotherham are home and dry as I referred to the final 2 play-off spots. The next 6 teams in the league (excluding Blackpool) can all mathematically make it to the play-offs. Clear?
    Yes, but this thread is about the play-offs (the title gives it away) so mentioning Blackburn & Wigan is irrelevant.

    I maintain that the final 2 play-off places are between us, Plymouth & Scunny. Other teams can get to 69 or 70 points, but imo that wont be enough.
    If we get 4 points we will be there 100% , probably in 6th. If Plymouth don't beat Rotherham at the weekend it will be tough for them to overhaul us.
  • Southbank
    Southbank Posts: 5,252
    el-pietro said:

    I think I'm right in saying its in our hands now? Win both games and we make the playoffs. They both have a game in hand but its against each other so they can't both pass us.

    Blackburn promoted tonight but can still win the league so that game is massive.

    Lets hope Blackburn are out on the lash celebrating
  • LouisMend
    LouisMend Posts: 5,447
    If we win on Saturday and Plymouth lose then that's basically it. We'd have 71 points with +8 GD at least - they'd have 65 with +2 GD at most - leaving them with a maximum of 71 possible points - and a six-goal swing required over their last two.

    (I've not included Scunny in here but they'd of course have to lose against Plymouth for the Pilgrims to catch us if Plymouth lose Saturday but could still win their other two so not included them)
  • Manicmania
    Manicmania Posts: 1,594
    All the talk of teams having nothing to play for being walk-overs - where is the evidence for that? Certainly didn't happen with Bristol Rovers tonight against the (arguably) best team in the division who are fighting for the title.
    - Southend had nothing to play for and turned over a team fighting relegation away from home.
    - In the championship mid-table and safe Notts Forest turned over a relegation battling side.
    - In league two Accrington only needed a point to win the title and lost to mid-table "nothing to play for" Newport tonight.

    And all that on a pretty chilly night 3 days after their last game and yet they obviously still had no trouble getting up for it tonight.

    Also worth noting individual players could have new contracts/potential summer moves to play for as well and it's not necessarily just the team league position that is relevant.
  • happyvalley
    happyvalley Posts: 8,996
    killerandflash said:

    It's a bit sad, but also positive, that Jacko's retirement as a player will have to be forgotten about, we've got no "dead" games left where he can be brought on for 5 minutes of adulation.

    And he's number 2 now, his focus will have to be purely on helping Bowyer with the management of the team.

    Bowyer can bring him on for the last few minutes against Blackburn, (when we are winning comfortably 4-0.
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  • LouisMend
    LouisMend Posts: 5,447
    LouisMend said:

    If we win on Saturday and Plymouth lose then that's basically it. We'd have 71 points with +8 GD at least - they'd have 65 with +2 GD at most - leaving them with a maximum of 71 possible points - and a six-goal swing required over their last two.

    (I've not included Scunny in here but they'd of course have to lose against Plymouth for the Pilgrims to catch us if Plymouth lose Saturday but could still win their other two so not included them)

    If we win Saturday and both Scunny and Plymouth lose then we're golden.
  • el-pietro
    el-pietro Posts: 611
    Lots of talk of our mathematical odds
    Ben Mayhew does this all season long and he fancies our chances
    These are from before tonights games so our odds will only have improved.
    He had us with a better than 75% chance of making it before tonight. Thats surely over 80% now.
    https://experimental361.com/2018/04/22/e-ratings-update-league-1-22-apr-2018/
    https://experimental361.com/2018/04/22/whats-still-possible-22-april-2018/

    I look forward to his next update.
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    If we get 4 points then realistically all of this would have to happen for us NOT to reach the play offs:
    Plymouth would have to win all 3
    Scunny would have to win their other 2 as 1 match would be a defeat to Plymouth

    I'm getting a bit carried away, but if we manage to shock Blackburn and get all 3 Saturday then we have one massive foot there.
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    happyvalley said:

    killerandflash said:

    It's a bit sad, but also positive, that Jacko's retirement as a player will have to be forgotten about, we've got no "dead" games left where he can be brought on for 5 minutes of adulation.

    And he's number 2 now, his focus will have to be purely on helping Bowyer with the management of the team.

    Bowyer can bring him on for the last few minutes against Blackburn, (when we are winning comfortably 4-0.
    Nah I think he should leave it for a last minute penalty winner in the play off final.
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,849
    IF we beat Blackburn we will almost be there

    That's a big ask though. If we draw and then win over Rochdale, we should make the playoffs unless a couple of teams below us produce a stunning series of results
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Even 3 points will require Plymouth to get 7 from 3, something they don't look capable of right now. Rotherham at home and Scunny away aswell, can't see them getting 4 points from that at the minute.

    Anything can happen but the last week has set us up perfectly and for the first time in a long time, it's completely in our own hands.
  • NomadicAddick
    NomadicAddick Posts: 2,114
    Forget Blackburn, forget teams having or not having something to play for. The only thing that mattered tonight was Plymouth dropping points, and they did. Again.
  • philcafc
    philcafc Posts: 3,883
    I think Plymouth have it all to do now to make the Play-Offs. They still have to go to Scunthorpe & Gillingham with a Home game against Rotherham. Scunny have an easier looking finish with Plymouth & Bradford City at home and a visit to virtually relegated MK Dons so they should get the 6 or 7 points they need with their better Goal difference. I think we will almost certainly get there with one more win to get us to 71 Points or possibly even 2 draws to get us to 70 points but I doubt we will finish higher than 6th. At the moment it looks like Us V Shrews & Rotherham V Scunny in the Play-Offs
  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 26,856
    Blackburn will beat us.
  • el-pietro
    el-pietro Posts: 611
    cafcfan1990 said:

    If we get 4 points then realistically all of this would have to happen for us NOT to reach the play offs:
    Plymouth would have to win all 3
    Scunny would have to win their other 2 as 1 match would be a defeat to Plymouth

    I'm getting a bit carried away, but if we manage to shock Blackburn and get all 3 Saturday then we have one massive foot there.

    Definitely want Scunthorpe to beat Plymouth at the moment. If we beat Blackburn things change but right now I'm cheering for Scunthorpe in that game, and everyone who plays Plymouth and Scunthorpe in every other game.
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  • Rob
    Rob Posts: 11,793
    Plymouth have a small squad and key players have been out. Also, including today they have 4 games to play in the last 2 weeks of the season. So, little time to recover. That is huge at this stage of the season.

    It’s a good job we played our games in hand without having to cram them into the final two weeks. Lee Bowyer alluded to this.
  • cafcsinger
    cafcsinger Posts: 5,548
    What do we think of the whole winning the league thing? It's league 1 after all, really doesn't matter much between 1st and 2nd. Or am i in the minority? Regardless Blackburn should be on the piss for a while...
  • Addickted
    Addickted Posts: 19,456
    They are on the lash in Town after Saturdays game.
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,849
    cafcsinger said:

    What do we think of the whole winning the league thing? It's league 1 after all, really doesn't matter much between 1st and 2nd. Or am i in the minority? Regardless Blackburn should be on the piss for a while...

    Finishing second is probably the least memorable promotion.

    Our last 3 promotions have been 2 titles and the playoff final. Those titles to me mean more than if we had come second
  • Manicmania
    Manicmania Posts: 1,594
    cafcsinger said:

    What do we think of the whole winning the league thing? It's league 1 after all, really doesn't matter much between 1st and 2nd. Or am i in the minority? Regardless Blackburn should be on the piss for a while...

    It may not matter in the long run but a lot of players will not get many opportunities to win any kind of medal and silverwear in their career. Also as a fan, for me winning the league is kind of special regardless of which one it is. I don't know if that makes me or you in the minority though! lol
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,766
    edited April 2018
    Goes without saying that the nightmare set of results for us on Saturday would be Plymouth beating Rotherham, Scunthorpe beating MK Dons and us losing to Blackburn.

    The above results would leave us in one of the three positions below going into the last day of the season:

    1) If Scunthorpe beat Plymouth:

    image

    2) If Scunthorpe and Plymouth draw:

    image

    3) If Plymouth beat Scunthorpe:

    image
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,149
    That’s how I see Saturday going
  • seriously_red
    seriously_red Posts: 5,741
    LouisMend said:

    If we win on Saturday and Plymouth lose then that's basically it. We'd have 71 points with +8 GD at least - they'd have 65 with +2 GD at most - leaving them with a maximum of 71 possible points - and a six-goal swing required over their last two.

    (I've not included Scunny in here but they'd of course have to lose against Plymouth for the Pilgrims to catch us if Plymouth lose Saturday but could still win their other two so not included them)

    If we get a result against Blackburn then ALL of our rivals will be thinking WTF?! Bow is uber confident that if we make the play-offs then we will be at Wembley. All to play for!
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,766
    oohaahmortimer said:

    That’s how I see Saturday going

    10.87/1 with Sky if you fancy it...
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,149
    Ive given up gambling thankfully !

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