Plymouth have it all to do to make it. Rochdale have one of the best home records in the division, then they have Scunthorpe and Rotherham. With luck they lose all 3 and our results from now on don’t matter!
I think we want Scunthorpe to beat Plymouth and for Rotherham to do the same. That would mean Plymouth finishing on a max of 70. We would only need one win to surpass that. If we can beat both Blackburn and Rochdale then I think we've made the playoffs with 74 as depending on the Plymouth/Scunthorpe result the max those two can finish on would be Scunthorpe 76 Plymouth 73 or Plymouth 76 Scunthorpe 73. If they draw then the max they can finish on is 74 each and we'd most likely beat Plymouth on GD, and could potentially catch Scunthorpe. I think best case scenario we're playing Shrewsbury. I can't see us finishing 5th. It looks like the Rochdale game is meaningful at least. I was worried I was going to a nothing game!
I think i'd prefer that anyway as they seem to be losing a bit of form at just the wrong time. Would prefer them to Rotherham
Have been saying for weeks (well, since KR buggered off) that we need at least 72 points. Peterborough & Pompey are now out of it (can only get 70 & 69 points respectively and 2 out of us, Scunny & Plymouth will get to that mark). Plymouth are just dropping off at the wrong time (but the right time for us) and I'd rather have the points on the board than games in hand - remember what we were all saying a month ago when we had 2 games over all the teams around us & we thought we were in pole position.
Problem is I don't think we will have any real idea until Scunny play Plymouth on tues 1st, and even then it may all rest on the last game.
Have been saying for weeks (well, since KR buggered off) that we need at least 72 points. Peterborough & Pompey are now out of it (can only get 70 & 69 points respectively and 2 out of us, Scunny & Plymouth will get to that mark). Plymouth are just dropping off at the wrong time (but the right time for us) and I'd rather have the points on the board than games in hand - remember what we were all saying a month ago when we had 2 games over all the teams around us & we thought we were in pole position.
Problem is I don't think we will have any real idea until Scunny play Plymouth on tues 1st, and even then it may all rest on the last game.
I’m certain we will need three points at Rochdale.
Hate to add a cynical view but if Plymouth and Scuuny contrive a draw and win their other games they both reach the play-offs even if we win our last two?
Scunny are the only team that really benefits from a draw though with their goal difference - the scenario you are talking about would leave us all on the same number of points and would require Plymouth to overcome a 4 goal difference to get ahead of us.
Don't think it will come to that though - Either Rochdale or Rotherham will take points off Plymouth (maybe even both if the injury problems are true that Plymouth fans have been talking about)
Hate to add a cynical view but if Plymouth and Scuuny contrive a draw and win their other games they both reach the play-offs even if we win our last two?
Not true.
Plymouth on 74 points Draw to Scunny takes them to 75 Win other game takes them to 78.
We both win our last 2 it goes to Goal Difference we are curretly +7 plymouth +4
The main thing that worries about next weekend is Blackburn HAVE to win if they want to be challenging for the title on May 8th - just hope we don't go into it trying to contain them in the hope of a draw.
would it be better if scunthorpe beat plymouth rather than they draw with each other?
Can't tell until after next Saturdays games. If Plymouth lose their next 2 games then you might want them to beat Scunny. Just be patient. As Blackadder said - there's more twists & turns than a twisty turny thing.
The main thing that worries about next weekend is Blackburn HAVE to win if they want to be challenging for the title on May 8th - just hope we don't go into it trying to contain them in the hope of a draw.
Not necessarily. The top 3 all play this midweek.
What would be ideal is if Wigan win and Blackburn and Shrewsbury both lose. That way Blackburn are promoted but will also be 6 points behind Wigan with a 20 worse goal difference, which means they'll have nothing to play for on saturday.
Rochdale’s home record is poor they have 26pts from 21 games.
Considering they are bottom 4 they have only lost 5 at home in the league all season from those 21 games and 3 of those are Wigan, Blackburn and Rotherham. They have a very good home record.
All about Pompey Blackburn at the moment. As golfie said. That’s our cup final. The other 2 1 are is completely irrelevant at the moment
We have to win on sat becuase if we lose or draw, it will be harder to pick up momentum for the final 2.
Personally I’m thinking if we don’t win Saturday’s game, then it will be the season over. We can I think afford to draw one of the others potentially, but it can’t be Saturday
A couple of amendments. Re: the fully crossed out bit, we just don’t know, so all we can do is play Blackburn like a cup final. It may be that we can go to Rochdale on the final day needing a point, but I wouldn’t want to chance it. I think we need 6 pts
Can't believe how tight it is for the play-off places this season. We've got basically 6 teams (mathematically, Bradford can still do it) still playing for the final 2 play-off spots. Very exciting but I'd rather be in Wigan or Blackburn's shoes right now!
I think 4 points will be enough for us now. That would mean that Scunny would need 5 points from 3 to overtake us, and Plymouth would need 8 from 4. Both possible but I think it's unlikely purely because they are playing each other.
Still going to be tough as both our opponents have something to play for.
If we can keep our heads while others are losing thiers, If we can keep 11 on the pitch and not suffer more injuries. If we can be party poopers for once and not roll over and have our tummies rubbed. If fans can cheer on Cafc whether we are in the lead or behind. If the rub of the green and the fire in our bellies dovetail. Then we can extend our season, to the lands of the play-offs. And what is more you will be a man my son.
Comments
Who's with me?
Problem is I don't think we will have any real idea until Scunny play Plymouth on tues 1st, and even then it may all rest on the last game.
Don't think it will come to that though - Either Rochdale or Rotherham will take points off Plymouth (maybe even both if the injury problems are true that Plymouth fans have been talking about)
Plymouth on 74 points
Draw to Scunny takes them to 75
Win other game takes them to 78.
We both win our last 2 it goes to Goal Difference we are curretly +7 plymouth +4
Blackburn have lost once in the league since October. I personally think we'll do well to get a draw next weekend.
I reckon Bowyer will have them up for it and going for the three points.
What would be ideal is if Wigan win and Blackburn and Shrewsbury both lose. That way Blackburn are promoted but will also be 6 points behind Wigan with a 20 worse goal difference, which means they'll have nothing to play for on saturday.
Rochdale beating Plymouth would be ideal as well.
That would mean that Scunny would need 5 points from 3 to overtake us, and Plymouth would need 8 from 4. Both possible but I think it's unlikely purely because they are playing each other.
Still going to be tough as both our opponents have something to play for.
If we can keep 11 on the pitch and not suffer more injuries.
If we can be party poopers for once and not roll over and have our tummies rubbed.
If fans can cheer on Cafc whether we are in the lead or behind.
If the rub of the green and the fire in our bellies dovetail.
Then we can extend our season, to the lands of the play-offs.
And what is more you will be a man my son.
If, If, If.