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Tour de France (2023 from p54)
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Some good points. Let’s see where he stands by next Friday.ColinTat said:harveys_gardener whilst I love Leroy's posts on cycling, and his knowledge on cycling/racing is fascinating I'm inclined to give Alaphillipe a bit more time. There's little rumour around Allaphilipe or Quick Step.
Firstly the very best classics riders do, have and will compete in Grand Tours. Allaphillipe, Wout van Aert and especially Matt van der Poel have the talent and physiology to do it. They'll need to decide if they dedicate their whole year to a GT and then they'll need a training programme dedicated towards that. If you watched the classics this year you know that Allaphillipe bettered Fugalsang frequently. He has the numbers over Fugalsang, and he has a team that do their TT work: They've won 4 of the last 6/7 World TTTs for ****'s sake.
As for riders who've improved 10% the list is endless:
Froome mid 30's in ITTs, then a jump to 2nd in Vuelta.
Contador almost halfway down the pack to top 10 and top 3 between GT starts.
Indurain 130 in ITT to world class.
Lemond 19th to 2nd in one tour.
You may argue two of those, or three took PEDs. The point is people on their breakthrough tours make massive jumps in their ITTs when chasing GC. Allaphillipe would never have been extended to his max last year because he wasn't riding for GC! Your point is so fallacious, it's beyond thought. The guy's 20/40/60 min watt/weight output, VO2 max would have to be compared, from each season. Not just in race. Just look at Thomas de Gendt's TTs when he goes and when he glides in.
You can't compare an ITT at the end of week 3, where all the protected bigger guys came through as the stage suited them. If you compared Lemond ITT in race when young, he improved massively as he had a phenomenal V02 max that countered the precipitous drop everyone has in haemocaratic in the third week. In stage 13 the smaller gc riders competed, but not pure climbers. A top punchy classics rider had every chance on that stage.
Do I think it's possibble someone's up to something? Sure it's cycling. I stick by Allaphilipe will not make it past the Alps in the third week. If he does something is more likely different. But he's ridden two tours finished around 30, shown well in the mountains. Oh and in one ITT in his first tour he finished within seconds of Thomas, in the third week. Was that unacceptable?
Whilst I recognise Leroy's opinion but want a little more fact, forgive me Harvey if your lack of forensic analysis just has no substance. Let me enjoy this Tour like it's 2006, and put my Kimmage glasses on afterwards. At least print press will have a bit more fact checking if something comes out.
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@harveys_gardener ......As his detailed response to your post demonstrates, colin_tat has , for the last decade, been one of the 2 or 3 most knowledgable posters on this forum when it comes to all matters pertaining to cycle racing and the grand tours. Perhaps you have not followed previous cycling threads? If you have it seems quite extraordinary to suggest he sticks to posting on football threads.harveys_gardener said:Colin, great to read a post from you again but stick to football. In a strength endurance sport at elite level, nobody makes a 10% improvement within a year by losing a couple of kilos or improved training.0 -
Colin I take on board your comments, but again you are highlighting performance, helped by teams over a tour. He has Jeane without much team input. He has not been saving himself for the TT. I am talking about a 10% improvement on a single discipline lasting 30 minutes in a year by a person who has been well behind Thomas for a decade It is not natural.0
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Red, I am late to cycling after doing cycle speedway in my teens, but I was competing in in elite strength/endurance events for 25 years up to late 40s. I have National Championship medals. Sport Science was not on the menu when I competed but a 10% performance improvement from a high plateau is impossible.0
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That is interesting to know and demonstrates you post with a degree of knowledge many of us don’t have. However, my main point is that I find it strange that you should suggest that someone who has demonstrated on countless occasions an expert level of knowledge about the sport of cycling should stick to football. I am not suggesting you or anyone else have to accept every opinion he expresses on the sport. It just came across as a bit rude. Were you not aware he is one of the experts on this subject on this forum?harveys_gardener said:Red, I am late to cycling after doing cycle speedway in my teens, but I was competing in in elite strength/endurance events for 25 years up to late 40s. I have National Championship medals. Sport Science was not on the menu when I competed but a 10% performance improvement from a high plateau is impossible.0 -
Not with the gear I've got in my fridge.harveys_gardener said:Red, I am late to cycling after doing cycle speedway in my teens, but I was competing in in elite strength/endurance events for 25 years up to late 40s. I have National Championship medals. Sport Science was not on the menu when I competed but a 10% performance improvement from a high plateau is impossible.
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Apologies to Colin if I was unaware he was an expert contributor to the cycling thread. I am a relative novice.He is certainly a font of knowledge on football. But if anyone has technical knowledge on cycling, they have not given any reasonable explanation for the improvement of Allaphilipe.0
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My forensic mapping of this years Tour is based entirely on a similar model used by @PeanutsMolloy for the Grand National and it clearly pointed to Allaphillipe being a strong outsider to win the current Tour.
I'm currently working on the algorithms for the Vuelta and will produce my analysis 10 days before it commences. However I do require confirmation if any of the Belgian possibilities will be on his bike by then.
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Sorry Addicted but again we are not talking about the three week tour but a single TT where has had made an unexplained 10% improvement.0
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To be fair he has won the Strade Bianche, the Milan-San Remo and the Flèche Wallonne this year.
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Were they 30 minute time trials? I'm not a cycling enthusiast.0
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No, no, no. He was 2-3 places behind Thomas in an ITT in his first ever tour: interestingly in the 3rd week. He was not a protected gc rider. He does not ride many ITTs. That was 2015. He's been a pro for 5 years, Thomas for 10. Thomas loves riding classics, but he is nowhere near the class in classics of Alaphillipe. This does more than suggest that Alaphillipe's watt output proportionally for his size is higher than Thomas's has ever been during the Classic season, and his kick is out of sight. If he reduced weight and kept power, there is every reason to believe he could beat Thomas on rolling terrain in an ITT. On the flat probably not.
The riders I mentioned were the best of their generation and it was nearly all improvement from one tour to the next. Contador's improvement was a huge surprise to all at the time. Lance went from around 50th to 1st prologue either side of his cancer: I didn't use this for obvious reasons, but his improvement was not solely down to epo or testosterone, he was using peds before but now was solely concerned with gc not stages or day races.
I mentioned their improvements in time trials, not their associated improvements in gc. They improved physiologically for cycling, but much through the belief they could and were challenging gc. They and many others gained 10% in ITTs, not just because of physiological gains or technical improvements but because they had a purpose to ride.
Do I fully believe Allaphilipe's gains? No. But you pose the question in the context of cycling. And his improvements are possible, when you consider that for cycling he's hitting his peak years and now his priorities and belief are changing. If he rode the World ITTs we'd have a better benchmark to judge. But you simply can't compare an ITT in 2018 where he'd already exceeded his goals and had nothing to ride for.1 -
It's a good point. Until now Alaphilippe hasn't really nailed an ITT, and the course suited him. It's also fair to say that there's a lot of nonsense being put out there about his TT times being shit, when most TTs in grand tours are only ever nailed by the specialists or those looking not to lose time on GC (so not a fair comparison). It wasn't so much the TT itself, as the fact he put time into Thomas (and everyone else) on the flat section, and when he finished he jumped off and looked like he was pulling shapes on the fucking dance floor (before someone from the team car presumably had a little word in his ear over the radio and he 'collapsed' 😒)
Then yesterday was frankly ridiculous. He was clearly told not to go after Pinot by his DS because if he'd won the stage it would have looked even more outrageous. Put simply, he is NOT a mountain specialist. Nobody all of a sudden goes from being a classics rider, obliterating the field with ease at Strade Bianche, winning the sprint at MSR, winning Fleche Wallone, dicking all over everyone at La Doyenne, then grinding GC contenders like Thomas, Uran, Landa, Mollema and everyone else into dust within four months. It. Just. Doesn't. Happen.
I don't buy into the uci/aso conspiracy shit. This is just a rider who's glowing a bit too much and won't be reigned in by his team. Eventually it'll go pop somewhere because you can't keep a lid on this shit forever.
At least its better than watching Skineos throttle the life out of the tour again though. And I'd love to see Pinot win it if someone forgets to give LouLou the right bottle today and he collapses.
Just wish the French press would start calling this out as suspicious... And note that Jalabert hasn't said a fucking thing... 🙄
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Does Allaphillipe have any TUEs?1
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I’m not a font of all knowledge of course, but always worth remembering is that only those going for the GC or the stage win are truly busting a gut on the ITT. It’s an ideal opportunity for a ‘rest’ for the others. Last year Alaphilippe had no interest in the GC, so improving by 10% would be easy. His interest was the polka dot jersey last year, so it suited him to rest up on stages where there were few points up for grabs, or once the climbing points had been hoovered up on a stage. GC riders can’t afford to do that.harveys_gardener said:Apologies to Colin if I was unaware he was an expert contributor to the cycling thread. I am a relative novice.He is certainly a font of knowledge on football. But if anyone has technical knowledge on cycling, they have not given any reasonable explanation for the improvement of Allaphilipe.
What is unknown is how long he can stay competitive in the pursuit of the GC. So far he’s looking good.
But like @Leroy Ambrose I wish he’d looked more shagged out after his ITT.0 -
Very few riders, even less clean ones, can destroy the best gc riders in the world in an ITT and a big climb on consecutive days.
I get the point he wasn't flat out in the ITT last year but we are 2 weeks into the tour and he looks as fresh as a daisy. He hasn't been protected like Froome for example.
In grand tour terms he has come from nowhere. If he was British the French press and fans would be giving him dogs abuse. I would love to believe its all above board, I just can't.2 -
IndeedCafc43v3r said:Very few riders, even less clean ones, can destroy the best gc riders in the world in an ITT and a big climb on consecutive days.
I get the point he wasn't flat out in the ITT last year but we are 2 weeks into the tour and he looks as fresh as a daisy. He hasn't been protected like Froome for example.
In grand tour terms he has come from nowhere. If he was British the French press and fans would be giving him dogs abuse. I would love to believe its all above board, I just can't.1 -
Regardless of the, is he or isn't he debate and for what it's worth I think if it's too good to be true , it's probably assisted. It's really been a great Tour so far.3
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Agreed, it’s been a good oneHorsfield9 said:Regardless of the, is he or isn't he debate and for what it's worth I think if it's too good to be true , it's probably assisted. It's really been a great Tour so far.1 -
I take on board that A's ITT last year could have been poor due to lack of interest, but someone please publish some stats to show he has ever done a decent ITT.0
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Results over the last four years for Julian; first one being where he came in the TT, second one being where he finished overall in said competitionharveys_gardener said:I take on board that A's ITT last year could have been poor due to lack of interest, but someone please publish some stats to show he has ever done a decent ITT.
2019Dauphine; 7th | 35thTirreno-Adriatico: 61st | 6thVuelta a San Juan: 1st | 2nd2018Tour de France: 58th | 33rdItzulia Basque: 8th | 35thParis-Nice: 3rd | 18thAbu Dhabi Tour: 13th | 18th2017Vuelta: 32nd | 67thParis-Nice: 1st | 5th2016Tour de France: 28th | 41stTour of California: 8th | 1st0 -
Thanks Forever. Any idea who were the 3 behind him in the two he won ? Otherwise those stats are pretty damning. Total guess, but I doubt Wiggins was outside top four in any ITT.0
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Wiggins ITTs were all over the place in early Grand Tours, generally way down. He had good results in the 07 Tour. Checkout procyclingstats for results of previous years.0
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harveys_gardener said:Thanks Forever. Any idea who were the 3 behind him in the two he won ? Otherwise those stats are pretty damning.0
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Sorry but Wiggins was a track cyclist in 2007. Didn't join Sky until 2010. Stop confusing the issue with your greater knowledge of cycling!!!0
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Well done Yatesey0
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Movistar have badly screwed up their tactics over the last two days ... they don’t really seem to know who to support.0
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It’s not damning at all. It really doesn’t work like that. When it meant something he won, when it didn’t he finished way down. It’s called reserving your energy.harveys_gardener said:Thanks Forever. Any idea who were the 3 behind him in the two he won ? Otherwise those stats are pretty damning. Total guess, but I doubt Wiggins was outside top four in any ITT.0 -
After dropping off, a strong finish by G.
Pinot is making this a hell of a race, so close at the top.
Buchmann and Kruisjwick likely to stay up there too.
Egan showing a lot of class for his age.1 -
That’s one of the best stages of recent years. Brilliant racing, Alaphilippe cracked, Thomas bounced back, superb from S. Yates and Pinot. Superb.5
