greatest show on turf Cheltenham 2021

Addickforlife said:

johnnybev1987 said:

CroydonAddick1 said:

Why not lay off a portion on the exchange? Currently trading at 1.52, so laying it for 100k would mean he'd either win 95k after commission if it loses, or just over 459k if he wins. Obviously could tweak those values to what he was comfortable with. Will be enough liquidity in the market as well, given 820k has already been traded on EA for tomorrow - just the small matter of having a spare 50 grand lying about as liability, or having a few mates who can help!

I am not sure your average punter/ person would have that disposable to offset/lay off. 

As cool as it is, its already life changing so for that reason i am cashing out. This is from someone who rarely/ if ever cashes out, but a completely different ball game. Anything can happen, fall, unseated horse, there is no guarantees , even more factors in horse racing than say football for an example.

He had 20k in his betting account on that bet slip so think he must be more from just an average punted

Fair, i looked yesterday as saw it go round. Cant remember seeing whats in his account if im honest, my mistake. Still ridiculous money to let ride out even if they are millionaire imo 

My bets today, not confident, yesterday recovered a little on the last race, overall week still up a bit but not going as hard now. 

1:20 - Chatham Street lad - Purely odds , needs to be 2nd-4th today sky, but feel it has a chance. Wont win but still
1:55 - The Boss Oscar win, Sky doing 7 places as previously mentioned so ew Copperhead 33/1 

Be lucky all, horses/jokeys be safe! hope its a good day at the races.

Great day yesterday. Today looks very very tough. Deepest Ryanair I can recall even without the non runners.

13:20 - Envoi Allen obviously should win - no bet at those odds. The opposition is much better than Monkfish faced yesterday, including genuine track form. I have a sneaky feeling he could get turned over.

13:55 - always a horrible race to pick, Imperial Alcazar and The Bosses Oscar look worthy market leaders but in the end I went for Mrs Milner at 14/1 ew from a price angle.

14:30 - I backed Saint Calvados thought he was remarkable value at 12/1 - the form from the 2020 Ryanair looks unbelievable with Frodon and A Plus Tard putting in seriously big runs this season up in trip. I would be most interested in Mister Fisher of those remaining but I won't be going back in now.

15:05 - The Storyteller ew at 12/1 - toss up between him and Sire Du Burlais based on their past form, I can't see why The Storyteller is double the price. I also can't see why Fury Road is being backed out of sight after a pretty unimpressive season - he's been beaten by 4 of this field already. He might well come on but the price is totally unwarranted.

15:40 - Sully Doc 25/1 and Happy Diva 20/1 ew - Sully Doc looks laid out to me and his price has halved since I backed him on Monday. Happy Diva has great course form.

16:15 - Telmesomethinggirl 14/1 ew - Price has tumbled since Heaven Help Us bolted up yesterday, good form line and also stable and jockey have had a pretty good week!

16:40 - Shantou Flyer 14/1 ew - again, predominantly based on record at the track where he hasn't been out of the frame.

4.50 storm control 16/1 

Day Three thoughts. Some huge races today and it's tough for the punters I would say. Sorry for the lateness btw - job interview this morning.

1.20 - Envoi Allen wins this doing handstands I think. But, with three places on offer, it would be rude not to avail ourselves of an each-way shout. I think we're best off trying to find a place with a horse that absolutely pings his fences from the front, and who will appeal on the ground, and that is Shan Blue (1pt EW @ 11/1 with 365 and Betfair, 1/5 odds 1-3, 10/1 generally). Chantry House (stays well, jumps well) and Chatham Street Lad (great course form but on Soft), in that order, I'd have next preference.

1.55 - Twenty-two runners and you'll get six or seven places with many a bookie. There are so many live chances: again, throw a dart at the card. I'll be siding with two horses strongest at the finish in the double digit prices: Storm Goddess (0.5pts EW @ 16/1 with Skybet, 1/5 odds 1-7), and Brinkley (0.5pts EW @ 14/1 Skybet). The latter is unexposed, but has risen in the weights and has never raced on better than soft I don't think, while the former was strong at a 2m5f finish and will have appreciated the jumpers' bumper run. Honestly though, so many to make a case for. Spiritofthegames likes Cheltenham; Imperial Alcazar is rightly favourite; Champagne Platinum looks solid; etc etc.

2.30 - So you're getting four or five places on offer with a few bookies here. Betfair and Sky offer five (which is huge! only 11 runners), but the odds are accordingly short. I also think this is a very well-priced race. I'll side with one horse, who likes Cheltenham, despite a string of seconds, in Melon (1pt EW @ 7/1, 1-4 generally - not five places as odds too short with those books). It's such a wide open race though and you can make a case for every runner in the field. If Min was even 6/1 I'd be tipping him now; Allaho is a bit too short; Fakir D'Oudairies seems similar. I like Imperial Aura each way - seems to almost exactly fit the Ryanair profile - but just shaded out by Melon for me.

3.05 - I love the Stayer's but the market is too well priced for me to have a dart. Paisley Park would be a wonderful returning winner after last year's atrial fibrillation, and I hope he does it, but it's too short a price today. Fury Road will have been targeted at The Festival (as with all of the GE runners), while I don't understand why Flooring Porter is twice the price of Sire Du Berlais (both should be relatively close). Reserve Tank might run a massive race at a price with drying ground. No bet

3.40 - Absolutely brutal race to pick IMO. The Shunter, if he wins this, wins a £100k bonus I think, so is gonna be primed and ready. But 5/2 about the favourite in a 22-runner race? No thank you. I'll have a dart at two in the 20s region: Dead Right (0.5pts EW @ 28/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 Betfair), who goes well fresh, is on a low weight, and is unexposed; and also Paddy's Poem (0.5pts EW @ 25/1, 1/5 1-6 Skybet, similar terms around), who hasn't finished outside the top 3 in his chases, is 2lb well-in under a penalty, and could outrun that price. So many chances again.

4.15 - Not a race I know anywhere near enough about. Would tentatively suggest Hook Up taking her last run at face value but absolutely not one for me this. I'll give a half-formed opinion though, if you like. No bet

4.50 - Another race where we could see anything. Only one choice in this one and that's Milanford (0.5pts EW @ 16/1, 1/5 odds 1-6 with Skybet), whose handicap mark looks beatable on debut. Loves hitting the crossbar but there's a lot to be said for consistency. Plan of Attack ran fairly well in this last year but 8/1 is too short now. Lots of other shouts - again, ask me.

All in all I've found this a tough day to pick apart. Hopefully I've found a couple of gems though.

SUMMARY:

1.20 - 1pt EW Shan Blue @ 11/1
1.55 - 0.5pts EW Storm Goddess @ 16/1; 0.5pts EW Brinkley @ 14/1
2.30 - 1pt EW Melon @ 7/1
3.05 - No bet
3.40 - 0.5pts EW Dead Right @ 28/1; 0.5pts EW Paddy's Poem @ 25/1
4.15 - No bet
4.50 - 0.5pts EW Milanford @ 16/1

Staked 9pts

Anyone else think Jazz Home Studio would be a brilliant name for a horse?

MrOneLung said:

Anyone else think Jazz Home Studio would be a brilliant name for a horse?

CL syndicate?

OMG Well done that punter!!!!

What on earth was Skelton doing there?

Addick Addict said:

There's one in the first that I am struggling to get away from. Today could be the day that Asterion Forlonge fulfils his true potential. I would like to think that Mullins wouldn't send it to Cheltenham knowing its issues without thinking that it would run a meaningful race.

Taken the 25/1 (EW) and have it in a F/C to come 2nd to Envoi Allen as well as in the W/Fav market.

Thanks @Addick Addict
It was your post that stood out for some reason and got 22/1.
Did it on skybet so might also get the win part back as part of the first race offer.

CAFCsayer said:

Blown up 7 bets for me, brilliant

Probably 95%  of itv7 too, not quite the same i know  
unlucky mate proper sore one i bet

paulbaconsarnie said:

Addick Addict said:

There's one in the first that I am struggling to get away from. Today could be the day that Asterion Forlonge fulfils his true potential. I would like to think that Mullins wouldn't send it to Cheltenham knowing its issues without thinking that it would run a meaningful race.

Taken the 25/1 (EW) and have it in a F/C to come 2nd to Envoi Allen as well as in the W/Fav market.

Thanks @Addick Addict
It was your post that stood out for some reason and got 22/1.
Did it on skybet so might also get the win part back as part of the first race offer.

Thanks though it wouldn't have been placed if EA had stood up. Still he ran a decent race and definitely something to build on.

I banked on EA in the Placepot with at least three in all the other races so haven't been that clever - will probably have one placed in every race now and be somewhat sick that I didn't include Asterion!

johnnybev1987 said:

WelshAddick said:

Well happy I used the sky £10 bet on chantry house. Great start to the day. 

nice one, i literally went too but then changed last minute to Chatham, purely for the name (where i play pool sometimes) ruing

I always do the 2nd fav in these sky offers. It often comes in. 

MrOneLung said:

Gotta have a bet on Mrs Milner in the 2nd purely because it is my wife !!!

Don’t tell her.

FFS left in drafts