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Grand National 2025

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Comments

  • bobmunrobobmunro
    Shantreusse for me in the Topham.
  • oldblokeoldbloke
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Given that, no matter how much water they put on the track, it just keeps quickening during the day, and will do so again tomorrow, I'd be shocked if I Am Maximus starts favourite tomorrow. It should (and I think will) be Hewick.
    And Royal Pagaille surely a NR for one.
  • PaddyP17PaddyP17
    Plumping with Soul Icon and Lounge Lizard.

    The latter first got my curiosity as Lizard Lounge is where I spent too many student nights in Bristol, but also looks to actually have a live chance in this race imo. Was fine over these fences two years ago I think...
  • PeanutsMolloyPeanutsMolloy
    If you took the Group to Finish bet, well done.
    The ground is very much our buddy.
    22 of 29 finished in the Foxhunters yesterday and 23 of 30 just finished in the Topham (average 76.3%).
  • oldblokeoldbloke
    edited April 4
    5m22.33  that's the second fastest topham ever.

    above time taken off TV which stopped at that on crossing line -  official time 5m 23.72 the 3rd fastest....mmm
  • PeanutsMolloyPeanutsMolloy
    edited April 4
    Bluffers Guide to the 2025 Grand National - the final chapter:


    DUFFLE COAT

    Is nailed on to win:
    • Was running well as 12-00 top weight when BD 2 out in Nov chase over 30f at last months’s Festival on GS
    • Loves Good ground; close 2nd in July’s Galway Plate
    • 8yo, 2nd season chaser - the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
    Has no chance because:
    • Wild Risk appears nowhere in his pedigree: 134 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31.4% of fields), producing zero winners
    • Trainer Gordon Elliott is in poor form: only 2 winners from 42 runs in past 14 days
    • spookily, another horse called Duffle Coat ran in Red Rum's record-breaking 3rd GN victory in 1977, carrying 10-04, just as this Duffle Coat will tomorrow. His namesake running in 1977 fell at the first fence.

    That's it folks.

    34 of them nailed on.
    And 34 of them with no chance.

    Enjoy!!
  • StarryNightStarryNight
    cheers, PM!
    we'll see if he'll make it over the first fence!   ;)
  • RobinKeepsBobbinRobinKeepsBobbin
    No virtual National again this year. Surely they should make it. Especially considering the amount of utter shite on television now.
  • ValleyGaryValleyGary
    RobinKeepsBobbin said:
    No virtual National again this year. Surely they should make it. Especially considering the amount of utter shite on television now.
    Nice money earner for charity as well.
  • Off_itOff_it
    Right, @PeanutsMolloy old chap - am just about to sort my bets out, so where we going then?

    Cheers
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  • Off_itOff_it
    cafcpolo said:
    Off_it said:
    Right, @PeanutsMolloy old chap - am just about to sort my bets out, so where we going then?

    Cheers
    Lazy bastard, trawl through the other 13 pages and figure it out like the rest of us  ;)
    I mean, I did have a look at a few pages ........ but have you actually read some of this old guff?! ;-)
  • IdleHansIdleHans
    Off_it said:
    cafcpolo said:
    Off_it said:
    Right, @PeanutsMolloy old chap - am just about to sort my bets out, so where we going then?

    Cheers
    Lazy bastard, trawl through the other 13 pages and figure it out like the rest of us  ;)
    I mean, I did have a look at a few pages ........ but have you actually read some of this old guff?! ;-)
    Every damned word. And really enjoyed it.
  • PeanutsMolloyPeanutsMolloy
    No worries @Off_it
    Prices have tightened a lot but my model ranks them like this:
    1. Kandoo Kid
    2. Iroko
    3. Vanillier
    4. Minella Cocooner
    5. Senior Chief
    6. Intense Raffles
    Not much separates the top 5 - all fine on the ground.
    Cheers
  • Gary PooleGary Poole
    Haven’t posted on here in ages, but thanks @PeanutsMolloy for passing on your insight and showing your workings. I find it all fascinating.

    Following your posts a few years ago got me back into the Grand National something I had never really enjoyed since my dad died many years ago.

    I’ve backed your top six so fingers crossed for some luck to everyone and the horses
  • PeanutsMolloyPeanutsMolloy
    Cheers @Gary Poole
    Much appreciated.
    I’m glad you enjoy the thread and enjoy the race again.
    All the best.
  • Off_itOff_it
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    No worries @Off_it
    Prices have tightened a lot but my model ranks them like this:
    1. Kandoo Kid
    2. Iroko
    3. Vanillier
    4. Minella Cocooner
    5. Senior Chief
    6. Intense Raffles
    Not much separates the top 5 - all fine on the ground.
    Cheers
    Cheers mate, much appreciated. 

    Time to raid the piggy bank and get out my old pesetas from the jar on the shelf.
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